Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

Thug Lessons: Dec 14, 2006; I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

Friendly Humour posted:

This might come as a surprise to you, but hardship caused by what are perceived as external actors tends to harden support.

You're softballing it, they correctly identify the cause of their economic woes as caused by Western sanctions and oil price manipulation by the West's ally Saudi Arabia. So very predictably people are supporting the guy who's standing up to those countries more than anyone else on earth.

# ¿ Feb 28, 2016 01:58

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# ¿ May 3, 2024 00:06

Thug Lessons: Dec 14, 2006; I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

kalstrams posted:

Your line of thought is the penultimate achievement of Putin's policies.

It's apparently the primary achievement of Obama's policies as well because that's what any sane observer would expect Russians to conclude.

# ¿ Feb 28, 2016 04:37

Thug Lessons: Dec 14, 2006; I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

Cat Mattress posted:

What is sane about concluding that Obama's policies is what determine the political alternative to Putin in Russia?

Is this one of those "nobody has agency outside of the Agency" posts?

Look at the comments from the series of posters you're responding to. Everyone acknowledges the current political support for Putin is entirely predictable given Obama's response, and he and the rest of the executive branch were definitely not ignorant that this would be the case.

# ¿ Feb 28, 2016 05:24

Thug Lessons: Dec 14, 2006; I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

McDowell posted:

Literally 'I will shake hands and make deals with Putin' with beltway people desperately trying to tell Americans this would be the end of the world.

It's pretty insane living in a world where the candidate whose Russia policy has the highest practicality + sanity sum is loving Donald Trump.

# ¿ Feb 28, 2016 06:27

Thug Lessons: Dec 14, 2006; I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

Munin posted:

The Russian economy has been on the ropes for years. Like in Venezuela this was only barely disguised by the oil and commodities boom that was occurring. The EU sanctions would have had minimal effect if the underlying fiscal and economic position of Russia was better since the main restrictions they impose on things other than individuals is on extending credit to banks and companies linked to the Russian state or to figures close to senior state officials. Several Russian companies are having debt and financing crises and can't go cap in hand to the evil western capitalist banking sector for cash.

If you talk about trade sanctions then the Russian counter sanctions impacted a greater volume of cross border trade than the EU sanction on them did and were responsible for some of the greatest supply shortages and prices rises in Russia. The direct trade sanctions on Russia target arms and oil equipment which Russia can mostly build and supply domestically. Putin imposed the trade restrictions which had the most impact on the general Russian populace himself in order to reap the backlash stemming from those by linking them to the EU sanctions regime.

Saudi Arabia's move is aimed more at certain Western producers than Russia etc since they are the high cost producers rather than Russia who as a low cost producer can't be squeezed out of the market. The main difference is that these western economies have other areas of economic activity they can fall back on. That said if you've followed economic news at all then you should have noticed that the current situation has been devastating for the balance sheet of a lot of western oil companies. If the US really is driving Saudi oil policy in this case then some politicians are going to get crucified when it comes out.

Also, just as important is that Saudi Arabia's continued pumping is not the only driver of low oil prices. Low demand (like the general low demand for raw materials across the board) is another huge driver. That would not go away should Saudi Arabia sharply reduce their output. In addition there is a lot of spare capacity which has been mothballed due to the low oil prices, upticks in prices and demand would meet an increase in supply leaving the oil price low for an extended period. What drove the initial price drop of oil was not Saudi pumping but a huge amount of oil coming on the market from "unconventional" sources; those being the certain western producers I mentioned in the previous paragraph.

So yeah, "correctly identify the cause of their economic woes as caused by Western sanctions and oil price manipulation by the West's ally Saudi Arabia" my foot. The basic problem is that it has failed to reform its economy and has been far to reliant on raw material exports; it is now reaping the same reward as Venezuela (but less so since the level of graft and mismanagement in Venezuela was staggeringly beyond what is present in Russia).

Even if I grant all of this it doesn't change the situation much because the sanctions and oil price shock are still the proximate cause though not the ultimate. Were you saying that Putin isn't taking his fair share of the blame for the economy I could accept that, but what it seems like you're implying is that since Russia's economy is the underlying issue he should take most or all of the blame, which is nonsense. Russia simply would not be in an economic recession right now were it not the target of sanctions and economic pressure by the West and its allies, and you can't simply ignore this entirely to focus on structural issues or saying "well Putin was asking for it because of Ukraine".

One thing I wouldn't grant though is your take on Saudi's oil price move. You're correct that it targets North American oil producers, but it's also taking place in the context of a proxy war in Syria with Russia and Iran on one side and the Saudis and their allies on the other. The Saudi coalition absolutely wants to put pressure on those countries, who were much less prepared for an oil price shock than KSA, and it's part of their motivation for taking these steps. I agree with you that the US is not backing it, but they are letting the Saudis get away with it despite the effects on their own economy and their very real leverage in Riyadh, and I would suspect the consolation prize of harming two of its geopolitical foes does indeed play a role in that decision to let them run rampant.

# ¿ Feb 29, 2016 01:03

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence