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Lagotto
Nov 22, 2010

waitwhatno posted:

Most of Europe has visa-free travel with the US. Such an arrangement doesn't necessarily has to be a security risk.

No we dont, most of Europe needs an electronic visa, same as with Turkey. That is not the same as visa free at all, visa free of course implies a security risk.

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Pluskut Tukker
May 20, 2012

GaussianCopula posted:

Interesting graph from the WSJ which shows that reforms can have pretty significant impact on unemployment. Just wanted to post it as a follow up to my post in the old thread a few days ago.



Labour market reform is very much overrated as a solution to economic problems. Since 2012, we've had Draghi's promise to do 'whatever it takes' to save the euro effectively putting an end to the euro debt crisis, lower interest rates, QE, a falling euro, and lower oil prices, In Spain, there's been a a bailout of the banking sector and an easing of the rate of austerity. Moreover, the unemployment rate doesn't tell the whole story; there are now ~18 million people employed in Spain as compared to ~20 million in 2008, so the fall in unemployment is also in part explained by a reduction in the size of the labour force and migration.

There's an exhaustive analysis here (.pdf) which I'm just going to quote because I'm lazy:

quote:

Spain is no poster child for fiscal austerity and structural reforms. The country’s recent growth performance itself is less impressive than it appears at first sight, and owes a lot to an easing of fiscal and monetary policies and a (temporary) boost to consumption from lower inflation. There is little to suggest that structural reforms are prompting companies to move up the value-chain. Spain’s relatively strong export performance largely reflects cost suppression and a strong rise in exports of fuels, raw materials and food, some which will be reversed as domestic demand picks up. And the flipside of cost suppression has been stagnant nominal GDP and hence little deleveraging: Spain remains a highly indebted economy. The country faces the daunting challenge of trying to improve productivity in a climate of persistently low inflation, high levels of domestic and external debt, restrictive macroeconomic policies and serious demographic problems.

That's not to say that there isn't a whole lot of reform necessary, but that reform (depending on the country) should involve investments in education (particularly vocational education) as well as the public employment services, as well as more reliable unemployment benefits for flexible or marginally attached workers to promote mobility and prevent poverty. Simply focusing on more flexibilization doesn't help anyone in the long run, because in the best case it just creates lovely jobs that will be lost the moment the next recession hits.

Lagotto
Nov 22, 2010

GaussianCopula posted:

Maybe you can spot the country on that list that has a direct border with Syria.

Somehow I put a bit more trust in Israel being able to control its Syrian border.

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Lagotto posted:

No we dont, most of Europe needs an electronic visa, same as with Turkey. That is not the same as visa free at all, visa free of course implies a security risk.

It's kinda amazing how you manage to be so consistently wrong with everything you say. Does that ever make you wonder that maybe you don't really "have it all figured out", when people keep correcting you all the time with objective reality?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_Waiver_Program

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

LemonDrizzle posted:

Probably not - Remain has a consistent lead in the polls (see below), and a consistent large lead in phone polls, which are traditionally more accurate than online polls. On top of that the two Leave campaigns are spending most of their time fighting with each other and whining about the way the government is running the Remain campaign rather than putting their case.



My favorite alternate timeline:

Scotland votes for independence, goes through with it.
Scotland is automatically granted EU accession
England leaves the EU
Investments, corporations and people flee from England to Scotland to avoid complications stemming from a radical change in law
Scotland becomes the dominant British power
England votes to join Scotland
The United Kingdom of Scotland and Assorted Peripheries is established
The Stuart dynasty regains its rightful throne, the Windsor traitors are summarily executed

Lagotto
Nov 22, 2010

waitwhatno posted:

It's kinda amazing how you manage to be so consistently wrong with everything you say. Does that ever make you wonder that maybe you don't really "have it 8 figured out", when people keep correcting you all the time with objective reality?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_Waiver_Program

Like I said, you need an electronic one.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_System_for_Travel_Authorization

quote:

The Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) is a United States government requirement (mandated by theImplementing Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007) for participating travelers from Visa Waiver Program (VWP) countries. ESTA is an automated system that determines the eligibility of visitors to travel to the U.S. under the Visa Waiver Program (VWP). Authorization via ESTA does not determine whether a traveler is admissible to the United States. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers determine admissibility upon travelers’ arrival. The ESTA application collects biographic information and answers to VWP eligibility questions. ESTA applications may be submitted at any time prior to travel, though it is recommended that travelers apply as soon as they begin preparing travel plans or prior to purchasing airline tickets.

