CrazyLoon posted:Ground zero. Such a change would require treaty change so it's not more than a thought experiment by the EC at the moment. Moreover it would introduce a huge moral hazard, where the frontier countries no longer need to secure their borders, or to be more precise, no longer have an economic incentive to do so, which would increase the influx of immigrants into the EU. I guess if at some future point the EU has an EU border guard, which has full authority to operate in the whole EU without getting hosed over by countries claiming their national sovereignty is violated or by the EC who change the rules on the fly to suit their political agenda of the day, then such a system could work. But in that alternate reality pigs are flying anyway. As for the summit, here is what they will agree on today https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/706752098050940928 Congratz to Austria-Hungary, they have won in Europe for the first time in over a century. Habsburg supremacy on the rise again? PS: Exactly what I predicted after Merkels interview last week happened, Berlin is now officially endorsing the closure of the Macedonian/Greek border. GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 09:23 on Mar 7, 2016 |
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Mar 7, 2016 09:17
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YF-23 posted:There is a summit in Smyrna/Izmir today that these proposals are related to. We'll see what comes out of it. Please stop using your Revanchist names for all your neighbors, maybe not being hostile to them would improve your own situation, just a hint. But what kind of summit is that? Rappaport posted:So what are the chances of the "collective responsibility" actually meaning anything? Will Berlin push for "sharing the burden" or will it suffice to just throw more money at Greece? They are implementing the resettlement plan for 160k at the moment, with Portugal and France having taken a few refugees tonight. Other than that there might be some resettlement directly from Turkey if Turkey plays ball and the number of refugees that arrive in Greece drop drastically. If that does not happen, we will see. GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 09:28 on Mar 7, 2016 |
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Mar 7, 2016 09:26
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YF-23 posted:IIRC it's the EU-Turkey summit on immigration that was postponed after a terrorist strike in Turkey a couple weeks back. Nope, that's in Brussels too. Rappaport posted:I don't speak German so sorry if these questions are dumb; there was noise some time ago that Merkel is facing heavy criticism for her "open arms" rhetoric, has something changed in the German political landscape that'd drive the push for distributing refugees into the EU? Finland is currently having a poo poo-show with our internal politics and no one is discussing the refugee crisis, but it doesn't seem like the issue has become any less controversial. Well the far-right populists of the "Alternative für Deutschland", who a lot of people believed to be dead early last summer, when they decided to switch from being an anti Euro bailout party to being outright racists, rose like Phoenix from the ashes and just yesterday was the 3rd biggest party in the municipal elections in Hesse with around 13%. There are 3 important state elections next week, and it looks like they might even beat the SPD in one or two of those states. Will that drive a push to distribute refugees across the EU? I don't think so, because the current alternative is keeping them in Greece. There is no way that the refugees that are already in Germany are going to get distributed and no one is even entertaining that idea, so I'm not sure how a distribution plan would help the situation in Germany. GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 09:47 on Mar 7, 2016 |
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Mar 7, 2016 09:41
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waitwhatno posted:All parties except for the AfD and the National Socialists are behind Merkel right now. Refugees from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq have a very high chance to receive asylum and if they stay for three(?) years, they will get permanent residence. If they stay for three years they will get permanent asylum, which can be revoked as soon as the reason for their asylum is no longer given.
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Mar 7, 2016 11:04
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waitwhatno posted:We already had this discussion in the Germany thread, remember? quote:Nach den drei Jahren wird eine unbefristete Niederlassungserlaubnis erteilt, wenn das Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge der Ausländerbehörde mitgeteilt hat, dass die Asylberechtigung bzw. die Flüchtlingsfeststellung nicht zu widerrufen oder zurückzunehmen ist. Ein Widerruf oder eine Rücknahme der positiven Entscheidung kann auch später noch erfolgen, wenn die Voraussetzungen hierfür vorliegen; die Entscheidung darüber liegt (sofern keine schwerwiegenden strafrechtlich relevanten Gründe vorliegen) im Ermessen des Bundesamtes. Highlighted the relevant part for you.
