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sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
Forgetting redraft and it's weird RB premium, the Zeke hype in dynasty has reached pretty crazy levels. People strongly preferring him to Gurley straight up, thinking Evans and multiple 2017 1sts for him in full PPR is fair, etc. There is going to be so much gnashing of teeth when he doesn't have the best rookie season by an RB in 20 years.

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Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
lmao Brad Evans just dropped a post that boils down to "if you don't want to take Zeke in the first you're a big ol pussy"

He also is the guy with David Johnson as RB #1

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Spoeank posted:

lmao Brad Evans just dropped a post that boils down to "if you don't want to take Zeke in the first you're a big ol pussy"

He also is the guy with David Johnson as RB #1

He is the biggest fantasy blowhard on twitter dot com

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Speaking of Zeke, I ended up lucking into the 1.01 and 1.03 picks in my main dynasty league by trading in-season. I'm thinking of capitalizing on the hype train by selling the 1.01.

We're entering Year 2 of our league, and I dominated the regular season and ended up placing 3rd overall in 2015. My team is a strong contender again this year - and the guy with the 1.02 pick is hot after Zeke. I'm thinking of asking for the 1.02 + Jordy (for my second flex spot) or 1.02 + 2017 1st. Not too crazy of asks I should think, given current market value.

My team:
12 team, start 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 RB/WR/TE FLX 1 K 1 D/ST, .5 PPR

QB: Palmer, Rivers
RB: Yeldon, Lewis, Mathews, Gore, Ivory, Foster, Lynch, Hightower, Cobb
WR: ARob, Dez, Marshall, DJax, Snead, Stevie Johnson, Smelter, Conley, Strong
TE: Gronk, Walford, Amaro
D/ST: Texans
Draft Picks: 1.01, 1.03, 3.11

Zeke might be the shot in the arm I need to win now, but long-term if I can trade him for the 1.02 and a 2017 1st my team would likely be better off. The rest of my team is good enough that I could probably get by with my current RB situation, but there are a lot of injury risk names there...

What do you all think?

Azhais
Feb 5, 2007
Switchblade Switcharoo
I think I'd rather have Zeke than a 30 year old WR or a 2017 roulette spin. I'm not as on board with the Zeke hype train as most, but I have minimal confidence in anyone other than him this year.

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Where should I look for strategies on how to do a first year Dynasty draft? My normal re-draft league is going to also do everyone's first dynasty league this year, and I'd like to try to take advantage of our lack of knowledge.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

RCarr posted:

Where should I look for strategies on how to do a first year Dynasty draft? My normal re-draft league is going to also do everyone's first dynasty league this year, and I'd like to try to take advantage of our lack of knowledge.

That should be super easy to do, haha. Easy first place is to just look at fantasy pros keeper rankings. Not sure where the best free rankings are anymore, but dynastyleaguefootball.com, fftoday.com, and fantasy pros have some. The dynastyff subreddit might have other useful links and info, but just keep in mind the consensus there skews harder towards youth and upside than some places.

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

I assume most people will bring some sort of dynasty based rankings. Is there anything like "Ignore all older players and load up on young lottery tickets, etc" that would give me some strategy beyond trying to land the most valuable player possible with each pick?

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
At some point, you sort of have to take value when the draft gives it to you. But you can have a general idea for whether you want to dominate the next year or two or build longer term. If you take Brown and DT with your first two picks, Jordy in the 4th or 5th might be perfect. If you take Cooper and Parker, though, probably better to gamble on someone like DGB or a rookie at that spot. If you take guys for win now, you need to pay attention to your competitiveness at RB and TE a bit more. You basically dont want to punt at any position. If you're going younger, you can almost ignore RB; better to take a handful of low cost, speculative guys, and in a year or two you can see which hit and trade for better RBs then. In general, just try to get a roster together that is full of guys likely to peak together, though of course you don't have to go fully one way or the other.

Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.

RCarr posted:

"Ignore all older players and load up on young lottery tickets, etc"

That is the complete crux of your draft strategy in a nutshell. Your main decision will be whether you want to lean into win-now mode, take a more developmental approach, or something in between the two.

Traditionally WRs are the most valued position because a young guy just stepping into his prime can give you a reliable 3-5 years of top flight production with minimal turn over or injury risk. Guys like OBJ and AJ Green are the most valuable players in a dynasty startup draft for that reason. RBs get drafted way too early by inexperienced dynasty players, so take advantage of the guy who picks ADP in the first two rounds and focus on names like Jeremy Langford, and Matt Jones in the later rounds. In all positions try to maintain a long term focus while striking a balance between value-pick guys who are solid but in the twilight of their careers, guys who are producing and killing it right now, and young lottery ticket guys who are just getting ready to take the next big step.

That was a bit of a ramble, but hope it helps.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Take WRs early if it's a dynasty league.

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

There are a ton of different strategies out there, but I'll try to distill a few commmon themes I've picked up from playing in a few leagues and digesting way too much content (articles, podcasts) on the subject.

This is my personal philosophy:

Focus on building your team on a strong core young wide receivers with upside. WRs have the longest careers, and as such, retain value longer than RBs. They also have more trade value in most leagues.

Avoid taking veterans (specifically 27 or 28 +) in early rounds unless you're getting great value. Veterans in later rounds are fine, but use your top draft picks to stockpile players who either project to keep or increase value over the next 2-3 years. Don't build your team looking to compete in year 1.

Don't get rookie fever. Look for opportunities to grab post-hype sleepers or sophomores/3rd year players who underperformed and didn't take the field last year (White, Perriman, Agholor, T. Coleman). Rookies are way overhyped and valued at this time of year.

Stockpile backup RBs and third-down backs in the mid-late rounds. Especially in PPR formats, pass catching RBs can put up decent production even without a full load of touches (Theo Riddick for example), and with RB attrition, backups can quickly find themselves stepping into the lead role (see last year - Devonta Freeman, Buck Allen, even Tim Hightower) due to injury. Trade RBs who you don't see keeping their value beyond the season.

I'm a late round QB guy, and think you can get by just fine with the Philip Rivers/Andy Dalton platoon approach. If you want to grab Luck, Cam or Rodgers early to not have to worry about the position, that's viable as well, especially if they fall to where they are a value.

TE is usually Gronk or nothing. In a year or two, I'd recommend against taking Gronk in the first round due to age and Brady retiring, but I still think it's a fine move this year. If not Gronk, I'd grab a cheaper vet and a young guy with high upside (ASJ, Ertz, etc.). Eifert and Reed are too expensive IMO.

If trading picks during the draft is allowed, look for opportunities to trade back to accrue value. Make a tier list for each position, and use that to help find opportunities: if a tier ends before your pick, look for an opportunity to trade out to acquire future rookie picks and mid-late round startup picks.

Don't be afraid to trade up for 'your guy' either, just don't sell the farm to do it.

Trading might be hard the first year as people get attached to the teams they drafted and built, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't be talking to owners and sending feeler offers to keep the lines of communication open.

Try to trade for draft picks (especially first rounders) in season, especially if you aren't competing. 2017 is looking like a stacked class, especially for RBs, and the cost will only get more expensive after the season ends.

There's probably more, but that's already a huge wall of text so...

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Thanks for all the info. Much appreciated! I'm excited!

Is there an agreed up "default" set of dynasty league rules? Auction would be the preferred draft type, correct? What about salary caps, penalties for keeping players multiple years, etc.

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Also, I just did a startup last week for a brand new dynasty league with some new owners, if you want to use our draft for a general reference for where players are going. My team is 'Nuk the Whales.'

http://www66.myfantasyleague.com/2016/options?L=69189&O=113&DISPLAY=LEAGU

Happy to do a postmortem on my approach and the decisions I made (good and bad - there are both), if it interests you (or anyone else). It's Friday, and dynasty fantasy football is the poo poo.

Edit: Here's my final roster - http://www66.myfantasyleague.com/2016/options?L=69189&O=07&F=0005

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Please do a write-up if you don't mind. I'd love to hear your reasoning, and like you said: it's Friday, and dynasty fantasy football is the poo poo.

Question: What does "taxi squad" mean?

RCarr fucked around with this message at 20:25 on May 13, 2016

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Cervixalot posted:

Also, I just did a startup last week for a brand new dynasty league with some new owners, if you want to use our draft for a general reference for where players are going. My team is 'Nuk the Whales.'

http://www66.myfantasyleague.com/2016/options?L=69189&O=113&DISPLAY=LEAGU

Happy to do a postmortem on my approach and the decisions I made (good and bad - there are both), if it interests you (or anyone else). It's Friday, and dynasty fantasy football is the poo poo.

