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Amergin
Jan 29, 2013

THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

Spoeank posted:

Jordan Reed's ADP in the last two weeks is round 4, Delanie round 6. There are plenty of value TEs though..

ASJ, Ebron, Ertz, Bennett are all double digit round ADPs since May 10.

You also have potential deep dive guys like Tye and Walford that are virtually undrafted.

Ebron and Ertz are guys I'll be grabbing in those late rounds unless they get hyped and their ADP rises. Ertz was phenomenal towards the end of last season and I think Pederson will be running more two tight end sets out there. I don't expect top 5 TE numbers, but I think top 10 isn't hard to imagine.

With Ebron, I have a feeling that many of the red zone passing looks that would have gone to Megatron will go to Ebron. Marvin Jones is the big variable here, and I seem to either hear that he's a stud bubbling under the surface waiting for his chance (which is now, in Detroit) or that he's never been able to be a WR1 on a team and he'll just complement Tate.

EDIT: Also on reach chat, I have been reaching like a madman on my rookie drafts so far. I got poo poo for going with Booker at 1.08 (I have CJA) over Henry, Perkins, Fuller, Boyd and Carroo. Maybe rightfully so, but FFB is a crapshoot anyway so I'll pick the guy I want and be happy with my pick goddamnit :bahgawd:

Amergin fucked around with this message at 16:18 on May 25, 2016

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Amergin
Jan 29, 2013

THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

Cervixalot posted:

Anyone have a good list of players who get a boost from punt/kick return scoring (1 pt per 25 yards)?

Off the top of my head, some of the higher ranked options that get a boost are:

Antonio Brown
Tyler Lockett
Jarvis Landry

Abdullah, possibly Duke Johnson, and Bruce Ellington. Abdullah especially.

Amergin
Jan 29, 2013

THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Is it? He's recovering from an ACL tear, and while we've seen significant improvements in recovery there's no guarantee that he comes back in the same form he was last year. While New England did nothing to address the RB position in the draft, LeGarrette Blount is only 29 and has plenty left in the tank. Lewis's ADP of 5.3 is not a place I would be drafting a player with that level of risk.

Not to mention from week 13 on, James White seemed to be a pretty serviceable pass-catching back for them.


Tiptoes posted:

Why do people believe that the Jaguars passing offense won't regress this year? I have trouble buying that Hurns, or even Robinson, will repeat last year's numbers. The Jaguars were 9th as a team in red zone opportunities per game, but 19th overall in terms of yards/drive and red zone scoring efficiency. Looks prime for regression, especially touchdowns, to me.

I'm sitting on a couple shares of Robinson in dynasty leagues and I'm really, really torn on trading him or not because of this. It seems like now is a prime sell-high point for him but then again, the entire dynasty community seems to think of him as a locked-in top 5 studmuffin and I'm not exactly swimming in talent in my teams that I can afford to release a stud.

Amergin fucked around with this message at 16:19 on Jun 7, 2016

Amergin
Jan 29, 2013

THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

Forever_Peace posted:

White was targeted 16 times in the AFC championship and only caught five of them.

Lewis is not only a far better runner, but is probably the better passing threat too.

Sure, I'm not saying White is better or as good as Lewis. Lewis is by far the most talented RB in their set.

I guess what I'm saying is if Lewis isn't the same post-injury, or if the team wants to go more by a committee to keep him healthy, they have serviceable options in both Blount and White to reduce Lewis' early down runs and 3rd down pass catching. It's not like they're the Texans for example, where you have Miller and... Blue and Grimes?

Amergin
Jan 29, 2013

THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

Lincoln posted:

I think I just figured something out:

QBs have always gone early in our league. Last year, two went in the 1st round, one in the 2nd and one in the 3rd. I've assumed til now that it's a holdover from the earlier days of the league, when QBs scored 6/TD and 1/20 yds passing. But a couple of seasons ago we backed off QB scoring to a much more reasonable 5/25. A bit higher than average, but not enough to justify how our QBs are still being drafted.

Here's the thing: we charge $10 for free agents and trades. So streaming QB-of-the-Week (or K or DST) is out of the question. I can't believe I'm just now figuring this out -- but for all I know, I'm wrong & we simply have a bunch of morons in our league. Am I right? Is that a justifiable reason to draft elite QBs early?