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Mar 7, 2016 11:24
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waitwhatno posted:Losing your refugee status does not mean that you automatically lose the niederlassungserlaubnis. This is the strongest type of residence permit that we have and it is given to people to put down permanent roots in the country. It can't just be revoked at will and without good reason. That would be extremely hosed up. It can be revoked if you are getting it solely based on your refugee status. quote:Einem Ausländer, der seit drei Jahren eine Aufenthaltserlaubnis nach § 23 Absatz 4 besitzt, ist eine Niederlassungserlaubnis zu erteilen, es sei denn, es liegen die Voraussetzungen für eine Rücknahme vor. https://dejure.org/gesetze/AufenthG/26.html
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Mar 7, 2016 13:15
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Riso posted:I don't know why the Brits should care about laws restricting guns when they banned private ownership under new labour. They don't want anyone to own weapons, therefore stricter weapons for the whole EU.
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Mar 7, 2016 14:37
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Breaking news update on the chips front: https://twitter.com/StefanLeifert/status/706843958710804481
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Mar 7, 2016 15:19
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In more important news, six ~17-45 year old men from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan have molested young girls in swimming bath in Cologne. http://www.faz.net/agenturmeldungen/dpa/maenner-sollen-kinder-in-schwimmbad-unsittlich-beruehrt-haben-14111055.html
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Mar 7, 2016 16:51
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CommieGIR posted:"I'm going to flee oppression to Europe only to get myself kicked out doing illegal poo poo while making all other refugees look bad" They most likely won't get kicked out because you are not allowed to send people to their death.
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Mar 7, 2016 17:02
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I don't think Erdogan is dumb enough to want aid scrapped, there's basically no universe in which Turkey doesn't have a whole bunch of Syrian and Iraqi refugees for the foreseeable future and they definitely do need money to help with that. Erdogan wants to spend as much of that money as possible on his own population and cronies, that's why they are demanding that it can be used for "municipal infrastructure costs". At the moment the money is earmarked for projects that directly help Syrian refugees and I'm not even sure whether the Turkish administration has any direct access to the money at all or whether it is given directly to NGOs. https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/706877625088737280 Deal sounds pretty sweet for the EU. Expedited visa free travel indicates that Visegrade group put a lot of pressure on Turkey to get a fast deal, before Operation Hotspot Greece becomes to effective in deterring refugees. GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 18:05 on Mar 7, 2016 |
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Mar 7, 2016 17:57
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YF-23 posted:GC, since you've been paying attention to the newsstream on it, I heard some reports that mentions of a closure of the Balkan route have been refuted, did you catch anything on that? Well, Merkel and Juncker don't like the phrase, because it would be a victory for the Visegrad group and Merkels internal enemies, so they are resisting it. But it's only about the symbol of those words not what happens in reality because I really love the implications of the Syrian resettlement deal though. For every Syrian, who risked his life for nothing and who gets send back to Turkey, the EU will accept a hand picked Syrian to get a EU ticket, of which around 30% will be golden Germany tickets. Imagine you get selected for relocation and than get told "congratz, you get to live in Greece"
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Mar 7, 2016 18:29
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The Eastern European thread is that way http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3765883 With regards to Turkey, Sultan Erdogan and the deal the EU is trying to make, there is really no viable alternative, because the European public would not be able to endure the pictures from Greece as a failed state forever and at some point most of the refugees would have been resettled. There was a very interesting, anecdotal, dialogue this morning on ARD, where the moderator asked the field reporter in Greece why the pictures of refugees send from Greece have not yet caused a shift in policy, to which the field reporter answered, in a weird mixture of apology and justification, that in his opening the media is already doing their utmost to by sending multiple reports about the situation every day. An important question is how Turkey's power in the negotiation will shift overtime. It's very strong at the moment, but I would argue that this could shift rather rapidly once the brunt of the current migration movement is dealt with and the EU can adopt long-term solutions to the problem. Additionally closer ties between Turkey and the EU are very likely to undermine the AKP's position in the long run.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:47
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https://twitter.com/florianeder/status/706913439004942337 Renzi would make a great D&D poster, trying to scuttle every realpolitik deal.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:57
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namesake posted:Well if that happens it's death to syriza but it might at least inspire other leftwing exit forces as there's literally no way to even surrender successfully if you're in that sort of bind and have to listen to the EU. I simply don't get it. The easiest way to fix Greece is to find 150 competent and determined people, get them elected and simply push through the reforms the creditors want letter by letter (don't tell me any Greek government did that, they didn't). If that doesn't fix your country, it's not your fault and the creditors will have to offer you more help. But it seems that there is no Greek Gerhard Schröder, who put his country's needs before his own political survival but only corrupt politicians that want to secure jobs and funding for their friends and family. Oh and please don't tell me SYRIZA is different, the amount of blatant nepotism going on in their administration is just laughable, just as their justification, that no one else can be found.
