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Sinteres posted:Okay but my original question was saying once you've decided Putin is evil and is going to invade, would there have been anything worth offering as a concession to avoid it. If you don't think so, you can just say that. Again: Putin made his demands largely public. None of them are even remotely negotiable. And that was by design. You are reaching for a concession that doesn't exist or Putin doesn't want.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:49
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:the FSB literally tried to assassinate a russian dissident in such a way that a british citizen died as collateral damage in middle-of-nowhere britain. Almost the exact scenario you described as a strawman literally occurred. I was about to say: Brown Moses has multiple good posts on Bellingcat about tracking of FSB teams who are, quite literally, murdering dissidents in places like the UK and Germany. Flavahbeast posted:If anything actually does happen I think the nato countries should be to call Putin an rear end in a top hat and cancel his pipeline. Let Sweden and Finland join if they want to. Give Zelensky whatever aid he requests short of direct military involvement Most of Ukraine/Poland is covered by Russian air defense systems, so unless you managed to sit Russia down and get them agree to a no-fly zone I suspect it'd be a no go. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 21:33 on Feb 12, 2022 |
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Feb 12, 2022 21:31
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:let's also not forget the cyber attack on the eastern seaboard oil pipeline that sent gas prices rocketing literally last year. unless we''re not going to count that since its a proxy the russian government condones except when they think it might make Biden let them have ukraine as a treat. So that brings up another interesting note: During the negotiations Russia started cracking down, visibly, on Ransomware teams in Russia. For a long time in a while, Ransomware incidents started to plummet. I suspect this was less about Russia wanting to end Cybercriminal activity and more a indirect offer to the West: Give us what we ask and the Cybercrime goes away. But make no mistake, these guys are a direct benefit to Russia and as soon as this is over, they'll be back en force and Russia will stop enforcement against them.
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Feb 12, 2022 21:35
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Russia, notable for being home to a lot of ransomware groups who use crypto for their ransoms, legalizes crypto as a currency. Hmmmmm.
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Feb 13, 2022 17:03
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Russian central bank actually wanted to go nuclear on it just last month, with gulag and everything, but Putin intervened personally. Yeah, again I suspect its more about enabling Ransomware groups/Cybercrime groups which Russia fully takes advantage of. Like I said previously, when they started cracking down on the groups during the negotiations, there's no way they are gonna keep such valuable third party assets locked up. Also: This might prove to be a terrible idea, crypto is super-high inflationary and largely tied to scams/fraud so this might actually go poorly for the banks/Russia.
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Feb 13, 2022 18:01
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:As noted above Russia’s also about to institutionalize crypto currency which is important since the ruble is going to become very very very weak if the west actually follows through on sanctions which they did not leave themselves wiggle room to welch on if it actually threatens the gas supply. Still don't see how it doesn't become a terrible idea: Crypto is VERY slow to process, its super inflationary values make it practically worthless as a base.
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Feb 13, 2022 18:14
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Discendo Vox posted:If the infra's housed in Russia, it's harder for external law enforcement to go after hackers that use it for things like ransomware. Where it's just used for that and laundering, a lot of its defects stop being as important. That's what I'm assuming as well. Its the ONLY reason to make the banks accept it, it makes laundering the ransoms faster because it can just be directly converted.
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Feb 13, 2022 18:22
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Paladinus posted:Lol, no. If you need an uncharitable reading, it's because there is a perception that Russian opposition is secretly funded with crypto. You already have to register as a foreign agent if you get ANY money from abroad and you do anything even vaguely political (like helping sexual abuse survivors or having a blog). A more charitable reading is that Mishustin continues to clamp down on tax avoidance, which is his focus as a technocrat PM. Maybe, but the people who are avoiding the taxes remain, by and large, either wealthy or cybercrime groups.
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Feb 13, 2022 18:40
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Paladinus posted:I think you'll find cybercrime is already illegal, yet somehow those hacker groups mostly remain untouched (one group got raided last month as part of US-Russia anti-cybercrime initiatives). Russia doesn't need to do anything with bitcoin legally to support those groups, and even when you'll have to pay taxes on Bitcoin, hackers can still remain an exception. Its illegal, like many things, but Russia remains one of the prime safe harbors of cybercrime groups. And again, the group raided last month? Happened at the same time negotiations were ongoing. Those guys are going to be out in no time. The raid was not about enforcing the law if I had to guess, but sending a message to the US/EU: If you give us what we want, these guys can go away. Russia only suddenly decided to enforce these laws. Weird.
