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Pissflaps posted:An 'outlier'? Out of all the polls this month it shows Con/Green at their high end and Lab/LD/UKIP/SNP at their lower end. So it seems like an outlier. Not that I think these polls are any better than the pre-GE polls for the reason I mentioned above. Edit: 153 is the sum of the first five factorials. Lord of the Llamas fucked around with this message at 20:04 on Apr 30, 2016 |
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Apr 30, 2016 19:57
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Any more info on the "Israel supports ISIS" theory? Would love to hear more about that!
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Apr 30, 2016 19:58
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An 'outlier' would be a poll that bucks the trend of the majority, not one that reinforces what the rest are showing. Like one giving Labour a lead, for instance. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
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Apr 30, 2016 20:00
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"Bucking the trend" means any significant deviation from the trend, not simply one that is significant in terms of crossing an arbitrary threshold.
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Apr 30, 2016 20:02
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Pissflaps posted:An 'outlier' would be a poll that bucks the trend of the majority, not one that reinforces what the rest are showing. Yes you might call none of the results being near the median bucking the trend. One of us understands statistics. It's not you.
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Apr 30, 2016 20:06
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OwlFancier posted:"Bucking the trend" means any significant deviation from the trend, not simply one that is significant in terms of crossing an arbitrary threshold. that poll isn't much of an outlier though code:
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Apr 30, 2016 20:07
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Lord of the Llamas posted:Yes you might call none of the results being near the median bucking the trend. They are near the median. I've even provided you with other polling data. I don't think you're arguing in good faith.
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Apr 30, 2016 20:08
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Lord of the Llamas posted:Yes you might call none of the results being near the median bucking the trend. the median con lead since the beginning of the year is in fact 7, so i'd so the only firm conclusion that can be drawn from this poll is that you are a moron.
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Apr 30, 2016 20:13
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Pissflaps posted:They are near the median. From 8 polls this month: Con: =First Lab: =Last UKIP: 6/8 LD: =Last SNP: 5/8 Green: 1st So the SNP (and sort of the UKIP one) result is the only one near the median for that party this month. 4/6 of the parties are at their extremes for the month. I don't know where you studied but when two thirds of your variables are measured at their recent extremes that's not near the median. pointsofdata posted:the median con lead since the beginning of the year is in fact 7, so i'd so the only firm conclusion that can be drawn from this poll is that you are a moron. I said this month you moron.
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Apr 30, 2016 20:18
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pointsofdata posted:Any more info on the "Israel supports ISIS" theory? Would love to hear more about that! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5nigZzgf4Y
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Apr 30, 2016 20:19
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Lord of the Llamas posted:From 8 polls this month: You think 'first' and 'last' are statistical medians? And you're boasting that you 'understand statistics'? loving hell.
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Apr 30, 2016 20:21
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pointsofdata posted:Any more info on the "Israel supports ISIS" theory? Would love to hear more about that! The theory generally falls on the spectrum somewhere between plausible "Israel are supplying ISIL with materiel and advice via front companies" to ridiculous "every member of ISIL is Mossad in disguise". There's nothing specifically antisemitic about it when it is just leveled as an indictment of the Israeli government/intelligence services, any moreso than criticizing their assassination of Iranian scientists, which is why it is unusual that it's featured alongside completely unacceptable things like "Jews are vermin" and "Hitler was cool" as evidence that Labour is full of antisemites.
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Apr 30, 2016 20:28
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(Labour-led) Cardiff City Council is playing dirty in the upcoming elections. Phone-posting so no links atm but they've been sending employees out to remove Plaid posters from peoples' homes and now a pub has been getting harassed by council services since putting up signs in support of Plaid.