What else have I been wrong about? You might not like my assessments or predictions but please make a case as to why I am wrong if you want to engage.

Lagotto fucked around with this message at 12:59 on Mar 8, 2016

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
That's not a visa.

Lagotto
Nov 22, 2010

steinrokkan posted:

That's not a visa.

What's the material difference? It is literally the same system Turkey has in place with the EU.

See also E-VISA.

YF-23
Feb 17, 2011

My god, it's full of cat!


To make a more serious post wrt labour laws/unemployment: Of course labour laws will have an impact on the labour-related figures, and you know what, neoliberal reforms just might bring unemployment down. The problem is that, whether they achieve that, and regardless of the scale of their effect on unemployment, they do it by actively changing what having a job means. Having a job gives you a certain amount of things such as monetary remuneration, contributions towards you future pension, a varying degree of job security, and those things form the gap between being employed and being unemployed. These reforms that GC loves so much attempt to reduce unemployment by closing the gap between being employed and being unemployed. That's loving rear end-backwards and ultimately hurts everyone as a whole, and it's thanks to stuff like that in spite of much lowered unemployment figures in a lot of countries since the crisis blew up, it still feels like the same crisis is still ongoing or that things are still worse than they were 8 years ago.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Lagotto posted:

What's the material difference? It is literally the same system Turkey has in place with the EU.

See also E-VISA.

You can visit Turkey on special e-Visa, but you can't go from Turkey into Schengen without proper visa. Turkey is an Annex I country, with no special privileges.

Lagotto
Nov 22, 2010

steinrokkan posted:

You can visit Turkey on special e-Visa, but you can't go from Turkey into Schengen without proper visa. Turkey is an Annex I country, with no special privileges.

Your point being? That there is indeed a visa requirement for Schengen citizens for visiting the United States and Turkey? Cause then we can end the derail. The US would never allow visa free entry post 9-11 because of the security risks, implying that visa free entry does not increase the security risks is dumb.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Lagotto posted:

Your point being? That there is indeed a visa requirement for Schengen citizens for visiting the United States and Turkey? Cause then we can end the derail. The US would never allow visa free entry post 9-11 because of the security risks, implying that visa free entry does not increase the security risks is dumb.

Are you dense? Your claim was that "No we dont, most of Europe needs an electronic visa, same as with Turkey. That is not the same as visa free at all, visa free of course implies a security risk." The point is that Turkey has effectively waived their visa requirement for EU states, so even if they call it "e-Visa" it's hardly a visa compared to the full process required if you try to cross the border in the opposite direction (if you need to qualify something by adding a prefix it signifies a major difference from the original concept).

If your argument is "The US actually requires visa from EU citizens because Turkey has something similar and there is the word visa buried somewhere in their system," I wonder if you sometimes demand to be allowed entry into a foreign country by waving your Visa credit card around.

Lagotto
Nov 22, 2010

steinrokkan posted:

Are you dense? Your claim was that "No we dont, most of Europe needs an electronic visa, same as with Turkey. That is not the same as visa free at all, visa free of course implies a security risk." The point is that Turkey has waived their visa requirement for EU states, so even if they call it "e-Visa" it's not visa (if you need to qualify something by adding a prefix it signifies a major difference from the original concept).

If your argument is "The US actually requires visa from EU citizens because Turkey has something similar and there is the word visa buried somewhere in their system," I wonder if you sometimes demand to be allowed entry into a foreign country by waving your Visa credit card around.

Maybe scroll back a few posts to what the discussion is about before you butt in.

waitwhatno posted:

Most of Europe has visa-free travel with the US. Such an arrangement doesn't necessarily has to be a security risk.