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Feb 13, 2022 18:56
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Technically it’s deflationary (usually) which is actually worse for a currency because it means you make a profit from just waiting until tomorrow to buy something so it incentives low demand. Yeah my bad I stand corrected: Deflationary. Not a finance expert, thanks for the correction.
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Feb 13, 2022 19:15
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Some Russian unit positions as of today: https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1492844014726438915?s=20&t=Z-b5Qut6aKA9THRLGcrvoA
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Feb 13, 2022 19:51
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Putin going for the double score.
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Feb 13, 2022 20:07
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Victory Position posted:World War III does not exactly lend itself to a good future. World War 3 isn't going to happen. The US and NATO are not staging forces to counter a Russian incursion into Ukraine. Why do people keep assuming we're going to, last minute, do so? As of last month there was only about 70k US forces stationed in ALL of Europe, unsure if that counts the elements of the 82nd Airborne being moved into Poland to help with evacs, but there is in no way enough forces in Europe to even begin to consider countering the 100k+ Russian forces on the Ukrainian border, and for all intents and purposes the US position has been we will not be involved in a war with Russia. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 21:24 on Feb 13, 2022 |
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Feb 13, 2022 21:19
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Yeah nobody knows the long term game Putin has for Ukraine. Most likely its just put a Russian asset back into Kyiv and tie Ukraine back into the Russian economy and that's about it. Other than that, what its mostly likely to do as well is backfire in Putin's face, as part of his goal was to demonstrate weak NATO resolve, but Ukraine is not a member of NATO and so far its only increased NATO members calling for a strong resolve. So yeah, its hard to tell what Putin thinks he will gain.
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Feb 13, 2022 21:52
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Foxfire_ posted:How does that work without an occupation though? A puppet installed at gunpoint isn't going to last very long if all the guns leave I suspect they'll keep forces in theater for a while, but I also don't know if there will be much of a violent insurgency. But hard to predict, I cannot be certain.
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Feb 13, 2022 22:00
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Wonder if Putin will pull what he did in occupied Georgia where they wiped entire villages off the map to ensure they couldn't come back https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2012/08/19/how-villages-are-erased-from-the-georgian-map-a17123 https://twitter.com/KShoshiashvili/status/1492788366722703366?s=20&t=Z-b5Qut6aKA9THRLGcrvoA https://www.hrw.org/report/2009/01/23/flames/humanitarian-law-violations-and-civilian-victims-conflict-over-south
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Feb 13, 2022 22:23
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OddObserver posted:Ulan-bator is the best part. So THAT's why Palin can see Russia from her back yard, she's accidentally in Ukraine.
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Feb 14, 2022 01:01
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Regarde Aduck posted:What was this probe for? TipTow posted:I'm thinking it's about me since you quoted me???? And I backed up my accusations in the very post you just now quoted. Are you loving serious? Okay, knock it off. They implied that the Azov Battalion represents the entirety of Ukraine. That'd be like someone interviewing a US Militia Group and saying that is the entire country. Find something new to slapfight about.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:35
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I don't think you can really separate the very long and very brutal history of antisemitism in the Ukraine from it's current predicament. The centuries of pogroms and paramilitary groups that the Ukraine has been responsible for are not anomalous but rather a very clear pattern that continues to this day. The cossacks, for example, were notorious in their cruelty to the Jewish people. Their post was: quote:This feels like a sign from god that maybe we shouldn't be giving Ukraine weapons Gonna point out two things: One, that they are saying this person on screen represents Ukraine and therefore is a reason not to defend Ukraine. Two, they are now claiming this was a joke. Jokes are supposed to be funny. Nobody is defending Azov battalion.
