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Brad Evans has DJ as RB #1 so what I'm saying is stop talking to your friend because he's an idiot fucker.
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May 28, 2016 07:08
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True facts put that poo poo on a Snapple capMrSargent posted:I would say that thinking David Johnson is better than LVB is way more than a difference of preference and is actually borderline crazy. Johnson has started 6 NFL games and while yes he looked great, his stats are really padded by the monstrosity of a game he had against the worst run defense in the NFL. I think he will be a great RB but don't make the mistake of extrapolating 6 games across an entire season. I would definitely take him in the second, i just think he isn't a sure enough thing for a first rounder. I mean, I agree with you wholeheartedly, but I also agree with Tiptoes, so I can't really hate on him for ranking DJ over LVB even if It's Wrong, but I just think that the idea that either of them (it's LVB) is even remotely close to worth being picked over AB/OBJ/Julio (he's not) is loving ludicrous Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 08:02 on May 28, 2016 |
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May 28, 2016 07:56
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Double Post gently caress TEs
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May 28, 2016 08:01
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Chen Kenichi posted:Could you clarify the keeper rules? It reads like you can keep 3 from each draft year, but do you mean you can keep 3 total, and the draft year only applies in terms of how long you can keep them? Sorry, each season you can keep 3 players from your end of season roster. The year only matters in determining how long you can keep them. You basically get to keep a player a maximum of two times after their first year on your team.
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May 28, 2016 12:25
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Giodo! posted:Sorry, each season you can keep 3 players from your end of season roster. The year only matters in determining how long you can keep them. You basically get to keep a player a maximum of two times after their first year on your team. Assuming by winning you will draft last in the first round (no confidence in your cornholing) I would go with your original thought of Julio, Cam, and Bell. You are getting three 1st round talents (roughly picks 1, 6, 8 IMO for 2QB) with your first draft position being 10. You do have a resetting keeper clock and Bell is in your last year of keeping - what are your trade window rules? Once the season is done you lose him immediately? Trading during the season? I would be thinking about a swap of some sort so you can keep that first round talent if you have another owner in a similar position with similar value with the intention to keep who you swap for. Also can you do trades for draft picks? Robinson and Palmer are keeper-quality in their draft rounds that you cannot keep. Maybe trades for better picks with the two of them? This is quite complicated for a true analysis on what is best because there are so many variables involved.
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May 28, 2016 14:31
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MacheteZombie posted:We did a WWE 2k14 royal rumble to determine our draft order. We did it during our annual Super Bowl party, only about half the league watched while the others continued drinking and watching the half time show (why?!?!), but it was pretty dope. Haha we did this exact same thing. 2k14 and everything. I made wrestlers who looked like each member of the league. Super drunken fun.
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May 28, 2016 16:41
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Tiptoes posted:I'm all about taking the guy YOU want in the first above all so I can't blame a dude if he decides that's David Johnson this year. LVB's injuries worry me at this point. I'm leaning Todd Gurley as my RB1. He's a legitimately special talent as a runner and this offseason he gets to work out instead of recover from ACL surgery. I think that'll make a difference for year two. And Fisher is such a conservative coach too so his workload should be pretty consistent. I mean if he is in your league I would encourage him to take HIS GUY if his guy is a huge reach where he's drafting. Otherwise you can absolutely blame him and ridicule him for making an extremely risky first round selection. Dandy Kaiser posted:I mean, I agree with you wholeheartedly, but I also agree with Tiptoes, so I can't really hate on him for ranking DJ over LVB even if It's Wrong, but I just think that the idea that either of them (it's LVB) is even remotely close to worth being picked over AB/OBJ/Julio (he's not) is loving ludicrous Absolutlely agree that I would take any of those 3 WRs before I take a single RB and I might even consider Hopkins.
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May 28, 2016 17:12
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Giodo! posted:Sorry, each season you can keep 3 players from your end of season roster. The year only matters in determining how long you can keep them. You basically get to keep a player a maximum of two times after their first year on your team. The three year clock is super dumb and super exploitable since as you said, it resets with a trade, and the draft round is preserved. Keep your three best guys and then trade them for other top talent with late round pick numbers just before your league's trade deadline.The best players will never become draftable and as time goes bye, many of them will be permanently tied to late round picks.
