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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:2.2 PPG is the difference between the WR24 and the WR12. It's not slim. It's funny, I see this as evidence for my point. Here is a list of the 13th-24th (I assume you meant WR13) WRs in espn standard scoring for 2015: Demaryius Thomas, Den WR Allen Hurns, Jax WR Jarvis Landry, Mia WR Sammy Watkins, Buf WR Jeremy Maclin, KC WR Emmanuel Sanders, Den WR Michael Crabtree, Oak WR Jordan Matthews, Phi WR T.Y. Hilton, Ind WR Tavon Austin, LA WR John Brown, Ari WR Ted Ginn Jr., Car WR Demayrius thomas the exception, for reasons that don't really factor in to this comparison, I wouldn't reach for any of these guys. Allen hurns had over 2 more points per game than Ted Ginn, but I'm not going to reach for him a round or two earlier just to get that sick 2 point advantage. I'm going to fill out my team and let one of these fall to me for value. Now, factor in the fact that kicker has always been the most varied position in terms of fantasy scoring, and it makes me want to reach for Gostkowski even less. Sure, he came in first two seasons in a row, but the rest of the kicker position is just a jumble. I can see how someone might value this "edge" enough to take them in the 12th, but I'd rather take a lottery kicker, a handcuff, or a second QB in round 12 than a kicker who might just end up on my bench the first four games if the offense implodes without a qb.
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May 24, 2016 02:22
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Also, in PPR, the difference between WR13 and WR24 comes out to exactly 4 points per game for 2015 OBviously, Gostkoswki's differential remains the same. Still, I am enjoying this debate for standard leagues
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May 24, 2016 02:53
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MFL10 ADP since May 10:  Zeke at seven
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May 24, 2016 04:57
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Spoeank posted:MFL10 ADP since May 10: It's scary how good his prospects are. The best line in the league with a team showing signs of emphasizing the power running game. It's pretty tempting.
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May 24, 2016 05:03
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If everything, and literally everything breaks his way he's worth a first-round pick. If the Cowboys baby him in the slightest. Like, say, not pound him at the goal line because they have a monstrous back on a one year contract, then he isn't worth the first round pick. Also he's not sexy so people are overlooking him (and he's in danger of sliding down draft boards due to his lack of sexiness), but go get AJ Green in the second if he's there. Literally the only WR to have 1000 yards each of the last five seasons. Spoeank fucked around with this message at 05:16 on May 24, 2016 |
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May 24, 2016 05:12
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I really like Zeke but loving lol at drafting him over Gronk or Green
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May 24, 2016 08:51
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Drafting near the end and getting a stud WR and AJ Green on the turn seems like a good way to go about things.
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May 24, 2016 12:36
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I don't like to draft anything but sure things* in the first, even at the end of the first. If it means grabbing a WR where normally I would have gone RB, so be it, but ideally you'd want to save that first round capital on one's historical production and likelihood of continuing that production. *I know
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May 24, 2016 15:38
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I've been planning to do my own top down projections this year. Basically trying to project how many total rushing/receiving/passing yards + catches/tds a team will have, and then break that down into how many catches/yards individual players will have and then go from there for my fantasy rankings. Does anyone here do this? It's a little overwhelming, but I think it will be manageable. If anyone knows about some good resources for this type of thing I would love to hear about them. Right now it looks like I'm going to be leaning pretty heavily on http://www.pro-football-reference.com/ for historical stats.
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May 24, 2016 16:05
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What do you guys think of Tyler Eifert this year? I got lucky enough last year to pick him up in Round 11 or 12 last year so obviously got a huge amount of value out of him. The biggest question I think is if he can maintain his TD numbers since his receptions/yardage totals weren't anything special. I want to say he will regress from 13 TD's last year, but let's look at the situation. The only other red-zone receiving threat on the team is AJ Green, and despite Eifert nabbing 13 TD's, Green still had 10 (only 1 less than his season-high), so I don't see that being cause for concern. The other real unknown is if losing Sanu and Jones will open up more targets (and hence more receptions and yardage) for Eifert. I think it's reasonable to think they will go up since the Bengals did not pick up a WR in free agency, although they did grab one in the 2nd round. Looking at TE's other than Gronk, Olsen is certainly at the top but I have to think his numbers go down slightly next year with Benjamin back in the mix. He also is not nearly the same red-zone threat as Eifert, given how often Cam/JStew run the ball in. I think that in the league I am in, even though there is decent competition, TE's are usually drafted on name recognition. I can see Reed and Walker slipping to the 6th+ where I think I can get good value. I know there is injury risk with Reed but the dude looked incredible last year and made some amazing plays and finished as the #2 TE in Standard playing only 14 games.
