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Elizabeth Cluppins posted:The security benefits don't justify institutional racism and a society perpetually split across ethnic lines. if anything, that's exactly the kind of approach that facilitates hostility and leads to increased probability of the targeted ethnicity to either lash out or go looking for support anywhere they can find it if we forget about it being absolutely vile for a sec and look at it purely from a realpolitik position
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Jan 25, 2022 14:26
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https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-alexei-navalny-national-terrorist-extremist-list/quote:“Alexei Navalny, Lyubov Sobol, Vyacheslav Gimadi, Georgy Alburov, Ruslan Shaveddinov were put on the list of terrorists and extremists,” Navalny’s team announced on Telegram. Seven more of Navalny’s former regional coordinators and staff members were also added to the list.
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Jan 25, 2022 14:39
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Truga posted:i agree, but also in 2008 NATO leadership could have said "see, russians keep saying they'd be real mad if we really took you in" and then kept doing nothing instead of going all "oh yeah, sure, we're definitely letting you in *wink wink nudge nudge*" every few years and then doing absolutely nothing anyway. that's the real headscratcher to me. if ukraine was in nato by 2014 none of this bullshit would fly either, but nope, gotta string them along. wtf? i think NATO and its members are reluctant to have their decision-making hemmed in by outside states (as any state does) and doesn't want russia to see that it can get what it wants by bullying of its neighbors. because, at that point, the view is that it's just encouraging more aggression. like, the context of 2008 was putin telling the Alliance that "Ukraine wasn't a real country" that would not be allowed to make its own decisions and Russia launching DDoS attacks on the Baltics. it then immediately followed up the 2008 summit by invading georgia. there was very little possibility of any NATO member doing much when any overture would have seemingly legitimized those actions and fed into propaganda. like, russia has legitimate security concerns but i don't see how any of its foreign policy is allaying those concerns. every attack just further constrains the political space where any kind of agreement could be made. E: i also forgot that, in 2008, NATO did explicitly decline to offer ukraine or georgia entry to the Membership Action Plan, which was seen as a large victory for Russia at the time and a sign that neither state would be in NATO any time soon. the fact that that decision was followed up by the invasion of georgia was probably not great for further negotiation. QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 14:44 on Jan 25, 2022 |
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Jan 25, 2022 14:40
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mobby_6kl posted:Uhh I don't know about that, it's the older people who would remember the Russians rolling into their countries on tanks Depends which country. Poland was invaded by Russians in 1939 - my grandparents were kids and came of age after World War 2, so Russian-ran Poland was their reality. Now had they been born in Hungary, they'd live through the 1956 invasion, so their take might have been different. And if my parent would live in Czechoslovakia in 1968, I imagine their outlook would have been different, too.
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Jan 25, 2022 14:43
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Elizabeth Cluppins posted:The security benefits don't justify institutional racism and a society perpetually split across ethnic lines. But for some reason it doesn't find a way to countries above a certain size or ones that aren't directly adjacent or can actually defend themselves. They're also not going against Norway, for example, because that was never part of the USSR or has a meaningful ethnic Russian population. I'm not saying that what Latvia does is right or the only possible solution, but Russia follows a tortured logic and I can see why a country doesn't want to play into it.
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Jan 25, 2022 14:47
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If Ukraine itself is saying there’s no invasion on the way whys everyone acting like the Russians are crossing the fulda gap
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Jan 25, 2022 14:52
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Al-Saqr posted:If Ukraine itself is saying there’s no invasion on the way whys everyone acting like the Russians are crossing the fulda gap mo money for raytheon, op
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Jan 25, 2022 14:54
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Al-Saqr posted:If Ukraine itself is saying there’s no invasion on the way whys everyone acting like the Russians are crossing the fulda gap I suspect there's an element of Western MFAs still reeling a bit from the experience of Afghanistan last year and having a policy of getting non-essentials out earlier rather than later. e: also Danilov said that there's no indication of an invasion in the next 24 hours, which is not quite the same thing as what you are suggesting he said Alchenar fucked around with this message at 15:05 on Jan 25, 2022 |
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Jan 25, 2022 15:00
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Edit: This sounds less ominous than the previous version: https://twitter.com/jeromestarkey/status/1485930483129421835
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Jan 25, 2022 15:03
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Alchenar posted:e: also Danilov said that there's no indication of an invasion in the next 24 hours, which is not quite the same thing as what you are suggesting he said Ah ok sorry I didn’t realize he said 24 hours, but overall the Ukrainians seem to be castigating the west for panic mongering and withdrawing embassy staff
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Jan 25, 2022 15:07
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Al-Saqr posted:Ah ok sorry I didn’t realize he said 24 hours, but overall the Ukrainians seem to be castigating the west for panic mongering and withdrawing embassy staff It looks like the Ukrainian position is 'right now Russia is trying to destabilise us by holding a gun to our heads but not quite being ready to pull the trigger, you pulling people out of the country is unhelpful because it might create a panic which would be destabilising'. 24 hours sounds like a worst case 'Russia goes for a lightning war with what it has now' warning period, most people I'm following on twitter seem to think we'll get 1-2 weeks of very obvious personnel movements and distribution of ordinance etc if Putin gives the go order.
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Jan 25, 2022 15:15
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Sinteres posted:Edit: This sounds less ominous than the previous version: I hope they activate the sleeper Russians soon so I don't have to go to work tomorrow. Come on already 
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Jan 25, 2022 15:17
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A lot of people think Russia won't gently caress with China's Olympics by launching an invasion until they're over, which seems like a long drat time to just sit on the border looming ominously, but who knows. 
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Jan 25, 2022 15:17
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What’s the spring/summer like in Ukraine weather wise since a warm muddy winter would’ve apparently made a russian invasion harder
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Jan 25, 2022 15:19
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If the international response and foreign military aid doesn't die down, I expect that Russia might claim that the military buildup was just a very realistic military exercise. Ukraine gets to stay only partially occupied, Russia gets to claim unjustified European aggression and mock the recent military aid for internal propaganda purposes.
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Jan 25, 2022 15:26
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Al-Saqr posted:If Ukraine itself is saying there’s no invasion on the way whys everyone acting like the Russians are crossing the fulda gap US says Russia might invade, and in context of Russia-NATO talks, it may look like Russia's ultimatum is predicated on that hypothetical invasion. On top of that Russia's moved ~100k soldiers closer to Ukraine's borders (long after the initial US warning about it). Why US pushes that narrative probably has something to do with internal politics. Maybe when Russia ultimately doesn't go for an open invasion and just continues its occupation of Crimea and covert support of LDNR separatists, this can be sold domestically as a diplomatic victory for America.
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Jan 25, 2022 15:49
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And arguably it would be one
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Jan 25, 2022 15:50
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Al-Saqr posted:If Ukraine itself is saying there’s no invasion on the way whys everyone acting like the Russians are crossing the fulda gap Because for the most part: Russia is already in Ukraine. They have been caught directly with forces in Donbass. The crossing already happened but Russia is playing a long game here but the goal is the same one it was in 2008: Ukraine is not an independent country and Russia should have veto or control over it. The building is just the next step.
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Jan 25, 2022 16:04
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Western media outlets are uncontrolled and dependent on clicks. Hysterics generate traffic, which is a downside of this system, but still outweighs the cons from having an autocratic media landscape. It plays into Putin's hand, though, because he can manipulate western media easily, cause fear in western populations, which then exert pressure on western governments to negotiate with Russia to avert a war.
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Jan 25, 2022 16:07
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Pretty decent UK Parliamentary Defence committee hearing going on right now: https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/64d86212-ba5f-40cc-bf31-fe7f2a350844
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Jan 25, 2022 16:12
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Sinteres posted:A lot of people think Russia won't gently caress with China's Olympics again by launching an invasion until they're over, which seems like a long drat time to just sit on the border looming ominously, but who knows. ftfy given that they already did it once, why not do it twice?
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Jan 25, 2022 17:53
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https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1485985469091483655
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Jan 25, 2022 18:00
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Seems like Croatian infighting more than anything else, though TASS and the troll farm latched onto it immediately
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Jan 25, 2022 18:10
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This is wrong. President of Croatia declared that he won't send troops to Ukraine. And president and PM are in the middle of a slapfight about who can order troops. Of course, our president claims that ouster of Yanukovich was a "American and EU-sponsored coup" and says that there has to be an agreement that takes "russian security interests seriously". And I voted for the guy god damnit I'm an idiot
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Jan 25, 2022 18:16
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GaussianCopula posted:ftfy There was a scoop from the Washington post I think saying that Xi told Putin not to start a war during the Olympics. The russian MFA spokesperson wrote a long rambling post denying it which means it's 100% true
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Jan 25, 2022 18:19
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Kyiv having a normal one today https://twitter.com/muradgazdiev/status/1485984341423448071?s=21 https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1486000322904535044?s=20 https://twitter.com/SergUA63/status/1485987066051796992?s=20
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Jan 25, 2022 18:36
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FishBulbia posted:Kyiv having a normal one today It would not surprise me in the least if these guys are getting stirred up by Russian actors. Russia did that with Donbass during the insurgency. Caveat: Its a hypothesis, I have zero evidence for or against this current event.
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Jan 25, 2022 18:45
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It's a rebellion of entrepaneurs lol Burn tires and send Putin fliers (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 25, 2022 19:03
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Don't know about the armed people, but small business owners have been protesting almost non-stop for years now. Regulations that the government tries to enact are part of the deal with IMF, but profit margins are so thin for small business that even fairly common sense regulations may ruin many of them completely.
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Jan 25, 2022 19:07
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getting so mad about the tax rate so you just squeeze one off into the window of the building across from the security service
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Jan 25, 2022 19:10
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CommieGIR posted:It would not surprise me in the least if these guys are getting stirred up by Russian actors. Russia did that with Donbass during the insurgency. I was about to make a joke about how the US media will bend over backwards to make a tax protest about "RUSSIAN SLEEPER AGENTS!!" but you beat me to it
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Jan 25, 2022 19:34
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Small business Ukrainians want to invite big Russia in to protect are property.
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Jan 25, 2022 19:36
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Alchenar posted:This uh 'muslims are more attracted to violence than christian Europeans' take you have there might be one you want to take away and rethink for a bit. Alchenar posted:Regardless of our origins, I think we would all appreciate it if posters did the minimum bar of 'check wikipedia' before posting takes like 'the russian and ukranian orthodox churches don't appear to be in conflict or anything as far as I know'. Please be careful about how precisely you are paraphrasing other posters' arguments.
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Jan 25, 2022 19:49
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Sinteres posted:Edit: This sounds less ominous than the previous version: This is pretty much just reconnaissance, no?
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Jan 25, 2022 19:53
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:I was about to make a joke about how the US media will bend over backwards to make a tax protest about "RUSSIAN SLEEPER AGENTS!!" but you beat me to it No, this is based on the fact that during the Donbass incursion there was OSINT showing that Russia was using FSB agents and grounds to help stir up trouble to help justify further incursions elsewhere. Not saying the entire tax protest is that, but given what is going on right now with Russia's goals with Ukraine, it would neither be unusual nor uncommon.
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Jan 25, 2022 19:57
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Eastern Europe: Olivier's offensive Eastern Europe: The mayonnaise sphere of influence
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Jan 25, 2022 20:08
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I'm not saying Russia is involved in these protests but... They'd have to be stupid not to be. It's a great way to back up their claims about how everything sucks unlike in Russia.
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Jan 25, 2022 20:12
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mobby_6kl posted:I'm not saying Russia is involved in these protests but... They'd have to be stupid not to be. It's a great way to back up their claims about how everything sucks unlike in Russia. Pretty much. Especially if you can get some guys with guns to show up. Again, caveat: I have nothing right now to support my claims, but its a pretty common tactic for modern invading armies.
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Jan 25, 2022 20:21
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CNN has already ceded Kharkiv to Russia.
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Jan 25, 2022 20:32
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https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/arzemes/ukraina-zino-par-krievijas-veidotas-diversantu-grupas-likvidesanu.a440499/ Our media are reporting Ukrainian authorities claiming to have eliminated a diversion group working on series of attacks against cities’ infrastructure in border regions. Supposedly, two guys were recruiting Russian speakers with history of violent crime into fake security firms in Kharkiv and Zhytomyr.
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Jan 25, 2022 20:54
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