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GaussianCopula posted:The Eastern European thread is that way http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3765883 There might not be a viable alternative for the current ruling class, but the deal that is on the table has literally no upside for the EU. You couldn't get a faster rise of anti EU parties even if you were to use cattleprods to drive voters into their arms. It will not even achieve a net reduction of the immigrant flows. It will never be operationally executed and probably be outright vetoed (resettlement of refugees within Schengen, what a joke), and the very idea we should extend visa free travel and work towards a speedy EU membership for the religious autocrats (EU and humanistic values - what a joke, even Russia has more freedom of press by now) in Istanbul, a regime actively supporting ISIS, a country with practically open borders with a region that will most likely stay a sectarian warzone for another millenium, will lead to full collapse of the current politcal establishment within a decade. Let's hope at least Hungary and the rest of Eastern Europe keep on vetoeing this dumb poo poo long enough for the next election cycles in northern Europe so we can try to save the EU.
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Mar 7, 2016 22:37
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steinrokkan posted:You do realize Turkey already is a member of the Customs Union (which itself is a product of many underlying harmonization efforts between the EU and Turkey) - giving them visa free travel is in the large picture just an affirmation of the trend, not a radical departure. If anything the continued sabotaging of talks with the EU in the past by Greece and Cyprus was a major factor in Erdogan's rise to power. Anything that can be done to improve EU - Turkey relations will mean both a normalization of domestic Turkish politics, and a boost to economic development. The trend has been completely stagnant, with Turkey joining having been practically off the table for the past decade. I have no idea why you think that visa free travel, 6 billion euro a year and a revitalisation of the membership talks would be seen as anything other then a victory for Erdogan domestically and as a big gently caress you for the opposition and all the journalists in lock up, and there is zero chance and indication that this would lead to a 'normalization' of domestic Turkish politics. That ship has long sailed.
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Mar 7, 2016 23:02
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steinrokkan posted:If Erdogan starts playing EU accession as a domestic card, that is a good thing, since it introduces a level of exogenous control over his government that may, in the long term, spill over beyond his control. Since when? Have you been paying attention to the state of the EU? What kind of exogenous control are you envisioning? You really think Erdogan will use the membership card as anything but a tool for further domestic control and his aim for an executive presidency (dictatorship)? The only thing I see is an implosion of the EU project.
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Mar 7, 2016 23:11
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steinrokkan posted:It's now his time to bypass Greece while they are down. The terms of the acquis are non-negotiable and the accession progress at the current stage is largely divorced from the current EU problems, so either he can choose to enact reforms that will allow him to open / close new chapters at a relatively rapid pace, or fail and take a domestic hit (since the EU bid remains somewhat popular, albeit in a diminished magnitude). The terms of the acquis are non-negotiable, you are kidding right? The only thing Erdogan will be doing is playing the different sides of a hopelesly divided EU for the next decade, ensuring the continued support and votes of all the Turks living in the EU. He does not need or want EU membership and neither do his voters. Anyways, even on principle we should not even be entertaining the notion of a country joining that has a regime that actively prosecutes anybody opposing them, locks up critics and nationalises the press. We might as well be discussing Russian membership.
