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Cugel the Clever posted:Disagree with this. The whole thing is theater with intent of achieving goals with minimal cost possible. Putin clearly believes this bluff necessary, but actually following through on it is orders of magnitude more costly, particularly given limited, but real Western support for Ukraine. The mobilization leaves him with the option of pursuing kinetic action, but the only thing that will prove intent to follow through is actually following through. Russia sat at the table with the US and NATO and the 'security guarantees' they presented were non-starters. They never had intention to negotiate, so what's it a bluff for?
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Jan 14, 2022 05:21
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This is the provocation period.
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Jan 14, 2022 07:26
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FishBulbia posted:welp, personnel is moving now. Not a good sign. Before it was just eqiupment Roughly half of Russia's contract troops are in place or on the way to the border, plus TBD numbers from the Eastern Military District.
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Jan 14, 2022 20:11
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Al-Saqr posted:Russia seems to have a really chill army if they're troops are all allowed to use their smartphones on the way to the front lines. They're just on their way to a chill exercise nbd.
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Jan 14, 2022 20:59
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Somaen posted:I think we just have unprecedented ability to watch a normal serious invasion preparation due to current OSINT capabilities + social media We can even try to guess the day just from weather reports: CSTO withdrawal from Kazakhstan completes on the 19th, and the 23rd and 25th will be subzero with no precipitation.
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Jan 17, 2022 00:05
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It'll be a mix of some specific 'provocation' triggering a push to assert control in the face of the vague 'deteriorating security situation' that prompted the troop mobilizations in the first place, and also providing water to Crimea. And you know? It's all true! Because Crimea needs better access to utilities before next summer, and it did seem like the Ukrainian military (with Western backing) was planning a move on Donbas last year that only preemptive reinforcing of the frontier put a stop to. Of course, in the first place those are only concerns for Russia because of what they did in 2014 
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Jan 18, 2022 02:48
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I don't see how on earth Putin could activate and move so many military units but then suddenly just turn around in leave. By getting the security guarantees he wants, or that he can pretend he wanted. That doesn't look to be happening so it won't stop. Cugel the Clever posted:As bad as backing down might appear, a ton of dead Russians for no tangible results is significantly more costly. Russian forces can crush the Ukrainian military with few to no casualties, and doing just that is in fact less costly from a domestic politics perspective than turning back around altogether.
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Jan 19, 2022 18:23
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BoldFace posted:That's only if both sides agree to play clean. Good luck with Russia's land invasion if Ukraine chooses the nuclear option and turns the eastern border into no man's land with dirty bombs. Russia needn't hold Ukrainian territory to cause damage, is what I meant. Ukraine also doesn't have dirty bombs - that's the whole reason why we are where we are. Conspiratiorist fucked around with this message at 21:55 on Jan 19, 2022 |
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Jan 19, 2022 21:51
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Sleepy Joe posted:"If it's something significantly short of a significant invasion or not even significant — major military forces coming in...for example, it's one thing to determine that if they continue to use cyber efforts, we can respond the same way, with cyber." You dumb geriatric gently caress, that's like saying you'll fire missiles into Russian soil.
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Jan 20, 2022 00:35
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nurmie posted:oh no 150+ new posts oh poo poo have russia invaded after all--- nope, no, it's all tedious clancychat (clancychat-lite, i guess?) We're currently looking at the largest concentration of conventional ballistic missiles and active armored fighting vehicles in Europe since the fall of the USSR, as well as the largest mobilization of contract forces in Russian military history. If this is just a bluff, what kind of bluff is it? What's the goal of threatening?
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Jan 21, 2022 05:12
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As for what's to gain, I've repeated it a few times in the thread but maybe it bears concisely breaking it down: Crimea is the HQ of the Russian Black Sea fleet, as well as a significant staging point for Russian Air Forces. While they control the peninsula, their only access to it is by air or sea; the Kerch bridge is relatively circuitous and not well suited towards mass movements, and would be destroyed with relative easy in the early stages of a conflict (we might even see that happen if the Ukrainian Airforce gets lucky before its wiped out). Russia also doesn't have control of the freshwater canal that provides drinking water to Crimea, which is a big issue during summers. Securing a land route would allow dramatically easier resupply and reinforcement of the peninsula, which consequently improves Russia's threat projection against Ukraine and any state with a Black Sea coast, especially Turkey. If Russia has any territorial goals, this is the one. Meanwhile, the Western countries that would normally challenge Putin are experiencing a period of unprecedented instability, and their entire policy regarding Ukraine appears to have been predicated on the idea that Russia would never risk a conflict this large in the first place, so now they're just hoping the Russians only grab a land bridge rather than try to cut Ukraine in half, while posturing about sanctions as if that stopped the chemical attacks in Syria and the numerous assassinations and cyber attacks over the past decade.
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Jan 21, 2022 05:40
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OddObserver posted:Apparently a single drop of American blood is more valuable than 13 thousand Ukrainians Putin already murdered. Go to hell you racist piece of poo poo. But have you considered the midterms are coming up
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Jan 21, 2022 08:43
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BoldFace posted:Remember that one time not so long ago when Russia shot down a commercial passenger jet full of people flying over Ukraine? I'm sure the bad dreams about that will keep Putin from invading this time!
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Jan 21, 2022 18:13
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Al-Saqr posted:So like what’s the significance of giving a written response to Putin by Biden? Wouldn’t anything short of what Russia wants mean that it’s just writing a letter saying ‘ try invading Ukraine bozo we’ll sanction you’? The Russians want Blinken to make those public (and will most certainly leak them themselves regardless). Whatever's in there will probably form the basis for whichever casus belli Russia decides to act on.
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Jan 21, 2022 19:43
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There's nothing the US can realistically offer that'd get Putin to back down; this is just theatrics in the vain hope of delaying conflict by avoiding giving Russia something they can shape into a casus belli.
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Jan 22, 2022 00:26
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The US can't do that, in fact.
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Jan 22, 2022 01:16
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:Since the US makes up like half of NATO and the Baltics have continually asked for more NATO troops the US could very easily flood them unilaterally with troops. That's going to happen anyway.
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Jan 22, 2022 01:55
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:The US can offer an alternative where NATO troops flood into the Baltics and around Kaliningrad, and also open NATO membership up globally. It would be further destabilizing for sure, but if the US wanted to play there's lots that could be done to outshine any potential gains in Ukraine. Reinforcement of the Baltics is a given regardless of what happens from here on. The US spearheading this is a possibility but administrations are always schizophrenic about NATO commitments - the US would rather just sell/lease equipment. On the other hand, expanding NATO membership globally is absolutely not the US's call to make. And overall, the threat of NATO drawing a harder line and expanding membership is empty because what Russia wants is an ironclad guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO, since Ukraine joining NATO is worse as far as their encirclement concerns go than either of your proposals, and kicking the can down the road is unacceptable as well.
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Jan 22, 2022 02:09
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Boris Galerkin posted:Is there a reliable news source to follow for developments on this current situation? I’m not interested in reading people posting Clancy chat https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1484798523061456904
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Jan 22, 2022 17:56
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Boris Galerkin posted:Is there a reliable news source to follow for developments on this current situation? I’m not interested in reading people posting Clancy chat Serious answer just follow Ukraine/Russia/Belarus on liveuamap, though force movements reporting will go over your head if you aren't already familiar with conflict tracking.
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Jan 22, 2022 18:12
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QuoProQuid posted:The German navy chief who spoke about Russia and Ukraine has been canned (or, rather, being forced to leave) lol: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutscher-marinechef-kay-achim-schoenbach-muss-gehen-a-454d5539-5d6a-4880-ba23-21ee7e363dc0 You say that, but rumor mill is that the Germans are getting torqued by Russia behind the scenes over gas prices, and with poo poo like blocking the Estonian munitions transfer it's like Molotov–Ribbentrop never ended.
