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MrSargent posted:Goddamnit. This offseason was relatively decent until now in terms of players being shitlords. Winston and Roethlisberger are on my blacklist. I don't draft them because I don't want to root for them. That's about it, though. AP, Vick, and even Rice all took positive steps to admit wrongdoing and work to redeem themselves. Winston and Ben, on the other hand, are unrepentant shitlords. Weed guys own and should be drafted at every opportunity, because gently caress Goodell.
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Jun 10, 2016 23:48
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MacheteZombie posted:Martavis Bryant I actually traded away Martavis during his breakout year in one goon dynasty league, then traded for Sammie Coates in another. I wish I still had Martavis. I didn't know he was the weed guy.  I also desperately tried to land Blackmon a few years back. Nobody would sell him to me. Thank god. Sometimes I look back at the moves I make, and wonder how the hell my teams manage to stay competitive.
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Jun 11, 2016 00:01
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Forever_Peace posted:Sometimes I look back at the moves I make, and wonder how the hell my teams manage to stay competitive. ROFL this was the Martavis trade back in 2014, in half ppr: Kettle gives Markus Wheaton, CJ Spiller, and a rookie/FA 1st. F_P gives Martavis Bryant, CJ?K, Charles Sims, and a rookie/FA 5th. The pick became DeVante Parker, who I traded away along with Melvin Gordon and a rookie/FA 2nd.... for Megatron.  That might be my worst string of moves yet.
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Jun 11, 2016 00:08
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jabro posted:lol just saying gently caress off that's how I was raised is not positive steps. Probably not the thread for this, but even putting cultural considerations aside, AP voluntarily cooperated with a grand jury, pled "no contest" to the reckless assault charge, literally said "I take full responsibility for my actions", and went to therapy. This is pretty different from the denial and retaliatory character assassinations that Ben and Winston undertook against their accusers. quote:Rookie TE Tyler Higbee probably committed a hate crime and gave a dude a brain hemorrhage so maybe add him to the list? Well there goes my 2nd-round strategy this year. (joking aside that's awful)
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Jun 11, 2016 01:20
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I totally understand not being preachy about it, but I'm not sure I follow what's actually hypocritical about trying to arbitrate which things we feel comfortable finding acceptable? That seems like what all of ethics is. Being a fan or running a fantasy team requires a degree of participation - it's normal for people to feel an inclination to make sure that their participation is consistent with their values. Like, I'm not unaware of the concussion crisis (I am actually a neuroscientist specializing in mental illness and have taught units on CTE to undergraduates). I personally would support changing the NFL to 7 on 7s, or failing that, eliminating kickoffs and contact drills for linemen and contact practices in college and establishing a liability for the league to cover all health expenses for retirees etc. I would vote against building stadiums with public funds, support carefully controlling opioid prescriptions for players etc. But I don't have control over most of those things. All I can do is choose how to control any participation. I wouldn't let any kid of mine play tackle football, I refuse to attend college games, and I use my platform to make sure my students understand CTE. And yes, I have a "no rapists" policy for my fantasy drafts. Deciding that you personally have a different approach, perhaps because you understand that you aren't complicit in the behavior of your fantasy players and can operate at a distance, that's totally fine. But arguing that the only consistent stance is not to consider the nature of your participation at all seems pretty extreme to me Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 17:21 on Jun 11, 2016 |
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Jun 11, 2016 12:34
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Dandy Kaiser posted:We are all bad and Hobbes was right Tough but fair. MrSargent posted:This I can agree with. It's not unlikely that one of Romo in the 10th, Tyrod or Ryan in the 11th, or Stafford in the 12th will finish top-10 this year. They have all finished top-10 already at least once in the past three seasons on a per-game basis. Good loving luck figuring out who it'll be this year. Romo has vs. NYG - WAS - CHI - SF to start the year, so I might target that then stream from there. Ryan is TB - OAK - NO, two of which are dome games (so if he sucks for that stretch, I'm out). For mid-round targets, I'd be tempted if Brees falls to the early 7th. He's getting older, but he was still QB4 last year on a per-game basis. Nabbing him in the Delanie Walker / Blake Bortles area of the draft seems like a steal.
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Jun 11, 2016 19:22
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Chen Kenichi posted:The QB pool for a 12 team league is deep enough where late round QB drafting is more than acceptable. The gap between QB6 and QB12 is almost nothing. Waiting until (way) later you can still get someone like Dalton, Eli, Carr, even Flacco - IMO all but Dalton have the arrow pointing up for this year in terms of production, and Dalton is a wait-and-see but has decent history. Flacco has never once in his 8-year career finished among the top half of starting QBs in per-game fantasy points. Don't draft Flacco.