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Mar 7, 2016 23:24
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GaussianCopula posted:You all realize that the number of Syrians that try to reach Greece via boats will drop sharply once this deal is implemented and therefore the number of Syrians that need to be resettled from Turkey to the EU will be relatively low? At the beginning you might have two weeks or a month tops, in which refugees are still trying to brave the Aegean to reach Greek costs, but after that they will soon realize that such an endeavor is folly, because spending >1000€ for a round trip to Kos or Lesbos might be an interesting proposal for European tourists, but I doubt very many Syrians would fancy it, especially since there is the real risk that they drown. You do realise that this gives Turkey a direct incentive and a future easy trigger to push as many refugees to Europe by boat every time they feel they want something from the EU? It's an open invitation for future blackmail and strengthens the position of a regime that has shown to be in direct opposition of EU values, a regime that willfully supports ISIS (since they are good at killing Kurds). And you seem to have a lot of faith in the administrative quality and honesty of all parties involved. I mean really, you really expect all the refugees to stay in their camps after a month because there is an EU-Turkish deal? As soon as the planes stop landing the boats will start up again. Lagotto fucked around with this message at 08:45 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 08:41
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GaussianCopula posted:It most certainly does not. It would introduce a mechanism that allows any refugee to be returned to Turkey from Greece and which is not time limited. Sure, you can argue that Turkey could just end the program at any time, but such an attempt at blackmail would be very obvious and the EU would have enough instruments to punish Turkey and Erdogan for it, e.g. by taking away visa free travel again, which would hurt Erdogan much more than it would hurt the EU. Turkey is just seeing how far they can push the EU and how much they can get out of it in the process. Once the EU extends free visa travel, it will not be just as easily taken away again, why would you think that? That is not how the EU functions, otherwise we would have taken action against Rumania and Bukgaria ages ago for not following through on their monitoring programs. Add to this the poltical pressure from the millions of Turks already in EU and you can forget about taking away visa free travel. The biggest challenge will be the relocation since we havent even started yet with the first 100.000. This is a completely empty compromise, fueled by Merkel not being able to stomach the bad press from refugees being stuck in Greece. It's pr, nothing else, nobody gives a gently caress when refugees are stuck halfway Africa or if it are just millions of kids stuck on a dumpster in India or Brazil. quote:Oh and w.r.t supporting ISIS etc. are you favoring a complete isolation of the EU? Because I can't think of to many countries that are not doing some lovely stuff outside of the EU, maybe Canada and New Zealand but other than that? We are still reliant on Russian gas, Saudi oil and Chinese manufacturing. No of course not, how does that follow? Are we inviting all these countries to join the union? quote:Well, I doubt it as long as those refugees know that they will just go on a round trip to Kos our Lesbos. They might try to find a different route, but that too is a problem we can deal with when it arises. You are being terribly naive, there is no reason for refugees or immigrants to stay in Turkey. Some guy from Bangladesh has really nothing to lose by getting on a boat to Greece at the off chance they actually get properly registered both in Greece and Turkey. Edit. Freudian typo Lagotto fucked around with this message at 09:25 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 09:08
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waitwhatno posted:Most of Europe has visa-free travel with the US. Such an arrangement doesn't necessarily has to be a security risk. No we dont, most of Europe needs an electronic visa, same as with Turkey. That is not the same as visa free at all, visa free of course implies a security risk.
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Mar 8, 2016 12:15
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GaussianCopula posted:Maybe you can spot the country on that list that has a direct border with Syria. Somehow I put a bit more trust in Israel being able to control its Syrian border.
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Mar 8, 2016 12:18
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waitwhatno posted:It's kinda amazing how you manage to be so consistently wrong with everything you say. Does that ever make you wonder that maybe you don't really "have it 8 figured out", when people keep correcting you all the time with objective reality? Like I said, you need an electronic one. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_System_for_Travel_Authorization quote:The Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) is a United States government requirement (mandated by theImplementing Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007) for participating travelers from Visa Waiver Program (VWP) countries. ESTA is an automated system that determines the eligibility of visitors to travel to the U.S. under the Visa Waiver Program (VWP). Authorization via ESTA does not determine whether a traveler is admissible to the United States. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers determine admissibility upon travelers’ arrival. The ESTA application collects biographic information and answers to VWP eligibility questions. ESTA applications may be submitted at any time prior to travel, though it is recommended that travelers apply as soon as they begin preparing travel plans or prior to purchasing airline tickets. What else have I been wrong about? You might not like my assessments or predictions but please make a case as to why I am wrong if you want to engage. Lagotto fucked around with this message at 12:59 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 12:54
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steinrokkan posted:That's not a visa. What's the material difference? It is literally the same system Turkey has in place with the EU. See also E-VISA.
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Mar 8, 2016 13:01
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steinrokkan posted:You can visit Turkey on special e-Visa, but you can't go from Turkey into Schengen without proper visa. Turkey is an Annex I country, with no special privileges. Your point being? That there is indeed a visa requirement for Schengen citizens for visiting the United States and Turkey? Cause then we can end the derail. The US would never allow visa free entry post 9-11 because of the security risks, implying that visa free entry does not increase the security risks is dumb.