Lagotto posted:

No we dont, most of Europe needs an electronic visa, same as with Turkey. That is not the same as visa free at all, visa free of course implies a security risk.

The point is that the only difference between a paper visa and an e-visa is the automation. Entry into the US and Turkey is not visa free at all.

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

waitwhatno posted:

Most of Europe has visa-free travel with the US. Such an arrangement doesn't necessarily has to be a security risk.

And? The whole point of Schengen isn't that it's visa-free, it's that it's passport-free.

You can cross from Syria into Turkey, then take a bridge over the Bosphorus, and from there drive to Europe. Migrants take boats because Greece closed their land border with Turkey, not because there's no way to move on foot.

When boarding an airliner, there's a lot of security measures that, no matter how easily bypassed they are, do not exist when you're just crossing a Schengen border in a car.

Have you crossed Schengen borders in a car? I have. Guess how many uniformed people asking to check my papers, or even just being around at all, I have seen when doing so.

0

There's still checks when a European wants to go in the USA. For example:

quote:

As of January 2016, the visa waiver does not apply in cases where a person had previously traveled to Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria or Yemen on or after 1 March 2011 or for those who are dual citizens of Iran, Iraq, Sudan or Syria.

Even with the VWP, you still need a biometric passport, what is effectively an electronic visa, a justification for your visit, and an onward or return ticket proving that you will leave within three months. How many of these things do you need to cross Schengen borders?

0

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Cat Mattress posted:

And? The whole point of Schengen isn't that it's visa-free, it's that it's passport-free. You can cross from Syria into Turkey, then take a bridge over the Bosphorus, and from there drive to Europe. Migrants take boats because Greece closed their land border with Turkey, not because there's no way to move on foot.
0

Last I checked a visa waiver (placing a country into Annex II) doesn't put you into Schengen. There's still a border check, you know.

When I crossed from Ukraine to Slovakia I, a Schengen citizen, was still pretty thoroughly inspected, all my luggage unpacked and each item examined individually, and I was questioned on basic questions of what I did in the country etc. That was just to curb smuggling - I can only imagine what they would do investigating a person without the freedom of movement status crossing from a potentially dangerous country. The Schengen checks can be as tough as you want them to be.

steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 14:22 on Mar 8, 2016

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

Cat Mattress posted:

Effectively including Turkey in the Schengen area is the stupidest thing to come out of Europe in a long, long while. Sure we want the visa-free travel area to have a direct border with Syria, of course we do.


Cat Mattress posted:

And? The whole point of Schengen isn't that it's visa-free, it's that it's passport-free.

Are multiple people using your account?

Geriatric Pirate
Apr 25, 2008

by Nyc_Tattoo

YF-23 posted:

To make a more serious post wrt labour laws/unemployment: Of course labour laws will have an impact on the labour-related figures, and you know what, neoliberal reforms just might bring unemployment down. The problem is that, whether they achieve that, and regardless of the scale of their effect on unemployment, they do it by actively changing what having a job means. Having a job gives you a certain amount of things such as monetary remuneration, contributions towards you future pension, a varying degree of job security, and those things form the gap between being employed and being unemployed. These reforms that GC loves so much attempt to reduce unemployment by closing the gap between being employed and being unemployed. That's loving rear end-backwards and ultimately hurts everyone as a whole, and it's thanks to stuff like that in spite of much lowered unemployment figures in a lot of countries since the crisis blew up, it still feels like the same crisis is still ongoing or that things are still worse than they were 8 years ago.
How is it "backwards" to enact reforms so that a country produces as much as it consumes? Wages aren't just some arbitrary number the government controls but instead a measure (admittedly not a perfect one) of the productivity of employees. If for whatever reason an employee isn't producing enough value any more, why should they still be entitled to remuneration for the old value they produced? Companies aren't firing people because it's fun to fire people, they fire people because they're not making money any more. In many European countries the problem is that the truth is too difficult to accept, so instead of making any hard decisions, or let high unemployment dictate these decisions, governments try to cover the gap between productivity and wages itself by hiring a lot of people, taking on too much debt in the process.

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Lagotto posted:

What's the material difference? It is literally the same system Turkey has in place with the EU.