Edit: Here's my final roster - http://www66.myfantasyleague.com/2016/options?L=69189&O=07&F=0005

Doesn't look like too many crazy picks, and fairly representative of what I've been seeing lately, FYI RCarr.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

RCarr posted:

Please do a write-up if you don't mind. I'd love to hear your reasoning, and like you said: it's Friday, and dynasty fantasy football is the poo poo.

Question: What does "taxi squad" mean?

Taxi squad is for players, usually rookies, to get out onto when you draft them. Players on taxi squad cannot start for you, unless you move them from taxi to active roster. Typically that's an irreversible decision. However, they don't take up a spot on your active roster while on the taxi squad, so you get to stash them away and wait for them to develop. Depending on the league, the taxi squad might have an experience or production limit (ie, must be rookie or sophomore, must have fewer than 50 catches in career, that kind of thing).

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Ok, that's twice I've spent way too long writing a post that's gotten eaten by the quick reply tab. I'm going to have to write this up later, sorry RCarr.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Something I'm working on for GroundControl: ballparking the greatest single-game rushing performances of the decade so far. I'm defining it as the game that would have been the least probable for a league-average back to pull off (sort of).

I'll leave the details for later, but here's the log of yards gained on rushing attempts for the current best game as a teaser:

-1 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 11 12 17 18 18 18

A run (by a running back) only gains 5 yards or more about a quarter of the time in the NFL. This person had 20 5+ yard runs in a single game.

edit: I think this one is my favorite though: 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 10 11 11 12 12 14 28 37

Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 23:51 on May 13, 2016

VietCampo
Aug 24, 2010

Forever_Peace posted:



-1 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 11 12 17 18 18 18



Just as a guess, i'm thinking Moreno, i vaguely remember him doing 3 18 yard runs in OT once.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah

VietCampo posted:

Just as a guess, i'm thinking Moreno, i vaguely remember him doing 3 18 yard runs in OT once.

Yep.

For reference, here's what a sort of "middle of the road" game might look like, from Eddie Lacy last year (week 5):
-1 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 8

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012
If decade is being used as a nebulous term my guess is cj2k

If it's being used as strictly the 2010s my guess is Charles

E: drat I was way wrong

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Metapod posted:

If decade is being used as a nebulous term my guess is cj2k

If it's being used as strictly the 2010s my guess is Charles

E: drat I was way wrong

Yeah 2010s.

Charles had one of the top 5 games in both 2010 and 2012. CJ2K is #2 in 2011 with this from week 12:
-5 -3 -3 0 0 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 8 9 9 10 12 13 15 20 24 25 34

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I started up a new dynasty auction league last year. You might find the recruit thread useful; it's where we hashed out the rules, scoring, etc.
You may also find our league rules useful. We initially started on ESPN, which prevented us from implementing taxi squads and some other advanced stuff. This year we're moving to a paid MFL league, which has those features, so our rules will be changing a bit. We are also probably going to tweak the IDP rules.

MacheteZombie
Feb 4, 2007
I just drafted Tyler Ervin in the second round to handcuff my Lamar Miller. (2.09) I feel bad for it, but I always feel compelled to handcuff my rbs.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
The worst game since 2010 is harder to estimate, but it really might be this one from Joique Bell last year (week 3):

-1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 3

Ouch.

edit: although a 31-year-old Chester Taylor did this in 2010:
-2 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 2 4 5

Followed four weeks later with this:
-3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 4 5

MacheteZombie
Feb 4, 2007

Forever_Peace posted:

The worst game since 2010 is harder to estimate, but it really might be this one from Joique Bell last year (week 3):

-1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 3

Ouch.

edit: although a 31-year-old Chester Taylor did this in 2010:
-2 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 2 4 5

Followed four weeks later with this:
-3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 4 5

Is that Joique Bell line a full game with no injury?

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012
Chester Taylor now there is a name I haven't heard in a long time

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah

MacheteZombie posted:

Is that Joique Bell line a full game with no injury?

Yup. Plus a reception for a two yard loss.

But hey Chris Harris loves the guy woohoo fantasy sleeper status!

MacheteZombie
Feb 4, 2007

Forever_Peace posted:

Yup. Plus a reception for a two yard loss.

But hey Chris Harris loves the guy woohoo fantasy sleeper status!

So bad. So very very bad.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

MacheteZombie posted:

Is that Joique Bell line a full game with no injury?

