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quarantinethepast posted:And why is Putin always doing these aggressions during Olympics? Georgia in summer 2008, Crimea in winter 2014, now in winter 2022. Coincidence? Coincidence. But gets a grim chuckle out of me when policy wonks cite his current presence in the olympics as a reason why things are most certainly not about to pop off.
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Feb 5, 2022 21:59
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Boris Galerkin posted:I mean, this is one of those “the US has plans on invading Canada” type things right? This is a "this is what could happen if Russian launched a full-scale invasion". Russia is very unlikely to launch a full-scale invasion. However, they can have a minor invasion, as a treat.
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Feb 6, 2022 05:55
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Sekenr posted:Sorry but this is just stupid. https://twitter.com/alxgraef/status/1490267357998104576 https://twitter.com/SokovNikolai/status/1490272196966723592 Looks like an old man yelling at clouds to me.
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Feb 8, 2022 05:42
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:To be blunt, sanctions are super complicated and not some kind of binary thing and there's always some kind of cost-benefit. Sanctions are in fact pretty simple: - MIC sanctions work in their purpose. - Economic sanctions only work if your goal is to cause a state to fail completely, triggering a humanitarian crisis worse than whatever else is going on there in the first place. And since going all the way looks bad, instead only just enough squeeze is put in to immiserate the vulnerable while hoping the ~regime~ will collapse in a way that looks homegrown, prolonging suffering indefinitely.
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Feb 8, 2022 19:22
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:This isn't grade school where the teacher just wants to squash conflict with "It doesn't matter who started it! Now get along kids!". That's exactly how nations treat conflicts where they've got no horse in the race lol
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Feb 8, 2022 20:15
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https://mobile.twitter.com/YorukIsik/status/1491020877877497857 Baltic Fleet Amphibious Warfare Group transits Bosporus; second group to pass tomorrow. First group carries 1~2 Naval Infantry BTGs from Kaliningrad.
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Feb 9, 2022 04:40
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The Russians already have 2 or 3 CBs they can use plus wholesale manufacture.
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Feb 9, 2022 22:57
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This is just issuing a standard warning for the area where they're conducting the naval exercises they announced weeks ago. Of course, said exercises are part of the preamble to an invasion, but if they weren't it'd be entirely normal.
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Feb 10, 2022 01:32
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Alchenar posted:Just cancelling the one they don't really need. It's this. The upper left NOTAM is the one where you'd open hostilities in, to knock out the battalion operating in Odessa.
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Feb 11, 2022 10:30
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Al-Saqr posted:yeah I think all the embassies telling their citizens to leave the country IMMEDIATELY and them withdrawing is a pretty worrying development that's new. That just means the bluff is working.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:34
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See it's actually a double bluff to get the West to panic.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:37
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Oracle posted:With the goal of...? To earn respect, obviously. An actual war would be too costly.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:41
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FishBulbia posted:Destroying the Ukrainian economy and pressuring them to accept Minsk, which would plunge the country into civil unrest. But that'd be so costly in terms of sanctions; no way Vladimir Putin would dare attack another country if it'd jeopardize NS2.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:47
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Dante80 posted:If - at least at this point in time - this wasn't a bluff then the Ukrainians would be under active mobilization. They are not. Funny thing is that Ukraine's preparedness is already about as good as it gets and pushing forces to forward deployments beyond the line of contact could be construed as a CB. All part of the double bluff. steinrokkan posted:The movements have been going on for a while. When they turn into an invasion, it will be apparent. It's not an invasion until the missiles start firing. Technically, it's not an invasion until troops cross the border (de facto contested border) after the missiles landed.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:54
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Morrow posted:A big part of the issue is this will be a military conflict on a scale not seen since, what, the Iran-Iraq war? It's hard to grapple with the idea that someone would willingly choose that, looking back at the last century of military history. Gulf War 2. But this is different since it'd be the first conflict between two modern armed forces (Nagorno-Karabakh 2 notwithstanding). If it isn't a bluff, that is.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:57
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HonorableTB posted:How is it convenient to establish cause and effect in decision making? 114 BTGs are a tremendous amount of troops and redirecting the Baltic fleet to the black sea while redirecting half of the Pacific fleet as well, those are very important things to consider. Fleets are enormously expensive to maintain, even more so when they aren't in port. Those 114 BTGs are in advance forward positions now; vehicles and troops left FOBs earlier in the week. Troops are being kept in infantry tents in the field, which is not something you can do for very long if you don't want your troops to start freezing and getting sick. Putin just wants some respect, man.
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Feb 11, 2022 22:04
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The root cause of mobilizing the force necessary for an invasion is said force receiving genuine orders to prepare for an invasion. That's a necessary part for the bluff to work in the modern era of OSINT and satellite photography.
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Feb 11, 2022 22:31
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steinrokkan posted:I don't think there's anybody itt who isn't on edge, but I'd still expect better from professional reporters than this cycle of sensational claims and retractions. I've got bad news for you.
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Feb 11, 2022 22:46
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Captain Muffin posted:Ukraine is really stressing me out. I am software dev in UK, but we outsource a bunch of stuff to contractors in Kyiv. One of my team out there tells me it's just standard Russian bully behaviour but it makes me loving anxious. I get twitchy every time it rolls back to the top of news headlines (instead of Boris being a massive twat). Civilians in Kyiv will be living under air raid sirens for a couple weeks but shouldn't be in physical danger. Highly unlikely Russians would go for a twofer siege of Kharkiv & Kyiv. A different matter for active military and civilians in the Eastern regions.
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Feb 11, 2022 23:49
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Triple bluff.
