|
GaussianCopula posted:A) Doing the same thing and expecting different results is the definition of insanity. Exactly my point. GaussianCopula posted:B) The situation is not reversed. The ECB is continuing to stimulate the German economy, or to be more precise, it's financing the refugee crisis/Wolfi's Schwarze Null. They just had to expand the types of debt they are allowed to buy under QE because there is too little German debt available. The German economy really doesn't need any further stimulus or lower financing costs for the government. That cheap money has to go somewhere, and it's more likely to be in financial assets or housing if government debt is unavailable. Maybe Germany has sufficiently strong macroprudential policies that it can contain bubbles, but that's not likely to be the case everywhere. GaussianCopula posted:C) Southern Europe lacks the economic infrastructure that can be stimulated. Certainly not monetarily, as is becoming clear. But the issue is that we've heard so much about Southern European irresponsibility that people forget just how much the ECB-fuelled credit bubble set the GIIPS up for the crisis. Also, this action by the ECB isn't about GIIPS government finances, but about getting banks lending again. Outside of Greece govt financing is not an immediate issue and government spending is anyway constrained by the stronger governance of member state finances and economic policies introduced after the crisis.
|
#
?
Mar 11, 2016 17:42
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 26, 2024 20:05 |
|
|
GaussianCopula posted:At this point the most important question is probably which bubble is Mario fueling and how can you profit from its burst. For Germany at least, it's probably real estate. LemonDrizzle posted:Coverage of Draghi's expanded QE program in the German press: Double-digits "inflation" for assets to put your savings in really screw over the younger generation and will probably hasten the decline of the social security systems because it makes them unable to provision for retirement effectively.
|
|
#
?
Mar 12, 2016 17:45
|
|
!!!!Our savings!!!!
|
Randler posted:For Germany at least, it's probably real estate. Except that Germany is the only European country with a sane rental market that is not dirt poor...?
|
|
#
?
Mar 12, 2016 18:29
|
|
|
Europe 2016: a newborn baby being washed over a puddle
|
|
#
?
Mar 12, 2016 21:54
|
|
LemonDrizzle posted:Europe 2016: a newborn baby being washed over a puddle I really love that picture, because it can be used by anyone to accuse the group/person they disagree with Hate Merkel? "If she had not invited them, they would not be stuck in Greece now!" Hate Orban/Faymann? "Open your borders, how can you see this picture and not act!" Hate Greece? "Why is Greece doing nothing to help these people?" Hate refugees that stay at the border? "Why are they doing this to their child, they should go to one of the regular refugee camps in Greece!" But really, why is it worse that a child has to be washed in under these circumstances in Europe than in Africa or Asia? Where does the believe that European soil has some magic property that prevents human suffering come from, given the history of this continent? I mean, really, we are responsible for this man:  
GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 22:21 on Mar 12, 2016 |
|
|
#
?
Mar 12, 2016 22:13
|
|
|
People have polled six continental European countries about Brexit. https://www.aqmen.ac.uk/sites/default/files/TheViewFromTheContinent_REPORT.pdf All polled countries gave a majority in favor of the UK staying in the Union, however this varies from a short majority (56%, France) to an overwhelming one (81%, Spain). There's also some more in-depth statistics. For example, in France, older people are less favorable to UK remaining than the younger people; but in Poland it's the contrary, older people are really gung-ho about Britain staying. Germany and Ireland think a Brexit would have dire consequences for Britain, but in most countries they mostly think it wouldn't have any real impact. The French are also the most favorable to leaving the EU themselves, though they're still a lot less eurosceptic than the Britons.
|
|
#
?
Mar 12, 2016 22:49
|
|
|
So, to what extent is the support for Brexit matter of "You go girl", compared to "loving Englishmen, I wish they'd go away and die in a ditch"
|
|
#
?
Mar 12, 2016 22:52
|
|
|
im afraid that if the brexit goes through i wont be able to buy cheap cheddar and proper bacon any more
|
|
#
?
Mar 12, 2016 22:53
|
|
|
I think it's mostly a divide between if you consider the EU collapsing on itself like a house of cards a good or a bad thing.
|
|
#
?
Mar 12, 2016 23:24
|
|
|
Xoidanor posted:I think it's mostly a divide between if you consider the EU collapsing on itself like a house of cards a good or a bad thing. Do you mean that UK staying in will trigger the collapse? Or that it leaving would trigger the collapse? Because a compelling argument can be made for both scenarios...
|
|
#
?
Mar 12, 2016 23:37
|
|
|
Freezer posted:Do you mean that UK staying in will trigger the collapse? Or that it leaving would trigger the collapse? Because a compelling argument can be made for both scenarios... The collapse was triggered in 1973.
|
|
#
?
Mar 12, 2016 23:43
|
|
|
Summer last year was when the EU entered its death throes, a succesful Brexit would be nothing more than a mercy killing.
|
|
#
?
Mar 12, 2016 23:57
|
|
|
Unfortunately I think the zombiEU will stick around for quite a while, not realising it is really dead. Nevermind Brexit, the current refugee fuckup, where there is no single unified response but several sides claiming to abide by the established rules and plans while working on the exact opposite actions is doing the most harm. The EU is unable to effectively enforce EU policy, and "EU policy" can mean whatever the gently caress you want it to. And maybe this isn't anything new, but it's never been more important or high profile.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 00:27
|
|
|
If the EU bureaucrats got a dime for every time the Communities were proclaimed dead, they would have enough cash to feed all the refugees. This is not even close to being the greatest threat to the EU sustainability. If the Britons elect to get out, they will end up the same way as the Norwegians: Forced to follow EU policies due to existing ties, but with no say in formulating them. Congrats!
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 00:28
|
|
|
YF-23 posted:Unfortunately I think the zombiEU will stick around for quite a while, not realising it is really dead. Nevermind Brexit, the current refugee fuckup, where there is no single unified response but several sides claiming to abide by the established rules and plans while working on the exact opposite actions is doing the most harm. The EU is unable to effectively enforce EU policy, and "EU policy" can mean whatever the gently caress you want it to. And maybe this isn't anything new, but it's never been more important or high profile. Why are you even so hostile towards the idea of the poeple and goods of europe moving around freely.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 00:29
|
|
|
I'm not sure where you got that from my post.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 00:32
|
|
|
YF-23 posted:I'm not sure where you got that from my post. Because you treat the EU as the Great Satan, when in truth its mission is to ensure free movement of goods, people and services.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 00:38
|
|
|
So that is our continent's "why do you hate freedom", huh.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 00:43
|
|
|
Every time a nation works around EU treaties or legislationthe institutions that make up the EU lose relevance. Empires don't fall overnight, they fade slowly into distant memory.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 00:44
|
|
|
Xoidanor posted:Every time a nation works around EU treaties or legislationthe institutions that make up the EU lose relevance. Empires don't fall overnight, they fade slowly into distant memory. The EU is the opposite of an empire since all members actively aspired towards membership and they all decided to maintain individual veto powers.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 00:45
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:The EU is the opposite of an empire since all members actively aspired towards membership and they all decided to maintain individual veto powers. Technically yes, but the intention was always that the EU would erode the nation states until it was too late to resist. The EU is a collaboration of international organizations that dwarfs even the UN in scope and ambitition. Everything from the Lisbon treaty, regional empowerment legislation, common currency, pan european identity policies, EU parliament, schengen to the open ended limitations of EU member state inclusion was tailored from the ground up to facilitate the building of a federalized European superstate that could see its borders expand forever through the spread of western liberal democracy. Before 2008 we were seeing institutions successfully peel power from both states, the European Council and the Council of Ministers. The EU was so close to reaching its vision until the Lehman Brothers crash snapped it from its fingers. What we're seeing now is the reversal of all that, every part of it is getting actively subverted for every day that passes. MiddleOne fucked around with this message at 01:06 on Mar 13, 2016 |
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 01:03
|
|
|
I think I prefer this thread's discussion on Britain leaving the EU to the bollocks in our national media.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 01:12
|
|
|
Xoidanor posted:Technically yes, but the intention was always that the EU would erode the nation states until it was too late to resist. There's a whole IR discipline dedicated to studying the EU, and most authors actually believe that the point of the EU has been to increase the power of nation states in Europe, not to empower any sort of supranational structure. Any sort of analysis that proclaims some sort of anti-populist leadership in the EU tends to be quite frankly fictional
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 01:16
|
|
|
There was a momentum towards greater integration and unification in the '90s and maybe the '00s which halted and which we're seeing reversed now. Reducing the EU to just "freedom of movement" is incredibly lovely and narrowminded, and if you think that that was the point all along, then if that were the case the project was doomed from the get-go to be a failure that could only last for as long as it could put up a façade that it was more than that. This goes without mentioning that freedom of movement for people is currently being challenged big-time by the member states themselves.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 01:27
|
|
|
