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RVProfootballer posted:You think his ceiling is realistically that high, without an injury to Gronk? I guess I just don't see the targets or rz looks being there, but I don't follow the Pats closely either. I also don't know what went down in Chicago, but the fact they let him go, that Bennett didn't get courted by any of the teams legitimately needing a TE, and that he's had one good season that required tons of volume (2014; 2013 was fine too, but certainly not evidence of him being a premier TE) all makes me a bit skeptical. I do yes. He got in John Fox's dog house because he wanted more paper and wanted more targets to legitimize it, which fox did not want to cave in to. No one courted him because no one wanted to give the pick that Chicago wanted knowing the situation, and ended up settling on the pick swap just to move him out of the locker room. Dunno how being in NE will affect him, but he is a big target with good receiver skills (as tall, and slightly heavier than Gronk). I do not see him as Hernandez 2.0, but can be a step below that provided the opportunity and is IMO the third/fourth target on the field and safety valve depending on Dion Lewis's presence. A draft location of TE10-15 (which is an area full of questions right now) is about right for now, waiting to see how he gets used in camp to adjust it.
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May 25, 2016 22:11
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I'm bullish on Bennett too. The Pats use two TE formations a lot more often than you'd think just by looking at the reception totals for guys like Chandler/Wright/Hoomanawui. He'll see a lot of red zone usage too as he'll be able to create excellent opportunities for one-on-one mismatches. Even Tim Wright had 6 TDs when he was with the Pats. Bennett should get 8+ so I really like him as bargain TE2 option.
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May 25, 2016 23:49
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Tiptoes posted:I'm bullish on Bennett too. The Pats use two TE formations a lot more often than you'd think just by looking at the reception totals for guys like Chandler/Wright/Hoomanawui. He'll see a lot of red zone usage too as he'll be able to create excellent opportunities for one-on-one mismatches. Even Tim Wright had 6 TDs when he was with the Pats. Bennett should get 8+ so I really like him as bargain TE2 option. I just don't get it. Wright had 250 yards to go along with those 6 touchdowns. Chandler had 250ish yards and 4 touchdowns. Chandler's numbers over the years look pretty similar to Bennett's, except for Bennett's breakout (/outlier) 2014, and was billed as a pass catching tight end that the Pats would use in two tight end sets to create mismatches. Here's a blurb I found about Bennett: quote:Scott Chandler last season was just the latest in a long line of tight ends who were going to recreate what Aaron Hernandez accomplished on the field in 2011. Like all the rest, Chandler failed to live up to that promise, but Bennett could be different. With LaFell gone, the Patriots are lacking big pass catchers outside. Bennett could pick up some of that slack. Oh whoops, that was actually about Chandler in 2015, after Tim Wright failed to do anything and LaFell started on PUP. Anyway, I'm just having fun and am probably wrong, but it's made me lol to see excitement about a real life TE2 and someone that bullish predictions have as a mid range fantasy TE2.
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May 26, 2016 02:03
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The thing about midrange TE2s is they're functionally indiscernible from like the #8 TE in preseason. By the way I'm very glad this thread is picking up steam. Debating fantasy football is my jam.
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May 26, 2016 02:09
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Spoeank posted:By the way I'm very glad this thread is picking up steam. Debating fantasy football is my jam. Hear, hear. I've gotten into dynasty pretty hard the past year, but I'm pretty stoked that redraft league drafts are just about 3 months away. And thanks to whoever recommended the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Has become a mainstay in my too-many fantasy podcast weekly lineup. Good discussion and debate amongst the hosts, and above all entertaining.
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May 26, 2016 02:25
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RVProfootballer posted:I just don't get it. Wright had 250 yards to go along with those 6 touchdowns. Chandler had 250ish yards and 4 touchdowns. Chandler's numbers over the years look pretty similar to Bennett's, except for Bennett's breakout (/outlier) 2014, and was billed as a pass catching tight end that the Pats would use in two tight end sets to create mismatches.
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May 26, 2016 03:26
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His nickname is Black Unicorn. And he gave it to himself. Tell me who else is more worthy of pre-season prognostication.
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May 26, 2016 11:43
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I am going to have a real hard time outdoing my idea last year for selecting draft order in my 12-team re-draft league. I had everyone select a character from N64 Smash Brothers, made a bracket, and then assigned everyone a level 9 computer of their character, turned all items on high, and then let the computers go at it. A little more than half the league was able to attend and we were screaming at the AI characters for a good 45 minutes, rooting and disparaging them much like we would our fantasy players. I am trying to find something that would be equally fair (the fights are so random, it barely matters what character you pick), interactive, with the possibility to participate remotely. If I can't think of anything, I might just go with the same idea since it went so well last year. Anyone have any cool draft order challenges?
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May 26, 2016 16:31
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MrSargent posted:I am going to have a real hard time outdoing my idea last year for selecting draft order in my 12-team re-draft league. I had everyone select a character from N64 Smash Brothers, made a bracket, and then assigned everyone a level 9 computer of their character, turned all items on high, and then let the computers go at it. A little more than half the league was able to attend and we were screaming at the AI characters for a good 45 minutes, rooting and disparaging them much like we would our fantasy players. We did a WWE 2k14 royal rumble to determine our draft order. We did it during our annual Super Bowl party, only about half the league watched while the others continued drinking and watching the half time show (why?!?!), but it was pretty dope. I came out at the 10 spot (10 man league so final spot in the rumble), but was eliminated immediately so I ended up with the I made them all 99s, and copied their moves from famous wrestlers on the roster (we have a friend who is 6'4 so I gave him Big Show, former champions got wrestlers like HHH, the Rock, Batista, etc. I had Dean Ambrose) e: I'd love to make my league to a combine of sorts. A passing drill, 40 dash, maybe 1 or 2 other drills and then average the ranks of each person, sort by rank from there and call it good. Several of the lazier league mates will never go for it though. MacheteZombie fucked around with this message at 16:56 on May 26, 2016 |
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May 26, 2016 16:35
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MacheteZombie posted:We did a WWE 2k14 royal rumble to determine our draft order. We did it during our annual Super Bowl party, only about half the league watched while the others continued drinking and watching the half time show (why?!?!), but it was pretty dope. Make it a fantasy combine. 40 oz chug time, time to pick the highest yardage player from an unsorted list of RBs, add/drop time, time to change the channel to Red Zone. Just start with the chugging.
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May 26, 2016 17:37
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Ben Nevis posted:Make it a fantasy combine. 40 oz chug time, time to pick the highest yardage player from an unsorted list of RBs, add/drop time, time to change the channel to Red Zone. Just start with the chugging. I like this!
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May 26, 2016 17:38
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In looking at the first Beersheet, I wanted to take a deeper look at the top 10 RB's (included Doug Martin at 11) and re-rank them according to my own preference with a bit of reasoning. I will also try to highlight whether I would pick them at their current ADP given the rankings. I feel like RB is the position where I have the most uncertainty so please feel free to pick apart my rankings. I'll do 10-20 later when I have some more time. Beersheet's Rankings - (My Ranking) - Player - Explanation 1. (1) Le'Veon Bell - I agree that Bell is the best fantasy back in the league, but I don' think I would draft him unless AB84, OBJ, and Julio were off the board. I might even consider Hopkins over him. 2. (7) David Johnson - Johnson looked great running last year when CJ2K went down, but I am extremely hesitant to blow a first round pick on a 6-game sample size with 1 huge outlier game against a poo poo run defense. 3. (8) Todd Gurley - Gurley is amazing but it worries me how much he was shut down towards the end of last year. I don't know that getting a rookie QB and still having 0 receiving options of note will help his case much. 4. (3) Devonta Freeman - He probably can't keep up that TD production but ignoring his rushing, he had 73 catches on 97 targets last year which was second only to Danny Woodhead. I think he will have a good year but will also be drafted too high. 5. (2) Adrian Peterson - I'll believe AP is going to fall off when I actually see it happen and probably not before then barring massive injury. I don't like rooting for him at all though. 