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Feb 12, 2022 09:38
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Consider making your posts informative. The State Duma has scheduled a hearing on recognizing the independence of the DPR and LNR on the 14th. Russian Navy will have concentrated its Surface Warfare Group in the Black Sea on the 15th. In case people were wondering were the "by the 16th" was coming from.
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Feb 12, 2022 18:01
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https://mobile.twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1492142492833271810 https://mobile.twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1492200387461406728 https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1492431836068388864 Conspiratiorist fucked around with this message at 18:23 on Feb 12, 2022 |
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Feb 12, 2022 18:21
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Al-Saqr posted:So here’s the question why isn’t biden providing zelensky proof of the planned Russian attack you’d think he ought to know about it https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1484171183264129025
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Feb 12, 2022 19:57
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FishBulbia posted:He signs whatever capitulation and then brings in the Russian army to shoot all the nationalists coming to eat him. That's the theory with the Poroshenko opposition. That's the best move Zelensky could make for himself, yes.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:26
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steinrokkan posted:What concessions, Russia rejected any short of unconditional surrender. Let's be clear: the conditions of unconditional surrender are recognizing the sovereignty of the separatist states and Russian sovereignty over Crimea, and signing into law steps that would effectively prevent them from ever joining NATO. These are territories that Ukraine already has zero chance of ever reasserting control of, and a military alliance that it only very remotely has a chance of ever becoming part of. They of course have the agency to fight to the last Ukrainian to oppose Russian imperialistic ambitions in forcing them to accept these terms, but that's what compromising with the aggressor will look like.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:34
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steinrokkan posted:He also demanded a de facto abolishment of NATO That's their negotiations with NATO - I'm talking about what the situation is for Ukraine, stuck in the middle.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:39
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steinrokkan posted:I don't think it's possible to separate the two, this conflict isn't only about Ukraine, and even if Ukraine conceded on the issues concerning it, it would still be entrapped by being an accessory in the grudge Russia has with the NATO and EU over which it has no control. Right, Ukrainians and Russians have no agency and this is all about Putin and NATO.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:45
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The thread's position is Russia demands unconditional surrender and Ukrainians should spill every drop of blood in their veins to oppose said indignity. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 12, 2022 20:51
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No I'm sure Putin would prefer Ukrainians just gave up without a fight.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:53
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Sinteres posted:I'm glad everyone will have a clear conscience regardless of the outcome then I guess. This is D&D: we are debating things we have no control over.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:55
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steinrokkan posted:Even if Ukraine accepted to give up its territorial claims on Donetsk etc., I don't think it would change anything and in any way diffuse the situation, because that is not why Russia is rattling its sabres. It'd be a good crank because then Putin loses his CB.
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Feb 12, 2022 20:59
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steinrokkan posted:This isn't Europa Universalis, he has no CB as is (or one anybody believes, which is the same thing), and he needs none. I've got real bad news for you about how far having some kind of excuse makes way through popular discourse.
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Feb 12, 2022 21:07
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steinrokkan posted:I mean his cohort would defend him if he declared war over a stubbed toe, and none of his actual peers care about the nominal excuse he comes up with It goes further than that. Fact is one of the world's largest militaries has concentrated >60% of its fighting power along the border of a country it invaded less than 10 years ago and somehow we still have no loving idea what it's going to do or how they're going to do it. In response we have people who, for example, believe Putin is loving Hitler 2.0 and can't be reasoned with repeatedly assert that nevertheless he wouldn't attack because he's a coward or because he's got nothing to gain or won't risk sanctions and it was always just a bluff to earn international respect after being cooped up in a bunker for too long. Then we have the US publicly declaring they have absolute confidence through their security apparatus that Russia is aiming for a full-scale invasion, only to walk it back hours later, then flip flop again (nevermind Biden's "small incursion" gaffe), with international media alternating between ghoulishly sounding the war drums or pressing NATO governments for proof. And meanwhile the government of the country being encircled is asking everyone to calm the gently caress down and while insisting there's no reason to believe they're being invaded. That's the sort of effect maintaining even remotely plausible ambiguity has. Score one for strategic maskirovka. https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1492564532539105288
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Feb 13, 2022 03:32
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JerikTelorian posted:I wonder if some of the stuff going on in the west is to give Putin the opportunity to back down "gracefully" with respect to his cohort in Russia. A case can be made that Russia is leveraging Western media's ghoulishness, and the US State Department's untrustworthiness, as part of their maneuvers to mask their ultimate intent, on which there's enough seeded ambiguity they could conceivably finish exercises, everyone pack up and go home without ever firing a shot across the border, and blame the economic fallout (bad for Russia but catastrophic for Ukraine) on Western fearmongering. However, taking advantage of a situation is not the same as wholesale orchestrating it, and I wouldn't believe for a minute that this one in particular is being promoted by NATO governments themselves in order to offer some kind of convoluted de-escalation path.
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Feb 13, 2022 06:38
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An "act of war" nobody is willing to go to war over. Curious.
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Feb 13, 2022 10:05
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I believe the good faith reading here is "hope the US does not get involved and escalate into a direct confrontation with the other nuclear armed state"
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Feb 13, 2022 21:18
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Victory Position posted:This is good to hear and it definitely seems to be the consensus in this thread. Rather early to speculate. We're still at the "guessing what their actual objectives are" stage.
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Feb 13, 2022 21:31
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adebisi lives posted:https://twitter.com/melindaharing/status/1492218334783447041?t=92EEZ-O2YYQLIt2kjIRu_w&s=19 Not... yet.
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Feb 14, 2022 04:17
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Split the thread when Russia invades.
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Feb 14, 2022 19:31
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