|
I still miss Grantland.  Doesn't Barnwall have a new one? Is it any good?
|
#
¿
May 1, 2016 05:06
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ Apr 28, 2024 08:36 |
|
|
Anything over half-ppr has got to be Julio/Brown. I don't think I'd even consider anybody else.
|
|
#
¿
May 2, 2016 01:33
|
|
|
Jimmy G is the clear hold. He'll get his shot at starting 4 games this year - if he's good, it'll be too late to get him cheap.
|
|
#
¿
May 4, 2016 12:24
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:Bold RB prediction: Fantasyfootballcalculator mocks have their current ADP in the mid 2nd, as RB8 and RB10 respectively. Though a lot of fantasy pundits have Zeke ranked #2-4, which seems stupid high for a rookie. The one that seems crazy to me right now is DeMarco Murray @ TEN and CJ Anderson going significantly ahead of Dion Lewis, JStew, and Ryan Mathews, sometimes by multiple rounds.
|
|
#
¿
May 13, 2016 13:58
|
|
|
RVProfootballer posted:In 9 games after week 6, he averaged 5.1 ypc, 70 total yards, and half a TD a game. So uh, not a total trainwreck for the latter half of the season, at least. If no PPR, I'd probably take him over Lewis, just barely. No idea how I feel about JStew and Mathews yet. Plenty of time yet for either of them to break before the season starts. If seasons started today, I'd like Mathews more than CJA, but probably take CJA over JStew. I mean... but what is special about the week 6 cutoff here? The thing about looking for promising subsets of games within the larger season as that smaller sample sizes are significantly noisier. CJA only took 85 carries after week 6. 85 carries from Donald Brown breaks 5.1YPC more than 10% of the time. Compound this with the "implicit multiple comparisons" of looking through various subsets to find the one you like, and this doesn't really feel like a meaningful statistic...
|
|
#
¿
May 13, 2016 17:18
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:Yeah fantasy football calculator have their ADPs really close now but ADPs in May are basically useless to August drafting. Sites launching Zeke into top 3-5 RB rankings is going to make it so every little thing has to break right for him to live up to his draft investment. Word. Current trends that I hope continue (for my sake): - Lewis and JStew in the late 4th - Ryan Mathews in the 5th - Forsett in the early 7th - Danny Woodhead in the 8th - Tevin Coleman in the 10th
|
|
#
¿
May 13, 2016 17:24
|
|
|
I'm just bitter because I didn't listen to Spoeank et al and took CJA in the 1st. Won the league anyways but it was tough going there for a while.
|
|
#
¿
May 13, 2016 17:55
|
|
|
Take WRs early if it's a dynasty league.
|
|
#
¿
May 13, 2016 20:06
|
|
|
Something I'm working on for GroundControl: ballparking the greatest single-game rushing performances of the decade so far. I'm defining it as the game that would have been the least probable for a league-average back to pull off (sort of). I'll leave the details for later, but here's the log of yards gained on rushing attempts for the current best game as a teaser: -1 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 11 12 17 18 18 18 A run (by a running back) only gains 5 yards or more about a quarter of the time in the NFL. This person had 20 5+ yard runs in a single game. edit: I think this one is my favorite though: 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 10 11 11 12 12 14 28 37 Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 23:51 on May 13, 2016 |
|
#
¿
May 13, 2016 23:45
|
|
|
VietCampo posted:Just as a guess, i'm thinking Moreno, i vaguely remember him doing 3 18 yard runs in OT once. Yep. For reference, here's what a sort of "middle of the road" game might look like, from Eddie Lacy last year (week 5): -1 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 8
|
|
#
¿
May 14, 2016 00:10
|
|
|
Metapod posted:If decade is being used as a nebulous term my guess is cj2k Yeah 2010s. Charles had one of the top 5 games in both 2010 and 2012. CJ2K is #2 in 2011 with this from week 12: -5 -3 -3 0 0 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 8 9 9 10 12 13 15 20 24 25 34
|
|
#
¿
May 14, 2016 00:19
|
|
|
The worst game since 2010 is harder to estimate, but it really might be this one from Joique Bell last year (week 3): -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 3 Ouch. edit: although a 31-year-old Chester Taylor did this in 2010: -2 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 2 4 5 Followed four weeks later with this: -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 4 5
|
|
#
¿
May 14, 2016 01:15
|
|
|
MacheteZombie posted:Is that Joique Bell line a full game with no injury? Yup. Plus a reception for a two yard loss. But hey Chris Harris loves the guy woohoo fantasy sleeper status!
|
|
#
¿
May 14, 2016 01:30
|
|
|
First four rounds were stellar, which is the most important thing. Docston/Ebron/Agholor could sting later, but you're still looking fairly alright. You need upside RBs now. Look for any of the following (assuming top 30 are gone): McKinnon, Ryan Mathews, JStew, Coleman, Arian Foster, Jordan Howard, Prosise, Kenyan Drake, Charcandrick West, Ivory, Forsett, Cameron Artis-Payne, Alfred Morris, Lorenzo Taliaferro, LeGarrette Blount, Zach Zenner, probably in that order for me. I don't trust Ebron, but you can't afford to spend mid-round capital on another TE. Try to nab Charles Clay or Clive Walford in the late rounds. Don't take a DST or K until the end of the draft, unless you have bizzaro scoring. DSTs are volatile from season to season, and Ks are all the same and don't really matter. Rankings start to mean less the later you go. Don't be afraid to start "reaching" to just take the guy you like (after 10 rounds, "reaching" isn't even really a thing - just take the guy you like most that you think won't be there next round).
|
|
#
¿
May 14, 2016 14:00
|
|
|
Sure thing! Not saying you didn't get good value for Doctson/Agholor. Given the lack of RBs, I would have just probably preferred any of Latavius/Karlos Williams/Abdullah/Hill if they were still around. But yeah both got plenty of upside. I wouldn't have particularly high hopes for RB passing work in Oakland considering their criminal underuse of Reece and Helu. Josh Robinson is like 6th on the depth chart right now and might not see the field. Don't know anything about Lasco. Nice job getting McKinnon. My nearest-neighbor algorithm on run distributions liked him a lot.
|
|
#
¿
May 14, 2016 15:16
|
|
|
Holy smokes that's a lot of risk. On their own, the White, Perriman, and Doctson moves are all potentially individually justifiable for a gambler, but doing all three with nearly the entirety of early draft capital is ballsy as hell. Two years from now you could be just as easily dead last as a perennial winner. But hey, I guess that's better than being stuck in neutral forever! Interested in hearing why you took Smelter over Coleman, Wright, or Bennett. That's the only really strange one in the mid-rounds for me - I really like the Lewis/Prosise/McKinnon/Ben picks. Gronk Wears Short Shorts crushed it, despite spending like ten picks on shameless Pats homerism and a 3rd on Freeman over Miller/TY/Kelvin.
|
|
#
¿
May 14, 2016 17:58
|
|
|
Ben Nevis posted:When can I drop CJ Fiedorowicz? I dropped him at the end of least season but man it really stung. I miss you CFiz.
|
|
#
¿
May 16, 2016 20:57
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:The only reason to listen to The Audible is Sigmund Bloom (but what a reason) Um actually Jene Bramel is the gem on the Audible. Still want somebody to make a Doc B edit every week so I can just skip the rest of it.
|
|
#
¿
May 19, 2016 17:33
|
|
|
I just discovered Eagle Eye in the Sky and I think it might be one of my favorites. Just listened to an interview with Tony Dungy on the history and theory of the Tampa 2 defense - not the kind of access you'd see on other pods.
|
|
#
¿
May 22, 2016 02:31
|
|
|
Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Super fun kicker chat. I noticed that Gostkowski was on something like 30%+ of league-leading teams on yahoo last year (it's their "fantasy MVP" list, which seems to be deleted every year in anticipation of the next). He was like in the top-15 most owned players by champtionship teams or something. Format looks slick by the way! I like it.
|
|
#
¿
May 23, 2016 03:13
|
|
|
Always take the Creed Guy.
|
|
#
¿
May 24, 2016 23:59
|
|
|
Shooting from the hip, here's my list of where I really, really want to value guys in ppr. Call it my "ballsy" list. 1 Le'Veon Bell PIT 2 Adrian Peterson MIN 3 Jamaal Charles KC 4 Todd Gurley LA 5 Mark Ingram NO 6 Lamar Miller HOU 7 David Johnson ARI 8 Eddie Lacy GB 9 Thomas Rawls SEA 10 Dion Lewis NE 11 Doug Martin TB 12 LeSean McCoy BUF 13 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 14 Jonathan Stewart CAR 15 Devonta Freeman ATL 16 Carlos Hyde SF 17 Ryan Mathews PHI 18 Danny Woodhead SD 19 Latavius Murray OAK 20 Matt Forte NYJ 21 Ameer Abdullah DET 22 C.J. Anderson DEN 23 Jeremy Hill CIN 24 Matt Jones WAS 25 Jay Ajayi MIA Did this without looking at MrSargent's rankings or Beersheets. Looks like we agree on a lot though.
|
|
#
¿
May 26, 2016 23:48
|
|
|
Metapod posted:A lot of people counting out the exotic smashmouth Last year, the guy I avoided no matter how far he fell was Jimmy Graham. This year, it's Murray.