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Jun 11, 2016 19:32
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crondaily posted:Thoughts on Shady this year? Seems fairly priced. Hard to argue with taking him at his current adp, but I wouldn't go higher. Should also mention that Karlos Williams looks really good in Ground Control. It's Shady's backfield, but I'd be happy with Karlos as a dynasty asset, particularly in standard.
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Jun 12, 2016 15:45
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Veritek83 posted:This assumes that Bill knows what a smile is. 10$ says BB was smiling like an idiot when he took Navy Longsnapper Joe Cardona in the 6th last year. The two things Bill loves more than anything else in the world are special teams play and Navy Football.
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Jun 14, 2016 13:53
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Spoeank posted:Hi fellas the last 30 posts is why I love you all. You're not morons and can actually debate this poo poo intelligently. I argued vociferously that OBJ wasn't a good first round pick last year.
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Jun 15, 2016 23:34
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Sataere posted:The reason is historical evidence. Top flight production in the NFL never lasts more than three years. Eventually, there is a decline. The following two things are both true: - The WR1 is likely to regress, and unlikely to repeat. - The previous WR1 is often the best guess at who is likely to be the next WR1 anyways.
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Jun 17, 2016 20:11
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Suave Fedora posted:Why are we doing this T*m Br*dy thing? Is it like saying Voldemort's name or something? Quote my post and read the text. Tom Brady Ted Cruz
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Jun 17, 2016 21:28
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I agree with pretty much all of that, but man underestimate Palmer2Fitz at your own risk. If Tyler Lockett didn't have little baby hands I'd take him as my WR2. Dude owns, but is literally playing with kid gloves on.
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Jun 29, 2016 19:42
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From a month agoForever_Peace posted:Kerwynn Williams and Mike Gillislee keep popping up in various analyses I'm doing for ground control as possible "good runners". Both look to be pretty buried in depth charts, but are going to be free agents soon. What can folks tell me about them? Anybody watch them in college? Mike Gillislee update: Karlos Williams is Fat and Suspended, and rookie Jonathan Williams got arrested for drunk driving yesterday. My little Ground Control sleeper is now #2 on the depth chart with the team that had more rushing yards than any other team in the league last year. edit: oh, and McCoy has a "minor ankle issue", so Gillislee could be getting first-team reps in camp and preseason. Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 19:19 on Jul 15, 2016 |
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Jul 15, 2016 19:12
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Beer I'm sad you're not using our "pooled variance" tier calculations anymore. Why the switch back to "only the top-of-the-tier variance matter"?
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Jul 18, 2016 16:42
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I think I screwed that up, because I do recall pooled variance being superior. Remind me how we approached that again? I think I might have copied stuff over from an older sheet. Oh, yeah I can't actually see where your tiers come from, but your description says you are grouping players within 1 SD of the mean projection for the player at the top of the tier. What we did last year after a bit of back and forth is still saved on google drive here. It takes a "pooled variance" approach with a moving tier average. Essentially, it adds players to a tier (in order) until either A) the player to add is a specified distance from the weighted tier mean (in units of the pooled variance for the whole tier), or B) the player to add would lower the mean of the tier enough to move the player at the top of the tier a specified distance from the weighted tier mean (also in units of the pooled variance for the whole tier). The columns highlighted in yellow are the columns of formulas I added to the beersheet backend you provided last year (you could probably consolidate this considerably, but I opted to make it easy to follow rather than concise). Most of the columns won't work until they are all filled in. The "specified distance" for cutoffs is set in two places in the formula in column A. Currently, it uses a cutoff of 2/3 of a standard deviation. This is approximately equal to a 50% confidence interval for a normally distributed variable. To make this 1 SD instead of 2/3 SD, just delete the two instances of "2/3" in that column.
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Jul 19, 2016 03:03
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Finally got around to doing a more complete cluster analysis of running backs over in GroundControl. Some fantasy-relevant notes: - Despite the awesome season by David Johnson, it was Gurley that got the better comparables (he was grouped with the other franchise backs, like AP and Charles). - Matt Jones got grouped with TRich and Alfred Blue. - Langford was comped with the likes of Bilal Powell instead of Forte. - Yeldon was comped with SJax, and Melvin Gordon with Tre Mason. - Buck Allen is a big weirdo that doesn't really run like anybody else in the database. - Miller and Mathews were lumped right next to JStew and Ivory. - Forte and Foster are still the two most closely matched players in the database (over the past six years). - Thomas Rawls might be really loving good. - Latavius really looks like a McFadden clone. - Duke and Draughn are close to being in the Vereen/Woodhead mold of passing-down backs, but Benny Cunningham is already there.