I think that makes QBs a little bit more valuable by restricting streaming, but you're still able to get great steals at QB in later rounds. Just because folks pick up the Cam/Russel/Luck/Rodgers early on and it hurts to stream doesn't mean you still can't take a Bortles/Carr/Cousins/Smith later on after your starting RBs, WRs and maybe TE are settled.

So I guess I'd say stick with grabbing a QB late, just try to pick up a second QB really late on a different bye week. So maybe a Winston, Ryan or Stafford rounds 9-12 and then Brock or Cutler at the tail end of the draft. Or even Carr/Rivers/Eli a couple rounds earlier and then Winston/Ryan/Stafford as your backup.

Amergin
Jan 29, 2013

THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES
Quick dynasty question for you guys:

I've just signed up to a new startup league - 2 QB, 0.5 PPR, 2 RB/3 WR/1 TE/2 flex, 12 teams.

This is my first 2QB league, but the scoring rules seem to be geared for big plays.

QB: 1 pt for every 50 yards passing, 3 points for a 300 yard game, +1 for 400, etc. 4 pts for passing TDs, 6 pts for rushing TDs.
Also 1 point per 20 yards rushing/receiving, 3 points for 100 yards rushing/receiving.

So... how the hell do I draft for this? Looking at scoring for last year the top 5 total points were Cam, Brady, A. Brown, Palmer and Julio with Cam having a pretty large lead for 1st. RBs seem to be pretty low in scoring compared to WRs here too so I'm thinking I need to target QBs and WRs early on and pray for RB dart throws and value picks mid-rounds?

Amergin
Jan 29, 2013

THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

RVProfootballer posted:

Kinda curious about my intuition now. Where did Hill rank amongst RBs? 12-15ish?

Good guess! He was RB14, almost completely tied exactly with McFadden. There's a cluster there with Murray, Ingram, McFadden and Hill around 120-125 points for the season.

Amergin
Jan 29, 2013

THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

Amergin posted:

I've just signed up to a new startup league - 2 QB, 0.5 PPR, 2 RB/3 WR/1 TE/2 flex, 12 teams.
...
So... how the hell do I draft for this?

Todd Gurley was picked at 1.01, Julio at 1.02 :psyduck:

Amergin
Jan 29, 2013

THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

Thelonius Van Funk posted:

So I'm in a pretty deep dynasty league(2qb, 30 roster spots) and I'm having trouble deciding who of my bubble guys to cut in order to make room for the rookie draft. I need to cut 4 out of Dontrelle Inman, Keith Mumphery, Chris Polk, Jonathan Grimes, Kendall Gaskins & Shaun Draughn. I also have a kicker (Mcmanus) and a D/St(Bengals) on the roster but people hoard both of those positions so streaming those don't really work. Right now I'm thinking of keeping Draughn and flipping a coin between the two WRs
Edit: Standard scoring, 0 ppr

Considering Chris Polk is an FA I'd drop him. Mumphery is also likely behind Shorts, Washington and maybe even Fuller so he's probably not worth wasting a roster slot on either.

Amergin
Jan 29, 2013

THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES
Might need to pump the brakes on that Zeke hype train.

Amergin
Jan 29, 2013

THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

89 posted:

So.....how many leagues is everybody in this year? Last year, I was in 5 and that seemed like too much.

Going from 10 down to 7 with 5 dynasty leagues.

Amergin
Jan 29, 2013

THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

LmaoTheKid posted:

Allen
Nelson
Marshall (though I worry about the Cycle of Fitz)
Cooks
Evans
Watkins

I'm a little bearish on Nelson and bullish on Evans so I'd go:

Allen
Evans
Marshall
Cooks
Nelson
Watkins

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Amergin
Jan 29, 2013

THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

Doltos posted:

Also speaking of mid-tier players how would you guys rank C.J. Anderson, Carlos Hyde, Matt Forte, Latavius Murray, and Thomas Rawls?

In terms of sheer usage I think Hyde and Anderson are going to be near the top but Rawls feels like the safest bet.

Personally I think it's:
Rawls > Anderson ~= Hyde > Murray > Forte

But I'm also wondering if Murray is a surprise hit this season with their O-line upgrades and nasty-looking defense.

EDIT: This is assuming the Denver WRs make their QBs look serviceable. Otherwise Anderson falls into the Murray tier, if not the Forte tier. They don't have the O-line to deal with box stacking.

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