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Mar 7, 2016 20:54
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Lawman 0 posted:What's going on with Spain ATM? Podemos did not want to support a government that did not implement all of their demands and therefore there will be new elections on june 26th (3 days after Brexit referendum)
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Mar 7, 2016 21:26
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Erdogan wants the visa free travel and opening of chapters purely to boost his internal support, as it will serve as a symbol that he can "get stuff" from the EU and moves ever closer to actually joining the EU and his people should not pay any attention to those terrorists that claim he is trying to become dictator and isolates Turkey internationally. It's probably important to mention that 95% of visa requests from Turks get approved by by the German consulate in Istanbul, so it's mostly removing a buerocratic hassle and not necessarily something that will cause a wave of immigration.
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Mar 7, 2016 23:23
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LemonDrizzle posted:Probably not - Remain has a consistent lead in the polls (see below), and a consistent large lead in phone polls, which are traditionally more accurate than online polls. On top of that the two Leave campaigns are spending most of their time fighting with each other and whining about the way the government is running the Remain campaign rather than putting their case. Excuse me, but why the gently caress are your pollsters publishing ONLINE POLLS? I mean in my recent endeavours in the UKMT I learned that pretty much your whole political system is run by people who have a very strange concept of reality, but ONLINE POLLS? No wonder all your pollsters go the general election results wrong. But to get back to the topic of Brexit, no one knows. It's close enough that one event can change it in either way (e.g. terrorist attack, utter failure in Brussels to accomplish something, some Eurocrat causing a massive shitstorm) which makes predicting it with any certainty impossible, but the default result is probably remain.
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Mar 8, 2016 00:28
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You all realize that the number of Syrians that try to reach Greece via boats will drop sharply once this deal is implemented and therefore the number of Syrians that need to be resettled from Turkey to the EU will be relatively low? At the beginning you might have two weeks or a month tops, in which refugees are still trying to brave the Aegean to reach Greek costs, but after that they will soon realize that such an endeavor is folly, because spending >1000€ for a round trip to Kos or Lesbos might be an interesting proposal for European tourists, but I doubt very many Syrians would fancy it, especially since there is the real risk that they drown. Furthermore it is important to understand that the Syrians that will get priority in the resettlement process are those, that already have family in the EU, which means there is a high probability that a good share of them would be able to secure their entry at a later point in time through family reunification processes anyway. And what is Turkey getting for taking care of the refugee problem? A bit more money (who cares? It's a rounding error in most national budgets), a few (according to reports it might be as few as two) negotiation chapters being reopened and the coveted visa-free travel, which means they face fewer bureaucratic hurdles when they want to travel to the EU, but does not give them any privileges as it relates to migrating to the EU (it's not free movement of labor). It all boils down to an agreement that Erdogan and Davutoglu can sell as proof that they are not distancing Turkey from the West/EU but continue to move Turkey closer to the EU, giving them ammunition against their critics at home. CrazyLoon posted:Well, IMO the best thing to do would be for the EU, with Germany in particular, to somehow make it clear to Turkey: "Are you loving kidding me?! Forget this, this is so bad that we'd rather give our aid money to Greece instead and give those saps one more chance and a shot at all this, bye!" and show a willingness to walk away. Turkey gets €6 billion in total or less than 2600€ per refugee they have in the country (2.3 million), while Greece already got €700 million, or €14000 per refugee that they are supposed to be able to shelter (50k). I'm all for loving over Greece, because they are a failed state that needs to be burned down to ashes so that it might have a chance to rise again, but it is insane to believe that this would be a viable long-term solution, because the EU would not be able to stomach those pictures forever.
