Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

Young Freud posted:

I was reading that Janes' analysis and was surprised that they shitted on missile defense. Deployment of 40 interceptors is only possible because ballistic missile defense hasn't been a priority since the fall of the USSR and, despite it's increasing technical feasibility, it's a red-headed stepchild in the Pentagon. The cost of the GMD program is something like $40 billion dollars by 2017, but, in comparison, that's a drop in the bucket to the $1.3 trillion dollars we've spent on the F-35 program, and we've gotten successful intercepts out of GMD and THAAD.

Now would be the time to put missile defense as a top priority. It would neutralize the Russians' perennial threats of nuclear annihilation whenever someone considers countering something like Crimea takeover or using regular military in Donbass. Let the Russians spend to try to modernize their ballistic weapons to penetrate an upgraded missile defense network, it'll pull more money from their conventional military and bankrupt them faster. Imagine what would happen to their foreign policy if the Russians didn't have their nuclear weapons, we wouldn't be sitting on our hands with letting them bomb rebels and prop up Assad in Syria.

Even a non-nuclear WW3 seems like it would be pretty lovely.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

the JJ posted:

...

Have you checked that opening line?

I think the way it's presented to children skews it with the nationalist meaning of "we are both members of the same glorious country" rather than "we are both equally invested in the land because the concept of private property is a sham".

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

classic movie villain move

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

OddObserver posted:

Well, well, well.
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/832946413285806080

Surkov sure keeps a "fine" company, complete with the kolovorot armband.

top left looks exactly like a scifi convention group photo

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
So, there have been a fair amount of civilian airlines shot down by various states or their proxies, but how many other cases have their been where the ones who fired the shot tried to completely deny their role instead of casting it as an unfortunate unavoidable accident or suggesting the other party erred in their flightpath?

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Genuinely happy for such outcome. With how brazen Jehovah's witnesses are here, I'm sad they aren't banned everywhere.

My only extended interaction with a Jehovah's Witness was a feeble old man I felt too guilty to turn away from my door who rambled on about how the gays were an abomination. Based on that they seem like they would fit in very well in Russia.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

Brown Moses posted:

Today we also named a senior GRU officer as being a main suspect in the MH17 case, so a pretty bad week for Russia:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/05/25/mh17-russian-gru-commander-orion-identified-oleg-ivannikov/

this is amazing work, but in the end the biggest takeaway that i can't shake is that society really doesn't fully understand the ramifications of the digital footprints we are all leaving

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

hmm, being arrested by plain clothes police and being abducted off the streets by randos appear to be indistinguishable from one another

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
i kept waiting for uniformed police to show up after the broker was apprehended, but nope, it's just pull up the unmarked van with tinted windows and shove him in

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/09/the-russians-are-really-pushing-a-nasa-astronaut-sabotaged-the-iss-theory/

cross posting from the spaceflight thread. this is the first time i can remember a disinformation campaign being launched in regards to something space related, it's usually very apolitical

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

Brown Moses posted:

He was pretty cool, asking Graham to let us speak. It was a weird moment for me, to say the least.

that moment in the video was so surreal i started laughing. the eu guy seemed to be indignant at such a breach of full time protestor professionality

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

poisoning him while he was in state custody? is there a related charge for complicit guards, or did browder use evil western magic to remotely pull off such an assassination?

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

Doctor Malaver posted:

On the other hand, the frigate is practically a new ship (25 years younger than Kuznetsov), and it failed twice. First it collided with a tanker, days later the cables snapped and it sank.

no matter how you try to frame it an operational accident and having your largest drydock unceremoniously collapse into the sea are not equivalent incidents

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

Charliegrs posted:

Isn't the "little green men" thing a one trick pony? I mean everyone knew they were the Russians before Putin admitted it but if they ever turn up anywhere again it's not like there will be any debate as to who they are. So how would that be any different from a legitimate Russian invasion in the future?

no one wants to call their bluff, the transparent fiction is preferable to reality

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
under the thumb of big chocolate

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
is there a theoretical leader that would be able to play a winning hand as leader of ukraine? not a defense of proshenko, but it does seem like a no win situation

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

So, which country's election standards must Russia adhere to for theirs to be recognized?

https://twitter.com/XSovietNews/status/1094628634009235456

"with all consequences arising out of that"

what the gently caress does that even mean?

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
brown moses, you better be checking every cup of tea and doorknob that crosses your path

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

Rinkles posted:

i'd be wary of twitter anecdotes (the police solidarity bit)

yeah. not to downplay the efforts of the belarusians, but even recent successful revolts have required weeks of mass sustained efforts and have been touch and go

i'm not counting any chickens before they hatch

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

Vasukhani posted:

The Russian army is the strongest in Europe by a lot, the only one who comes close is the Turks.

i do wonder how well the russian economy could support a full ground invasion and extended occupation rather than tacitly supporting a proxy force. that's completely off in clancy chat territory though

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
i nearly did a spit take of my morning coffee when i read how they got the info, but now i'm kind of depressed that such an openly incompetent organization has been visibly harming so many people, but that nothing is likely to stop them

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

i'm sorry, is that a row of metal bunkbeds missing mattresses behind her? cause i don't know if that's a countryside resort atmosphere in russia, but here it has very strong horror movie vibes

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
what is the general mood in the baltics regarding the us military? i know sometimes large joint exercises with the us meet a lot of domestic pushback. in estonia is the current exercise being met with approval, disapproval, or an even split?