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Jul 19, 2016 16:33
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Well that worked out super easy Forever_Peace. Thanks for your help again; the new method has been incorporated and looks much better. No problem. Glad it worked out!
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Jul 20, 2016 04:28
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Only in 1 redraft league this year (plus the two goon dynasty leagues), kind of tempted to add another redraft. What would the goon interest be in a 12-team half-ppr superflex and return-yard deep-bench auction league with no kickers and no defenses and a FAAB budget?
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Aug 2, 2016 12:45
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Sky is blue. Water is wet. Cecil Lammey is gushing about Cody Latimer during the off-season.
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Aug 3, 2016 21:11
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Ty1990 posted:For a full PPR league, what is everybody's opinions on zero running back? Who would realistically be acceptable as your RB1 if you go that route? A guy like Frank Gore? Been pretty hard for me to pass up JCharles in the 2nd or Lacy/Ingram/McCoy in the 3rd in ppr. But if you are legit determined to go WR-WR-WR, Dion Lewis is your 4th round pick regardless of where you are drafting in it. If he's taken.... I dunno, Danny Woodhead?
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Aug 4, 2016 01:27
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Tiptoes posted:Alfred Morris couldn't beat out Matt Jones for goal line touches and scored a singled time in the red zone last year but the Cowboys are going to use him over Zeke Elliott? They'll telegraph "Run" to the defense while doing it too. Sure they'll be good at running the ball but you don't make things simpler for the defense when trying to score. Zeke is too good to take out of the game at the goal line. I just can't see that happening. We have no idea if Zeke is good. But here's a fun stat: since Alf was drafted in 2012, he is tied for 3rd in touchdowns from within the five (18). Maybe four high-volume years was enough to grind him down, but it's also possible that last year was just a down year, and that he's still a very excellent goal-line back.
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Aug 4, 2016 04:18
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Olympics starts tomorrow. Pick a sport, give everybody a random team, and go by final placements. Short Track Cycling and Synchronized swimming are both suitably ridiculous to watch.
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Aug 5, 2016 12:42
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Benne posted:Who was that one guy who kept scrubbing Cody Latimer's balls every chance he got, I want to know how many people wasted a draft pick because of him. Cecil Lammey https://twitter.com/cecillammey/status/632386652426498048 "The Denver Broncos could have found a star in the second round of the 2014 NFL draft. ". "Latimer is bigger, more versatile and a better blocker than Caldwell. The rookie has the makings of a star in this league. The Broncos won’t be able to hold this talent down for long... Simply put—Latimer is the future for the Broncos, and the future is now." A few days ago: https://twitter.com/CecilLammey/status/760252747367145472
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Aug 6, 2016 14:07
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Spoeank posted:
You of all people should know we've already moved on to future hall of famer Vance McDonald, duh. Also pour one out for the CJ Fiedorowicz dream while you're at it.
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Aug 6, 2016 18:22
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Papes posted:Crockett Gilmore, that is all Isn't he hurt? Am I imagining things?
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Aug 6, 2016 18:49
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Spoeank posted:I did the research for an article and over the last five years, I think it was 4.5 of the top 12 TEs were drafted in the top 7 and 4.5 were outside of the top 15 by ADP. Uhhhhh that actually sounds like a really high hit rate. 5 of 7 of early TEa end as TE1? There's no way running back is that high.
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Aug 6, 2016 20:44
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Spoeank posted:There's also an equally high rate of free TEs being TE1s. True, but there's like 30 candidates for random waiver wire dudes you'd have to be able to tell apart. If you wait on a TE, and a couple guys flash early in the season, we're left trying to separate the wheat from the chaff. I certainly don't feel confident in my ability to distinguish the Larry Donnells (who fizzled) from the Gary Barnidges (who didn't). More, you almost always miss out on the big games that would make guys WW candidates in the first place. Ultimately what matters is the weekly marginal value at the position slot over other starters during the weeks that you would reasonably be starting that player. It's good to know that there are WW gems at TE, but it sounds like the chances of finding and starting points is really stacked at the top of the draft. Honestly I would have been happy to have taken Olsen or Kelce at value last year. OF course, contrary to my actual argument here, I "drafted" Scott Chandler, played him week 1 for 1 catch for 1 yard and a touchdown, then picked up Reed and won the league. But still.
