Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Everytime I feel down about the general election and start to maybe Arzy I take a look at my map



Its a really good map.

Can someone explain this map to me. Is this implying a democratic win is inevitable?

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008

DemeaninDemon posted:

Democratic turnout will likely skyrocket to near Obama levels to thump the Trump too.

Not necessarily?

CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008

DemeaninDemon posted:

The attack ads write themselves and every sane politician regardless of affiliation will be out saying don't vote Trump.

Well every Republican candidate just said they would support Trump, so, no, I don't think so.

CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008
You guys shouldn't be so arrogant that Hillary will defeat Trump in a general election. He could easily win.

CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008
Trump softens the rhetoric.

Hillary has a crisis he drags in front of the country.

He wins.

CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008
I am growing increasingly terrified that traditionally blue states will flip to Trump due to Clinton's terrible favorability polls.

quote:

To be sure, Trump has historically high unfavorable ratings for a general election candidate. He could end up turning out high numbers of Democrats who find him disgusting. Clinton has held a lead over Trump in national polling averages for six months. But his “ceiling” of support has slowly inched upward, and he hit 50 percent support among Republicans for the first time in one poll this week. While Clinton admits she’s not a natural politician, Trump delivers his stump speech like a comedian, playing to the mood and rhythm of the crowd. And unlike most Republicans, Trump can attack Clinton for her ties to Wall Street, the source of so much anger across party lines.

https://newrepublic.com/article/131537/dont-sure-hillary-clinton-will-crush-donald-trump

CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

No blue state is going to flip red for Donald loving Trump JFC.

Hillary's favoritablity rating is so low nation wide because Republicans despise her. Democrats on the other hand, for the most part, have no issue with her and the rest will at the very least hold their noses and vote against Trump. On the other side Trump IS turning off some number of Republicans. If he so much as turns off 5-10% of people who would normally be voting for the GOP candidate in the election he is going to lose in an electoral landslide.

And if you think the Dems don't have a MILLION ways to hit Trump in a debate then you are blind. His debate antics entertain a large part of the Republican electorate. It overwhelmingly turns off the general electorate.

Why is not a possibility that Democrats don't vote for Hillary thinking that she'll inevitably win? Like, "I'm not voting for her because I don't like her but I don't want Trump to win".

CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008

Epic High Five posted:

Trump needs to win like 70% of white people to win, which would be a record turnout. On top of that, he can't even get 50% of white women. It's really a grim outlook for him

Anything can happen. It's not impossible that he wins over white women.

CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008
The most recent poll had Clinton up on Trump by six points.

I don't care what anyone says, that is not a lot of room.

CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

First of all polls have her up by much more than 6. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

Second, polls this early don't matter. Literally everything else matters. And basically all of it helps Hillary.

How is this link in any way positive for Hillary? It shows him closing on her by a significant amount.

CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008
Tell me more about that Clinton landslide.

quote:

Half of all voters said they would be scared if Mr. Trump were elected president, and another 19 percent said they would be concerned. Mrs. Clinton does not fare much better: Thirty-five percent of all voters said they would be scared if Mrs. Clinton won in November, and 21 percent said they would be concerned.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/22/us/politics/republican-democratic-voters-poll.html

CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008

FAUXTON posted:

13 points nationwide is generally considered a landslide, but it's cool you left out the part where they talked about how many Republicans were embarrassed over Trump.

That gap is going to narrow by a general election. They always do.

CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008
Here's my concern about Trump:

People forget things. People forget what happened last week.

Trump doesn't need to soften his stance. He needs to just stop saying stupid poo poo, (which is entirely possible). Swing voters all of a sudden think, "hey, he may not be so bad".

Do we really think anyone is going to remember what Trump said about abortion six months from now?

CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008

Zeroisanumber posted:

LOL, no. He gets away with it because he's running a primary campaign and the GOP base is made up of the worst people in America. He's going to get shredded in the general. At this point I'm even chill with the bro-est of Bernie Bros because even Bernie could beat the dogshit out of him.

For the love of god, please stop saying this as though it is a given.

CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008

Electric Bugaloo posted:

IDK dude, like a good ~70% of Americans have a negative opinion of the guy, up from 60% a few weeks ago. And this is before the Dems have really done any oppo campaigning against him.

Also the data from the poll I'm referring to predates the events of this past week, which almost seems to have been sent from heaven specifically to further trash his appeal among women of both political parties.

People will vote for someone they have a negative view of as long as the alternative is worse.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008
I'm not saying he will win.

I'm saying stop acting as though he definitely won't.

  • Locked thread