6. (10) Ezekiel Elliott - It's hard to know what he will do next year but one thing is for sure, he will be drafted way above where he should be. With all of the unknowns, I wouldn't feel comfortable drafting him until the 4th. 7. (5) Jamaal Charles - Still one of the most dynamic backs in the league but injury risk is definitely a concern along with the emergence of West/Ware. 8. (4) Lamar Miller - I'm a huge Lamar Miller fan as he has helped me reach the championship the last 2 years in my league (winning one) despite criminal underuse by Miami. He has been begging for the chance to be a featured back and like the Texans, I am willing to give him that chance. I think getting him in the mid-late 2nd is incredible value. Hell, that's where I drafted him last year (probably a reach) and I think his situation is much better now. 9. (11) Mark Ingram - I had Ingram last year and he had a really solid floor each week, but never did anything flashy. A late 3rd round wouldn't be a bad option, but I might opt to see if he drops to the 4th. 10. (9) LeSean McCoy - Injury kept him out of 4 games last year, but extrapolating his performance to those 4 games, he would have hit 1200yds rushing and easily made the top 5 in standard. The Bills run the ball a lot and I don't see that changing. 11. (6) Doug Martin - Call me crazy but I think I am ready to trust in the Muscle Ham...oh whoops I mean Dougernaut. His game log from last year is really impressive, as is the fact that he finished 3rd in standard with a relatively low TD total compared to the other top RB's. I would probably take him in the 3rd and be happy about it. MrSargent fucked around with this message at 20:35 on May 26, 2016 |
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May 26, 2016 20:33
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Shooting from the hip, here's my list of where I really, really want to value guys in ppr. Call it my "ballsy" list. 1 Le'Veon Bell PIT 2 Adrian Peterson MIN 3 Jamaal Charles KC 4 Todd Gurley LA 5 Mark Ingram NO 6 Lamar Miller HOU 7 David Johnson ARI 8 Eddie Lacy GB 9 Thomas Rawls SEA 10 Dion Lewis NE 11 Doug Martin TB 12 LeSean McCoy BUF 13 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 14 Jonathan Stewart CAR 15 Devonta Freeman ATL 16 Carlos Hyde SF 17 Ryan Mathews PHI 18 Danny Woodhead SD 19 Latavius Murray OAK 20 Matt Forte NYJ 21 Ameer Abdullah DET 22 C.J. Anderson DEN 23 Jeremy Hill CIN 24 Matt Jones WAS 25 Jay Ajayi MIA Did this without looking at MrSargent's rankings or Beersheets. Looks like we agree on a lot though.
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May 26, 2016 23:48
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A lot of people counting out the exotic smashmouth So am I 
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May 26, 2016 23:53
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MrSargent posted:In looking at the first Beersheet, I wanted to take a deeper look at the top 10 RB's (included Doug Martin at 11) and re-rank them according to my own preference with a bit of reasoning. I will also try to highlight whether I would pick them at their current ADP given the rankings. I feel like RB is the position where I have the most uncertainty so please feel free to pick apart my rankings. I'll do 10-20 later when I have some more time. I'm mostly on board with this, but think you're way too low on Ingram. He was on pace for something like 1600 total yards, 65-70 catches, and 8 TDs. TDs are a bit low for a bellcow, but overall those are some great numbers and he put them up for 3/4 of a season. Would've been top 3 RB for a full season in full PPR, wouldn't it?
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May 26, 2016 23:55
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Metapod posted:A lot of people counting out the exotic smashmouth Last year, the guy I avoided no matter how far he fell was Jimmy Graham. This year, it's Murray.
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May 26, 2016 23:57
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Forever_Peace posted:Last year, the guy I avoided no matter how far he fell was Jimmy Graham. This year, it's Murray. Which Murray? e: also, in Ground Control, did you do a quick hit over Latavius during the "younger rb" post? Can't remember and don't have the time to look at the moment.
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May 27, 2016 00:02
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RVProfootballer posted:I'm mostly on board with this, but think you're way too low on Ingram. He was on pace for something like 1600 total yards, 65-70 catches, and 8 TDs. TDs are a bit low for a bellcow, but overall those are some great numbers and he put them up for 3/4 of a season. Would've been top 3 RB for a full season in full PPR, wouldn't it? You are absolutely right that I have Ingram valued too low. He quietly put up amazing totals despite having only 2 games where he scored 17+ points. That is a really consistent level of performance from game to game. Probably should be closer to 6-7 on my list. After looking at FP's rankings, I think I probably have Devonta Freeman ranked way too high, but I think 15 is pretty low, especially in full PPR where he had the 2nd highest receptions for an RB this season. Any particular reason you are so down on Freeman? I know last year was his first good year, but it was really loving good.
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May 27, 2016 00:12
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MrSargent posted:You are absolutely right that I have Ingram valued too low. He quietly put up amazing totals despite having only 2 games where he scored 17+ points. That is a really consistent level of performance from game to game. Probably should be closer to 6-7 on my list. Mostly because I think it'll be a timeshare. It's likely that Coleman is the better runner. I'll be targeting him late in all my drafts. Hopefully the receptions will still give Freeman a solid floor, though. TBH I'm probably biased by Freeman's deficiencies as a runner. quote:Which Murray? DeMarco. I did Latavius right after Freeman, actually! quote:(player comparables through distribution matching)
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May 27, 2016 00:23
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Forever_Peace posted:Mostly because I think it'll be a timeshare. It's likely that Coleman is the better runner. I'll be targeting him late in all my drafts. Hopefully the receptions will still give Freeman a solid floor, though. I guess the question I have is, does it matter that Coleman may be the better runner? As a coach in the NFL, looking at the season Freeman had last year, I can't see a reason not to let that play out. The Falcons offense last year was honestly really weird. Who would have though they would have torn poo poo up in the run game, while really struggling to score in the red zone with anyone other than Freeman. I still don't know how Julio had such a great season when the Falcons passing offense looked like dogshit at times. Definitely a testament to his ability to fight through double coverage to make plays. I really don't have much hope for Sanu drawing coverage off of Julio, but its at least intriguing in the new offense.
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May 27, 2016 04:21
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Coleman is a better runner than Freeman is so hard to compare and I don't get the constant beat of that. Coleman is faster, yes, and has a bit more wiggle in his game than Freeman, but it might as well be two hand touch for how fast Coleman goes down or runs out of bounds compared to Freeman. Plus whenever he had a great run he would fumble. I just rewatched every run for Coleman and Freeman in week one last year and it reinforced this to me. Coleman's 20 yard run in that game was a joke, it was a play action on their own goal line and Philly just ate poo poo hard on it.
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May 27, 2016 04:39
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MrSargent posted:I guess the question I have is, does it matter that Coleman may be the better runner? As a coach in the NFL, looking at the season Freeman had last year, I can't see a reason not to let that play out. The Falcons offense last year was honestly really weird. Who would have though they would have torn poo poo up in the run game, while really struggling to score in the red zone with anyone other than Freeman. I still don't know how Julio had such a great season when the Falcons passing offense looked like dogshit at times. Definitely a testament to his ability to fight through double coverage to make plays. I really don't have much hope for Sanu drawing coverage off of Julio, but its at least intriguing in the new offense. Sanu had a beastly barrage of output either last year or the year before, was it when AJ Green went down? My recollection is hazy but he's got the length to pull coverage.
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May 27, 2016 04:44
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I'm working on a thing about TEs and lol Kyle Rudolph, 2013-2015 ADP: TE 9.67 Per Game Stats TE 24
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May 27, 2016 05:40
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It's almost as if Kyle Rudolph is not good at football and TEs are dumb and bad
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May 27, 2016 07:37
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Dandy Kaiser posted:It's almost as if Kyle Rudolph is not good at football and TEs are dumb and bad Or the Vikings don't pass in the end zone (or anywhere else)
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May 27, 2016 09:16
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Oops, nm
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May 27, 2016 11:42
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MrSargent posted:I am going to have a real hard time outdoing my idea last year for selecting draft order in my 12-team re-draft league. I had everyone select a character from N64 Smash Brothers, made a bracket, and then assigned everyone a level 9 computer of their character, turned all items on high, and then let the computers go at it. A little more than half the league was able to attend and we were screaming at the AI characters for a good 45 minutes, rooting and disparaging them much like we would our fantasy players. Depending on when you're doing your draft, I like weird prop bets on other sporting events. In one of my leagues we do a March Madness bracket every spring to determine draft order. As a lot of us are already getting together to watch those games it adds an extra wrinkle. In another league we're talking about doing Summer Olympic prop bets or medal count predictions. Any excuse to get together and drink and watch sports in which we have little genuine interest.