See also E-VISA.

ESTA is a formal check to confirm that you qualify for the visa waiver program. It is fully automatic and no decision is made whether you are allowed to enter the US or not. If you are not eligible for VWP, ESTA informs you beforehand, so that you can apply for a visa.

A visa is given out by embassies/consulates, after checking your eligibility to enter the country. The process often involves a personal interview, presenting hotel reservations, financial statements, etc. You can be denied a visa for almost any reason.

The practical difference is that with visa-free travel, you can just go online, whip out your credit card, fill out the online form stating that you are not a terrorist and that you do not have syphilis and hop on a plane. That's what Turkey wants.

YF-23
Feb 17, 2011

My god, it's full of cat!


Geriatric Pirate posted:

How is it "backwards" to enact reforms so that a country produces as much as it consumes? Wages aren't just some arbitrary number the government controls but instead a measure (admittedly not a perfect one) of the productivity of employees. If for whatever reason an employee isn't producing enough value any more, why should they still be entitled to remuneration for the old value they produced? Companies aren't firing people because it's fun to fire people, they fire people because they're not making money any more. In many European countries the problem is that the truth is too difficult to accept, so instead of making any hard decisions, or let high unemployment dictate these decisions, governments try to cover the gap between productivity and wages itself by hiring a lot of people, taking on too much debt in the process.

If wages truly were relative to productivity, you have to explain the wage stagnation from the '70s onwards somehow. I'm not buying the narrative that there's just less money to shuffle around, that is only true if you exclude the massive gains in relative wealth made by the rich (which the political establishments in most countries are glad to do, since you cannot really become part of that establishment without making friends with those sort of people).

Lagotto
Nov 22, 2010

waitwhatno posted:

ESTA is a formal check to confirm that you qualify for the visa waiver program. It is fully automatic and no decision is made whether you are allowed to enter the US or not. If you are not eligible for VWP, ESTA informs you beforehand, so that you can apply for a visa.

A visa is given out by embassies/consulates, after checking your eligibility to enter the country. The process often involves a personal interview, presenting hotel reservations, financial statements, etc. You can be denied a visa for almost any reason.

The practical difference is that with visa-free travel, you can just go online, whip out your credit card, fill out the online form stating that you are not a terrorist and that you do not have syphilis and hop on a plane. That's what Turkey wants.

I know that is what Turkey wants, but the point is that this implies a security risk, so that is not something that in my opinion we should want. Your claim is that that is not necessarily true since Schengen has free visa travel to the States. I am sorry but that is not the case, as you can tell from your own post. And that is not even mentioning the ungodly amount of citizen data Schengen is pooring into the US databases and the extensive NSA databases the e-applications are crossed referenced with.

Griffen
Aug 7, 2008
This might seem a bit tin-foil hat worthy, but considering all I've read about in Turkey and Erdogan's shenanigans, isn't it possible that with the proposed Turkey-EU migrant deal Erdogan can exploit this rather easily? What's to stop him from taking a bunch of Syrians in Turkey, stick them on boats supplied by "people smugglers" (aka AKP thugs), send them to Lesbos, bring them back, and then demand the EU take them in? This guy is pretty foot-loose and fancy free with the truth when it comes to ISIS, the Kurds, bombing his own people, press freedom, etc., so why should we expect him in any way to be honest about how many people he had to "heroically" stop from making the "terrible" crossing to Greece? The fact that Germany would even consider this to be a rational deal at all is mind boggling. The longer this migrant crisis goes on, the more Merkel starts to look more and more reactionary (as in responding to events rather than taking the initiative, not in terms of political leaning) and more desperate for someone to save her bacon. I mean, after the Paris attacks, how is it even politically feasible to suggest lowering security checks between the EU and a known ISIS transit country (Turkey)?

Geriatric Pirate
Apr 25, 2008

by Nyc_Tattoo

YF-23 posted:

If wages truly were relative to productivity, you have to explain the wage stagnation from the '70s onwards somehow. I'm not buying the narrative that there's just less money to shuffle around, that is only true if you exclude the massive gains in relative wealth made by the rich (which the political establishments in most countries are glad to do, since you cannot really become part of that establishment without making friends with those sort of people).

So many things here so I'm going to be a bit disorganized in my response:
1) The stagnating wages phenomenon is mainly a US phenomenon and, while partly valid, misses a lot of things such as rising healthcare costs and so on which form a part of compensation as well as an increasing population (wage growth is measured relative to US wages, not to the Mexican wages that Mexican immigrants to the US were originally paid) and so on. But it's a bit more complicated than just stagnating wages.

Secondly, are we talking from the 70s now or the recent crisis?
2) In the EU, you don't really see the same gap to the same extent. Especially the EU's biggest crisis countries (Greece, Spain, Portugal) saw an opposite gap forming, at least relative to the rest of the EU, where wages rose more than productivity (both variables relative to the rest of the EU) since the 1990s.

3) With regards to the rich, the idea that the rich somehow benefited from the Euro crisis is crazy. Look at what's happened to the Greek stock market (measure of wealth for the rich) compared to wages and employment. Wages and employment might have fallen, a lot, but more than 70% of stock market wealth has been wiped out. I'm not saying the rich are worse off than the poor, but the idea that they've benefited from the crisis or made massive wealth gains is wrong.

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


Geriatric Pirate posted:

So many things here so I'm going to be a bit disorganized in my response:
1) The stagnating wages phenomenon is mainly a US phenomenon and, while partly valid, misses a lot of things such as rising healthcare costs and so on which form a part of compensation as well as an increasing population (wage growth is measured relative to US wages, not to the Mexican wages that Mexican immigrants to the US were originally paid) and so on. But it's a bit more complicated than just stagnating wages.

Secondly, are we talking from the 70s now or the recent crisis?
2) In the EU, you don't really see the same gap to the same extent. Especially the EU's biggest crisis countries (Greece, Spain, Portugal) saw an opposite gap forming, at least relative to the rest of the EU, where wages rose more than productivity (both variables relative to the rest of the EU) since the 1990s.

3) With regards to the rich, the idea that the rich somehow benefited from the Euro crisis is crazy. Look at what's happened to the Greek stock market (measure of wealth for the rich) compared to wages and employment. Wages and employment might have fallen, a lot, but more than 70% of stock market wealth has been wiped out. I'm not saying the rich are worse off than the poor, but the idea that they've benefited from the crisis or made massive wealth gains is wrong.

The political crisis is in the USA and the core Western Euro countries, the periphery countries have problems of their own of course, but the shattering of the neoliberal consensus is something endogenous to the economic and political core. Stagnating wages in the US is a real and massive problem, and is a reflection of political dysfunction rather than any necessary economic conditions (why are healthcare and education costs rising? and also no, population growth is a bullshit answer, US population grew about the same percent from 1940-1970 as it did from 1970-2000) As for Western Europe, France and Germany have their own political issues with multiculturalism which they do not appear prepared to solve anytime soon

icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 15:21 on Mar 8, 2016

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Lagotto posted:

I know that is what Turkey wants, but the point is that this implies a security risk, so that is not something that in my opinion we should want. Your claim is that that is not necessarily true since Schengen has free visa travel to the States. I am sorry but that is not the case, as you can tell from your own post. And that is not even mentioning the ungodly amount of citizen data Schengen is pooring into the US databases and the extensive NSA databases the e-applications are crossed referenced with.

I don't know this for sure, but I think that the visa process is mostly there to filter out illegal immigrants/social system abuse. (confirming that you have financial independence, have health insurance, a return ticket, no intentions of working illegally, etc.)

The security aspect of international travel is mostly realized through biometric passports, finger print readers, no-fly lists, international terrorist databases, etc. Mostly stuff that can be done without visas.

Freezer
Apr 20, 2001

The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.
The way I see this plan, the money and the visa waivers aren't that much of an issue for now, and a relatively reasonable concession IF they stopped refugee flow completely.

The big sticking points in my opinion:

A) It creates a perverse incentive on Turkey's side to contibue allowing as many Syrians to be shipped to Greece as possible, as even if they're returned that would mean a net export of Syrian refugees to Europe.