That line is every Joique Bell full game line

The Aguamoose
Jan 10, 2006
"Yes, I remember the Aguamoose..."
I'm in the midst of my first ever dynasty draft, and ended up with the 4th pick in a 12 team 0.5 ppr. 1qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1 TE, 2 flex

So far I've drafted:
1. Beckham Jr.
2. Keenan Allen
3. Demaryius Thomas
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. John Brown (bit of a reach but have lots of faith in him)
6. Dion Lewis
7. Josh Doctson
8. Eric Ebron
9. Nelson Agholor
10. Charles Sims (assuming the 1 guy left to pick before me this round doesn't take him)

I'm pretty happy with what I have so far in terms of building a team for the future. I aimed to go young WR heavy and early along the lines of some of the advice earlier on the page, but took Thomas and Rodgers purely due to value where they had fallen to. I picked up Ebron after a bit of a run on TEs.

To help me make my picks I put a spreadsheet together which has the ADP data from dynastyfftools.com and also the expert ranking from fantasy pros. It also has Matt Harmon's WR tiers on there as I have a lot of faith in his reception perception analysis, so I can use all 3 sources of info to see whether anyone remaining is good value. I can definitely recommend doing something similar to anyone else doing a startup draft, it has been really helpful.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

The Aguamoose posted:

I'm in the midst of my first ever dynasty draft, and ended up with the 4th pick in a 12 team 0.5 ppr. 1qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1 TE, 2 flex

So far I've drafted:
1. Beckham Jr.
2. Keenan Allen
3. Demaryius Thomas
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. John Brown (bit of a reach but have lots of faith in him)
6. Dion Lewis
7. Josh Doctson
8. Eric Ebron
9. Nelson Agholor
10. Charles Sims (assuming the 1 guy left to pick before me this round doesn't take him)

I'm pretty happy with what I have so far in terms of building a team for the future. I aimed to go young WR heavy and early along the lines of some of the advice earlier on the page, but took Thomas and Rodgers purely due to value where they had fallen to. I picked up Ebron after a bit of a run on TEs.

To help me make my picks I put a spreadsheet together which has the ADP data from dynastyfftools.com and also the expert ranking from fantasy pros. It also has Matt Harmon's WR tiers on there as I have a lot of faith in his reception perception analysis, so I can use all 3 sources of info to see whether anyone remaining is good value. I can definitely recommend doing something similar to anyone else doing a startup draft, it has been really helpful.

Looks good. How did the first round go? I'm pretty surprised OBJ lasted til 4. I'm guessing Brown, Julio, annnd an RB, probably Gurley (?) went top 3.

The Aguamoose
Jan 10, 2006
"Yes, I remember the Aguamoose..."
First round was actually very WR heavy, it went:

1. Brown
2. Julio
3.Hopkins
4. OBJ
5.ARob
6. Bell
7. Newton
8. D Johnson
9. Amari Cooper
10. Gurley
11. Evans
12. Gronk

Was definitely surprised at OBJ falling to 4, but not complaining!

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
First four rounds were stellar, which is the most important thing. Docston/Ebron/Agholor could sting later, but you're still looking fairly alright.

You need upside RBs now. Look for any of the following (assuming top 30 are gone):

McKinnon, Ryan Mathews, JStew, Coleman, Arian Foster, Jordan Howard, Prosise, Kenyan Drake, Charcandrick West, Ivory, Forsett, Cameron Artis-Payne, Alfred Morris, Lorenzo Taliaferro, LeGarrette Blount, Zach Zenner,

probably in that order for me.

I don't trust Ebron, but you can't afford to spend mid-round capital on another TE. Try to nab Charles Clay or Clive Walford in the late rounds.

Don't take a DST or K until the end of the draft, unless you have bizzaro scoring. DSTs are volatile from season to season, and Ks are all the same and don't really matter.

Rankings start to mean less the later you go. Don't be afraid to start "reaching" to just take the guy you like (after 10 rounds, "reaching" isn't even really a thing - just take the guy you like most that you think won't be there next round).

The Aguamoose
Jan 10, 2006
"Yes, I remember the Aguamoose..."
Thanks for your thoughts. The league doesn't have kickers or defenses, though if it did I would have done as you suggest, that has always worked well for me in redraft.

Doctson and Agholor I drafted in part because their reception perception results were excellent, with Harmon being bullish on both. While Doctson might take a year or two to become a starter behind Garcon and Jackson I sort of view him as my potential Thomas replacement in a couple of years. Also there is a common assumption that agholor will see less coverage and more targets with Matthews moving outside, which I guess I am gambling on a bit.