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Jan 22, 2022 22:19
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steinrokkan posted:Even if Germany was getting screwed over re. energy, it wouldn't be some Admiral popping off about the importance of protecting Christianity to let the people know. Oh, of course. The optics on all the poo poo he said were super bad. But the messaging they want to send needn't be consistent with actual policy as implemented.
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Jan 22, 2022 22:42
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Yeah, good thing the rest of the Union isn't experiencing an energy crisis so they can just pick up the slack.
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Jan 22, 2022 22:58
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The unified response has been ambivalence.
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Jan 22, 2022 23:02
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GABA ghoul posted:I don't know why Russia is doing this now(they certainly haven't publicly presented any sensible demands to anyone) but it doesn't seem to be over any practical issues. Conspiratiorist posted:As for what's to gain, I've repeated it a few times in the thread but maybe it bears concisely breaking it down: Additionally, Ukraine has been expanding its military capabilities rapidly, notably in the space of cruise missiles; their first domestic cruise missile system iirc is expected to enter service later this year. The Ukrainian ability to impose cost on Russian moves against them expands the longer they let this go.
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Jan 23, 2022 19:49
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Sinteres posted:While Russia's obviously made stronger demands, I really think they'd be more or less satisfied with a deal that sees Ukraine kept out of NATO, presumably without massive arms transfers as well, and that recognizes some sort of Russian control over Crimea even if outright recognition isn't realistic. An impossible demand. With way NATO is structured it could never offer a public ironclad guarantee like that, and any treaties with individual nations over such wouldn't be worth the paper they're written on. IMO, NATO couldn't even publicly agree to a delay without without loving up alliance cohesion (which I'm sure has already been offered under the table as part of the negotiations).
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Jan 23, 2022 20:01
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Snap Normandy 4 meeting in Paris on the 25th.
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Jan 23, 2022 20:19
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Let's not victim blame here.
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Jan 23, 2022 20:45
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The people of Ukraine have a natural and inviolable right to self-determination. Best of luck enforcing it.
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Jan 23, 2022 20:59
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Panzeh posted:It seems like the Russian contention is to prevent countries from joining NATO so they can ensure their absolute dominance over them by being able to invade: see, Belarus, so i don't think it's just some nice thing about seeing to their own defense. Use of force is one of the levers Russia has available to compel other nations in pursuit of their interests, and certainly don't want to see their capability to wield it diminished.
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Jan 23, 2022 21:20
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Isn't the Russian military waiting for ideal weather? I was under the impression the ground wasn't frozen or cold enough. Weather's already ideal. Things holding it back are negotiations and that there's tons of equipment still on rails, in particular lots of movement from the Eastern Military District into Belarus.
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Jan 24, 2022 02:40
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I've read it online more than once Ukraine is experiencing a warmer-than-normal winter. That said, how much longer until all the equipment reaches Eastern Ukraine? When the Russians say so  There's currently 70~75 BTGs committed, which is enough to secure the land bridge to Crimea if that's what they want, and seem to be moving at least a Division's worth to Belarus (probably with the intent of keeping units near Kyiv pinned), but if they want to go for broke there's more forces they can draw from. For what it's worth, the Russia-Belarus snap "exercise" has its force concentration & movement portion scheduled to run until the 9th, with the active portion to begin on the 10th. ED: RE whether this is a bluff or not, so far this is all exactly how the real thing would look like.
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Jan 24, 2022 05:55
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GABA ghoul posted:Maybe this should tell you something? I don't know if Russia will attack, but they are doing everything in their power to make the preparations look as real as possible and leave absolutely no doubt about what they are doing. There is no way around everyone treating this as if it's the real thing, even if it ends up being a bluff later. It's harder to make a case for why they won't attack, considering Russia clearly doesn't give a poo poo about instigating warfare given they've been doing so every 6 years or so (Chechnya 1 in '95, Chechnya 2 in '01, Georgia in '08, Crimea in '14 and Donbass in '15). "Putin is a coward, actually" is a rather weak argument in the face of what Russian foreign policy tragically looks like in the real world.
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Jan 24, 2022 09:19
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The last 2 weeks of negotiations have been stalling tactics rather than a genuine attempt to engage with Russia, who themselves came with to the table asking for massive concessions they don't expect to receive. I should add, anything that gets Putin to back off or at the very least dial down the scale of the conflict will involve throwing Zelensky's administration under the bus. Conspiratiorist fucked around with this message at 18:25 on Jan 24, 2022 |
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Jan 24, 2022 18:22
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Sinteres posted:Chechnya is part of Russia, and engaged in attacks against Russia during the interwar period, so it doesn't really belong in a narrative about Russia's expansionist impulses. The point was more about willingness to use force, be it offensively or defensively. That was just for the European sphere too, since there's their involvement in Syria and Libya to account for as well. And other than Chechnya 1 (which was rectified by the slaughter that was Chechnya 2, codifying Russian stability for a new generation) they've achieved their basic aims in each case.
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Jan 24, 2022 18:39
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Sinteres posted:Winning hearts and minds by laying down sick burns on the country doing the most to try to prevent their invasion (short of trying diplomacy, anyway). After Biden saying Russia could have a small invasion, as a treat, I don't think any burn is too big. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1484171183264129025
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Jan 24, 2022 19:05
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Sinteres posted:They should really own him by declining his future assistance then. I know Zelensky has domestic political concerns to worry about too, but biting the hand that feeds is generally a bad idea. What else is there? I mean, you could argue we're here in the first place because Ukraine hasn't been suitably groveling, but they're sat out of all diplomatic talks between the West and Russia anyway, so sort of entirely capitulating really their only recourse is calling out the leaders dictating the nation's future among themselves.
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Jan 24, 2022 19:18
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Somaen posted:The "NATO at our doorstep" security concerns are a bullshit ruse. A democratic state drifting towards the EU is an existential threat to the Putin regime by the virtue of showing that perfidious Slavs can have free elections, change of government and develop economically. In 2013 Maidan happened for ties to the EU and most people were against membership in NATO. Anything short of giving up sovereignty is a security threat to the Mafia state. It is most certainly a security concern in the sense that, just like other powers, military force is one of the levers Russia can pull to compel other nations in the pursuit of her interests. Ceding strategically advantageous positions to their adversary coalition only limits their ability to wield it.
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Jan 24, 2022 21:19
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Putin's a short-term opportunist. Russian foreign policy under him has been focused on defining Russia as a modern great power, and great powers win big wars and beat back NATO's encroachment. If Russia can win this war rapidly and decisively it forces a new era of security calculus back in Europe, particularly if NATO shows themselves completely impotent as they're beaten back twice in a row. It might end up complicating Russia's position in the long-term, with NATO and the continent heavily remilitarizing in response, but that's not guaranteed due to the ongoing political situations in the largest NATO states, and either way that's a problem for tomorrow. Also, it should be noted that for all their posturing, qualitatively none of the support NATO claims to be sending to Ukraine amounts to loving anything - all the troops are being put on alert 'in case the fighting spills out of Ukraine' (aka "we're not crossing borders"), and no amount of ATGMs are gonna change the warfighting calculus because that's simply not a space where Ukraine is lacking. The one thing they really need and that NATO literally lacks the capability to give them is Air Defense.
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Jan 24, 2022 21:57
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Somaen posted:The problem tomorrow becomes Russians going to the streets in protest as the economy collapses and caskets start going home and the average Russian is further impoverished and sent to kill a brotherly nation and not these Clancy great victory and showing impotence of NATO things But have you considered Putin is evil and stupid?
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Jan 24, 2022 22:36
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