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Aug 6, 2016 21:10
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Teemu Pokemon posted:That statement is also disingenuous, because TE1-12 are technically TE1s in a 12 team league, meanwhile, the difference between TE4/5 and TE8/9 is usually like less than 1.5 PPG and the difference between TE8/9 and TE16 is like another 1.5 PPG, so you're paying a premium for a FGs worth of points and taking a pretty big chance that the guy you're taking is going to get you the exact same or less PPG than a guy that goes undrafted. So unless you have Gronk or one of the two/three non-Gronk TEs that are difference makers, having a "TE1" is an entirely meaningless title and your TE is probably interchangeable with 3 guys from the WW you could've had instead You guys keep talking like this is only ever true of TEs. All positions have random waiver wire dudes that perform better than some of the early picks, and all positions have high-round duds. Essentially every position but WR can be picked up for free in most leagues.
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Aug 6, 2016 22:05
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Teemu Pokemon posted:Yeah but there's only like 10 good TEs which mean half of them are coming of the WW or in late rounds which is most definitely not true for any other position Last year alone, this was literally true* of QBs (Bort/Palmer/Cousins/Fitz) and just as many top-12 running backs were basically free (Freeman/David Johnson/DWill) as were actually drafted in the top 12 (AP, Forte, Miller). Like, I'm not trying to argue that it might not be smart to wait on TEs. I do it all the time. I'm just trying to say that the arguments being presented here are unpersuasive. *using Spoenks actual value of 4.5 instead of rounding to "half"
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Aug 6, 2016 22:35
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Metapod posted:Seattle used graham as a blocker and not a wr lmao Well hey when you have that much talent on the offensive line you might as well trade the best one for a guy who theoretically can be asked to block. Wait a second...
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Aug 7, 2016 02:05
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Seems like some folks could use some dynasty rankings, so it seems like a good time to post Forever_Peace's 2016 Dynasty Big Board. It's just a big spreadsheet, currently geared to standard leagues. The 2015 spreadsheet is also still there in the 2nd tab if you want a laugh (though I feel pretty good about being high on David Johnson and low on Agholor, though I knew I should have gone with my gut and faded Gordon more). Here are the Columns. Basic Info Name/Pos/Team - self explanatory. Guys I was personally targeting as good value for the pick this year are highlighted (where possible, I try to move up or down into those areas of the draft if the price is right). Age - as of when I initially put the spreadsheet together about a month ago. Bye - 2016 Bye week F_P BigBoard - my own personal rankings for standard dynasty leagues. I generally fade QBs and rookie TEs significantly. DRAFT - an empty column for you to record the picks in your own draft, to see who's left. Measureables pSPARQ-Z_3SA - positional SPARQ z-score, taken from the "3 sigma athlete" website. SPARQ%_PP - SPARQ percentile, taken from the "Player Profiler" website. Playmaker - playmaker score for wide receivers, as derived at Football Outsiders. Arm - arm length (percentile and z-score), as listed in Player Profiler. Dominator - dominator scores and positional z-scores.The methodology originally comes from here and is commonly used at Rotoviz, but I took these values from Player Profiler. Breakout - Breakout age and positional z-score. Z Measureables - the average number of standard deviations away from the mean for each of these metrics (meant to be rough single indicator of college production and physical tools). Draft Draft Round and Pick - when the player was drafted overall. Draft_Pos_Rank - draft rank relative to others at the position (e.g. "4" would be the 4th player drafted at that position, regardless of where exactly in the draft that occurred). Brugler - Brugler's pre-draft rankings (just a second opinion of relative nfl talent). Draft Rank - the average of the actual nfl positional rank and Brugler's positional ranks. Fantasy Rankings FantasyPros - the average dynasty rookie ranking on fantasypros. Updated today, 8/7/16. REDRAFT - the average overall standard redraft rankings on fantasypros. Updated today, 8/7/16. The color codings generally indicate green for "good" and red for "bad". Some of columns are colored to reflect position-by-position comparisons, while others reflect overall comparisons. If you scroll down, the last line of the spreadsheet lists which method was used for the color coding for that particular column. Warning: some of them may be hosed up so look at the numbers.
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Aug 7, 2016 16:29
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I think you'd regret not taking at least 1 wr in the first 3 rounds. Something like option B loss best to me. Dez/Jordy Jamaal Charles Lewis/TY/Cobb Forte/Hyde Wouldn't hurt to still nab Lockette, Bruce Ellington, Snead, Dorsett, or Coates late though for more WR upside. Getting wr value of the ww is way harder than getting rb, qb, or te mid season.