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May 24, 2016 19:43
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MrSargent posted:What do you guys think of Tyler Eifert this year? I got lucky enough last year to pick him up in Round 11 or 12 last year so obviously got a huge amount of value out of him. Well Eifert's going under the knife today so might want to see how he's recovering in a month or two. e: I think he'll be healthy, and probably end up somewhere on the TE 2-5 rank.
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May 24, 2016 19:46
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MacheteZombie posted:Well Eifert's going under the knife today so might want to see how he's recovering in a month or two. Yah literally a minute after posting that, I saw he was going in for surgery. Hopefully he will be good for the season.
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May 24, 2016 19:54
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MrSargent posted:Yah literally a minute after posting that, I saw he was going in for surgery. Hopefully he will be good for the season. Timeline puts him on track for late pre-season return so barring no setbacks he'll be rocking week 1. I think your analysis of his opportunity is spot on, but I'd keep an eye out on how Cincy starts fitting Tyler Boyd into their scheme. He seems like he could be a solid replacement for Marvin Jones, but then again every draftee has a chance to bust.
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May 24, 2016 20:00
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MacheteZombie posted:Timeline puts him on track for late pre-season return so barring no setbacks he'll be rocking week 1. I think your analysis of his opportunity is spot on, but I'd keep an eye out on how Cincy starts fitting Tyler Boyd into their scheme. He seems like he could be a solid replacement for Marvin Jones, but then again every draftee has a chance to bust. The few reports i've seen have him at risk of not being ready by week 1. This is also Eifert, so he'll most likely be ready week 3 of the regular season.
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May 24, 2016 20:34
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Does Eifert have a history of slow recovery?
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May 24, 2016 20:37
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Personally, I am not touching a TE coming off ankle surgery. Bothersome ankle injuries can easily ruin a dude's season. Besides, Jordan Reed is going to be the only non-Gronk TE worth owning anyway.
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May 24, 2016 23:28
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No love for Olsen?
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May 24, 2016 23:52
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Tiptoes posted:Personally, I am not touching a TE coming off ankle surgery. Bothersome ankle injuries can easily ruin a dude's season. Reed is going to be outscored by at least three non-Gronk TEs. Walker, Olsen, Eifert, random guy we've never heard of, Ertz, Kelce, Green, Jimmy Graham's ghost, etc etc. TE is a shitshow, don't reach for Reed after he's had one healthy, contract year season. Also did I miss something, or just more Rotoworld flavor? quote:Not coincidentally, Cousins' big second-half surge correlated with the emergence of Jordan Reed and the healthy return of DeSean Jackson. With those two back and first-round WR Josh Doctson added to the mix, Cousins has an even better group of weapons to target this year. With all that talent around him, Cousins would make for an upside QB2 pick, but his affinity for the band Creed renders him nearly undraftable.
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May 24, 2016 23:53
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Always take the Creed Guy.
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May 24, 2016 23:59
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RVProfootballer posted:Reed is going to be outscored by at least three non-Gronk TEs. Walker, Olsen, Eifert, random guy we've never heard of, Ertz, Kelce, Green, Jimmy Graham's ghost, etc etc. TE is a shitshow, don't reach for Reed after he's had one healthy, contract year season. Its true, he went down at least 2 rounds in my book when he tweeted that it was a good day when Creed's Greatest Hits was played during workouts.
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May 24, 2016 23:59
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RVProfootballer posted:Reed is going to be outscored by at least three non-Gronk TEs. Walker, Olsen, Eifert, random guy we've never heard of, Ertz, Kelce, Green, Jimmy Graham's ghost, etc etc. TE is a shitshow, don't reach for Reed after he's had one healthy, contract year season. Tiptoes fucked around with this message at 00:08 on May 25, 2016 |
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May 25, 2016 00:06
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Don't draft tight ends. Don't reach for Reed. Don't reach for anyone tbh. Don't reach.
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May 25, 2016 00:07
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This is the year Vernon Davis suddenly blows up and looks like he did four years ago, count on it yo
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May 25, 2016 00:10
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Spoeank posted:Don't draft tight ends. Don't draft. Only use waivers. Only after week 6.
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May 25, 2016 00:17
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Veritek83 posted:Don't draft. p. good advice to be fair And when I say don't reach I mean don't overdraft a player based on what you think he is. If you think Reed is worth a first overall pick go for it, don't think he's worth a third rounder and take him in the second because ~reasons~.
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May 25, 2016 00:39
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Spoeank posted:And when I say don't reach I mean don't overdraft a player based on what you think he is. If you think Reed is worth a first overall pick go for it, don't think he's worth a third rounder and take him in the second because ~reasons~. I think this is really good advice. It's an important distinction between reaching versus having a strong position that someone should go earlier than other people might think.
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May 25, 2016 01:20
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My favorite observed reach last year in my buddy league was TY Hilton in the 2nd because poop.
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May 25, 2016 02:03
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Suave Fedora posted:My favorite observed reach last year in my buddy league was TY Hilton in the 2nd because poop. He was also the favorite reach I saw in a family league I'm in... first receiver off the board, thank Colts homer! CJ Anderson was their next pick, haha. Tiptoes posted:Reach for Reed all day, every day. That Washington offense is going to produce, they're going to do it through the air, and Reed will be the number one option. Gronk is better than him because Gronk is a monster but watch Reed's tape and you'll see none of the other TEs have his chops as a receiver. I absolutely believe this is breakout talent in his prime and will provide a competitive advantage at TE this year even if drafted early. Kirk Cousins is going to turn back into Kirk Cousins, Levine Toilolo and Michael Hoomanawanui are going to put up lines of 65-900-12, and you're going to look silly reaching for Reed.
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May 25, 2016 02:15
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Reed is going to get a concussion and retire this season because he's had a bakers dozen in the last few years. Niles Paul is going to step up in bis absence and be a top 12 TE this year. I'm half kidding.
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May 25, 2016 02:31
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I am definitely not trying to reach for Reed, and I don't think I was suggesting that by saying I would consider him at 6+. In my league, I would probably try for him around 8-9 because I think he will drop due to him not being a big name. I can't expect to get Tyler Eifert in the 12th value this year so I am looking at other options for stable TE play in the later rounds. I actually think Delanie Walker would be a good pick around the same rounds as I as thinking for Reed. MrSargent fucked around with this message at 03:58 on May 25, 2016 |
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May 25, 2016 03:56
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Jordan Reed's ADP in the last two weeks is round 4, Delanie round 6. There are plenty of value TEs though.. ASJ, Ebron, Ertz, Bennett are all double digit round ADPs since May 10. You also have potential deep dive guys like Tye and Walford that are virtually undrafted.
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May 25, 2016 04:00
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Spoeank posted:Jordan Reed's ADP in the last two weeks is round 4, Delanie round 6. There are plenty of value TEs though.. Holy poo poo I thought his ADP was late 5th (he would drop in my league I think as well). Ebron I could see being worth a late round shot with Megatron gone, but he didn't look particularly good last year. ASJ is also a pretty solid late rounder, he just has very little to show in the last two years despite his obvious talent. I really don't like Ertz as he doesn't really see the targets to be consistent and I really don't know what to think of Bennett in New England. I think he will be effective, but he will still be the 3rd option behind Gronk/Edelman, with the added benefit of being in 2-TE sets in the red zone. I just feel like Bennett is the guy that has a really low floor and only a marginal ceiling.
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May 25, 2016 04:24
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MrSargent posted:I really don't know what to think of Bennett in New England. I think he will be effective, but he will still be the 3rd option behind Gronk/Edelman, with the added benefit of being in 2-TE sets in the red zone. I just feel like Bennett is the guy that has a really low floor and only a marginal ceiling. I really don't understand the Bennett hype. Yeah ok Scott Chandler caught a TD that one time, but I'm expecting like back end TE2 numbers from Bennett.
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May 25, 2016 10:59
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RVProfootballer posted:I really don't understand the Bennett hype. Yeah ok Scott Chandler caught a TD that one time, but I'm expecting like back end TE2 numbers from Bennett. He is one of the best all around tight ends in the league. I would not expect him to get Hernandez numbers, but depending on what Belichick decides to do with him I could see a stat line of something like 50/700/6 for this year. Bennett's trouble is that he is also really good in a blocking tight end role, so a lot of times instead of running a route they keep him in as the extra blocker. Probably a TE20ish floor with a TE6ish ceiling?