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May 28, 2016 17:22
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MrSargent posted:I mean if he is in your league I would encourage him to take HIS GUY if his guy is a huge reach where he's drafting. Otherwise you can absolutely blame him and ridicule him for making an extremely risky first round selection.
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May 28, 2016 19:10
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 I'm experimenting with a way to prognosticate the selection of players based on ADP. I'm not sure how useful the method here is going to be, but it provides a pretty graph in the lower right and gives me a chance to talk about it. The basic idea is that I take Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP data and use the mean and standard deviation of each player to establish a probability curve. I then use those curves to determine the probability that a player of each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) will be taken. I do this by determining the probability that each player of a given position won't be taken, multiplying all of them together to get the probability that none of them will be taken, and then subtract that from one to get the probability that at least one will be taken. It's not a perfect system (ideally it would always add up to 100% for each draft spot, in reality it's closer to 90%) but it does provide some interesting results and trends.
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May 28, 2016 19:53
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Tiptoes posted:It's "extremely risky" to you but David Johnson is a top ten pick this year. Taking him in the top five or top three really isn't that much of a reach. Being a top-10 pick based on your ADP does not make you worth that pick. Do we need to remember what happened to CJA last year when he was a top-10 pick? If anyone can explain to me why DJ is actually WORTH a top-10 pick, and not just say that's where his ADP is, I would love to hear it.
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May 28, 2016 20:50
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MrSargent posted:Being a top-10 pick based on your ADP does not make you worth that pick. Do we need to remember what happened to CJA last year when he was a top-10 pick? If anyone can explain to me why DJ is actually WORTH a top-10 pick, and not just say that's where his ADP is, I would love to hear it. It's a valid question. I think his high ADP is a reflection of the uncertainty of the RB position. He is one of the few players to have a high chance of being an actual bellcow in a high tempo offense, and when he was finally given the starting role last year he performed at an extremely high level. He averaged 4.6 YPC over 125 carries and in spite of getting single digit carries for the first 12 Weeks he ended up as the RB7 in standard scoring. A significant portion of that performance was through the air; nearly half of his yards and a third of his touchdowns were receptions. All offseason signs are that he'll have an ever greater role to play in Arizona's offense, and with little in the way of competition there isn't much to hurt his floor of a RB1. Other RBs are just as unproven. Bell was severely injured (again), Gurley had a solid season but who knows about the sophomore slump and the situation in LA, Freeman has Coleman as competition, Peterson is old, Elliott is a rookie, Charles is coming off of injury, and Miller is on a new team. So his first round grade is a combination of high performance, great opportunity, and a lack of elite prospects.
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May 28, 2016 21:33
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Other RBs are just as unproven. Bell was severely injured (again), Gurley had a solid season but who knows about the sophomore slump and the situation in LA, Freeman has Coleman as competition, Peterson is old, Elliott is a rookie, Charles is coming off of injury, and Miller is on a new team. So his first round grade is a combination of high performance, great opportunity, and a lack of elite prospects. All those guys aren't "unproven" in the same sense Johnson is, though, just risky in other ways. We know with basically all of them that their apparent productiveness isn't just a case of small sample size. Personally, I just hope people keep sleeping a bit on Miller. Foster got 20+ touches each game last year when he was healthy, even with Hopkins in mid-breakout, and I expect Miller to fill right in. Does anyone have legit knocks against him besides the nebulous "why didn't Miami give him a full workload" and the more reasonable worry about a new team? With the new team, is there anything specific about schemes in Miami vs Houston to make us worry? I just think he's got about as high a ceiling as anyone and a great floor, given his talent running and receiving, the fact that Houston wants to run, and the lack of competition behind him, and I'm super happy that so far others don't seem to value him quite that highly.