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Mar 8, 2016 08:31
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Lagotto posted:You do realise that this gives Turkey a direct incentive and a future easy trigger to push as many refugees to Europe by boat every time they feel they want something from the EU? It's an open invitation for future blackmail and strengthens the position of a regime that has shown to be in direct opposition of EU values, a regime that willfully supports ISIS (since they are good at killing Kurds). And you seem to have a lot of faith in the administrative quality and honesty of all parties involved. It most certainly does not. It would introduce a mechanism that allows any refugee to be returned to Turkey from Greece and which is not time limited. Sure, you can argue that Turkey could just end the program at any time, but such an attempt at blackmail would be very obvious and the EU would have enough instruments to punish Turkey and Erdogan for it, e.g. by taking away visa free travel again, which would hurt Erdogan much more than it would hurt the EU. The biggest challenge to the deal will probably be the ECHR, which might not look to fondly on the idea of sending everyone back to Turkey, but let's deal with that issue when it becomes relevant. Oh and w.r.t supporting ISIS etc. are you favoring a complete isolation of the EU? Because I can't think of to many countries that are not doing some lovely stuff outside of the EU, maybe Canada and New Zealand but other than that? We are still reliant on Russian gas, Saudi oil and Chinese manufacturing. Lagotto posted:I mean really, you really expect all the refugees to stay in their camps after a month because there is an EU-Turkish deal? As soon as the planes stop landing the boats will start up again. Well, I doubt it as long as those refugees know that they will just go on a round trip to Kos our Lesbos. They might try to find a different route, but that too is a problem we can deal with when it arises. GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 08:55 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 08:51
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Interesting graph from the WSJ which shows that reforms can have pretty significant impact on unemployment. Just wanted to post it as a follow up to my post in the old thread a few days ago.
GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 10:40 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 10:01
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LemonDrizzle posted:Belgium's flemish nationalist party (who are also the largest party in the country's governing coalition) are not entirely happy with the proposed Turkish deal. Google translated because Flemish: http://m.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20160308_02170755 Good move on their part to get a bit press coverage, that's not easy as an MEP these days, but they probably should stop to misrepresent the deal. The reopening of chapters simply means that the process will be started again on those topics and and is purely symbolic. The idea that Turkey would join the in the foreseeable future is laughable and anyone even remotely interested in the situation should be aware of that. LemonDrizzle posted:I think this is a very optimistic reading of the situation. You (and Merkel) hope that this will stop people from attempting the crossing (or shifting their attempts to Italy and trying to claim asylum there), and you hope Turkey will uphold its end of the deal even though Erdogan's plainly not negotiating in good faith and basically ignored the terms of the last deal that was struck with him. It's also a bit amusing that a few billion euros here or there is a rounding error in this context but a matter of grave importance in others. Sure, if the relocation part of the deal doesn't work out it's worth nothing and we will have to see whether Turkey is going to try to put bureaucratic roadblocks in the way of it working as envisioned, but to me it seems like the incentives for both sides are pretty well aligned on this issue now. Unless the EU proofs utterly incompetent (granted, that is a very real possibility) Erdogan will not get his prize, visa free travel, unless it works out for both sides. In my view this "Turkish victory" that is going through the press might even be part of the backroom deal between Berlin and Ankara, because I still can't see the big concessions that the EU made that would justify this very one-sided coverage. As for the money, it's €2 billion per year. If we could spend €2billion to make the Greek debt crisis go away, Wolfi himself would carry the suitcases full of 500€ notes to Athens.
