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Pochoclo posted:Can eurogoons tell me if Brexit is gonna happen or not? Because I'm moving to London to work next month and it would really suck. I got some bad news for you, London is an expensive shithole, and you should rethink your professional choices if you value your health and wallet. Also yeah the UK is totalling leaving the EU.
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Mar 7, 2016 23:45
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Pochoclo posted:Can eurogoons tell me if Brexit is gonna happen or not? Because I'm moving to London to work next month and it would really suck. It's relatively unlikely since most people will generally favor just keeping the status quo as it is and going on with their lives. On the other hand, those are also the possible the least likely to be motivated to vote; whereas those who do want to change stuff are the ones most motivated. One thing is certain, however: a Brexit win would be the outcome with the most interesting consequences.
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Mar 7, 2016 23:47
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Electronico6 posted:I got some bad news for you, London is an expensive shithole, and you should rethink your professional choices if you value your health and wallet. I've got a friend living there who's making a pretty drat good living and I've got a more sellable skillset than him. Also, I'm a web developer, and right now London is full-on in the middle of a bubble with ludicrous demand for the stuff I do. I figure I'll work 3-5 years then come back to the third world and buy several houses and never need to work again. Also Buenos Aires is as costly as London, if not more, and the wages are not paid in pounds. Also I agree with Cat Mattress, basically my question is what kind of voting intent are we looking at? Does the Brexit vote look like it's gonna have high attendance? Is it on the media 24/7 and people are talking about it, or is it something in the background?
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Mar 8, 2016 00:00
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Pochoclo posted:Can eurogoons tell me if Brexit is gonna happen or not? 
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Mar 8, 2016 00:20
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LemonDrizzle posted:Probably not - Remain has a consistent lead in the polls (see below), and a consistent large lead in phone polls, which are traditionally more accurate than online polls. On top of that the two Leave campaigns are spending most of their time fighting with each other and whining about the way the government is running the Remain campaign rather than putting their case. Thanks for the table, I had spent some time looking up polls but all I got were newspaper articles which were clearly cherry picking. That bit about the phone polls shows an interesting lead. I guess people who look up Brexit polls online are more likely to be interested in the subject to support it since someone who supported the status quo wouldn't be interested.
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Mar 8, 2016 00:25
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Pochoclo posted:Can eurogoons tell me if Brexit is gonna happen or not? Because I'm moving to London to work next month and it would really suck. Very unlikely, the economic damage would be enormous and there are no real advantages to leaving. Even if there is enough support in the population for it, a multi-billion dollar media campaign can give you any referendum result you want. Businesses want the UK to stay.
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Mar 8, 2016 00:26
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LemonDrizzle posted:Probably not - Remain has a consistent lead in the polls (see below), and a consistent large lead in phone polls, which are traditionally more accurate than online polls. On top of that the two Leave campaigns are spending most of their time fighting with each other and whining about the way the government is running the Remain campaign rather than putting their case. Excuse me, but why the gently caress are your pollsters publishing ONLINE POLLS? I mean in my recent endeavours in the UKMT I learned that pretty much your whole political system is run by people who have a very strange concept of reality, but ONLINE POLLS? No wonder all your pollsters go the general election results wrong. But to get back to the topic of Brexit, no one knows. It's close enough that one event can change it in either way (e.g. terrorist attack, utter failure in Brussels to accomplish something, some Eurocrat causing a massive shitstorm) which makes predicting it with any certainty impossible, but the default result is probably remain.
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Mar 8, 2016 00:28
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GaussianCopula posted:Excuse me, but why the gently caress are your pollsters publishing ONLINE POLLS? I mean in my recent endeavours in the UKMT I learned that pretty much your whole political system is run by people who have a very strange concept of reality, but ONLINE POLLS? No wonder all your pollsters go the general election results wrong. That's a quirk of this particular referendum. Normally the polls are done by phone. The problem is that people regularly lie to the pollsters here because they're aware their opinions are garbage, to the point where we have real headlines like "British public wrong about nearly everything, survey shows." British public dumb, news will be at 11.
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Mar 8, 2016 00:56
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Tesseraction posted:The problem is that people regularly lie to the pollsters here because they're aware their opinions are garbage, to the point where we have real headlines like "British public wrong about nearly everything, survey shows." The public being uninformed is very different from Shy Tories
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Mar 8, 2016 01:09
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Wait, aware that they're idiots? Or aware nobody apparently cares what they actually think? The former shows an amazing level of self-awareness, and the latter a breathtaking cynicism. I'm not sure which scares me more.
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Mar 8, 2016 01:11
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Spacewolf posted:Wait, aware that they're idiots? Or aware nobody apparently cares what they actually think? Neither, the Shy Tory factor is that people can be ashamed to vote Tory (and therefore not tell a pollster that they're going to) but do it anyway. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor
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Mar 8, 2016 01:23
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MrL_JaKiri posted:The public being uninformed is very different from Shy Tories I am aware, but I like to always sow the seed in peoples' minds that shy tories are shy because they are aware that Toryism is a garbage ideology used only by non-mammalian fauna.
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Mar 8, 2016 01:27
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GaussianCopula posted:Excuse me, but why the gently caress are your pollsters publishing ONLINE POLLS? I mean in my recent endeavours in the UKMT I learned that pretty much your whole political system is run by people who have a very strange concept of reality, but ONLINE POLLS? No wonder all your pollsters go the general election results wrong.
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Mar 8, 2016 01:43
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Tesseraction posted:I am aware, but I like to always sow the seed in peoples' minds that shy tories are shy because they are aware that Toryism is a garbage ideology used only by non-mammalian fauna. Or people jumping down their throats and calling them idiots, which nobody wants to hear. I don't think that's correct either, however. More likely that most people don't give a poo poo about politics, and will vote for the Tories despite their unpalatable policies because this is the alternative: 
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Mar 8, 2016 01:44
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FT writeup of the negotiations with Turkey (paywalled; google "Berlin/Ankara migration pact — wrecking ball or silver bullet?" and click the first hit to get around it): http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2bde51d6-e4a2-11e5-ac45-5c039e797d1c.html#axzz42GOVpA9hquote:Of all the big-bang solutions sought for Europe’s migration crisis, a draft pact crafted by Germany and Turkey on Monday may rank as the most ambitious and politically explosive.
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Mar 8, 2016 02:00
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Thanks for the article. It seems they're indeed pushing through a quota system, and that's nigh impossible to be accepted by everyone (hell, maybe you can't even get a majority of Eu 28 onboard).
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Mar 8, 2016 02:20
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Forget the countries like the Visegrad Four, countries like Austria or any along the Balkan route (who have taken in and are seriously discussing taking in some) probably won't go for this either. Hell, the article itself says that the 'willing' nations aren't all that willing to begin with at all. So at most, what I see happening if this bomb goes through and Erdogan gets to make the EU his bitch, is that Germany will take in all of the 'returned' refugees/migrants to Turkey, then the same thing will happen as it does right now: "Alright! We got another million here, which willing nation wants to take these refugees in?" *crickets* But yea, thanks for the article. Pretty detailed, as in Turkey pretty much confirming itself to be a shakedown artist in all this lol.
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Mar 8, 2016 03:07
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What a fuckup, honestly. Though to be fair it's difficult to criticise too heavily as I can't think of a solution to the current situation, and certainly not a viable one which is politically feasible.
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Mar 8, 2016 03:24
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Well, IMO the best thing to do would be for the EU, with Germany in particular, to somehow make it clear to Turkey: "Are you loving kidding me?! Forget this, this is so bad that we'd rather give our aid money to Greece instead and give those saps one more chance and a shot at all this, bye!" and show a willingness to walk away. If Erdogan really is that hot for that visa thing, he will relent and acquiesce to less, or alternatively agree to other demands in exchange. Because the truth of it is, he really needs to be reminded that he needs this about as much as the EU needs its relief from this crisis. Not to mention just how much he's reliant on NATO to have his back, what with Russia breathing down his neck lately and him pissing them off with shooting down that jet and all, and how you don't shake down allies for poo poo like this when you actually need them. But if Germany just tries to roll over for this, and if even France having clear objections won't be enough to put the breaks on this, then I gotta say they really are digging their own grave while giving Turkey a free pass. And when in the end this doesn't solve anything, and poo poo pops off again after a year or two of it being 'solved', it'll be another round of: "Why didn't other EU countries just do as we said way back then?! Where is your humanity?!"
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Mar 8, 2016 03:36
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Does this plan have to be approved by all the member states, or a majority, or is it binding now? Because I can't believe that even a majority would vote for this; most of them would view this as Germany's mess, therefore they should clean it up.
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Mar 8, 2016 04:45
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You all realize that the number of Syrians that try to reach Greece via boats will drop sharply once this deal is implemented and therefore the number of Syrians that need to be resettled from Turkey to the EU will be relatively low? At the beginning you might have two weeks or a month tops, in which refugees are still trying to brave the Aegean to reach Greek costs, but after that they will soon realize that such an endeavor is folly, because spending >1000€ for a round trip to Kos or Lesbos might be an interesting proposal for European tourists, but I doubt very many Syrians would fancy it, especially since there is the real risk that they drown. Furthermore it is important to understand that the Syrians that will get priority in the resettlement process are those, that already have family in the EU, which means there is a high probability that a good share of them would be able to secure their entry at a later point in time through family reunification processes anyway. And what is Turkey getting for taking care of the refugee problem? A bit more money (who cares? It's a rounding error in most national budgets), a few (according to reports it might be as few as two) negotiation chapters being reopened and the coveted visa-free travel, which means they face fewer bureaucratic hurdles when they want to travel to the EU, but does not give them any privileges as it relates to migrating to the EU (it's not free movement of labor). It all boils down to an agreement that Erdogan and Davutoglu can sell as proof that they are not distancing Turkey from the West/EU but continue to move Turkey closer to the EU, giving them ammunition against their critics at home. CrazyLoon posted:Well, IMO the best thing to do would be for the EU, with Germany in particular, to somehow make it clear to Turkey: "Are you loving kidding me?! Forget this, this is so bad that we'd rather give our aid money to Greece instead and give those saps one more chance and a shot at all this, bye!" and show a willingness to walk away. Turkey gets €6 billion in total or less than 2600€ per refugee they have in the country (2.3 million), while Greece already got €700 million, or €14000 per refugee that they are supposed to be able to shelter (50k). I'm all for loving over Greece, because they are a failed state that needs to be burned down to ashes so that it might have a chance to rise again, but it is insane to believe that this would be a viable long-term solution, because the EU would not be able to stomach those pictures forever.
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Mar 8, 2016 08:31
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GaussianCopula posted:You all realize that the number of Syrians that try to reach Greece via boats will drop sharply once this deal is implemented and therefore the number of Syrians that need to be resettled from Turkey to the EU will be relatively low? At the beginning you might have two weeks or a month tops, in which refugees are still trying to brave the Aegean to reach Greek costs, but after that they will soon realize that such an endeavor is folly, because spending >1000€ for a round trip to Kos or Lesbos might be an interesting proposal for European tourists, but I doubt very many Syrians would fancy it, especially since there is the real risk that they drown. You do realise that this gives Turkey a direct incentive and a future easy trigger to push as many refugees to Europe by boat every time they feel they want something from the EU? It's an open invitation for future blackmail and strengthens the position of a regime that has shown to be in direct opposition of EU values, a regime that willfully supports ISIS (since they are good at killing Kurds). And you seem to have a lot of faith in the administrative quality and honesty of all parties involved. I mean really, you really expect all the refugees to stay in their camps after a month because there is an EU-Turkish deal? As soon as the planes stop landing the boats will start up again. Lagotto fucked around with this message at 08:45 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 08:41
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Lagotto posted:You do realise that this gives Turkey a direct incentive and a future easy trigger to push as many refugees to Europe by boat every time they feel they want something from the EU? It's an open invitation for future blackmail and strengthens the position of a regime that has shown to be in direct opposition of EU values, a regime that willfully supports ISIS (since they are good at killing Kurds). And you seem to have a lot of faith in the administrative quality and honesty of all parties involved. It most certainly does not. It would introduce a mechanism that allows any refugee to be returned to Turkey from Greece and which is not time limited. Sure, you can argue that Turkey could just end the program at any time, but such an attempt at blackmail would be very obvious and the EU would have enough instruments to punish Turkey and Erdogan for it, e.g. by taking away visa free travel again, which would hurt Erdogan much more than it would hurt the EU. The biggest challenge to the deal will probably be the ECHR, which might not look to fondly on the idea of sending everyone back to Turkey, but let's deal with that issue when it becomes relevant. Oh and w.r.t supporting ISIS etc. are you favoring a complete isolation of the EU? Because I can't think of to many countries that are not doing some lovely stuff outside of the EU, maybe Canada and New Zealand but other than that? We are still reliant on Russian gas, Saudi oil and Chinese manufacturing. Lagotto posted:I mean really, you really expect all the refugees to stay in their camps after a month because there is an EU-Turkish deal? As soon as the planes stop landing the boats will start up again. Well, I doubt it as long as those refugees know that they will just go on a round trip to Kos our Lesbos. They might try to find a different route, but that too is a problem we can deal with when it arises. GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 08:55 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 08:51
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GaussianCopula posted:It most certainly does not. It would introduce a mechanism that allows any refugee to be returned to Turkey from Greece and which is not time limited. Sure, you can argue that Turkey could just end the program at any time, but such an attempt at blackmail would be very obvious and the EU would have enough instruments to punish Turkey and Erdogan for it, e.g. by taking away visa free travel again, which would hurt Erdogan much more than it would hurt the EU. Turkey is just seeing how far they can push the EU and how much they can get out of it in the process. Once the EU extends free visa travel, it will not be just as easily taken away again, why would you think that? That is not how the EU functions, otherwise we would have taken action against Rumania and Bukgaria ages ago for not following through on their monitoring programs. Add to this the poltical pressure from the millions of Turks already in EU and you can forget about taking away visa free travel. The biggest challenge will be the relocation since we havent even started yet with the first 100.000. This is a completely empty compromise, fueled by Merkel not being able to stomach the bad press from refugees being stuck in Greece. It's pr, nothing else, nobody gives a gently caress when refugees are stuck halfway Africa or if it are just millions of kids stuck on a dumpster in India or Brazil. quote:Oh and w.r.t supporting ISIS etc. are you favoring a complete isolation of the EU? Because I can't think of to many countries that are not doing some lovely stuff outside of the EU, maybe Canada and New Zealand but other than that? We are still reliant on Russian gas, Saudi oil and Chinese manufacturing. No of course not, how does that follow? Are we inviting all these countries to join the union? quote:Well, I doubt it as long as those refugees know that they will just go on a round trip to Kos our Lesbos. They might try to find a different route, but that too is a problem we can deal with when it arises. You are being terribly naive, there is no reason for refugees or immigrants to stay in Turkey. Some guy from Bangladesh has really nothing to lose by getting on a boat to Greece at the off chance they actually get properly registered both in Greece and Turkey. Edit. Freudian typo Lagotto fucked around with this message at 09:25 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 09:08
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Interesting graph from the WSJ which shows that reforms can have pretty significant impact on unemployment. Just wanted to post it as a follow up to my post in the old thread a few days ago.
GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 10:40 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 10:01
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GaussianCopula posted:You all realize that the number of Syrians that try to reach Greece via boats will drop sharply once this deal is implemented and therefore the number of Syrians that need to be resettled from Turkey to the EU will be relatively low? At the beginning you might have two weeks or a month tops, in which refugees are still trying to brave the Aegean to reach Greek costs, but after that they will soon realize that such an endeavor is folly, because spending >1000€ for a round trip to Kos or Lesbos might be an interesting proposal for European tourists, but I doubt very many Syrians would fancy it, especially since there is the real risk that they drown. LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 10:54 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 10:25
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GaussianCopula posted:Interesting graph from the WSJ which shows that reforms can have pretty significant impact on unemployment. Just wanted to post it as a follow up to my post in the old thread a few days ago. Jesus Christ, what a lovely graphic, what lovely journalism. Quick, someone overlay the unemployment rates of some cherry picked countries with "reforms"/random poo poo for the last 10 years, then cherry pick a couple events that back up your wild claims and ignore any other coincidental correlation that would contradict them. Journalism! e: those reforms might very well have something to do with those changes in unemployment, but you sure as hell can't tell that from doing some drive-by "chart analysis". GABA ghoul fucked around with this message at 10:29 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 10:25
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waitwhatno posted:Quick, someone overlay the unemployment rates of some cherry picked countries with "reforms"/random poo poo for the last 10 years, then cherry pick a couple events that back up your wild claims and ignore any other coincidental correlation that would contradict them. Journalism! 2003: US + allies invade Iraq, German unemployment rate goes down 2012: Benghazi, Spanish unemployment rate goes down 2015: Turkey shoots down Russian plane, Italian unemployment rate ???
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Mar 8, 2016 10:47
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Tesseraction posted:2003: US + allies invade Iraq, German unemployment rate goes down Donald Trump will become president and when he glasses the middle east, our European unemployment woes will finally be over.
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Mar 8, 2016 11:03
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Belgium's flemish nationalist party (who are also the largest party in the country's governing coalition) are not entirely happy with the proposed Turkish deal. Google translated because Flemish: http://m.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20160308_02170755quote:"Never will a government whose N-VA part, approve Turkey's membership of the European Union. Never.' That set MEPs Mark Demesmaeker and Sander Loones (N-VA) following negotiations between the EU and Turkey on the refugee crisis.
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Mar 8, 2016 11:07
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waitwhatno posted:Even if there is enough support in the population for it, a multi-billion dollar media campaign can give you any referendum result you want. This is bullshit HTH. Media campaigns are not mind control, especially with an issue like this which has been festering for literally decades. Jeb Bush spent a poo poo-ton on media and what good did that do him? See also the Scottish referendum, which came way closer to the wire than expected despite the media pretty much universally backing No. It's more likely the UK will vote to stay, but it's not a foregone conclusion by any means.
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Mar 8, 2016 11:22
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Being fair to the Jeb! campaign issue, the problem was his Super PAC, Right to Rise, which isn't officially allowed to collaborate with the candidate, was full of idiots and grifters who had no idea what they were doing. Money helps, but incompetence hurts harder.
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Mar 8, 2016 11:29
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In Greece near 100% of private media was in favour of a Yes in the July referendum, and that backfired utterly. There is probably some correlation with how trustworthy the media are popularly considered, the latest Eurobarometer (I think) polls show that Greek media have pretty much no trust with the people.
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Mar 8, 2016 11:34
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Sadly in the UK or population are pretty credulous. While my link about British people being wrong about nearly everything is unfair insofar as political leanings go, it does show they are massively uninformed. Doesn't help that the two biggest newspapers lie out their arse on a daily basis and no-one appears to notice this.
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Mar 8, 2016 11:42
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Effectively including Turkey in the Schengen area is the stupidest thing to come out of Europe in a long, long while. Sure we want the visa-free travel area to have a direct border with Syria, of course we do. After all, it's not like Daesh has claimed terror attacks in Europe, and threatened to do more. It's a political suicide. It's as insane as suggesting to build a direct bridge between Libya and Italy. I think they're trying to force a massive Brexit victory in the UK referendum, there's no other rational explanation for pushing for such disastrously asinine proposal. GaussianCopula posted:Interesting graph from the WSJ which shows that reforms can have pretty significant impact on unemployment. Just wanted to post it as a follow up to my post in the old thread a few days ago. This is all a lot of crock. A business doesn't hire people because they can then fire them, it hires people if it needs people. And it needs people if its order book is full. The so-called El Khomri law (Myriam El Khomri is not actually responsible for anything written in that law, she's just a disposable figurehead so that popular anger doesn't fall on darlings Valls and Macron) will have for only effect to increase unemployment, since all it does is allow employers to make employees work more, for less, and to fire them without having to justify anything, it also allows companies to perform large-scale downsizing for economic reasons even when they are not running a deficit. An employer who needs more manpower is not going to hire anyone, but to make his current workforce work more, without increasing their pay; and if anyone complains it's time to outsource to Bangladesh even though the company is profitable. It'll be just like the previous reforms from the same government, that supposedly aimed at reducing unemployment but only managed to increase it, like the CICE which on paper is basically bribing businesses to hire people, except they don't need to use that bribe money to actually hire people so they just don't. Basically for the amount of money the state spends to create one private sector job with the CICE, they could have instead created ten well-paid jobs in the public service domain -- and there are domains, notably justice, which really need more manpower (for reference, Germany has over double the number of per-capita judges and prosecutors), so don't come claiming it'd be useless and non-productive or that the French public sector is too large already.
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Mar 8, 2016 11:45
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LemonDrizzle posted:Belgium's flemish nationalist party (who are also the largest party in the country's governing coalition) are not entirely happy with the proposed Turkish deal. Google translated because Flemish: http://m.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20160308_02170755 Good move on their part to get a bit press coverage, that's not easy as an MEP these days, but they probably should stop to misrepresent the deal. The reopening of chapters simply means that the process will be started again on those topics and and is purely symbolic. The idea that Turkey would join the in the foreseeable future is laughable and anyone even remotely interested in the situation should be aware of that. LemonDrizzle posted:I think this is a very optimistic reading of the situation. You (and Merkel) hope that this will stop people from attempting the crossing (or shifting their attempts to Italy and trying to claim asylum there), and you hope Turkey will uphold its end of the deal even though Erdogan's plainly not negotiating in good faith and basically ignored the terms of the last deal that was struck with him. It's also a bit amusing that a few billion euros here or there is a rounding error in this context but a matter of grave importance in others. Sure, if the relocation part of the deal doesn't work out it's worth nothing and we will have to see whether Turkey is going to try to put bureaucratic roadblocks in the way of it working as envisioned, but to me it seems like the incentives for both sides are pretty well aligned on this issue now. Unless the EU proofs utterly incompetent (granted, that is a very real possibility) Erdogan will not get his prize, visa free travel, unless it works out for both sides. In my view this "Turkish victory" that is going through the press might even be part of the backroom deal between Berlin and Ankara, because I still can't see the big concessions that the EU made that would justify this very one-sided coverage. As for the money, it's €2 billion per year. If we could spend €2billion to make the Greek debt crisis go away, Wolfi himself would carry the suitcases full of 500€ notes to Athens.
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Mar 8, 2016 11:54
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Cat Mattress posted:Effectively including Turkey in the Schengen area is the stupidest thing to come out of Europe in a long, long while. Sure we want the visa-free travel area to have a direct border with Syria, of course we do. After all, it's not like Daesh has claimed terror attacks in Europe, and threatened to do more. It's a political suicide. It's as insane as suggesting to build a direct bridge between Libya and Italy. Most of Europe has visa-free travel with the US. Such an arrangement doesn't necessarily has to be a security risk.
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Mar 8, 2016 12:03
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Cat Mattress posted:Effectively including Turkey in the Schengen area is the stupidest thing to come out of Europe in a long, long while. Sure we want the visa-free travel area to have a direct border with Syria, of course we do. After all, it's not like Daesh has claimed terror attacks in Europe, and threatened to do more. It's a political suicide. It's as insane as suggesting to build a direct bridge between Libya and Italy. Maybe you should read up on what visa-free travel actually means, because last I checked the following countries were not understood to be "effectively included in Schengen" quote:Albania Andorra Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Australia Bahamas Barbados Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Brunei Canada Chile Colombia Costa Rica Dominica El Salvador Grenada Guatemala Honduras Hong Kong Israel Japan Macau Macedonia Malaysia Mauritius Mexico Moldova Monaco Montenegro New Zealand Nicaragua Palau Panama Paraguay Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Samoa San Marino Serbia Seychelles Singapore South Korea Taiwan Timor-Leste Tonga Trinidad and Tobago United Arab Emirates United States Uruguay Vanuatu Vatican City Venezuela Maybe you can spot the country on that list that has a direct border with Syria. GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 12:13 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 12:07
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Yeah if that deal doesn't involve net reduction of migrants coming in it's an absolute non-starter and simply proposing it is just Erdogan being a prick
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Mar 8, 2016 12:09
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icantfindaname posted:Yeah if that deal doesn't involve net reduction of migrants coming in it's an absolute non-starter and simply proposing it is just Erdogan being a prick Currently only about 50% of people arriving in Greece are Syrians. hth Additionally you should look at the incentives of people to take the boat route, given that Merkel said that it's probable that those trying it will not have a chance to use the legal channel later.
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Mar 8, 2016 12:10
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