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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCfXDChqu9w WHERE CAN I WATCH THIS? These streaming sites often show the cable networks, which will be covering it. http://www.stream2watch.co/live-tv/us/ http://www.hulkusc.com/ Note: Fox had the most coverage last time. RESULTS http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/ Some sources might not have results immediately. Feel free to suggest others. IRC https://client00.chat.mibbit.com/?server=EU.synirc.net%3A%2B7001&channel=%23Poligoon REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES
SCHEDULE 7 AM ET on March 8, the Michigan primary begins 8 AM ET (7 CST), the Mississippi primary begins 10 AM ET (8 MST), the Idaho primary begins 8 PM ET, polls close in Michigan and Mississippi 10 PM ET (8 MST), polls close in Idaho 10 PM ET (6 HST), the Hawaii caucuses begin 12 AM ET on March 9(8 HST), polls close in Hawaii DELEGATES AT STAKE Hawaii: 19 proportional statewide and per district. No viability threshold Idaho: 32 statewide only, proportional with 50% winner-take-all trigger. 20% threshold Michigan: 59 statewide only, proportional with 50% winner-take-all trigger. 15% threshold Mississippi: 40 proportional statewide and per district, but each district has its own 50% winner-take-all trigger. 15% threshold 
Jewel Repetition has issued a correction as of 08:11 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 07:55
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, Senator from Texas
, Governor of Ohio
, Senator from Florida
, Constitutionally Eligible
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Could a mod change the time to 8pm ET in the thread title? I hosed up with time zones.
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Mar 8, 2016 08:04
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gently caress yeah primaries. gently caress yeah. thanks for thread i've seen news of one poll from idaho. the news was via donald trump's twitter feed, which indicates that it was the most favorable news he could procure, but it still indicated, what an 11% lead with 30% undecided? not the most optimistic his twitter feed's ever been. he still probably wins the state if kasich[mentum] takes michigan [put your seat belts on] it would be a shock, basically either that one ARG poll being true or a rapid strategic movement of rubio voters. unlikely, i think. trump wins here i think looking at the louisiana map the counties basically get more pro-trump the further east you go http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/louisiana so continuing that trend you'd expect trump to beat cruz' rear end on hawaii, mainlander media seems to sorta expect rubio to win, because it's a tiny group of voters who are both attuned to the establishment consensus and are likely to be less white nationalist. if rubio doesn't win hawaii he probably takes a massive hit in the narrative i think trump wins 3 and rubio wins 1, and the horse named Narrative continues its march toward cleveland and the trumperdammerung untrumptomistically i could see cruz winning idaho if rubio voters coalesce behind him. in fact i've been thinking that idaho will offer good data re: whether rubio voters are abandoning ship and if enough of them are searching for a non-trump to make a difference. i'm guessing more idaho rubio voters would be willing to switch to cruz than in michigan where they have kasich, so idaho results could have direct relevance to the question of how desperate the rubio voter rats are to flee the sinking ship. i still think trump wins, but it'd be interesting if i were wrong But I Don't Know poo poo oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 08:18 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 08:04
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Each candidate gets a state imo on the Republican side. Trumps been slipping since the kkk thing.
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Mar 8, 2016 08:11
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Fixed, thanks.
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Mar 8, 2016 08:11
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Jewel Repetition posted:DELEGATES AT STAKE It seems like Idaho gets way more delegates / population than the other states? Mississippi is almost twice as big and only has 8 more. I am probably missing something obvious
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Mar 8, 2016 08:18
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RedQueen posted:It seems like Idaho gets way more delegates / population than the other states? Mississippi is almost twice as big and only has 8 more. I am probably missing something obvious No, you're right, Idaho has a delegate for every 51k people and Miss. only has them per 74k people. Joementum could probably tell you why this is, if there even is a reason.
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Mar 8, 2016 08:23
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Prof. Lurker posted:Each candidate gets a state imo on the Republican side. Kasich?