YF-23 posted:There was a momentum towards greater integration and unification in the '90s and maybe the '00s which halted and which we're seeing reversed now. Reducing the EU to just "freedom of movement" is incredibly lovely and narrowminded, and if you think that that was the point all along, then if that were the case the project was doomed from the get-go to be a failure that could only last for as long as it could put up a façade that it was more than that. This goes without mentioning that freedom of movement for people is currently being challenged big-time by the member states themselves. You do realize that the Eu is the product of three pillars, the most important of which promoted common market of goods, services and persons, based on a 1980s policy agreement of all members: THe Single European Act. It's tempting to draw conspiracy theories about Europe, but the fact is that at every point the European integration program was accepted by every single nation included in it.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 01:34
|
|
|
Ah yes, that 1980s policy accurately reflects the current political situation. For more we turn to our Soviet Union correspondent, Vladmir B. Fictional.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 01:39
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:the fact is that at every point the European integration program was accepted by every single nation included in it.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 01:40
|
|
|
LemonDrizzle posted:Aside from all the times that it was voted down in referenda, renegotiated, or simply quietly ignored, you mean? For this lack of accepting revisionism you'll be sent to the gulags in the still-apparently-existing-Soviet-Union.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 01:43
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:You do realize that the Eu is the product of three pillars, the most important of which promoted common market of goods, services and persons, based on a 1980s policy agreement of all members: THe Single European Act. I really cannot understand the way in which you think that anything you are saying is mutually exclusive with anything I said.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 01:44
|
|
|
LemonDrizzle posted:Aside from all the times that it was voted down in referenda, renegotiated, or simply quietly ignored, you mean? You mean the single case of the constitutional treaty, which was compensated for by opt-outs and other extemptions designed specifically to aid ireland. Please do not try to critique the decision making process if you have no idea how it works.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 01:45
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:You mean the single case of the constitutional treaty, which was compensated for by opt-outs and other extemptions designed specifically to aid ireland.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 02:13
|
|
|
LemonDrizzle posted:No, I mean the various occasions on which "the European integration program" has been stalled, pushed into reverse, or simply sidelined and left to rot. That includes but is not limited to Ireland voting down Nice, the French and Dutch voting down the Constitutional treaty, Sweden quietly but permanently shitcanning its "obligation" to join the eurozone (and rejecting the euro in a referendum), and the UK demanding its opt-outs. It takes a special kind of delusion to believe "the integration program" has "been accepted by every single nation" when one of the largest of those nations is currently throwing a tantrum and demanding more exceptions. So you include cases of intergovernemtal bargaining under a clear unanimity rule as violations of the unanimity rule. Nice schisophrenia, dude.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 02:15
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:So you include cases of intergovernemtal bargaining under a clear unanimity rule as violations of the unanimity rule. Nice schisophrenia, dude.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 02:39
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:Nice schisophrenia, dude. Ah, the coveted 'misuse of word' and 'misspelling of word' dual.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 03:02
|
|
|
Tesseraction posted:I think I prefer this thread's discussion on Britain leaving the EU to the bollocks in our national media. That's because our media is cancer.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 08:04
|
|
|
The problem with the EU is that it's on the precipice of becoming an actual union state in contrast to a union of states and because of the lack of a European identity, there is exactly zero chance that it's going to work, but because of inertia, especially through the Euro, the European institutions are not able to stop their march towards an ever closer union and therefore action by them is met by an equal and opposite reaction in the member states. But this doesn't mean the EU is bound to become a zombie, it just means that it won't be an union state anytime soon, which is probably not the worst outcome.
|
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 08:32
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:im afraid that if the brexit goes through i wont be able to buy cheap cheddar and proper bacon any more
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 08:49
|
|
|
Extreme0 posted:That's because our media is cancer. All media is.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 08:55
|
|
|
A Buttery Pastry posted:British Bacon comes primarily from the Netherlands and Denmark, so the only thing holding you back is your fellow countrymen not being big enough fans of it. For the Americans in the thread...define bacon? I know there may well be a difference between its use here and there...But I forget where the difference is.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 14:25
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 26, 2024 20:05 |
|
|
steinrokkan posted:im afraid that if the brexit goes through i wont be able to buy cheap cheddar and proper bacon any more Good. Then you might finally try some real cheese, instead of that liquefied and fermented socks smell.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2016 14:30
|
|