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Mar 8, 2016 11:54
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Cat Mattress posted:Effectively including Turkey in the Schengen area is the stupidest thing to come out of Europe in a long, long while. Sure we want the visa-free travel area to have a direct border with Syria, of course we do. After all, it's not like Daesh has claimed terror attacks in Europe, and threatened to do more. It's a political suicide. It's as insane as suggesting to build a direct bridge between Libya and Italy. Maybe you should read up on what visa-free travel actually means, because last I checked the following countries were not understood to be "effectively included in Schengen" quote:Albania Andorra Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Australia Bahamas Barbados Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Brunei Canada Chile Colombia Costa Rica Dominica El Salvador Grenada Guatemala Honduras Hong Kong Israel Japan Macau Macedonia Malaysia Mauritius Mexico Moldova Monaco Montenegro New Zealand Nicaragua Palau Panama Paraguay Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Samoa San Marino Serbia Seychelles Singapore South Korea Taiwan Timor-Leste Tonga Trinidad and Tobago United Arab Emirates United States Uruguay Vanuatu Vatican City Venezuela Maybe you can spot the country on that list that has a direct border with Syria. GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 12:13 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 12:07
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icantfindaname posted:Yeah if that deal doesn't involve net reduction of migrants coming in it's an absolute non-starter and simply proposing it is just Erdogan being a prick Currently only about 50% of people arriving in Greece are Syrians. hth Additionally you should look at the incentives of people to take the boat route, given that Merkel said that it's probable that those trying it will not have a chance to use the legal channel later.
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Mar 8, 2016 12:10
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Cat Mattress posted:Effectively including Turkey in the Schengen area is the stupidest thing to come out of Europe in a long, long while. Sure we want the visa-free travel area to have a direct border with Syria, of course we do. Cat Mattress posted:And? The whole point of Schengen isn't that it's visa-free, it's that it's passport-free. Are multiple people using your account?
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Mar 8, 2016 14:19
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In about 90 min Slovenia will be the first country to #goBacktoSchengen (the stated goal of the EC) by requiring anyone who wants to enter the country from a non-Schengen country (especially Serbia) to have either a valid Schengen-visa or to be a refugee who wants to apply for asylum in Slovenia. For some strange reason AFP chose to illustrate this news with barbed wire instead of some more friendly stock images https://twitter.com/AFP/status/707282237792907264
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Mar 8, 2016 22:29
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I'm just going to leave this here for you to ponder the implications https://twitter.com/yanisvaroufakis/status/707485360805253120 #nobel2016
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Mar 9, 2016 10:14
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Freezer posted:Haha, Merkel is truly the Frank Underwood of European politics. It would be hilarious if she knew that deal was never gonna be agreed to, but alienated everyone by pushing for it just to get an election boost. Merkel most certainly is no Frank Underwood or can you imagine her having sex with a 20 something year old reporter? (If you can, I'm sorry because that image will haunt you for the rest of your life)
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Mar 9, 2016 14:23
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waitwhatno posted:CSU(hillbilly party; the party that has been ruling the state of Bavaria for all of its history) demands for Turkey to be declared a secure state, before any visa-free travel agreement can take place. They don't want any Turkish/Kurdish tourist to come here and apply for asylum from the Erdogan regime. That's actually not true. If your are a legitimate refugee you can still claim asylum, even if your country of origin is defined as secure, only the burden of proof is reversed. They simply don't want the problem they had with people from the Balkans to repeat with Turks. Oh and the CSU is a very modern party that gets even defended by the only Green Ministerpräsident.
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Mar 9, 2016 16:17
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Mario is at it again, throwing money across Europe hoping some of it sticks and causes inflation.Dominionix posted:I'm sorry if this is the wrong place to ask but I really don't browse D&D that much and I can't find one anywhere: Is there a thread specifically dedicated to the "Brexit" (UK referendum on EU membership), or a thread which covers it in any reasonable amount of detail? The UKMT covers the topic in much more detail and variety (you get a lot of really crazy justifications for leaving) but the signal-to-noise ratio in that thread is really hard to bear at times.
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Mar 10, 2016 14:50
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LemonDrizzle posted:He apparently had a couple of panzerschrecks in reserve to back up his beeg bazooka. He should just accept that he can't emulate fiscal policy without limits and stop this madness.
