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Velkest posted:do you not know that for integration to suceed, we must pretend refugees are civil, lawabiding people who respect women and children, against all of reality? But most are? Unless we are now back to judging entire ethnic groups by the minority who commit crimes?
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Mar 7, 2016 17:47
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steinrokkan posted:Well, those don't seem like unreasonable demands, unless, of course, he's using the pretext of asking for more resources to aid refugees to ensure that in the end all aid will be scraped altogether due to bargaining conflicts. I don't think Erdogan is dumb enough to want aid scrapped, there's basically no universe in which Turkey doesn't have a whole bunch of Syrian and Iraqi refugees for the foreseeable future and they definitely do need money to help with that. I'm less confident of Erdogan's rationality as a policymaker than I used to be, though.
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Mar 7, 2016 17:48
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Velkest posted:how dare you post this here, you racist? Can we try to cool it on generalised strawman arguments for at least the first few pages, please?
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Mar 7, 2016 17:49
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steinrokkan posted:Shut the gently caress up. out of respect for you, i will stop stirring the poo poo. peace.
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Mar 7, 2016 17:49
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I don't think Erdogan is dumb enough to want aid scrapped, there's basically no universe in which Turkey doesn't have a whole bunch of Syrian and Iraqi refugees for the foreseeable future and they definitely do need money to help with that. Erdogan wants to spend as much of that money as possible on his own population and cronies, that's why they are demanding that it can be used for "municipal infrastructure costs". At the moment the money is earmarked for projects that directly help Syrian refugees and I'm not even sure whether the Turkish administration has any direct access to the money at all or whether it is given directly to NGOs. https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/706877625088737280 Deal sounds pretty sweet for the EU. Expedited visa free travel indicates that Visegrade group put a lot of pressure on Turkey to get a fast deal, before Operation Hotspot Greece becomes to effective in deterring refugees. GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 18:05 on Mar 7, 2016 |
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Mar 7, 2016 17:57
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GC, since you've been paying attention to the newsstream on it, I heard some reports that mentions of a closure of the Balkan route have been refuted, did you catch anything on that? Do not do this.
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Mar 7, 2016 18:17
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YF-23 posted:GC, since you've been paying attention to the newsstream on it, I heard some reports that mentions of a closure of the Balkan route have been refuted, did you catch anything on that? Well, Merkel and Juncker don't like the phrase, because it would be a victory for the Visegrad group and Merkels internal enemies, so they are resisting it. But it's only about the symbol of those words not what happens in reality because I really love the implications of the Syrian resettlement deal though. For every Syrian, who risked his life for nothing and who gets send back to Turkey, the EU will accept a hand picked Syrian to get a EU ticket, of which around 30% will be golden Germany tickets. Imagine you get selected for relocation and than get told "congratz, you get to live in Greece"
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Mar 7, 2016 18:29
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GaussianCopula posted:I really love the implications of the Syrian resettlement deal though. For every Syrian, who risked his life for nothing and who gets send back to Turkey, the EU will accept a hand picked Syrian to get a EU ticket, of which around 30% will be golden Germany tickets. Imagine you get selected for relocation and than get told "congratz, you get to live in Greece" The plot of
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Mar 7, 2016 18:31
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GaussianCopula posted:
That sounds like a very lovely system, and it brings back up the topic that a lot of EU states don't want refugees (and refugees, in turn, don't want to end up there). It's a mess.
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Mar 7, 2016 18:40
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I've never understood as to why working with Erdogan is seen as the 'better, more humane' way of going about this in the public eye, rather than dedicating ourselves on unfucking Greece already. Because Merkel says so? To me, all that aid money sent to Turkey seems like it's likely going to go to some incredibly lovely things and is, essentially, still just a bribe for Turkey to do the EU's dirty work. And under a leader as irrational and moronic as Erdogan, that's likely to get VERY dirty indeed. Personally, I see a much more prospective future in a) Going with Austria's initiative to close the route, since it's already been done and that's how the flow of events has been directed b) Work on redrafting the asylum application process to be inclusive of the entirety of Schengen, since that makes more sense than just deciding to let people travel willy nilly over it in violation of the previous agreement and c) Get as many EU nations as possible majorly involved in unfucking Greece, in both the economic and humanitarian spheres. Greece is, after all is said and done, merely corrupt. One can still fix that with a lot of work and getting personally involved, as opposed to just trusting them on everything. Turkey, however, is turning into a straight up dictatorship and even worse, an irrational one that cannot brook any outside interference whatsoever. To think that 3 billion will be a quick and simple bribe, that will simply resolve most problems for us (not to mention that even if that were the case, Erdogan would probably solve them in ways of massive human rights violations), seems quite naive.
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Mar 7, 2016 18:49
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Velkest posted:how dare you post this here, you racist? Haha you're right friend! I have decoded your sarcasm as I am VERY intelligent and I agree with your subtext that instead of the refugees CUNTS! being judged innocent as a collective, we should instead judge them NOT INNOCENT as a collective. CHECKMATE SOCIALJUSTIALIERLS get <u<k3d!!!!!!
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Mar 7, 2016 18:49
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Regarde Aduck posted:Haha you're right friend! I have decoded your sarcasm as I am VERY intelligent and I agree with your subtext that instead of the refugees CUNTS! being judged innocent as a collective, we should instead judge them NOT INNOCENT as a collective. CHECKMATE SOCIALJUSTIALIERLS get <u<k3d!!!!!! This poo poo was put back under control until you made this post. So as it was said for the person you quoted, you can gently caress right the hell off too.
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Mar 7, 2016 18:50
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CrazyLoon posted:I've never understood as to why working with Erdogan is seen as the 'better, more humane' way of going about this in the public eye, rather than dedicating ourselves on unfucking Greece already. Because Merkel says so? This is the same EU that tolerates Orban in Hungary, and in the name of opposing Russian imperialism accepts working with a neonazi-backed government in Ukraine. The whitewashing of right-wing authoritarianism is an ongoing process that has been going in full-swing in the past 8-10 years. In less ideological terms, Turkey is not in the EU, so the refugee situation being dealt with there resolves all EU NIMBY kneejerk reactions (except for where resettlement is concerned). Moreover, the sea border between the EU and Turkey is impossible to wall off, which acts as a weapon for Turkey. Just as our defence minister Kammenos said that/"threatened" that Greece would turn into a gateway for terrorists if it's allowed to collapse, Turkey can dickwave in a similar manner. Turkey is in the best position to control migrant flows into Europe, and thus also in the best position to permit them. Do not do this.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:06
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YF-23 posted:This is the same EU that tolerates Orban in Hungary, and in the name of opposing Russian imperialism accepts working with a neonazi-backed government in Ukraine. You're buying in Putin's propaganda if you think that the neonazis in Ukraine are offering a significant support to the government, or exerting any sort of influence on it.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:29
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The EU can't overthrow its member governments, and the Ukraine thing is a laughable bit of propaganda. If Ukraine is backed by Nazis, Russia is literally worse than Hitler by orders of magnitude.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:31
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I am not disputing that Russia is a shithole, and my previous statement was not meant to cast the Russian government in a favourable light.Cat Mattress posted:You're buying in Putin's propaganda if you think that the neonazis in Ukraine are offering a significant support to the government, or exerting any sort of influence on it. I know they dropped out of it somewhat recently, but they were part of it before (in the aftermath of Maidan), and the EU was backing Ukraine's government at that time also. I don't doubt that there have been frictions prior to the breakup given how wide a coalition that was.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:34
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YF-23 posted:I know they dropped out of it somewhat recently, but they were part of it before (in the aftermath of Maidan), and the EU was backing Ukraine's government at that time also. I don't doubt that there have been frictions prior to the breakup given how wide a coalition that was. So what are you suggesting they do? Selectively support Ukraine's government?
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Mar 7, 2016 19:35
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The Right Sector or any other extreme right never held any significant posts at any point during the Maidan, and they lost all their regional power which they gained under the Party of Regions government!!! in the first post-Maidan elections, dear grossly misinformed poster. Actually the Right Sector has been accusing the new government of assassinating its leadership since 2014, immediately after the Maidan. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 19:39 on Mar 7, 2016 |
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Mar 7, 2016 19:36
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The Eastern European thread is that way http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3765883 With regards to Turkey, Sultan Erdogan and the deal the EU is trying to make, there is really no viable alternative, because the European public would not be able to endure the pictures from Greece as a failed state forever and at some point most of the refugees would have been resettled. There was a very interesting, anecdotal, dialogue this morning on ARD, where the moderator asked the field reporter in Greece why the pictures of refugees send from Greece have not yet caused a shift in policy, to which the field reporter answered, in a weird mixture of apology and justification, that in his opening the media is already doing their utmost to by sending multiple reports about the situation every day. An important question is how Turkey's power in the negotiation will shift overtime. It's very strong at the moment, but I would argue that this could shift rather rapidly once the brunt of the current migration movement is dealt with and the EU can adopt long-term solutions to the problem. Additionally closer ties between Turkey and the EU are very likely to undermine the AKP's position in the long run.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:47
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steinrokkan posted:The Right Sector or any other extreme right never held any significant posts at any point during the Maidan, and they lost all their regional power which they gained under the Party of Regions government!!! in the first post-Maidan elections, dear grossly misinformed poster. I will admit that I have not been following Ukraine very closely since the Maidan aftermath, and did not know about the exact conflicts between Right Sector and the Ukrainian government. That said, hindsight is 20/20, and the EU supported a government that included Right Sector at the time. Just because they were dropped from the coalition doesn't mean they were always destined to. CommieGIR posted:So what are you suggesting they do? Selectively support Ukraine's government? Not support a government that included Right Sector.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:47
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YF-23 posted:I will admit that I have not been following Ukraine very closely since the Maidan aftermath, and did not know about the exact conflicts between Right Sector and the Ukrainian government. That said, hindsight is 20/20, and the EU supported a government that included Right Sector at the time. Just because they were dropped from the coalition doesn't mean they were always destined to. As I said, there was no coalition, they were never invited to form a government in any capacity, they just happened to also be against Yanukovich at the same time as other parties...
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Mar 7, 2016 19:50
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https://twitter.com/florianeder/status/706913439004942337 Renzi would make a great D&D poster, trying to scuttle every realpolitik deal.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:57
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steinrokkan posted:As I said, there was no coalition, they were never invited to form a government in any capacity, they just happened to also be against Yanukovich at the same time as other parties... My apologies, I seem to have been mixing up Right Sector and Svoboda. For a while I forgot that Ukraine had multiple fascist/far-right political movements rise to prominence on that period. GaussianCopula posted:Renzi would make a great D&D poster, trying to scuttle every realpolitik deal. He's trying. I don't think he'll make it but he's trying. 
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Mar 7, 2016 20:08
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Junior G-man posted:And in yet more totally unforeseeable news, the Greek economy keeps on cratering and who knows what the end will be! Well if that happens it's death to syriza but it might at least inspire other leftwing exit forces as there's literally no way to even surrender successfully if you're in that sort of bind and have to listen to the EU.
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Mar 7, 2016 20:20
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YF-23 posted:
Renzi should grow a pair and remember he represents a G7 nation already.
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Mar 7, 2016 20:42
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namesake posted:Well if that happens it's death to syriza but it might at least inspire other leftwing exit forces as there's literally no way to even surrender successfully if you're in that sort of bind and have to listen to the EU. I simply don't get it. The easiest way to fix Greece is to find 150 competent and determined people, get them elected and simply push through the reforms the creditors want letter by letter (don't tell me any Greek government did that, they didn't). If that doesn't fix your country, it's not your fault and the creditors will have to offer you more help. But it seems that there is no Greek Gerhard Schröder, who put his country's needs before his own political survival but only corrupt politicians that want to secure jobs and funding for their friends and family. Oh and please don't tell me SYRIZA is different, the amount of blatant nepotism going on in their administration is just laughable, just as their justification, that no one else can be found.
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Mar 7, 2016 20:54
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What's going on with Spain ATM?
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Mar 7, 2016 21:17
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Lawman 0 posted:What's going on with Spain ATM? Podemos did not want to support a government that did not implement all of their demands and therefore there will be new elections on june 26th (3 days after Brexit referendum)
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Mar 7, 2016 21:26
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Lawman 0 posted:What's going on with Spain ATM? No solution was found to form government, so new elections in June. Expect nothing new from the elections in June, unless something really shifts. PP is super corrupt and every day that passes more scandals involving high party members come out, Rajoy political image is all burned up and finding a new leader and candidate for PM is not going to be pretty. PSOE can't enter in a coalition with PP or they will lose the support of much of it's base, as well any syndicates/unions and labour movements that still hang on to PSOE. C is a party where old PP faces are finding refuge from the storm, however the entire party was built on "We're not PP", so it can't be seen getting comfortable with PP right now or much of the good will it has managed to collect with whatever remains of Spanish middle class will evaporate, not to mention that whatever business and media barons who have invested highly in the party don't want to see it dragged into the spiralling poo poo hole that is PP. Podemos held to it's beliefs, obviously it will never be part of a government with PP, but it's asking a big price from PSOE and the rest, mainly a referendum on Catalonia independence. Regional parties will all be pulling for their own and the bigger the mess in Madrid the better they look. In the case of Catalonia, the noise from Madrid is making the Pro-Independente Catalan folk look positively competent and not complete flops who almost bungled the job a couple of months ago.
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Mar 7, 2016 22:11
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GaussianCopula posted:The Eastern European thread is that way http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3765883 There might not be a viable alternative for the current ruling class, but the deal that is on the table has literally no upside for the EU. You couldn't get a faster rise of anti EU parties even if you were to use cattleprods to drive voters into their arms. It will not even achieve a net reduction of the immigrant flows. It will never be operationally executed and probably be outright vetoed (resettlement of refugees within Schengen, what a joke), and the very idea we should extend visa free travel and work towards a speedy EU membership for the religious autocrats (EU and humanistic values - what a joke, even Russia has more freedom of press by now) in Istanbul, a regime actively supporting ISIS, a country with practically open borders with a region that will most likely stay a sectarian warzone for another millenium, will lead to full collapse of the current politcal establishment within a decade. Let's hope at least Hungary and the rest of Eastern Europe keep on vetoeing this dumb poo poo long enough for the next election cycles in northern Europe so we can try to save the EU.
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Mar 7, 2016 22:37
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You do realize Turkey already is a member of the Customs Union (which itself is a product of many underlying harmonization efforts between the EU and Turkey) - giving them visa free travel is in the large picture just an affirmation of the trend, not a radical departure. If anything the continued sabotaging of talks with the EU in the past by Greece and Cyprus was a major factor in Erdogan's rise to power. Anything that can be done to improve EU - Turkey relations will mean both a normalization of domestic Turkish politics, and a boost to economic development. If anything the way Europe has been treating Turkey is frankly a travesty caused by select few members with a historical axe to grind.
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Mar 7, 2016 22:55
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Rappaport posted:I don't speak German so sorry if these questions are dumb; there was noise some time ago that Merkel is facing heavy criticism for her "open arms" rhetoric, has something changed in the German political landscape that'd drive the push for distributing refugees into the EU? Finland is currently having a poo poo-show with our internal politics and no one is discussing the refugee crisis, but it doesn't seem like the issue has become any less controversial. The original plan was to absorb Syrian refugees throughout the EU states. Merkel apparently forgot to discuss this with the class. In an effort to perhaps lead by example, Merkel welcomes refugees to Germany. She did not stipulate which refugees. She did not explain that not every refugee would be settled in Germany. This resulted in massive waves of immigrants from a bunch of disadvantaged countries. With no border control policies in force, most flooded Germany and Austria with the expectation that they would be welcomed and receive houses and cars etc (lies sold to them by people smugglers). The execution of this is amazingly terrible.
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Mar 7, 2016 22:57
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steinrokkan posted:You do realize Turkey already is a member of the Customs Union (which itself is a product of many underlying harmonization efforts between the EU and Turkey) - giving them visa free travel is in the large picture just an affirmation of the trend, not a radical departure. If anything the continued sabotaging of talks with the EU in the past by Greece and Cyprus was a major factor in Erdogan's rise to power. Anything that can be done to improve EU - Turkey relations will mean both a normalization of domestic Turkish politics, and a boost to economic development. The trend has been completely stagnant, with Turkey joining having been practically off the table for the past decade. I have no idea why you think that visa free travel, 6 billion euro a year and a revitalisation of the membership talks would be seen as anything other then a victory for Erdogan domestically and as a big gently caress you for the opposition and all the journalists in lock up, and there is zero chance and indication that this would lead to a 'normalization' of domestic Turkish politics. That ship has long sailed.
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Mar 7, 2016 23:02
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If Erdogan starts playing EU accession as a domestic card, that is a good thing, since it introduces a level of exogenous control over his government that may, in the long term, spill over beyond his control. Anyway, a billion per annum isn't all that much for a country of Turkey's size, and they are already getting as much in pre access instruments. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 23:09 on Mar 7, 2016 |
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Mar 7, 2016 23:06
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steinrokkan posted:If Erdogan starts playing EU accession as a domestic card, that is a good thing, since it introduces a level of exogenous control over his government that may, in the long term, spill over beyond his control. Since when? Have you been paying attention to the state of the EU? What kind of exogenous control are you envisioning? You really think Erdogan will use the membership card as anything but a tool for further domestic control and his aim for an executive presidency (dictatorship)? The only thing I see is an implosion of the EU project.
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Mar 7, 2016 23:11
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It's now his time to bypass Greece while they are down. The terms of the acquis are non-negotiable and the accession progress at the current stage is largely divorced from the current EU problems, so either he can choose to enact reforms that will allow him to open / close new chapters at a relatively rapid pace, or fail and take a domestic hit (since the EU bid remains somewhat popular, albeit in a diminished magnitude).
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Mar 7, 2016 23:16
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Erdogan wants the visa free travel and opening of chapters purely to boost his internal support, as it will serve as a symbol that he can "get stuff" from the EU and moves ever closer to actually joining the EU and his people should not pay any attention to those terrorists that claim he is trying to become dictator and isolates Turkey internationally. It's probably important to mention that 95% of visa requests from Turks get approved by by the German consulate in Istanbul, so it's mostly removing a buerocratic hassle and not necessarily something that will cause a wave of immigration.
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Mar 7, 2016 23:23
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steinrokkan posted:It's now his time to bypass Greece while they are down. The terms of the acquis are non-negotiable and the accession progress at the current stage is largely divorced from the current EU problems, so either he can choose to enact reforms that will allow him to open / close new chapters at a relatively rapid pace, or fail and take a domestic hit (since the EU bid remains somewhat popular, albeit in a diminished magnitude). The terms of the acquis are non-negotiable, you are kidding right? The only thing Erdogan will be doing is playing the different sides of a hopelesly divided EU for the next decade, ensuring the continued support and votes of all the Turks living in the EU. He does not need or want EU membership and neither do his voters. Anyways, even on principle we should not even be entertaining the notion of a country joining that has a regime that actively prosecutes anybody opposing them, locks up critics and nationalises the press. We might as well be discussing Russian membership.
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Mar 7, 2016 23:24
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If the EU explodes, Turkey cannot be part of it, right?
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Mar 7, 2016 23:29
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Can eurogoons tell me if Brexit is gonna happen or not? Because I'm moving to London to work next month and it would really suck.
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Mar 7, 2016 23:39
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