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Apr 30, 2016 20:31
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Pissflaps posted:You think 'first' and 'last' are statistical medians? No the median is the middle which is why having 4/6 of the results at the top or bottom of the rankings is indicative that this poll is not representative of the median results??? Edit: Here would be the median poll of the month: Con: 35.5% Lab: 32.5% UKIP: 16% LD: 6.5% SNP: 5.5% Green: 4% So Con +3 over Lab. Does the Opinium poll look like that? No. Lord of the Llamas fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Apr 30, 2016 |
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Apr 30, 2016 20:34
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Piss(flaps) is bad for Corbyn because
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Apr 30, 2016 20:38
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Pissflaps posted:They are near the median. Pissflaps posted:You think 'first' and 'last' are statistical medians? lol
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Apr 30, 2016 20:40
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these polls look like they're barely within the error bars of each other, and that's just accounting for statistical uncertainty. that includes comparing the poll pissflaps got all eyepoppy about with the other recent ones a pox on both your houses
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Apr 30, 2016 20:42
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Angepain posted:these polls look like they're barely within the error bars of each other, and that's just accounting for statistical uncertainty. that includes comparing the poll pissflaps got all eyepoppy about with the other recent ones The 8% Tory lead in the Opinium poll (the next highest lead this month was 5%, and others had Lab +3%) is not within the margin of error. A pox on me for engaging Pissflaps on this issue given that these polls are probably garbage for the reason I gave above anyway.
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Apr 30, 2016 20:50
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Lord of the Llamas posted:The 8% Tory lead in the Opinium poll (the next highest lead this month was 5%, and others had Lab +3%) is not within the margin of error. I meant comparing individual party figures between polls, not comparing party figures within them. Really though, a pox on all of us for posting at all.
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Apr 30, 2016 20:55
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Lord of the Llamas posted:From 8 polls this month: If you are looking at a sample of eight polls, you'd expect at least a quarter of values to be either at their lower or higher extremes. More if there are ties in the values, which there are in the case of LDs and Greens. So having 4 out of 6 be extreme is actually fairly unsurprising, especially if you consider that the values are correlated (high con basically implies low lab in most cases). I reserve judgement on whether this poll is a pointless outlier or not, but your reasoning is terrible. Also if even the results are very different from polls conducted a month ago doesn't mean it is rubbish. In case you didn't notice, stuff happened this last week. Fangz fucked around with this message at 21:00 on Apr 30, 2016 |
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Apr 30, 2016 20:55
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Fangz posted:If you are looking at a sample of eight polls, you'd expect at least a quarter of values to be either at their lower or higher extremes. More if there are ties in the values, which there are in the case of LDs and Greens. So having 4 out of 6 be extreme is actually fairly unsurprising, especially if you consider that the values are correlated (high con basically implies low lab in most cases). I never said the poll was "surprising", just that it was an outlier. You just described why an outlier poll might exhibit the kind distribution of values we see but your argument doesn't go against that judgement? If anything what you're saying is that we should expect a bimodal distribution of polls - those with most values near the median and those with most values near the extremes. On the face of it that seems fair and even with that assumption this poll seems on the edge compared to other recent polls. Edit: I never said the poll was "rubbish" just that Pissflaps shouldn't get excited? It was literally just a response to him using the eye-popping gif. Lord of the Llamas fucked around with this message at 21:07 on Apr 30, 2016 |
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Apr 30, 2016 21:04
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I don't need to be a graduate of the Statistics School for Average Students to be able to spot horse poo poo when I see it. A poll showing the Tories with a lead of 8% is not an outlier.
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Apr 30, 2016 21:15
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Pissflaps posted:I don't need to be a graduate of the Statistics School for Average Students to be able to spot horse poo poo when I see it. Yeah you're right the average lead since the budget is 2% so this seems about right.
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Apr 30, 2016 21:20
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Selecting exactly the right sample to back up a lovely argument must be a third year module.
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Apr 30, 2016 21:23
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Because when one poll shows Labour +3 and the next shows Cons +8 we all know the results must be given as much weight as possible.
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Apr 30, 2016 21:26
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Pissflaps posted:Selecting exactly the right sample to back up a lovely argument must be a third year module. That's rich coming from someone who only selects a sample size of one. When it's a bad poll for Labour.