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May 27, 2016 13:49
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Spoeank posted:Coleman is a better runner than Freeman is so hard to compare and I don't get the constant beat of that. Coleman is faster, yes, and has a bit more wiggle in his game than Freeman, but it might as well be two hand touch for how fast Coleman goes down or runs out of bounds compared to Freeman. Plus whenever he had a great run he would fumble. That’s fair! Here’s the current state of the best evidence I can pull together about their ability as runners (from college stats, college tape evaluations, coachspeak and pro evaluations, measurables, 2015 rushing performance, and season-long head-to-head simulations). Percentage of college total team offense DF: 17.8% TC: 43.2% College YPC DF: 5.9 TC: 7.5 Breakout Age (lower is better) DF: 19.5 TC: 20.4 Drafted (lower is better) DF: 4.03 TC: 3.09 Measurables DF TC (did not participate in combine) Brugler Film Study quote:Freeman quote:Coleman Distribution of Runs     Distribution Comparisons   Season-long simulation comparison   Coachspeak this offseason “The Falcons' higher-ups have been talking up Coleman since the season ended, with coach Dan Quinn calling Coleman-Devonta Freeman a "unique combination" and GM Thomas Dimitroff labeling the duo a "tandem" in the backfield. Per McClure, Freeman "can't afford to let his guard down" with the team still believing in Coleman's big-play ability.” “In terms of him like running in the outside zone, seeing his reads and making his cuts, [Coleman] was really on point,” Quinn said. “That’s why we are so excited because he and Free together make a pretty unique combination.” Bottom Line My personal take on this info is that Freeman is no slouch, is great in the passing game, and is evaluated as the better pass-blocker. But Coleman is probably the better runner (though small sample size etc etc). I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets in the ballpark of 150-200 carries this year (assuming he stays healthy). That’s enough to drop Freeman’s value out of the first round or two for me. Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 14:07 on May 27, 2016 |
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May 27, 2016 14:04
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Dandy Kaiser posted:It's almost as if Kyle Rudolph is not good at football and TEs are dumb and bad Sometimes I think you are a bot that responds only to TE-related keywords Hunter Henry
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May 27, 2016 14:30
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Forever_Peace posted:Bottom Line This was very helpful, FP. You should get into fantasy sports writing. This kind of RB stuff might become the Reception Perception of RBs. Also 200 carries is a ton for Coleman... I don't know if he can hold up to that. 150 is definitely on the table. Dandy Kaiser posted:It's almost as if Kyle Rudolph is not good at football and TEs are dumb and bad Well the title of the article is "On Tyler Eifert's Injury and Why Tight Ends Don't Matter"
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May 27, 2016 16:03
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Cervixalot posted:Sometimes I think you are a bot that responds only to TE-related keywords it's just an expression a robot expression
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May 27, 2016 17:36
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Spoeank posted:This was very helpful, FP. You should get into fantasy sports writing. This kind of RB stuff might become the Reception Perception of RBs. Yeah 200 carries is maybe where I think the soft cap is. Maybe only a 5-15% chance of surpassing that in a season where both backs stay healthy. Atlanta ran the ball a bit over 26 times per game during the regular season last year. Coleman hits 200 carries if he shoulders only about 48% of that rushing load. He hits 175 carries with 42% of that load. He hits 150 with 36% of that load. 35-50% of the ground game seems like a reasonable range for Coleman to me. For reference, the Hill/Gio split was 48%/32% (the rest was mostly the QBs - portion of running back load is close to 55%/39%), with Gio also taking a lot of the passing-down work. Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 17:45 on May 27, 2016 |
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May 27, 2016 17:39
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Forever_Peace posted:Yeah 200 carries is maybe where I think the soft cap is. Maybe only a 5-15% chance of surpassing that in a season where both backs stay healthy. I think the Hill/Gio split is about the most optimistic scenario for Coleman. Freeman is the better pass-catcher, so I don't think Coleman is stealing any passing-down work.