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Aug 9, 2016 04:58
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Doltos you just posted a list with six rookie tight ends and Christian Hackenberg. In the fantasy thread. What is this a list of? In any case I posted a big board of the to 50 or so rookies a few pages back if you think you forgot somebody.
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Aug 9, 2016 05:03
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MrSargent posted:So I ended up with the 1st pick in my main league where I am the commissioner and defending champion. After doing a few mocks, I really don't like drafting from this position. The mocks probably aren't the best indicator but at some point, 12 Tight Ends were taken by the 9th round or something ludicrous. Yeah I've actually kind have been liking the 3-4 spot. At 6/7 your 1st round pick always feels like a reach - AP, David Johnson, Dez, AJ Green etc. But for fun, here's how my idea of a good draft at the 1 spot would hopefully go, assuming a 12-team ppr. Rnd 1: Antonio Brown Rnd 2/3: Ideal falls: Jamaal Charles, Jordy, Alshon. Likely picks: Ingram/TY/Lacy/Demaryius. Rnd 4/5: Ideal falls: Dion Lewis, Maclin, ARodg Likely Picks: Hyde, Woodhead, Larry Fitzgerald, Foster Rnd 6/7: Ideal falls: Ryan Mathews, Delanie Walker, Coby Fleener Likely Picks: Tyler Lockett, Ameer Abdullah, Jeremy Hill, John Brown, Kevin White Rnd 8/9: Ideal Falls: Charles Sims Likely Picks: Tevin Coleman, Willie Snead, Bilal Powell Rnd 10/11: Ideal Falls: Kamar Aiken, CJ Prosise, Tony Romo Likely Picks: Sammie Coates, DeAndre Washington, Mohamed Sanu, Phillip Dorsett Rnd 12/13: Ideal Falls: Matt Ryan, Kenneth Dixon, Tyrod Taylor, Dwayne Allen Likely Picks: McKinnon, Ebron, Bruce Ellington Likely possible starters: QB: Ryan/Tyrod/Winston RB1: Ingram/Lacy RB2: Hyde/Woodhead/Foster WR1: Antonio Brown WR2: TY/Demaryius TE: Ebron Bench: Something like Lockett/Abdullah/Coleman/Bilal/Coates/Sanu/Ellington Dream Draft where everything falls right: QB: ARodg RB1: Jamaal RB2: Dion Lewis WR1: Antonio Brown WR2: Alshon TE: Coby Fleener For how often you'd probably be missing out on QBs and TEs on the 1 spot, I'm not really sure how much I like either the likely RB2s or the likely WR2s unless you snare one of Lewis or Alshon.
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Aug 9, 2016 13:09
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Superflex I'd probably rather have Tyrod plus a third than Landry, particularly in standard, unless you had some pretty big return yard scoring.
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Aug 9, 2016 15:40
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Don't have a dog in this fight, but Foster is pretty good, dude. In before "injury prone".
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Aug 9, 2016 17:23
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Last year, anybody who owned him got three consecutive games of 20+ ppr points basically for free. And I don't mean in the "had a run of three good games inside of a longer stretch" sense. I mean every single time you would be starting him, he was one of the best running backs in fantasy football. He was still good last year.
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Aug 9, 2016 17:31
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Teemu Pokemon posted:And I drafted him at every opportunity, traded him right before he came back for guys like OBJ/Hilton/Thomas, and laughed all the way to the league championship while the new Foster owner flamed out in the first round with no WR1 or RB A) There isn't a competitive league on the planet where you could trade Foster for OBJ last year, B) I have no clue what game you are playing if scoring a lot more points than the other guy for a quarter of your season isn't meaningful. Like, "winning" trades is nice and all, but it is orthogonal to the question of whether or not Foster was good last year (he was).
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Aug 9, 2016 17:49
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MrSargent posted:Here is how my first mock of the day ended up going. They gave me a draft grade of A, which I know doesn't mean much but it was the first time getting above a C when drafting from 1st. I actually really like this team but think it is unlikely to occur in my league (Rodgers won't last until the 4/5 turn). Let me know what you think and where I can improve! Yeah I like it. Bummer that the #3 team kept sniping the "ideal falls" from you (Dion/Sims/Aiken etc). ARodg then Mathews at the next turn was a pretty huge coup in this particular draft though. With a big marginal advantage at both QB and WRs, as well as a starting running back at rb3, you could have potentially afforded to wait a bit longer at starting TE in order to take at least one more upside RB like Coleman or Washington. The starters you had at that point were good enough to let you start taking more risk for your bench. Overall I'd be happy with that from the 1 though.
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Aug 9, 2016 21:08
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