B) Who gets to take on the refugees received on the one-for-one system? Are they trying the quotas again? Everyone gets to go to Germany?

C) This could of course backfire horribly, say under a scenario where Turkey starts a proper war in the south vs Assad/Kurds and then we see a bunch of refugees with Turkish passports making their way to Europe. Can Kurds in southern Turkey apply for asylum?

The more I think about it, the messier it seems. Hell, I think GC's evil plan of sinking the loving boats as deterrance has a better chance to succeed than this.

Freezer fucked around with this message at 17:20 on Mar 8, 2016

Extreme0
Feb 28, 2013

I dance to the sweet tune of your failure so I'm never gonna stop fucking with you.

Continue to get confused and frustrated with me as I dance to your anger.

As I expect nothing more from ya you stupid runt!


steinrokkan posted:

My favorite alternate timeline:

Scotland votes for independence, goes through with it.
Scotland is automatically granted EU accession
England leaves the EU
Investments, corporations and people flee from England to Scotland to avoid complications stemming from a radical change in law
Scotland becomes the dominant British power
England votes to join Scotland
The United Kingdom of Scotland and Assorted Peripheries is established
The Stuart dynasty regains its rightful throne, the Windsor traitors are summarily executed

Actually my timeline would be to just have the good parts of England and Wales join.

The rest can just become a large waste dump.

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.
In about 90 min Slovenia will be the first country to #goBacktoSchengen (the stated goal of the EC) by requiring anyone who wants to enter the country from a non-Schengen country (especially Serbia) to have either a valid Schengen-visa or to be a refugee who wants to apply for asylum in Slovenia.

For some strange reason AFP chose to illustrate this news with barbed wire instead of some more friendly stock images

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/707282237792907264

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

steinrokkan posted:

Last I checked a visa waiver (placing a country into Annex II) doesn't put you into Schengen. There's still a border check, you know.

When I crossed from Ukraine to Slovakia I, a Schengen citizen, was still pretty thoroughly inspected, all my luggage unpacked and each item examined individually, and I was questioned on basic questions of what I did in the country etc. That was just to curb smuggling - I can only imagine what they would do investigating a person without the freedom of movement status crossing from a potentially dangerous country. The Schengen checks can be as tough as you want them to be.

Ukraine to Slovakia? :raise:

Realized halfway through you probably meant by plane but decided to keep the question

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

GreyjoyBastard posted:

Ukraine to Slovakia? :raise:

Realized halfway through you probably meant by plane but decided to keep the question

There's a very popular border crossing with regular bus service between the railroad station in Uzhorod and the rail terminal in Michalovce, Slovakia.

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.

Extreme0 posted:

Actually my timeline would be to just have the good parts of England and Wales join.

The rest can just become a large waste dump.

I always like the way Scottish nationalists say they'd let in Wales and the north to show how cool and inclusive they are, but either conspicuously avoid mentioning Northern Ireland or are openly hostile to the notion that they would have to shoulder any responsibility there despite having much stronger cultural links.

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.
I'm just going to leave this here for you to ponder the implications

https://twitter.com/yanisvaroufakis/status/707485360805253120

#nobel2016

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
So apparently the impetus for the new Turkish deal with resettlement and visa-free Schengen access for Turkish citizens didn't come from the Turks at all - it was pushed by Merkel, behind everyone else's back: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f6c982ec-e54e-11e5-ac45-5c039e797d1c.html#axzz42OW2bIUR

quote:

Behind the backs of some her closest European allies, Angela Merkel, German chancellor, struck a deal with her Turkish counterpart that could very well end the influx of refugees washing up on Europe’s shores — but at a very high price, including an extra €3bn in aid and a visa-free travel scheme.
...
It started with a normal, even promising EU process. On Sunday afternoon EU ambassadors in Brussels put the final touches to a summit deal that Donald Tusk, European Council president, saw as a turning point. The western Balkan migration route would be closing and Turkey had agreed to take back non-Syrian migrants. Europe’s tougher approach was taking shape.
A few hours later, and a kilometre down the road, Ms Merkel met Ahmet Davutoglu and Mark Rutte, her Turkish and Dutch counterparts, and blew that deal apart. During six hours of talks fuelled by a 1am take-out of Turkish pide, or pizza, the trio explored a bigger idea to turn back every migrant reaching Greek islands.
Unlike Mr Tusk’s version, that came with a higher Turkish pricetag: money, visas, and large-scale resettlement of Syrians from Turkey to Europe. Ms Merkel’s bet was that the deal’s arresting potential would help her at home in state elections next week.
In the event, only a half-deal was possible, mixing parts of the old and new proposal and leaving details to be sorted. During the process, confusion reigned in the corridors; presidents and premiers bristled at being confronted with Turkey’s “new ideas” as they arrived; frustrations were palpable.
EU leaders held a summit with Turkey's prime minister on March 7 in order to back closing the Balkans migrant route and urge Ankara to accept deportations of large numbers of economic migrants from overstretched Greece. The European Union is hardening its stance in a bid to defuse the worst refugee crisis since World War II by increasingly putting the onus on Turkey and EU member Greece in return for aid. / AFP / POOL / OLIVIER HOSLETOLIVIER HOSLET/AFP/Getty Images
The EU institutions that have spearheaded membership talks with Turkey for two decades felt badly undercut. One senior European diplomat directly involved in Turkey discussions said they had “never seen a situation where the EU institutions were so undermined and stabbed in the back”.
“The Germans are in a complete state of panic and disarray,” he said.
Another top adviser to the leader of a big EU country said: “People are patient. There is a willingness to tolerate this for Ms Merkel because nobody wants her weakened. But she humiliated a lot of people.”
Another eurozone diplomat called her methods “brutal”.
It was “a unilateral, unco-operative approach and there will be a price for this one day”, the diplomat said.
...
Although it was sprung on fellow leaders Monday morning, officials said Berlin had been covertly working in parallel to Mr Tusk’s effort for days.
Publicly, Ms Merkel has insisted the big-bang proposal came from Mr Davutoglu. But during the preceding week, German negotiators conducted side talks with Ankara, pressing for bolder steps.
At a pre-summit meeting with François Hollande, French president, on Friday, the chancellor mentioned her concerns that Mr Tusk’s deal would not grapple with returning Syrian refugees to Turkey — but gave no indication she was laying the groundwork for a summit surprise.
...
For weeks, Mr Tusk has been pushing an Austria-backed plan to “close” the western Balkan route, a scheme that centred on sealing Greece’s border with Macedonia and convincing countries to the north to stop “waving through” economic migrants.
Ms Merkel had fought the plan, largely for symbolic reasons: she has resisted domestic pressure to cap migrant arrivals and has been engaged in a bitter political war with Werner Faymann, the Austrian chancellor who has repeatedly suggested Ms Merkel would follow his lead.
By shutting down the ability of migrants to move north, Mr Tusk’s allies believe they closed the window on Ankara’s ability to negotiate — if refugees were stuck in Greece, Turkey’s importance would dissipate.
Although Ms Merkel bristled at Mr Tusk’s rhetoric about closing the corridor, it may end up being her salvation — particularly if the Turkey deal collapses. As much as the sealing of borders to the south has offended her principles, it has also begun to stem the influx into southern Germany. That, in the end, is what the embattled chancellor needs.

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

khwarezm posted:

I always like the way Scottish nationalists say they'd let in Wales and the north to show how cool and inclusive they are, but either conspicuously avoid mentioning Northern Ireland or are openly hostile to the notion that they would have to shoulder any responsibility there despite having much stronger cultural links.

Probably their position on Ulster is that, if anything, it should rejoin with Ireland.

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine

Cat Mattress posted:

Probably their position on Ulster is that, if anything, it should rejoin with Ireland.

Northern Ireland runs around a £7bn a year deficit. Its a huge money sink. Any relatively recent polls in Ireland show the majority of the population don't want it back, Scotland can have it.