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May 28, 2016 22:15
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:It's a valid question. I think his high ADP is a reflection of the uncertainty of the RB position. He is one of the few players to have a high chance of being an actual bellcow in a high tempo offense, and when he was finally given the starting role last year he performed at an extremely high level. He averaged 4.6 YPC over 125 carries and in spite of getting single digit carries for the first 12 Weeks he ended up as the RB7 in standard scoring. A significant portion of that performance was through the air; nearly half of his yards and a third of his touchdowns were receptions. All offseason signs are that he'll have an ever greater role to play in Arizona's offense, and with little in the way of competition there isn't much to hurt his floor of a RB1. Thank you for this, it certainly helps explain his ADP a bit better and I don't disagree there are a lot of things to love about him. But I think you hot the nail on the head with RB being so uncertain and that is precisely the reason I am not going to spend a high pick on an RB if I can help it. I think Miller/Ingram/Martin are much safer picks at their ADP.
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May 28, 2016 22:16
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RVProfootballer posted:All those guys aren't "unproven" in the same sense Johnson is, though, just risky in other ways. We know with basically all of them that their apparent productiveness isn't just a case of small sample size. I like Miller too (see rankings), but it IS troubling that last year was the worst rushing year of his career. Like, not just in a volume sense, but on a per carry basis too. (See Ground Control post on this). I think people really underestimate how much he's grown as a pass catcher though. Folks see him as a two down back, but he was really solid in the passing game, including his blocking. Also, Houston runs the ball an almost absurd amount. Alfred Blue has had monster fantasy weeks for them, and Alfred Blue is terrible.
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May 28, 2016 22:26
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:
This is really cool by the way. The multiplication rule is doing some work this offseason.
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May 28, 2016 23:38
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Are people generally optimistic or pessimistic for Carlos Hyde this year? Chip Kelly likes to run and Hyde has zero competition. RB1 potential at least, and should have a decent floor if he's healthy, just on volume? FP, did you ever look at him in ground control? I don't remember.
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May 29, 2016 00:51
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Hyde is going to run his rear end off, but there's this massive question at QB. And WR. If San Francisco has nothing but Carlos Hyde as an offense, that makes things very easy for defenders. Add in the general quality of defenses in the NFC West, and that puts potential limits on what Hyde will be able to do. Of course there's also huge upside. If Chip can turn Kaep back into a dynamic read option quarterback who spreads defenses and can take off running and etc. etc. then Hyde could wind up in the top five easily for fantasy RBs. But I think the risk puts him at more of a second to third round pick, behind all of the guys Beer just mentioned. Not far behind them, but I'd take any of Bell, Gurley, AP, Charles, Miller, and Johnson ahead of Hyde, and I'd probably throw in Elliot too, maybe (although I'm much more skeptical of rookies in general these days so maybe not).
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May 29, 2016 01:53
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Leperflesh posted:Hyde is going to run his rear end off, but there's this massive question at QB. And WR. If San Francisco has nothing but Carlos Hyde as an offense, that makes things very easy for defenders. Add in the general quality of defenses in the NFC West, and that puts potential limits on what Hyde will be able to do. I would easily take Ingram, Martin, and McCoy over Hyde as well for most of the reasons you stated. There is upside for sure but I would not take Hyde until 3rd round at the earliest. Also I live in CA and most of my friends are 49ers fans so Hyde will likely get overdrafted due to rampant homerism (don't care if this is a word).
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May 29, 2016 03:08
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Ingram scares me. His injury history is extremely high and if history is any indicator he'll miss around 4 games. I would gladly take Martin over him, and with respect to ADP it's pretty easy to do.
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May 29, 2016 04:02
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Ingram scares me. His injury history is extremely high and if history is any indicator he'll miss around 4 games. I would gladly take Martin over him, and with respect to ADP it's pretty easy to do. I did some research into Ingram's injury history and here is what I found. 2010 - Knee Sprain caused him to miss OTA's as a rookie. Had surgery and missed one game. 2011 - Turf Toe. Underwent surgery and missed last 3 games of season. 2012 - Healthy 2013 - Turf Toe. Missed 5 games in the beginning of the season. 2014 - Fractured Hand. Missed 5 games. 2015 - Shoulder injury, underwent surgery. Missed 5 games. After 2013, I would have been concerned about re-occurring turf toe, but since then he hasn't dealt with that injury. A hand fracture and shoulder injury in the next two years don't really point to him being "injury prone" as those seem to be random injuries that can happen to pretty much any RB. I do understand the hesitation when you see that he has only had one full healthy year, but I think I am willing to look past that since the injuries weren't really serious (like ACL/MCL, etc.) and haven't shown that they are repeating.