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Apr 30, 2016 21:27
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just gently caress already
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Apr 30, 2016 21:28
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Lord of the Llamas posted:That's rich coming from someone who only selects a sample size of one. When it's a bad poll for Labour. They always are these days.
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Apr 30, 2016 21:30
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lol at nobody ever learning their lesson
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Apr 30, 2016 21:30
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Fans should exile Pissflaps from the UKMT and doom him to roam the trackless, racist wastes of D&D until he learns some moral lesson about shutting the gently caress up. It'll be a heartwarming tale for future generations. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 30, 2016 21:36
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Pissflaps posted:They always are these days. Yes the three polls showing Labour ahead were terrible for Labour. And Corbyn being the most trusted leader on Europe. And Sadiq Khan consistently being ahead in the London election. Until recently a +8 lead for Tories would've been normal. Now it's an outlier. Just admit that you don't want Labour to do well because you're drooling for the return of Blairism.
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Apr 30, 2016 21:37
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Oberleutnant posted:Fans should exile Pissflaps from the UKMT and doom him to roam the trackless, racist wastes of D&D until he learns some moral lesson about shutting the gently caress up. It'll be a heartwarming tale for future generations. i like watching these stupid fuckers get into arguments with him they never win
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Apr 30, 2016 21:39
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Lord of the Llamas posted:Yes the three polls showing Labour ahead were terrible for Labour. Yes. The three polls from the single polling company showing labour no more than three points ahead of this Tory government are loving atrocious.
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Apr 30, 2016 21:42
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A bunch of very nerdy people have been poring over ISIS's arsenal and where it comes from, like our very own Brown Moses. The general idea seems to be that it's a combo of American-made weaponry captured from the Iraqi military and US/US ally-approved Syrian rebels and and breakaway factions, Russian-made weaponry captured from Syrian government forces and their Russian/Iranian-backed allies, and bought from the vast Eastern European black market using taxes and oil money, and insane Mad Max-style improvised stuff. There's no evidence of any national governments arming them as a deliberate political agenda (though funding them via oil sales is quite a different matter), for the two simple reasons that (a) they're far too volatile and tainted as a brand, and (b) the Syrian civil war is so fragmented that regardless of your political preference, there's always a better and nicer-looking alternative to give guns to. Even the hardcore Sunni theocracies of the Arabian peninsula who'd back Literal Al-Qa'eda have more appealing options like Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian al-Qa'eda branch that ISIS was born of a splinter of, who are still very nasty but haven't committed even an order of magnitude as many war crimes as either ISIS or Assad's SAA. I can see Mossad being less than discriminatory in the rebel groups it gives weapons to, maybe even giving them to hardcore fundies like al-Nusra or Ahrar al-Sham (in fact, there's solid evidence Israel's been situationally backing JAN), but ISIS? Nah, no point. Darth Walrus fucked around with this message at 21:50 on Apr 30, 2016 |
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Apr 30, 2016 21:44
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Jose posted:i like watching these stupid fuckers get into arguments with him they never win
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Apr 30, 2016 21:45
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Oberleutnant posted:I don't because he never has anything contributory to say. No conversation on any subject is ever advanced by a post from pissflaps. He's a black hole where interesting conversations go to die. i think of this every time i see it 
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Apr 30, 2016 21:50
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Pissflaps posted:Yes. They're the best the polls have been for Labour since the general election. But I agree that many of the the British people are atrocious. It's probably because there's entire generation of people who have lived their entire adult lives being told that the post-Thatcher neoliberal consensus was a good idea.
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Apr 30, 2016 21:50
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Lord of the Llamas posted:They're the best the polls have been for Labour since the general election. That's the atrocious part. But I agree that Corbyn stinks of piss and must resign tonight.
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Apr 30, 2016 22:09
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Thanks for posting this! It's surprisingly funny given I'm only reading subtitles. My blessings! Prince John fucked around with this message at 22:17 on Apr 30, 2016 |
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Apr 30, 2016 22:15
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Pissflaps posted:That's the atrocious part. You're atrocious. Definitely the median Brit.
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Apr 30, 2016 22:18
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