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Mar 8, 2016 13:30
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steinrokkan posted:Are you dense? Your claim was that "No we dont, most of Europe needs an electronic visa, same as with Turkey. That is not the same as visa free at all, visa free of course implies a security risk." The point is that Turkey has waived their visa requirement for EU states, so even if they call it "e-Visa" it's not visa (if you need to qualify something by adding a prefix it signifies a major difference from the original concept). Maybe scroll back a few posts to what the discussion is about before you butt in. waitwhatno posted:Most of Europe has visa-free travel with the US. Such an arrangement doesn't necessarily has to be a security risk. Lagotto posted:No we dont, most of Europe needs an electronic visa, same as with Turkey. That is not the same as visa free at all, visa free of course implies a security risk. The point is that the only difference between a paper visa and an e-visa is the automation. Entry into the US and Turkey is not visa free at all.
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Mar 8, 2016 14:10
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waitwhatno posted:ESTA is a formal check to confirm that you qualify for the visa waiver program. It is fully automatic and no decision is made whether you are allowed to enter the US or not. If you are not eligible for VWP, ESTA informs you beforehand, so that you can apply for a visa. I know that is what Turkey wants, but the point is that this implies a security risk, so that is not something that in my opinion we should want. Your claim is that that is not necessarily true since Schengen has free visa travel to the States. I am sorry but that is not the case, as you can tell from your own post. And that is not even mentioning the ungodly amount of citizen data Schengen is pooring into the US databases and the extensive NSA databases the e-applications are crossed referenced with.
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Mar 8, 2016 14:49
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http://balkanist.net/turkeys-mysterious-disappearing-refugees/quote:Official refugee estimates by the United Nations and the Turkish government are calculated by registration instead of tracking, thereby including hundreds of thousands who have found refuge in Europe or returned home. By John Butler and S. Keleşoğlu. Would be really funny if this turns out to be true.
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Mar 9, 2016 21:54
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gently caress thats my metrostop. Hope my colleaugues are all fine.
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Mar 22, 2016 09:38
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A happy EU day to our friends in Athens and to all of my fellow Europeans.
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May 9, 2016 10:56
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Tesseraction posted:This morning isn't quite as bright as yesterday's in Athens! Eurovision starts tomorrow, so no protests tomorrow ☺
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May 9, 2016 12:00
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I'd have to check what the status is on the report for Germany, but I am quite sure France and Italy are being threatened with fines as well. I don't see any evidence that Spain or Portugal are being singled out. That doesn't mean we shouldn't just get rid of the EMU of course.
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May 18, 2016 14:14
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Tesseraction posted:I... don't understand what this is meant to be a nice try about? Are you trying to claim I'm anti-Semitic? Interesting..... why would you think anybody is trying to claim you are anti-Semetic?
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May 26, 2016 04:56
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Libluini posted:It's interesting. In comparison, the USA have already seen multiple political parties die and disappear over the course of their multiple century long history. It looks like know it's time for our German democracy to see the death of their first parties. I'm guessing history is not really your thing?
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May 31, 2016 23:11
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Libluini posted:Quite the opposite, actually Maybe American history then? The European political landscape has always been incredibly fragmented compared to the US one. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_historical_political_parties_in_Germany
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May 31, 2016 23:21
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Libluini posted:I was talking about the modern German state, which only started existing in 1949. Additionally, that list includes totally irrelevant small groups I've never heard off. Certainly no major German party of the republic has died so far. Now you are just moving goal posts, are comparing two completely different periods and still manage to be wrong. It is no big deal, but I really don't see how you can look at US history and German history and then make that post.
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Jun 1, 2016 05:31
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waitwhatno posted:When people talk about German democracy, they usually mean the FRG. The Weimar Republic was such a short lived clusterfuck and failure that it's hardly worth the term democracy. The crumbling of the established European center is quite evident, and is certainly an interesting development even though it has already been two decades in the making. That does not make the faulty comparison with two centuries of US any less ridiculous though. I still have no clear idea what was intended with the comparison except as some kind of weird reference to this being part of democracies coming of age or something. If that was indeed his point, then I am sorry, that is not what is happening and one could easily argue that the entire period starting at the second half of the 19th century is Europe developing as democracies. What is happening now, both in the US and Europe has no parallel with US history and is in fact a fair bit more troubling then the romanticised notions Libluini posts seems to imply. But maybe I am reading too much into it.
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Jun 1, 2016 12:40
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Brainiac Five posted:The whole "kinship" thing is built on a relatively cunning deception. That is, what would happen to other ethnicities in the pure radical centrist states? The belief that Asian Brits are fully accepted as ethnically "British" is a soap-bubble popped by glancing at the front page of any given tabloid. So, are they to be genocided? Ethnically cleansed? Or, rather, made into a terrorized underclass that can be used by the right to devastate any attempts at preserving or expanding even center-left policies? Because even if the left stains their hands with the commission of such evils, there's always the multiethnic nature of most of Europe, and then regional differences, and sex and sexuality and more and more. The ability to set people against one another is capable of working on even arbitrary differences. And the left, fully devoured by the right and a new left unwilling and unable to use the tainted language and knowledge of the old, will scarcely be able to resist. The end result is a hellish dystopia lasting for God knows how many years. Jezus Christ, what kind of loving drivel is this? The UNA bomber transcripts make more sense. No wonder the left is the foomed dead end sewer bend of modern politics. Lagotto fucked around with this message at 18:17 on Jun 5, 2016 |
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Jun 5, 2016 18:15
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LemonDrizzle posted:
I think you will find that muslims are over represented by a factor 4-5 in most negative statistics (unemployment, crime etc.). Public perception of the muslim population is simply automatically correcting for this over representation. So kuddos for Western Europe, truly the vanguard for politically correct double think!
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Jun 15, 2016 12:39
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Libluini posted:My favorite fuckery is Thatcher's old EU-discount: Did you know thanks to Thatcher the UK has to contribute less then other nations? Since 1984 the UK can look at what they're paying to the EU, compare it to the agricultural subsidies they're getting and can get up to 2/3rds of the difference back. It's now 2016 and this discount is still there, just slightly less brazenly high! After Germany, the UK is the biggest net contributer to the EU budget. The above is dumb propaganda.
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Jun 16, 2016 13:07
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awesome-express posted:afaik net contributions yes, before any rebates or concessions are applied. It's like filing expenses, you pay X, but then get Y% back. Sorry but I can't find data supporting this. Regardless, most of the EU is a net receiver of EU funds, the UK is a net payer. The UK leaving will directly cause a new budget gap.
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Jun 16, 2016 13:20
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Libluini posted:Then read my loving links, you dumb gently caress. What are you on about weirdo? Pluskut Tukker posted:I do think there's something to be said for the rebate since the EU's funding rules and spending arrangements would otherwise disadvantage the UK too much, but the rebate is in fact a deviation from the rules that's entirely fair to describe as 'fuckery'. I don't think it can make sense and ve fuckery at the same time. They are still paying more per capita then Austria for instance. (I thought so anyway but let me check your link) But my main point is that Libluini 's post is terribly unnuanced click bait hysterics.
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Jun 16, 2016 13:34
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Arglebargle III posted:Sorry don't have time to read 60 pages but I wanted to ask a question: In 2008 Spain won the EC with a team that brutally raped and pillaged decades of Dutch football tradition, subverting it into the bore fest they call tiki taka. This style was only playable because they, and every Spanish athlete since, were completely spaced out on blood doping. Europe as a whole has never really recovered.
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Jun 18, 2016 08:48
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Charlie Mopps posted:Looking at political parties, the only parties where a majority of voters want to leave are Geert Wilders' PVV, the socialists and a small party called 50+ which only cares about the, well, people of 50+ years old. Every other party and its voters want to stay. Official position of the socialists is also that we should stay in the EU, but it should be reduced to be mainly about trade and some issues like immigration and defense, basically the issues that cant be solved on a national level. A majority wants a referendum with polls showing more people voting leave then stay. Situation is actually very similar. http://www.nltimes.nl/2016/06/21/majority-dutch-also-want-referendum-eu-membership/ 'Every other party and it's voters wants to stay' is nonsense, they are all divided on the issue.