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May 29, 2016 18:25
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Maybe he just doesn't drink enough milk and has brittle bones, you ever think about that? Ezekiel 1.1, Lacso 1.2 is the real answer here
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May 29, 2016 18:32
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*lights Dandy Kaiser signal* http://theinscribermag.com/sports/fantasy-football-2016-on-tyler-eiferts-injury-and-why-tight-ends-dont-matter.html
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May 30, 2016 03:27
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Spoeank posted:*lights Dandy Kaiser signal* Great article. Pretty much agree with everything you mentioned and I like ASJ and Ebron in the late rounds.
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May 30, 2016 05:25
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PREACH all about ASJ this year
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May 30, 2016 06:49
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Not buying the ASJ hype. I think Cameron Brate is going to give him real competition at TE and Kenny Bell will take over the slot so ASJ will be sharing the middle of the field with a talented player no matter what. Doubt ASJ will be a fixture of that passing game although I'm sure he'll have some highlight weeks that'll be hard to predict.
Tiptoes fucked around with this message at 09:37 on May 30, 2016 |
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May 30, 2016 09:19
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Tiptoes posted:Not buying the ASJ hype. I think Cameron Brate is going to give him real competition at TE and Kenny Bell will take over the slot so ASJ will be sharing the middle of the field with a talented player no matter what. Doubt ASJ will be a fixture of that passing game although I'm sure he'll have some highlight weeks that'll be hard to predict. They cut Brate last year, then resigned him when ASJ went down. He's not legitimate competition imo. ASJ was on pace for 45-700-8, which is pretty great for a sophomore TE that lost half his rookie year to injury. We also don't actually know what kind of competition Bell is, but a 5th round red shirt rookie is far from a guaranteed talented player, at least in terms of taking a lot of looks from other receivers.
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May 30, 2016 12:32
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RVProfootballer posted:Are people generally optimistic or pessimistic for Carlos Hyde this year? Chip Kelly likes to run and Hyde has zero competition. RB1 potential at least, and should have a decent floor if he's healthy, just on volume? FP, did you ever look at him in ground control? I don't remember. Yeah, here's what I said about Hyde during the "Player Comparables" chapter: quote:Carlos Hyde – Jonathan Stewart, Lamar Miller. More tackles for loss than either, but fights through contested yards like a champ. Success during his rookie contract probably depends a lot on the moves the Niners make this offseason. The whole offense needs to get better or he’s just going to keep running into brick walls. Finished 12th in proportion of runs for 4+ yards (just ahead of the McCoy/Forte/Abdullah tier), 3rd in proportion of runs for 7+ yards (just ahead of Thomas Rawls), and 11th for proportion of runs for 10+ yards (about level with David Johnson and Ryan Mathews). FWIW he also had the fourth-most-improbable (sort of) single game rushing performance of last year. I'm not going to reach for Hyde ("Chip Kelly's Wild Ride 2: The Blaine Train" doesn't sound like a sequel I want to see), but I'm certainly going to take him where I can. Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 18:18 on May 30, 2016 |
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May 30, 2016 18:12
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Hyde vs the Vikings last season in Week 1 was probably the most exciting begin to a season I've ever had.
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May 30, 2016 18:34
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Suave Fedora posted:Hyde vs the Vikings last season in Week 1 was probably the most exciting begin to a season I've ever had. Imagine being there as a Hyde owner and a 49er season ticket holder! Now imagine the rest of the season. ... 