I did have less to back up the Ebron pick, admittedly, it was mainly an assumption /hope that a portion of Megatron's orphaned targets would go his way, and the improvement in Stafford since Jim Bob Cooter took over the offense. I won't be taking another TE (and my qb backup) until around the last round though. The run on TEs that prompted the pick means that Walford has actually already gone (before Ebron)!

I'll definitely be targeting a lot of the RBs you suggested that are remaining, with my 11th pick a little while ago I actually already took Mckinnon, and am sounding out the Peterson owner just in case he'll overpay for him. Thanks for the list as there are a couple I hadn't considered.

I am also interested in Keith Marshall, as I don't rate Matt Jones much, and because it's 0.5 PPR DeAndre Washington from oakland, Daniel Lasco from NO and Josh Robinson from Indy as I think all have the opportunity to take over passing downs for their respective teams.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Sure thing!

Not saying you didn't get good value for Doctson/Agholor. Given the lack of RBs, I would have just probably preferred any of Latavius/Karlos Williams/Abdullah/Hill if they were still around. But yeah both got plenty of upside.

I wouldn't have particularly high hopes for RB passing work in Oakland considering their criminal underuse of Reece and Helu. Josh Robinson is like 6th on the depth chart right now and might not see the field. Don't know anything about Lasco.

Nice job getting McKinnon. My nearest-neighbor algorithm on run distributions liked him a lot.

The Aguamoose
Jan 10, 2006
"Yes, I remember the Aguamoose..."
I need to explore tff more, I had missed that thread completely but it's the kind of thing I lap up. I love your explanations of the process as I enjoy analytics but don't have a background in it so am trying to learn. Thanks for linking it, I'll read through it all soon.

I made a mistake in getting Josh Robinson mixed up with Josh Ferguson, Evan Silva wrote about him which is what put him on my radar - http://sports.yahoo.com/news/silva-dynasty-rookie-rankings-040500527--nfl.html

This article on player profiler got me interested in Lasco, it was written before he was drafted by NO and to me it seems like he might possibly be what they were hoping for when they signed Spiller:

http://www.playerprofiler.com/article/tyler-ervin-rookie-running-backs/

You're probably already aware of the site but they compare players using similar methods to in your thread, though put more emphasis on combine metric data rather than output.

e: Murray and Abdullah were both gone before the Doctson pick unfortunately, the RBs had been flying off the board.

The Aguamoose fucked around with this message at 16:06 on May 14, 2016

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Dynasty Startup Draft Journal, Part 1:

Link to completed draft: http://www66.myfantasyleague.com/2016/options?L=69189&O=17

I outlined my dynasty strategy/philosophy in a previous post (http://forums.somethingawful.com/newreply.php#post459844645), which is the general roadmap I planned to follow for this startup.

Essentially, I decided I'd shoot to take WRs in the first 4-6 rounds, grab pass-catching and backup RBs in the mid-rounds, and take a young high upside/veteran platoon approach to TE and QB, unless players fell to values that I couldn't pass up. I also decided that there were two players I wanted to leave the draft with at whatever cost (within reason), and was willing to reach and/or overpay a bit to obtain them: Kevin White, and one of the three top tier rookie WRs (Treadwell, Coleman, Doctson).

I was assigned the 1.04 draft slot in the 12 man snake draft at random. To me, this represented the end of the top tier of 4 WRs (Odell, Nuk, Antonio, Julio), and I was happy to end up with any of those 4 as a key anchor to my team. However, I did make some attempts to trade back late into the first to take an ARob/Evans/Watkins type add some 2017 rookie picks or mid round startup picks, but couldn't make a deal happen.

The draft was done through MFL, with a 4-hour clock for each pick, with the clock stopping after I believe 9 PM EST. The league uses the GroupMe app, which allows for group chat and direct messaging opportunities, which made it easy to do trade negotiations throughout the draft. We kicking things off on a Sunday morning.

12 Teams, 1 PPR, 6 Point Passing TDs
Start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 2 RB/WR/TE FLX, 1 TE

1.04 - Julio Jones, WR
No surprises here. After my unsuccessful attemps to trade back, I was happy to take Julio Jones, who I feel should keep his #1 WR upside for the next 2-3 years. He's a target monster, and in a 1 PPR format, that will add up quickly every week. I don't love that he is 27 years old (and ended up being my oldest WR), but he should still be an excellent core asset for my team for the next few years. That said, I may consider shopping him around to move down to that next tier of young guys before the end of the 2016 season.