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Mar 8, 2016 08:57
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Jewel Repetition posted:No, you're right, Idaho has a delegate for every 51k people and Miss. only has them per 74k people. Joementum could probably tell you why this is, if there even is a reason. It's because of the GOP's apportionment process, which gives an effective bonus to small states. Each state gets 10 at-large delegates, just for existing. It then also gets 3 delegates for each Congressional district. In the same way that small states are given effective bonuses to their federal representation by guaranteeing them one congressional seat, they also receive an effective delegate bonus. Wyoming (pop: 584k) receives only 3 delegates fewer than Idaho (pop: 1.6 million) despite being just nearly 1/3 of the population. Note: Every state is also given "bonus delegates" based on how Republican they are. ID and MS are of similar Republican-ness, so they both get a similar number of bonus delegates (13 and 15, respectively).
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Mar 8, 2016 11:04
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Zombies' Downfall posted:Kasich? Idaho? Cruz seems too spiteful to really capture the Mormon vote, and Rubio's recent behavior is probably not endearing.
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Mar 8, 2016 11:12
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No way does Kasich get Idaho. The (very sparse) polling favors Trump, while betting markets lean heavily Cruz (about 67/33% Cruz/Trump right now) - I assume because the demographics are similar to the midwestern states Cruz has had surprise big victories in.
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Mar 8, 2016 15:03
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looks like once again potato is set to sweep both Idaho primaries
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Mar 8, 2016 15:15
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if Idaho goes Cruz, Michigan goes Kasich and Hawaii goes Rubio that is the best possible outcome. Chaos reigns. More likely is the boring "three narrow Trump victories" scenario. Boo! Contested convention!
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Mar 8, 2016 15:52
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No thread for the Democratic party primaries in Michigan and Mississippi?
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Mar 8, 2016 16:01
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Trump can lose every single race today and I wouldn't be that surprised. I would say that both Mississippi and Michigan are likely wins, with Idaho being possible if he's having a very good night. The polls usually estimate Trump's support very quite correctly, but we've definitely seen either a coalescing affect or strategic voting in states.
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Mar 8, 2016 16:11
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ayn rand hand job posted:No thread for the Democratic party primaries in Michigan and Mississippi? just talk about the undercard itt imo
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Mar 8, 2016 16:19
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Concerned Citizen posted:It's because of the GOP's apportionment process, which gives an effective bonus to small states. Do the Democrats not do the bonus delegates for states that actually vote Democrat, and if not why not?
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Mar 8, 2016 16:20
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Mar 8, 2016 16:25
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Prof. Lurker posted:Each candidate gets a state imo on the Republican side. Trumps been slipping since the kkk thing. Since the media lied and slandered him? gently caress them.
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Mar 8, 2016 16:50
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Concerned Citizen posted:Note: Every state is also given "bonus delegates" based on how Republican they are. This is why Vermont got 16 delegates while Alaska got 28, despite having very similar population sizes. There are some other states that have significant distortion like that as well. Texas has 155 to California's 172 despite California having nearly double the population of Texas. EDIT: for predictions. I have: Hawaii: Who the gently caress knows. It's a caucus in a state with basically no Republicans. Turnout will be tiny and the outcome could be anything. Idaho: I have it lean Cruz, but I also think only Trump and Cruz break the 20% viability cap. An 18-14 or so Cruz-Trump delegate split. Mississippi: Trump wins by a respectable margin, maybe 42-37 over Cruz. Rubio gets a couple of delegates (low single digits) due to Mississippi's generous rules. Michigan: Trump wins, maybe a bit underwhelmingly. I think that if Michigan were next week, Kasichmentum might pull this off, but there's just not enough time for the swing to fully take effect. I see something like Trump 37, Kasich 32, Cruz 22, Rubio 9 Patter Song has issued a correction as of 17:01 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 16:58
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Prof. Lurker posted:Each candidate gets a state imo on the Republican side. Trumps been slipping since the kkk thing. The KKK thing shouldn't weaken him all that much in a republican primary. I'd say the comments about being flexible on policy, and his constant waffling back and forth on issues is playing into the fears that some had about him being a secret liberal, who wants to build a wall, and is just saying whatever it takes to get the nomination. Trump's support is rock solid among those who don't really care about conservative principles, but those who do seem to be gravitating towards Cruz.
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Mar 8, 2016 17:00
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Not a Step posted:Do the Democrats not do the bonus delegates for states that actually vote Democrat, and if not why not? They do. Each state's base delegate weight is an average of (% of EVs that state has) + (% of the votes cast for the last three Dems in that state).