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May 30, 2016 18:35
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Yeah last summer the team was gutted and we were all assuming they were going to be terrible, with the coaching loss and the loss of most of the good players on the defense, etc. And then they came out week 1 absolutely on fire and it was like, WOAH, maybe... maybe somehow the 49ers are gonna be good, anyway??? But no, it was all an illusion. 
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May 30, 2016 18:56
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At least they built a tilt-a-whirl for you this year!
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May 30, 2016 19:40
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Forever_Peace posted:Yeah, here's what I said about Hyde during the "Player Comparables" chapter: Cool, good to know. I was mostly wondering if there were warning signs that he just wasn't a good runner, and his limited health last year and workload rookie year made me not at all sure how much talent he has shown or failed to show. I'm also not a 49ers fan and don't know that I watched any of their games last year, but at least I know I didn't miss anything of worth 
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May 30, 2016 20:45
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RVProfootballer posted:They cut Brate last year, then resigned him when ASJ went down. He's not legitimate competition imo. ASJ was on pace for 45-700-8, which is pretty great for a sophomore TE that lost half his rookie year to injury. We also don't actually know what kind of competition Bell is, but a 5th round red shirt rookie is far from a guaranteed talented player, at least in terms of taking a lot of looks from other receivers. quote:The Buccaneers won’t kick off their first training camp under new coach Dirk Koetter until late July but Koetter can already tell you who most of his starters on offense will be.
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May 30, 2016 23:17
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Coach speak. When ASJ came back to end the season, he ended up with 29 targets over the last 5 weeks, while Brate had 13. Pretty clear who was preferred when ASJ was available. But obviously coach isn't going to say ASJ gets the job back guaranteed when he's healthy, he's going to try to motivate everyone to work hard.
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May 30, 2016 23:48
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ASJ had a single top ten week after coming back at the end of last season. Three of those five games, he was TE20 or worse. His targets would have to increase substantially to make him a predictable or valuable player and I just don't see that coming for him.
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May 31, 2016 00:15
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Tiptoes posted:ASJ had a single top ten week after coming back at the end of last season. Three of those five games, he was TE20 or worse. His targets would have to increase substantially to make him a predictable or valuable player and I just don't see that coming for him. He was coming back from an 11 week injury layoff, I don't think it's crazy to think his targets could increase next year. Even if they dont, the number he got the last five games would've been good for ~93 targets on the year, 10th most among TEs. VJax is a year older and closer to death, a whole bunch of garbage Tampa Bay receivers are going to lose their garbage targets, and ASJ has been with the team another year of growth. He's a great TE flier (what kind of backhanded compliment is that, lol). I'd rather Ebron or some others ahead of him, though. Just depends on who falls. I don't think anyone thinks he's a locked in TE1 or anything.
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May 31, 2016 01:17
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Spoeank posted:Imagine being there as a Hyde owner and a 49er season ticket holder! I can imagine ... as a lifelong Niners fan and fellow Hyde owner 
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May 31, 2016 01:49
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RVProfootballer posted:He was coming back from an 11 week injury layoff, I don't think it's crazy to think his targets could increase next year. Even if they dont, the number he got the last five games would've been good for ~93 targets on the year, 10th most among TEs. VJax is a year older and closer to death, a whole bunch of garbage Tampa Bay receivers are going to lose their garbage targets, and ASJ has been with the team another year of growth. He's a great TE flier (what kind of backhanded compliment is that, lol). I'd rather Ebron or some others ahead of him, though. Just depends on who falls. I don't think anyone thinks he's a locked in TE1 or anything.
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May 31, 2016 02:09
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Tiptoes posted:Fair enough. I'm content to agree to disagree. My gut instinct is just that ASJ could be a trap player this year. Like it's easy to default to the predraft narrative he had hyping him last year and I think the Bucs passing game is going to shake a little differently as people are underrating some of their role players. Think they'll be more of a productive regular football than a predictable fantasy group outside of Evans and the RBs. How can you call someone currently going in the 12th+ round a "trap player". If a late round selection like that puts up even mediocre numbers, it was a good selection. Just curious, what TE's do you like this year?
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May 31, 2016 02:34
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