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May 27, 2016 18:01
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drat, solid analysis.
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May 27, 2016 18:39
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Any early keeper thoughts given this setup? League rules: 10 teams. 2 QB, 2RB, 3WR, W/R Flex, TE. .5 PPR. Draft order is decided by cornhole tournament - the winner sets the draft order. Keeper rules: keep 3 players each year in which they were last drafted. UFAs are kept in the 19th. Can have a player be on your roster for 3 seasons, then they go back into the pool.* Or you can trade them and the clock starts for their new team. Possible Keepers: Name - Round - Years of keeper eligibility remaining Julio Jones - 1 - 2 Cam Newton - 2 - 2 LeVeon Bell - 4 - 1 (last year, will not be able to keep next year) Allen Robinson - 7 - 2 Carson Palmer - 9 - 2 Latavius Murray - 19 - 1 Thomas Rawls - 19 - 3* I figure chalk is keeping Jones, Newton, and Bell, and being happy that I arguably have the best players at each major position even if they are expensive picks. I have to keep Newton and Bell - either will definitely be the top overall pick if I don't keep them. Remember, this is a two QB league. Newton's probably the #1 overall player. If I'm really confident in my cornhole skills (and I'm probably in the top 3 of this league, but the #1 guy is a savant) I could keep someone over Julio, counting on winning the tourney and giving myself the first free pick. Decision there is between Rawls and Robinson. Rawls has better value in terms of pick cost. Robinson is the better overall player. This is the one that I keep turning over in my head. Carson Palmer is kind of a weird dark horse pick. The 2 QB rules really make it tough to find good players, and starting Newton and Palmer last year was a big part of my championship (Jones, Bell/Deangelo Williams, Tyler Eifert, and Allen Robinson helped a bit). If Palmer stays healthy and performs, it would be devastating to be rolling out 2 top 5 QBs again. *There is a redshirt rule - since I picked up Rawls last year and never played him, 2015 doesn't count against his eligibility and I would get him for the next 3 seasons Giodo! fucked around with this message at 12:26 on May 28, 2016 |
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May 27, 2016 22:06
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My friend is adamant that David Johnson is RB1 over LVB which I think is p funny but isn't necessarily anything more than a difference of preference, but when he says that he'd take him at 1.1 I'm like 
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May 28, 2016 03:44
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Giodo! posted:Any early keeper thoughts given this setup? Could you clarify the keeper rules? It reads like you can keep 3 from each draft year, but do you mean you can keep 3 total, and the draft year only applies in terms of how long you can keep them?
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May 28, 2016 03:49
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Dandy Kaiser posted:My friend is adamant that David Johnson is RB1 over LVB which I think is p funny but isn't necessarily anything more than a difference of preference, but when he says that he'd take him at 1.1 I'm like Yea, that's a bit crazy for me. Personally i wouldn't be grabbing either at 1.1 this year as Le'veon's PCL injury has me a little worried, but he is still definitely my #1 RB still.
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May 28, 2016 03:51
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Dandy Kaiser posted:My friend is adamant that David Johnson is RB1 over LVB which I think is p funny but isn't necessarily anything more than a difference of preference, but when he says that he'd take him at 1.1 I'm like I would say that thinking David Johnson is better than LVB is way more than a difference of preference and is actually borderline crazy. Johnson has started 6 NFL games and while yes he looked great, his stats are really padded by the monstrosity of a game he had against the worst run defense in the NFL. I think he will be a great RB but don't make the mistake of extrapolating 6 games across an entire season. I would definitely take him in the second, i just think he isn't a sure enough thing for a first rounder.
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May 28, 2016 05:05
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I'm all about taking the guy YOU want in the first above all so I can't blame a dude if he decides that's David Johnson this year. LVB's injuries worry me at this point. I'm leaning Todd Gurley as my RB1. He's a legitimately special talent as a runner and this offseason he gets to work out instead of recover from ACL surgery. I think that'll make a difference for year two. And Fisher is such a conservative coach too so his workload should be pretty consistent.
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May 28, 2016 05:47
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