Freezer
Apr 20, 2001

The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

LemonDrizzle posted:

So apparently the impetus for the new Turkish deal with resettlement and visa-free Schengen access for Turkish citizens didn't come from the Turks at all - it was pushed by Merkel, behind everyone else's back: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f6c982ec-e54e-11e5-ac45-5c039e797d1c.html#axzz42OW2bIUR

Haha, Merkel is truly the Frank Underwood of European politics. It would be hilarious if she knew that deal was never gonna be agreed to, but alienated everyone by pushing for it just to get an election boost.

Freezer fucked around with this message at 14:14 on Mar 9, 2016

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

Freezer posted:

Haha, Merkel is truly the Frank Underwood of European politics. It would be hilarious if she knew that deal was never gonna be agreed to, but alienated everyone by pushing for it just to get an election boost.

Merkel most certainly is no Frank Underwood or can you imagine her having sex with a 20 something year old reporter? (If you can, I'm sorry because that image will haunt you for the rest of your life)

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

GaussianCopula posted:

Merkel most certainly is no Frank Underwood or can you imagine her having sex with a 20 something year old reporter? (If you can, I'm sorry because that image will haunt you for the rest of your life)

Don't forget the threesome with her security detail!

Dawncloack
Nov 26, 2007
ECKS DEE!
Nap Ghost
.

Dawncloack fucked around with this message at 14:57 on Mar 9, 2016

CrazyLoon
Aug 10, 2015

"..."

Griffen posted:

This might seem a bit tin-foil hat worthy, but considering all I've read about in Turkey and Erdogan's shenanigans, isn't it possible that with the proposed Turkey-EU migrant deal Erdogan can exploit this rather easily? What's to stop him from taking a bunch of Syrians in Turkey, stick them on boats supplied by "people smugglers" (aka AKP thugs), send them to Lesbos, bring them back, and then demand the EU take them in? This guy is pretty foot-loose and fancy free with the truth when it comes to ISIS, the Kurds, bombing his own people, press freedom, etc., so why should we expect him in any way to be honest about how many people he had to "heroically" stop from making the "terrible" crossing to Greece? The fact that Germany would even consider this to be a rational deal at all is mind boggling. The longer this migrant crisis goes on, the more Merkel starts to look more and more reactionary (as in responding to events rather than taking the initiative, not in terms of political leaning) and more desperate for someone to save her bacon. I mean, after the Paris attacks, how is it even politically feasible to suggest lowering security checks between the EU and a known ISIS transit country (Turkey)?

You're actually right that Erdogan is completely untrustworthy and this deal is basically giving him license to run roughshod on the EU in the future.

But for the short-term, it will give Merkel the political illusion of 'fixing' this thing, by saying: "Hah! Take THAT Austria! Look at me, makin' dealz with Turkey and no more immigrants stuck in Greece nyah!" and not realizing that in 1 or 2 years, when all those refugees get shuttled from Turkey to Germany, the rest of the EU will still be saying: "gently caress off" to Merkel's demands to redistribute them.

Then she gets to do another song and dance of: "How can the EU be so cruel while Germans are so self-sacrificing?!" and have her poll numbers remain steady for a little while longer, as she pretends she's doing anything but being bent over and hosed over by Erdogan's circumcised cock.

GaussianCopula posted:

In about 90 min Slovenia will be the first country to #goBacktoSchengen (the stated goal of the EC) by requiring anyone who wants to enter the country from a non-Schengen country (especially Serbia) to have either a valid Schengen-visa or to be a refugee who wants to apply for asylum in Slovenia.

For some strange reason AFP chose to illustrate this news with barbed wire instead of some more friendly stock images

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/707282237792907264

How dare you bismirch that fine razor wire we erected all along our border to Croatia! Don't you know how much wildlife and flooded vegetation it stopped from migrating from down there? :colbert:

CrazyLoon fucked around with this message at 15:46 on Mar 9, 2016

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GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

CSU(hillbilly party; the party that has been ruling the state of Bavaria for all of its history) demands for Turkey to be declared a secure state, before any visa-free travel agreement can take place. They don't want any Turkish/Kurdish tourist to come here and apply for asylum from the Erdogan regime.

Meta irony on top of meta irony. It's meta all the way down.

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