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May 25, 2016 14:24
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Spoeank posted:Jordan Reed's ADP in the last two weeks is round 4, Delanie round 6. There are plenty of value TEs though.. Ebron and Ertz are guys I'll be grabbing in those late rounds unless they get hyped and their ADP rises. Ertz was phenomenal towards the end of last season and I think Pederson will be running more two tight end sets out there. I don't expect top 5 TE numbers, but I think top 10 isn't hard to imagine. With Ebron, I have a feeling that many of the red zone passing looks that would have gone to Megatron will go to Ebron. Marvin Jones is the big variable here, and I seem to either hear that he's a stud bubbling under the surface waiting for his chance (which is now, in Detroit) or that he's never been able to be a WR1 on a team and he'll just complement Tate. EDIT: Also on reach chat, I have been reaching like a madman on my rookie drafts so far. I got poo poo for going with Booker at 1.08 (I have CJA) over Henry, Perkins, Fuller, Boyd and Carroo. Maybe rightfully so, but FFB is a crapshoot anyway so I'll pick the guy I want and be happy with my pick goddamnit 
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May 25, 2016 16:13
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Chen Kenichi posted:He is one of the best all around tight ends in the league. I would not expect him to get Hernandez numbers, but depending on what Belichick decides to do with him I could see a stat line of something like 50/700/6 for this year. Bennett's trouble is that he is also really good in a blocking tight end role, so a lot of times instead of running a route they keep him in as the extra blocker. Probably a TE20ish floor with a TE6ish ceiling? You think his ceiling is realistically that high, without an injury to Gronk? I guess I just don't see the targets or rz looks being there, but I don't follow the Pats closely either. I also don't know what went down in Chicago, but the fact they let him go, that Bennett didn't get courted by any of the teams legitimately needing a TE, and that he's had one good season that required tons of volume (2014; 2013 was fine too, but certainly not evidence of him being a premier TE) all makes me a bit skeptical.
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May 25, 2016 17:08
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Also sorry for double post, but I'm a little stumped on a dynasty trade. Allen Robinson for Devante Parker and Carlos Hyde. Full PPR, start 2 RB, 2 WR, 3 flex. Receivers right now are Robinson, Evans, Cobb, Matthews, and Corey Coleman, running backs are Ingram, Abdullah, Sims, and Tevin Coleman. Is Parker going to be the high volume Demaryius Thomas-like guy for Gase? Can Parker and Hyde stay healthy? How much regression are we expecting for Robinson, or can his target numbers grow to offset it?
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May 25, 2016 18:07
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While I pray that ARob has no regression, I think scooping up Carlos Hyde and Devante isn't a terrible trade. It will boost your RB set as I think Hyde has the stuff to produce weekly, but I'm not sold on Devante so hopefully someone can give you some optimism there.
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May 25, 2016 18:11
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MacheteZombie posted:While I pray that ARob has no regression, I think scooping up Carlos Hyde and Devante isn't a terrible trade. It will boost your RB set as I think Hyde has the stuff to produce weekly, but I'm not sold on Devante so hopefully someone can give you some optimism there. Well, Parker's pace for the last 6 games, when he was presumably healthy, was 60-1200-8. Small sample size and seems like that might've been due to a few big plays (60 receptions would be super low for that yardage and TDs, no?), but he's got the draft pedigree. I just don't know whether I can trust Parker to start taking over more of the target share from Landry. I have no sense for how Gase's offense is supposed to pan out, except that people say it's good for Parker's value.
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May 25, 2016 18:23
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RVProfootballer posted:Well, Parker's pace for the last 6 games, when he was presumably healthy, was 60-1200-8. Small sample size and seems like that might've been due to a few big plays (60 receptions would be super low for that yardage and TDs, no?), but he's got the draft pedigree. I just don't know whether I can trust Parker to start taking over more of the target share from Landry. I have no sense for how Gase's offense is supposed to pan out, except that people say it's good for Parker's value. Yah I have a lot of doubts if that is sustainable over a season for Parker because that would be 20yds/reception. That would put him right there with Desean Jackson & Mike Wallace's BEST seasons. Not saying he doesn't have the potential but I wouldn't bet on that type of productivity next season.
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May 25, 2016 18:43
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