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Feb 14, 2022 15:51
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Cookie Cutter posted:He's not saying that person "represents" Ukraine. He's saying arms going to Ukraine will fall into the hands of that guy and others like him, which is literally what is happening. So it's a stupid probe. They also claim it was a joke. Ha ha. funny. Solaris 2.0 posted:Everyone obsessing over Nazis in Ukraine seem to conveniently ignore the number of Nazis / white nationalists that also happen to exist in Russia, and probably are in the Russian military as well. Literally this. Russia is funding White Supremacist and Neo-Nazis in Donbass as well. Obviously that means "Let them fight" is the best solution
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Feb 14, 2022 15:55
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Perhaps arming a government with a real life SS-founded division is a poor choice, especially when that division is arming and training Nazi grandmas. Got it. Roll on in Russia, nothing to be saved here. Cookie Cutter posted:If UK and USA were funneling arms and cash to the Russian nazis, yes that would be a serious concern. Luckily they aren't so we can focus the discussion on the things our governments are provably doing. It's not good team vs bad team for heaven's sake. Aren't you the guy in the UKMT thread defending Russia as simply reacting to NATO expansion west? So at this point, are you basically just parroting Russian justifications for annexation of Crimea and Donbass region?
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Feb 14, 2022 15:58
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Cpt_Obvious posted:C'mon man, you can just disagree with me without shoving words in my mouth. I'm not putting words in your mouth. I'm basically quoting the person who got probed saying that this image of Ukrainian Nazis means that we shouldn't give defensive weapons to the entire country. And again, the user is claiming THIS WAS A JOKE. That we were supposed to find it funny.
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Feb 14, 2022 16:06
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Cookie Cutter posted:Just because "Russia says thing" does not = thing being false. That's some "putin the mastermind" nonsense. No, but the problem is by doing so you are saying this justifies Russian actions against Crimea and Ukraine. So maybe you should clarify how Russian military intervention and invasion is a consequence of NATO expansion and therefore, is okay. Because that is what Russia is saying.
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Feb 14, 2022 16:09
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Cookie Cutter posted:Justified? Nah. Okay? Nah. Understandable? Yes. How is saying its "Understandable" not justification.
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Feb 14, 2022 16:30
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I did and couldn't find anything about a Soviet project to exterminate Jews. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rootless_cosmopolitan quote:From 1946 onwards, then, when Andrei Zhdanov became director of Soviet cultural policy, Soviet rhetoric increasingly highlighted the goal of a pure Soviet culture freed from Western degeneration. This became apparent, for example, in a piece in the Soviet weekly Literaturnya gazeta in 1947, which denounced the claimed expressions of rootless cosmopolitanism as inimical to Soviet culture. From 1949 onwards, then, a new series of openly antisemitic purges and executions began across the Soviet Union and its satellite countries, when Jews were charged explicitly with harbouring an international Zionist cosmopolitanist conspiracy.
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Feb 14, 2022 16:50
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Truga posted:again, page 106 here: And Russia's response was to invade Georgia and do some ethnic cleansing. That doesn't really justify their NATO fear. This is like some guy invading his neighbors while ranting about the neighborhood association having too much power.
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Feb 14, 2022 17:22
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mila kunis posted:Are you referring to the 2008 war which was triggered by Georgia invading South Ossetia? That's a vast oversimplification per the timeline, as Ossetia had already started shelling across the border.
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Feb 14, 2022 17:45
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Truga posted:i mean, apart from the the loving war in 2 of their regions, the constant saber rattling by the both putin and the west, and the rise of neonazi militias? Again: What saber rattling from the West? Versus actual saber rattling from Putin/Russia by actually annexing and invading countries? When was the last Western invasion of a Russian territory? Mokotow posted:Hey mods, I think we’ll take the EE hang-out thread over this cesspool. Maybe rename this one to Russia vs Ukraine or vice versa. Good ask.
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Feb 14, 2022 19:28
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To help manage this mess: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3993516 Please shift anything specifically about Russia v Ukraine in there. Ukraine or Russian internal political discussion can remain here.
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Feb 14, 2022 19:32
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mmkay posted:Weird though that the support for joining NATO was still below staying away from it in 2014 when Russia invaded. Yeah lets move that to the other thread for now, thanks.
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Feb 14, 2022 19:45
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