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

i was prepared to roll my eyes at severe hyperbole, but if this stuff is legit then i don't think they're exaggerating by using those terms. still, it's got to be supremely embarrassing for the government, but i wonder if it actually lead to anything

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Looks like Lithuania is maintaining a noble Baltic tradition - there’s a mass casualty event in Kaunas, with so far 17 left dead by moonshine of unknown origin.

is there a large excise tax people are avoiding, or is it just the joys of bespoke mystery moonshine? most of the methanol poisoning in these parts is the second variety with people making small batches of moonshine and sharing with friends, the same way they might experiment with sourdough, except instead of risking disappointing bread if you mess up, you risk going blind. i keep trying to get my sister to stop accepting moonshine from the random people she works with out in the sticks

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
maybe it was just a trust fall exercise gone tragically wrong

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

cinci zoo sniper posted:

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-us-mercenaries-plan-chemical-attack-ukraine/

Putin did also do his own bit today, about euphoric triumph march of NATO, which read like a generic Vasukhani post about the natural force of Russia.

at some point these stories will escalate to dastardly western mercenaries launching nuclear tipped mirvs at themselves from neo-soviet silos as part of the ultimate false flag

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

cinci zoo sniper posted:

And the vanilla and potato crisps ice cream with chocolate glazing, in the focus of photo, was okay then, I presume? Yes, it is.

if it helps any, ben and jerry's once sent this abomination out into the market, so it seems like a type of universal crime against food (unlike jimmy fallon, who is a distinctly american shame)

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
i still struggle to see what utility "spheres of influence" and buffer regions have in an age of nuclear powers. i wouldn't care about a mexico-china alliance (in a realpolitik sense, i'll leave the right to self-determination out of the consideration for now) because a staging ground for a conventional invasion doesn't mean anything to a country with a robust nuclear triad

if the concern is really about russian security, which realistically only concerns the issues of missile defense and staging of intermediate range nuclear weapons, then why didn't russia make any meaningful movement to keep the INF treaty from disintegrating, and why isn't a renegotiated treaty on nuclear weapons and defense the front and center issue?

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

cinci zoo sniper posted:

INF Treaty line item is a legitimate Russian demand, imo, because Trump withdrew from the treaty while yelling about Russian rocket bases sheltering Obama’s real birth certificate.

i agree that it's a legitimate demand, and the deployment of thaad and intermediate nukes is a potential threat to russian security. the fact that a renegotiation of relevant treaties is not the front and central demand (or at least is not coming across as the primary demand here in america) is what i find questionable.

also it was my impression at the time that russia didn't seem particularly bothered when trump tore up the inf treay

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Renegotiation of INF, as far as I can tell, is happening privately in a parallel flow - those were a major part of Russia-US bilateral talks earlier this month. I think it is the only exception where Russia may agree to separate one of their demands from the others.

And Russia was actually bothered enough to (chronologically after Trump’s announcement):

1) Accept US invitation to try to settle differences
2) Invite US to continue the conversation (Trump administration ignored the invitation)
— US confirms withdrawal in 6 months and pauses the participation —
3) Temporarily pause (instead of withdrawing) treaty participation while offering US a way out
4) Indeterminately pause (instead of withdrawing) treaty participation
— US withdraws from the treaty —
— 1 month passes —
5) Offer NATO to discuss a separate INF-style treaty for Europe (ignored)
— 1 year passes
6) Reiterate new NATO treaty offer (ignored)
7) Offer US and NATO to develop, together, specific solutions to determine and verify INF compliance on all topics contested by either side (ignored)

Right now, Russia de jure is still committed to the treaty - just not observing it, since why would they?

hmmm, fair enough. i wonder if there's actually a chance of a new treaty getting ratified by congress given the general collapse of our political system

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

mawarannahr posted:

What are you referring to?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

mawarannahr posted:

What does this have to do with the misinformation promulgated that an invasion was taking place today?

you know that's a good one, i'm going to keep this in my back pocket. if the us starts massing troops on the venezuelan/columbia border and i hear some suggest that america's history of invading socialist countries in latin america suggests we might be out to topple maduro, i'm going to pull out this line and have a good laugh

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

HonorableTB posted:

I can't think of any rulers that successfully came back to power after being ousted in a popular revolution, whether peaceful or violent. I don't think Yanukovich will somehow change that

i mean, the bourbon restoration lasted 16 years. that's not nothing

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
sinteres, do you have in mind any concessions that would have mollified russia and also don't completely scrap the modern western security framework? is it that you have specific actionable things that would have averted this crisis and they were ignored by western and ukranian governments, or is your point that there are nebulous concessions that no one on this forum knows about that would have averted the crisis, and it's our fault for not finding them?

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply