Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

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cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

OddObserver posted:

Same author that was shocked Ukrainian army (at least he should get some credit for knowing it exists, I suppose) didn't have clothing drying machines in the trenches.

Wait until he learns what happened to the condensed milk fondue.

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 14:53

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# ¿ May 13, 2024 12:01

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Saladman posted:

Russia can also just take over Donetsk and Luhansk and use their military for intimidation, basically just another one of their carved out statelets they�re so fond of like Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria. The Economist had an article on the buildup today and they ended with that, so presumably that�s what their analyst thinks is the most likely outcome. https://www.economist.com/europe/to-russian-denials-america-warns-of-an-imminent-invasion-of-ukraine/21807701

Putin can probably take that region under the fig leaf of "they�re independent" and without suffering any real diplomatic fallout. I�d be surprised for a march on Kyiv or Odessa, especially now with it being impossible to convince any but the most hardcore tankies that Russia is not the aggressor here. I guess they could take over Donetsk and Luhansk, wait a couple weeks, then do a false flag, but I don�t see that happening immediately. Anyway maybe just wishful thinking. I�ve only read this thread for a couple weeks but there don�t seem to be any posters here who live in Ukraine or Russia?

Why are you suggesting Russia hasn't had threatening presence in Donetsk and Luhansk "statelets", as you call them, since their inception? We do have maybe a dozen people living in the former USSR that post semi-regularly here, half of them from Russia or Ukraine if I have my marbles right.

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 14:58

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

TipTow posted:

So just to be clear, discussing the existence of actual, real-life fascist paramilitaries in Ukraine is verboten, but hyperbolic analogies of comparing Putin to Hitler are permissible. Yes? Just want to be clear what the rules are in here.

I'm afraid that no one else has access to your imagination, so you'll need to be more specific with your accusations here.

Cookie Cutter posted:

Nobody is saying this?

On the contrary, it's a popular theme with a certain demographic of posters.

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 15:11

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Cookie Cutter posted:

Show me the post where somebody claimed "All Ukrainians are Nazis" and I will concede.

Regarde Aduck posted:

can't see any repercussions to letting nazi dirtbag country into the EU, they can join in the race to the bottom along with Poland and Hungary

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

There you go.

TipTow posted:

I never said all Ukrainians are Nazis? And the "conclusion" you come to about the existence of far-right paramilitaries being Putin's fault sure reads a lot like the conclusion I and others have suggested that Russia's aggressions are due to NATO aggressively expanding eastward in the aughts--a conclusion for which I and others have been viciously dogpiled on.

And that's your imagination lol

Why are you thinking this is about you? I'm sorry, but this thread is not a group therapy session for your persecution complex. In the future, make sure to back up your accusations.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 15:24 on Feb 14, 2022

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 15:21

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

TipTow posted:

I'm thinking it's about me since you quoted me???? And I backed up my accusations in the very post you just now quoted. Are you loving serious?

I genuinely think that either you cannot read or you're intentionally mocking me right now. You alleged that it's impossible to discuss fascist paramilitaries in Ukraine, to which Alchenar observed what kind of posts happen in the thread at all. You took that personally, and then quoted 4 completely unrelated posts trying to say something mysterious.

Cookie Cutter posted:

One post does not = theme. And I can just as easily say the UK and US are nazi dirtbag countries because they largely are, but simple reading comprehension would mean obviously I don't mean every single person in those countries.

You asked for a post, you got a post. Please concede now, I don't have time or interest to chase your goalposts or chew 8 years of thread's history for you.

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 15:38

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Saladman posted:

I re-read my post and... I wasn't suggesting that? The current buildup does mean that there is zero chance Ukraine would meaningfully protest (e.g. attempt to re-ignite the conflict) in the case of declarations of independence. Pre-buildup then potentially Ukraine would have tried to do something about it if the DPR and LPR suddenly declared independence like, last summer.

It is definitely an excessive effort for minimal gain, considering that they're already de facto part of Russia, it's just the only thing I can see happening that warrants the military buildup and which would not lead to a significant outbreak of war or sanctions against Russia. Maybe when Putin started the buildup he thought that Europe would roll over like when he took Crimea or invaded in Georgia -- although for Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia were anyway de facto independent well prior to Putin's involvement.

PS: statelet is an actual term: https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/statelet

Fair enough, I appreciate the clarification. I had taken �Russia can take Donetsk and Luhansk over� as a suggestion that DPR and LPR can be viewed in separation from Russia.

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 16:02

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Eh, 30 years is not that long ago. Aside from that, the resource curse is real. Being rich in natural resources distorts your economy, making your currency too strong relative to your productivity in other sectors, making those sectors noncompetitive. This encourages further reliance on your primary sector, a sector basically built for a patronage-based oligarchy.

Of course the conclusion here is that you'd need some extremely altruistic intervention to prevent Russia from falling into that trap, since the natural resources were gonna be there no matter what, and they'd be very easy for anyone unscrupulous enough to grab the entire country to use as a way to cement their power. You basically need to create a sovereign wealth fund to essentially sanitize the money and make it safe for the rest of the economy. Which if you've already created a patronage-based oligarchy means upsetting a lot of people, since you're basically saying you're gonna put the money aside for long-term investments that will eventually result in a (relatively) healthy economy for the population at large down the road.

Sure, that makes sense to me. I�d like to slightly clarify my earlier implication - in my opinion, Russia has only strengthened its model of oligarchy, instead of making even incremental improvements. As far as entrepreneurship in Russia is concerned, the most important changes have been that you�re less likely to be killed for having a successful company, or see your company taken over in a raid.

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 16:13

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

CommieGIR posted:

And Russia's response was to invade Georgia and do some ethnic cleansing. That doesn't really justify their NATO fear. This is like some guy invading his neighbors while ranting about the neighborhood association having too much power.

Later, to attempt igniting civil war in Ukraine, that it so feared.

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 17:23

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

mila kunis posted:

Are you referring to the 2008 war which was triggered by Georgia invading South Ossetia?

Oh, sounds interesting. Where could I read more about this?

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 17:43

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

CYBEReris posted:

what spurred this topic wasn't the existence of far-right groups in Ukraine, but many media sources running stories promoting nazis with their nazi armbands in plain view as the front of defense against Russia with the feel-good story about the patriotic granny and all. you do not, under any circumstances, "gotta hand it to them"

Sounds like media sources should stop generating controversy for the sake of their profits. There�s nothing feel-good at all about continued existence and operation of Azov or any other ideological paramilitary.

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 17:56

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Mokotow posted:

Hey mods, I think we�ll take the EE hang-out thread over this cesspool. Maybe rename this one to Russia vs Ukraine or vice versa.

Can�t say I entirely disagree with the old I/P thread comparison, despite today�s diarrhoea being just media spotlight-related.

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 19:39

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# ¿ May 13, 2024 12:01

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

New normal conversation thread is up https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3993523

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 20:09

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

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