2.09 - Kevin White, WR
I had hoped that one of the Keenan Allen/Cooks/Alshon tier of WRs would fall to me here, but after two tradeups and a run on WRs, I had no such luck. Since the next group of WRs is the 'poised for breakout group' of Parker/Moncrief/White, I made a bit of a reach here and took my favorite of the group in White. I'm a Bears fan, so it's partially a homer pick, but Kevin White would easily be the top WR in this 2016 rookie class, and by all accounts, have recovered nicely in the offseason. His size and athleticism are really good, and his later college production also bodes well for a promising career. He is a guy I could see being a top 12 dynasty asset in a year or two, so this pick is largely on upside and homerism :)

Parker and Moncrief went 1-2 right after me, and at least one guy on chat lamented White going off the board, so I'm pretty confident that I would have had to reach to get him here.

3.04 - T.Y. Hilton, WR
I considered Hilton at 2.09 as a safer investment than White, so I was pleased to have him make it around again to me. I think Luck's injury last year led to a decrease in Hilton's value, and though he's 26, is another solid building block WR with many years of production ahead of him. To this point, I haven't seen any RBs, QBs or TEs fall to me that I would consider overwhelming value, so it's been pretty easy so far to stick to my original gameplan.

Obviously, not everyone agreed, as after my pick, there was a mini a run on QBs with three selected in a row. That's great for me, as it means more WRs are getting pushed down the board to my next pick!

Laquon Treadwell was the first rookie WR off the board at 3.11, and with 10 picks still remaining until I selected again, I decided to try and trade up to grab one of Josh Doctson or Corey Coleman, who I considered neck in neck for the #2 WR spot in this class. I opened negotiations with the owner with the 3.12 and 4.01, as well as the owner of the 4.02 to see what it would cost to move up in the fourth.

The guy on the turn wanted a 2017 1st rounder to move up 10 slots, which was a non-starter to me. After seeing him select DGB with the first of his two picks, I focused on the 4.02 owner and ended up getting a deal done with him.

TRADE UP! 4.02 - Josh Docston, WR
After negotiation, I gave up my 5.04 and 7.04 pick for the 4.02 and 10.02. I moved down three rounds to move up one, essentially. I gave up value to do so, but I felt that it was worth it in this case. Rookie player value tends to be insulated from year 1 to year 2, so if I end up souring on my player's prospects, I should be able to still trade him for at least 75% of his original value, next offseason, barring catastrophic injury or off the field issues.

Given my investment of high draft capital into White, who still carries a decent amount of risk, I wanted my next unproven pick to be 'safer.' Out of Coleman and Doctson, I felt that Doctson was the safer of the two picks, and most likely to retain value through next year, especially if he only gets limited playing time this year (possible, given his landing spot and the WAS depth chart). Doctson got great size, instincts and hands, and will be an excellent red zone threat for Washington.

4.09 - Breshad Perriman, WR
After making a 'safer' pick in Docston, I went ahead and threw caution to the wind and took another unproven sophomore who didn't see the field last year. This is a 'blinded by upside' pick, and probably my biggest regret of the draft. Injury and depth chart concerns still loom large with Perriman, but if he can get healthy and put it together, he can be Joe Flacco's best friend and deep threat for the next 5-7 years. Dude has an insane size/speed combo.

In my defense, I did try to trade back to accrue some later picks here, but had no luck. In retrospect, I probably should have taken Tyler Lockett here rather than roll the dice again on an eye popping measurables guy. I might try shopping Perriman to see what I can get.

5.04 - Traded pick away to move up to 4.02.


That's it for now. In my next post, I'll talk about why I traded up again in Round 6, and shifting from drafting WRs to RBs.

Quarterroys fucked around with this message at 17:15 on May 14, 2016

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Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Holy smokes that's a lot of risk. On their own, the White, Perriman, and Doctson moves are all potentially individually justifiable for a gambler, but doing all three with nearly the entirety of early draft capital is ballsy as hell. Two years from now you could be just as easily dead last as a perennial winner. But hey, I guess that's better than being stuck in neutral forever!

Interested in hearing why you took Smelter over Coleman, Wright, or Bennett. That's the only really strange one in the mid-rounds for me - I really like the Lewis/Prosise/McKinnon/Ben picks.

Gronk Wears Short Shorts crushed it, despite spending like ten picks on shameless Pats homerism and a 3rd on Freeman over Miller/TY/Kelvin.

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