|
|
#
¿
May 26, 2016 23:57
|
|
|
MrSargent posted:You are absolutely right that I have Ingram valued too low. He quietly put up amazing totals despite having only 2 games where he scored 17+ points. That is a really consistent level of performance from game to game. Probably should be closer to 6-7 on my list. Mostly because I think it'll be a timeshare. It's likely that Coleman is the better runner. I'll be targeting him late in all my drafts. Hopefully the receptions will still give Freeman a solid floor, though. TBH I'm probably biased by Freeman's deficiencies as a runner. quote:Which Murray? DeMarco. I did Latavius right after Freeman, actually! quote:(player comparables through distribution matching)
|
|
#
¿
May 27, 2016 00:23
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:Coleman is a better runner than Freeman is so hard to compare and I don't get the constant beat of that. Coleman is faster, yes, and has a bit more wiggle in his game than Freeman, but it might as well be two hand touch for how fast Coleman goes down or runs out of bounds compared to Freeman. Plus whenever he had a great run he would fumble. That’s fair! Here’s the current state of the best evidence I can pull together about their ability as runners (from college stats, college tape evaluations, coachspeak and pro evaluations, measurables, 2015 rushing performance, and season-long head-to-head simulations). Percentage of college total team offense DF: 17.8% TC: 43.2% College YPC DF: 5.9 TC: 7.5 Breakout Age (lower is better) DF: 19.5 TC: 20.4 Drafted (lower is better) DF: 4.03 TC: 3.09 Measurables DF TC (did not participate in combine) Brugler Film Study quote:Freeman quote:Coleman Distribution of Runs     Distribution Comparisons   Season-long simulation comparison   Coachspeak this offseason “The Falcons' higher-ups have been talking up Coleman since the season ended, with coach Dan Quinn calling Coleman-Devonta Freeman a "unique combination" and GM Thomas Dimitroff labeling the duo a "tandem" in the backfield. Per McClure, Freeman "can't afford to let his guard down" with the team still believing in Coleman's big-play ability.” “In terms of him like running in the outside zone, seeing his reads and making his cuts, [Coleman] was really on point,” Quinn said. “That’s why we are so excited because he and Free together make a pretty unique combination.” Bottom Line My personal take on this info is that Freeman is no slouch, is great in the passing game, and is evaluated as the better pass-blocker. But Coleman is probably the better runner (though small sample size etc etc). I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets in the ballpark of 150-200 carries this year (assuming he stays healthy). That’s enough to drop Freeman’s value out of the first round or two for me. Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 14:07 on May 27, 2016 |
|
#
¿
May 27, 2016 14:04
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:This was very helpful, FP. You should get into fantasy sports writing. This kind of RB stuff might become the Reception Perception of RBs. Yeah 200 carries is maybe where I think the soft cap is. Maybe only a 5-15% chance of surpassing that in a season where both backs stay healthy. Atlanta ran the ball a bit over 26 times per game during the regular season last year. Coleman hits 200 carries if he shoulders only about 48% of that rushing load. He hits 175 carries with 42% of that load. He hits 150 with 36% of that load. 35-50% of the ground game seems like a reasonable range for Coleman to me. For reference, the Hill/Gio split was 48%/32% (the rest was mostly the QBs - portion of running back load is close to 55%/39%), with Gio also taking a lot of the passing-down work. Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 17:45 on May 27, 2016 |
|
#
¿
May 27, 2016 17:39
|
|
|
RVProfootballer posted:All those guys aren't "unproven" in the same sense Johnson is, though, just risky in other ways. We know with basically all of them that their apparent productiveness isn't just a case of small sample size. I like Miller too (see rankings), but it IS troubling that last year was the worst rushing year of his career. Like, not just in a volume sense, but on a per carry basis too. (See Ground Control post on this). I think people really underestimate how much he's grown as a pass catcher though. Folks see him as a two down back, but he was really solid in the passing game, including his blocking. Also, Houston runs the ball an almost absurd amount. Alfred Blue has had monster fantasy weeks for them, and Alfred Blue is terrible.
|
|
#
¿
May 28, 2016 22:26
|
|
|
Beer4TheBeerGod posted:
This is really cool by the way. The multiplication rule is doing some work this offseason.