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Mar 10, 2016 15:08
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LemonDrizzle posted:Perhaps if fiscal policy were more accommodating, he wouldn't need to take extraordinary measures to have any hope of reaching his treaty-mandated inflation target. The inflation target is not treaty mandated but a ECB governing council decision, the treaty just calls for the ECB to maintain price stability. LemonDrizzle posted:e: permitting the purchase of corporate bonds within a QE program is pretty bold, however. It was either that or deviating from the capital key, as there was simply not enough debt in certain countries to buy up and just imagine what would have happened if they did that? GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 15:40 on Mar 10, 2016 |
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Mar 10, 2016 15:34
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At this point the most important question is probably which bubble is Mario fueling and how can you profit from its burst.
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Mar 11, 2016 11:19
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Xoidanor posted:There are no winners in a currency war, just relentless retaliation until both sides realize that its futile. That's not even the objective. Draghi's primary objective is to keep state financing costs low by propping up their banks and to allow uncompetitive Euro countries to regain competitiveness without (too much) devaluation. The biggest bubble he is fueling therefore is government debt. But because Wolfi is a smart man that does not fall for the tricks of this feckless Italian, he simply lets the air out of the German government debt bubble on the other side by keeping his "Schwarze Null", which basically makes it an exercise in futility. Mario's wet dream is probably a Eurozone inflation of exactly 2% with Germany (and maybe the Netherlands) being the only outlier above it and everyone else keeping well below, thereby increasing their competitiveness without going through internal devaluation, but his chances of achieving that goal are about as good as those of me having a threesome with Scarlett Johansson and Jessica Alba tonight.
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Mar 11, 2016 11:36
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Pluskut Tukker posted:It's really rather amusing how, in the years prior to the euro crisis, the ECB held interest rates low to stimulate the German economy and thus fuelled the credit bubble in the GIIPS, and people are screaming bloody murder now that the situation is the reverse. It's almost as if the euro was a really bad idea. A) Doing the same thing and expecting different results is the definition of insanity. B) The situation is not reversed. The ECB is continuing to stimulate the German economy, or to be more precise, it's financing the refugee crisis/Wolfi's Schwarze Null. They just had to expand the types of debt they are allowed to buy under QE because there is too little German debt available. C) Southern Europe lacks the economic infrastructure that can be stimulated.
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Mar 11, 2016 16:32
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LemonDrizzle posted:Europe 2016: a newborn baby being washed over a puddle I really love that picture, because it can be used by anyone to accuse the group/person they disagree with Hate Merkel? "If she had not invited them, they would not be stuck in Greece now!" Hate Orban/Faymann? "Open your borders, how can you see this picture and not act!" Hate Greece? "Why is Greece doing nothing to help these people?" Hate refugees that stay at the border? "Why are they doing this to their child, they should go to one of the regular refugee camps in Greece!" But really, why is it worse that a child has to be washed in under these circumstances in Europe than in Africa or Asia? Where does the believe that European soil has some magic property that prevents human suffering come from, given the history of this continent? I mean, really, we are responsible for this man:  
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Mar 12, 2016 22:13
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The problem with the EU is that it's on the precipice of becoming an actual union state in contrast to a union of states and because of the lack of a European identity, there is exactly zero chance that it's going to work, but because of inertia, especially through the Euro, the European institutions are not able to stop their march towards an ever closer union and therefore action by them is met by an equal and opposite reaction in the member states. But this doesn't mean the EU is bound to become a zombie, it just means that it won't be an union state anytime soon, which is probably not the worst outcome.
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Mar 13, 2016 08:32
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PSA: The polls for Germany's Super Sunday election will close in 10min. Please discuss the results in the Germany thread, to keep it in one place http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3439500&pagenumber=183#lastpost
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Mar 13, 2016 17:49
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LemonDrizzle posted:What, like we discussed the French elections in the French thread and the Greek elections in the Greek thread? There is neither a French nor a Greek thread.
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Mar 13, 2016 18:02
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Cat Mattress posted:Man, losing a "traditional stronghold" is bad enough, but to Greens? That's just adding insult to injury. Well, the BaWü Green leader defended Horst Seehofer last week and there second most prominent member, the mayor of Tübingen, called for the German border to be closed, if necessary with force.
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Mar 13, 2016 19:06
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