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Mar 8, 2016 17:06
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Not a Step posted:Do the Democrats not do the bonus delegates for states that actually vote Democrat, and if not why not? They do. A state gets delegates based off of electors in the GE, plus an allotment based off of the % of votes the state gave to the Democratic candidate in the prior 3 elections.
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Mar 8, 2016 17:11
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Prof. Lurker posted:Each candidate gets a state imo on the Republican side. Trumps been slipping since the kkk thing. You ok? You sound increasingly nervous.
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Mar 8, 2016 17:13
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Hopefully Rubio gets Hawaii, Kasich gets Michigan, Trumop gets Mississippi, Cruz gets Idaho, and chaos reigns for a thousand years.
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Mar 8, 2016 17:20
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kasich  https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/707238360142708736
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Mar 8, 2016 17:21
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Trump wins Michigan, Hawaii, Mississippi Cruz wins Idaho Rubio drops out after a 4-3-3-3 finish.
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Mar 8, 2016 17:32
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Prediction: Trump wins Missisippi by double digits (12-15), Idaho by 8 and Michigan razor thin win by 2. Hawaii goes Rubio.
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Mar 8, 2016 17:33
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Prediction: I am mildly plugged into republican politics in Idaho and I would be really surprised if Trump won here. It's possible, but Rubio is well liked and Cruz seems more popular among the crazies.
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Mar 8, 2016 17:43
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Trump's gonna sweep.
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Mar 8, 2016 17:44
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TyrantWD posted:The KKK thing shouldn't weaken him all that much in a republican primary. what a sentence
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Mar 8, 2016 17:46
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lmao that people are buying trump's excuses about the kkk thing he doesn't support the klan but he got cocky and tried to do his usual controversy-walkback game and got burned for once don't whine when you roll the dice and get snake eyes after such a free ride so far
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Mar 8, 2016 18:06
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Harlock posted:Trump wins Michigan, Hawaii, Mississippi Rubio is gonna ride this poo poo train to the end as long as there's a glimmer of hope for a contested convention.
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Mar 8, 2016 18:09
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Peel posted:just talk about the undercard itt imo Patter Song posted:Hawaii: Who the gently caress knows. It's a caucus in a state with basically no Republicans. Turnout will be tiny and the outcome could be anything. Hawaii is probably going to go not-Trump, but whether it's Cruz or Rubio I have no loving idea. Mostly I just want to see Rubio fail hard and get at least one, preferably two fourth place finishes. Kick him in the gut right before Florida. 
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Mar 8, 2016 18:15
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:Rubio is gonna ride this poo poo train to the end as long as there's a glimmer of hope for a contested convention.
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Mar 8, 2016 18:20
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Going for chaos, Cruz gets 50+ in Idaho to get all the delegates. Kasich edges it out in MI, Trump wins MS, and who the gently caress knows with Hawaii
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Mar 8, 2016 18:22
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don't these fools understand the damage trump can and is doing to the republican party if i were a democrat trying to sabotage-vote, he'd get my vote 100%
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Mar 8, 2016 18:24
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dorkasaurus_rex posted:don't these fools understand the damage trump can and is doing to the republican party Yeah the guy growing GOP registration in every state (while Democrat participation plummets) is doing damage to the party. The donors may not like him, but he's doing a lot to create a new GOP that isn't a bizarre wedding of evangelical social goals and business interests. Narciss has issued a correction as of 18:30 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 18:27
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Narciss posted:Yeah the guy growing GOP registration in every state (while Democrat participation plummets) is doing damage to the party. The donors may not like him, but he's doing a lot to create a new GOP that isn't a bizarre wedding of evangelical social goals and business interests. Lol yeah it's a bizarre wedding of nationalism and socialism. Dunno what you'd call it.
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Mar 8, 2016 18:33
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Narciss posted:Yeah the guy growing GOP registration in every state (while Democrat participation plummets) is doing damage to the party. The donors may not like him, but he's doing a lot to create a new GOP that isn't a bizarre wedding of evangelical social goals and business interests. if you're spiking participation in your party's races to vote against you then you are not leading your party into a bright tomorrow he's still yet to get even half of the republicans in any state to vote for him
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Mar 8, 2016 18:34
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