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Jun 25, 2016 12:53
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GaussianCopula posted:That poll sounds fishy, as 27k participants sounds very, very high for a scientific poll. It's the same poll Charlie is basing his post on. Anyway, it is no big secret that there is huge EU resentment in the Netherlands (see also the Ukrain referendum which was essentially a vote on the EU) a vote on a Nexit would give the same 50/50 scenario as in the UK.
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Jun 25, 2016 13:07
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El Pollo Blanco posted:A dutch dude just told me he's never heard of the nltimes before, make of that what you will. Lets make nothing of it. I used that link because it is an english source. The poll is one regulary conducted on a lot of topics by a union of the Dutch broadcast organisations. I do not get why people think it is incredible to believe NL is very eurosceptic. Back in 2005 we already vetoed the European constitutional treaty by referenda together with France.
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Jun 25, 2016 13:11
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YF-23 posted:What do the Netherlands have to be mad about against the EU anyway. They resent being forced to give you money.
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Jun 25, 2016 13:13
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Charlie Mopps posted:Yes they are divided, but a majority wants to stay: This translates into 48% leave, 45% stay and the rest undecided for the overall vote.
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Jun 25, 2016 13:41
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waitwhatno posted:I'm absolutely flabbergasted by so much misunderstanding of economics, remarkable. Jobs are not some abstract thing that rolls off conveyor belts like a standardised product. No Georgian immigrant will, or is allowed to, because thankfully we have a decent minimum wage and a decent social welfare states, which both guarantee a better income. But I guess your argument is to do away with both and import endless labour supply in a continued race to the bottom? The EU eloctorates have already seen this happening, which is one of the major reasons for a call for a reinstatement of border sovereignity and an exit from the EU or at least a stop on the endless expension of the borders and the inclusiom of ever more countries.
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Jun 26, 2016 17:46
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waitwhatno posted:I can tell that you have never worked in a shitjob in your life and do not know anyone who has. Work time and minimum wage laws (de facto) do not apply to this kind of work. You know poo poo all dude, certainly not Dutch social and labour laws or my labour history. Now please gently caress off with your dumb one liners.
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Jun 26, 2016 18:30
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Friendly Humour posted:Heh. Well I'm sure that there's plenty of evidence provided by the Troika that it didn't happen. It is after all, a rather serious allegation which I'm sure they've thoroughly disproven. He gathered a wirking group, leant on all domestic and non-domestic banks who then gave up 30 years if financial data (I would hope all in the same neat format instead of half of it being in paper files and the rest being from 50 different antiquated IT systems) after which a simple algorithm compared it to the IRS data. All in the space of a few months. How dumb do you have to be to believe that bullshit? Or any of the other bullshit that narcisistic psycho has been spouting.
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Jul 1, 2016 19:46
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Friendly Humour posted:Well go on then, what's the unreasonable part? When you are stuck in the loon house all crazy seems normal. Good luck to you.
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Jul 1, 2016 19:50
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I am sure Deutsche Bank, BNP, Goldman's etc. jumped at the opportunity to hand over three decades of data over to Varoufakis. And the meticulous Greek book keepers at the Greek banks of course continually digitalized and upgraded there mid 80's & 90's floppy disk and paper data, because that's really what tiny shithole banks like to do with their time and money. (Not a single bank is doing this of course) The IT geniuses in Greece managed to put all these different data formats together in a space of a few months, while at the same time Varoufakis left a cd-rom hand delivered to his finance ministery with the accounts of Greek tax evaders with foreign banks in his drawer because he lacked the resources to pursue it. And none of this leaked out in the press, not like the IT and Finance departements of 40+ banks would have to have been involved. This poo poo is too dumb for words.
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Jul 1, 2016 20:37
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Friendly Humour posted:I'm glad you're feeling well enough to jump back into the debate! No worries just waiting for the commercials to finish.
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Jul 1, 2016 20:40
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