|
|
#
¿
May 28, 2016 23:38
|
|
|
RVProfootballer posted:Are people generally optimistic or pessimistic for Carlos Hyde this year? Chip Kelly likes to run and Hyde has zero competition. RB1 potential at least, and should have a decent floor if he's healthy, just on volume? FP, did you ever look at him in ground control? I don't remember. Yeah, here's what I said about Hyde during the "Player Comparables" chapter: quote:Carlos Hyde – Jonathan Stewart, Lamar Miller. More tackles for loss than either, but fights through contested yards like a champ. Success during his rookie contract probably depends a lot on the moves the Niners make this offseason. The whole offense needs to get better or he’s just going to keep running into brick walls. Finished 12th in proportion of runs for 4+ yards (just ahead of the McCoy/Forte/Abdullah tier), 3rd in proportion of runs for 7+ yards (just ahead of Thomas Rawls), and 11th for proportion of runs for 10+ yards (about level with David Johnson and Ryan Mathews). FWIW he also had the fourth-most-improbable (sort of) single game rushing performance of last year. I'm not going to reach for Hyde ("Chip Kelly's Wild Ride 2: The Blaine Train" doesn't sound like a sequel I want to see), but I'm certainly going to take him where I can. Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 18:18 on May 30, 2016 |
|
#
¿
May 30, 2016 18:12
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:Anywho, I'm about to write an article that's basically FF for newbies (the site I write for is primarily a lifestyle site). I'm thinking: - don't start Thursday dudes in your flex - know injury designations - draft your starters before your bench. - after drafting your starters, err on upside - use aggregates (projections or rankings)
|
|
#
¿
Jun 2, 2016 20:52
|
|
|
Yeah, last year among all players, Landry, Lockett, and Abdullah were 2, 4, and 5 in all-purpose yards, respectively. The fact that Landry got more of those yards from scrimmage makes him more valuable, not less.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 4, 2016 02:26
|
|
|
Why is Cobb going so late? Didn't he play nearly all of last year with a shoulder injury?
|
|
#
¿
Jun 7, 2016 12:13
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:I'm putting together a piece called "ADPs That Make No Sense" and Dion Lewis is the reason why. Total steal. Other folks to look at in ppr that seem low: Danny Woodhead (5th/6th), Breshad Perriman (11th/12th), Matt Ryan (11th-13th), Kendall Wright (13th). In the early and mid rounds I'll be scooping up Lewis/Cobb/Ingram/Rawls/Mathews/Tevin Coleman wherever I can. Really like the mid-round RBs this year. If it stays this way, a ppr draft from the 4-6 of something like Nuke/Alshon/Rawls/Lewis/Woodhead/Brady/Abdullah/Moncrief seems within the realm of possibility.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 7, 2016 13:48
|
|
|
Amergin posted:Not to mention from week 13 on, James White seemed to be a pretty serviceable pass-catching back for them. White was targeted 16 times in the AFC championship and only caught five of them. Lewis is not only a far better runner, but is probably the better passing threat too.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 7, 2016 16:38
|
|
|
RVProfootballer posted:You can't draft a Brady that will miss a quarter of the season in the sixth round, come on now. Also, without looking at ADP so I could be totally wrong, I'd be super surprised if you could get Moncrief that late. Yeah you're right, poking around, it looks like Brady's chances of getting the suspension deferred is lower than I thought. FFC has Moncrief at 7.09 with a SD of 10 spots in 12-team ppr. Mid-8th would be pretty lucky (like less than a quarter of the time) but is possible. quote:Nuk is a 1st-2nd rounder, Alshon and Rawls are 2nd-3rd. I seriously doubt any of those 3 are available in the 4th, unless the other owners area bunch of potatoes. Sorry, I was proposing drafting from the 4-6 spot in a 12-team snake draft. Nuk would be the 1st, Alshon 2nd, Rawls 3rd.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 7, 2016 17:12
|
|
|
Cervixalot posted:The Moncrief hype is off the charts this year, and his ADP is likely only going to rise between now and the beginning of the season, barring a setback on his turf toe. Woah.  You're not wrong.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 7, 2016 17:43
|
|
|
Dandy Kaiser posted:In RotoViz's most recent email, they said they were all in on Dion Lewis RotoViz needs to shhhhhh. My guy needs to stay in the mid 4th until early August.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 9, 2016 12:36
|
|
|
Kerwynn Williams and Mike Gillislee keep popping up in various analyses I'm doing for ground control as possible "good runners". Both look to be pretty buried in depth charts, but are going to be free agents soon. What can folks tell me about them? Anybody watch them in college? Also, I'm starting to not trust Matt Jones. Which is weird, because I liked his tape last year. Might be possible that his tape is better than his production. He goes down kicking and screaming, but still goes down nonetheless. Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 15:28 on Jun 10, 2016 |
|
#
¿
Jun 10, 2016 14:07
|
|
|
Benne posted:Kerwynn Williams got a chance when the Cardinals had a billion RB injuries a couple years ago and did nothing of note. There's a reason Arizona drafted David Johnson and signed a 50-year-old Chris Johnson to play ahead of him. As far as I can see, he only has three games with more than ten carries, all in 2014: 19 for 100 (long of 16), 15 for 75 (long 19), and 17 for 67 (long 11). That's certainly not terrible! I like DJ better, of course, but a lot of my metrics seen to like the guy, so I figured I'd ask what folks know about him.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 10, 2016 20:23
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ Apr 28, 2024 08:36 |
|
|
Agholor being investigated for rape.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 10, 2016 21:26
|
|