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BeerSheets!old dog child posted:Goon Fantasy Football IRC  Welcome back Fantasy Sports Fans, it's 2016. It's officially time to  In addition to the links below you can also check out this list from Dynasty League Football. This Reddit post also has a ton of useful information. Free League Hosting Services
Want to know when a previously unheard of player is starting, or that your stud is out for the game because of a DUI? Twitter is your friend! These recommendations come from Dirt Worshipper and Azhais. Football Guys @Sigmundbloom Produces the excellent "Audible" podcast. My favorite follow. @MattWaldman Writes the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I'm not sure he sleeps. @JeneBramel MD and Football Guy, excellent for injury updates on gameday morning and IDP advice Misc. Writers @4for4_Paul - from 4for4, most accurate guy the last couple years @ChrisWesseling Former writer for NBC rotoworld, works for Falcons media now I think. Not sure if he's still gonna do fantasy when 2013 rolls around. If he does, he's one of the best, and well worth the follow. @dpbrugler Dane Brugler, former NFL scout and writer for CBS, good follow. @SC_DougFarrar Doug Farrar of shutdown corner @LanceZierlein Runs thesidelineview.com, great follow @Dumonjic_Alen Bleacher report/sidelineview contributor, player evals. Smart kid. Pro Football Focus @MikeClayNFL Accurate, prolific, one of the better writers @JeffRatcliffe Great for IDP @PFF_RossMiles Also great for IDP, does a weekly IDP show with Ratcliffe @dynastytim used to write for Dynasty League Football, just joined PFF. Great dynasty follow. NFL Guys @AlbertBreer @gregcosell @mortreport @AdamSchefter Varg posted:Footballguys just emailed out an entire list of who to follow on twitter for every team's fantasy purposes.. I might actually pay attention to twitter now. I put it into an excel file in case anyone who's not subscribed to their mailings is interested. BeerGod feel free to add this to the OP too if you want Podcasts Just listen to Azhais: Azhais posted:
Also Dren: Dren posted:You should add Christopher Harris's Fantasy Underground (available on iTunes) podcast to the podcast list.  Introduction Fantasy Football is the ancient art of nerds pouring over statistics in the hopes of predicting how infinitely more athletic and successful men will perform over the course of a professional football game. In recent history it has become a billion dollar industry while infusing itself into the collective psyche of the NFL. Countless podcasts, articles, websites, and every other source under the sun have sprung up in support of what is essentially glorified socialized gambling. There's even a television show about a league. Fantasy Football is basically Dungeons & Dragons for The leagues themselves vary from friendly to insane, including at least one where the loser gets a tattoo chosen by the winner. Other leagues have pots worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, or byzantine rules about relegation, delegation, salary caps, and every other statistic under the sun. We are collectively insane, and we can't get enough. Fantasy Football itself is a lot of fun. Not only do you get to make a game out of watching football, but it also forces you to learn about the sport as a whole. I would never have known (or cared) that last year Darren McFadden was struggling with the Raider's transition from a power blocking scheme to a zone block until he became my first round draft pick and started costing me games. It makes you a better fan when you know all the players on the field. Dirt Worshipper said it best: Dirt Worshipper posted:Before I played fantasy I despised it. We all know the obnoxious guy at the sports bar in the Brady jersey, running in between TV’s screaming ”Throw Jennings the ball!”. They disagree fundamentally with the lessons our fathers taught us about football: You root for your home team, through good years and bad. The bad years are meant to be borne with grim fidelity, the good years are our reward. Fantasy was just wrong. The Basics A league consists of several owners (typically 12), one of whom is the commissioner who manages the league. At the beginning of the season each owner drafts a roster of players. Rosters are typically fifteen players and consist of starters and a bench of reserve players to replace starters who are injured or on bye weeks. A typical starting lineup that will mirror NFL positions and consist of 1 Quarterback (QB), 2 Running Backs (RB), 3 Wide Receivers (WR), 1 Tight End (TE), a Place Kicker (PK), and a Team Defense/Special Teams (DST). Each week your players will score points for your team according to their performance. Scoring can be very simple or incredibly complicated depending on the league, but many leagues use a standard scoring system where passing provides 1 point per 25 yards, 4 points per passing touchdown, and -1 point per interception and receiving and rushing gain 1 point per 10 yards, 6 points per receiving/rushing touchdown. Field goals are typically worth 3 points, and team defense scoring depends on a number of factors including sacks, interceptions, points allowed, defensive touchdowns, etc. Many leagues will use different scoring systems depending on the preferences of the players. One significant difference is PPR, or Points Per Reception, where wide receiver are awarded a set number of points (typically 0.5 or 1) for every reception. The league season will go for a set number of weeks during the regular NFL season. Typically the last two to four weeks of the regular season are reserved for the playoffs, and most leagues end on the sixteenth week because many NFL teams will sit their star players in Week 17 if the outcome doesn't matter. Variations There are many roster variations that different leagues will use. Many leagues use a flex position where different positions can fit into a slot. The most common form of flex position replaces the third WR position in the standard lineup above with a WR/RB/TE flex position. That means that any Wide Receiver, Running Back, or Tight End player could be used in that slot. Leagues where that flex position allows a QB are typically called "2 QB leagues" because quarterbacks typically score far more points that other players. Other leagues utilize IDP or Individual Defensive Players instead of Team Defenses. IDP players score points for tackles, sacks, interceptions, touchdowns, etc. Many leagues are several years old and include rules to provide continuity between seasons. In contrast to a redraft league where every player is drafted at the start of each season some leagues use keepers where team owners are allowed to keep a set number of players per year. Other leagues are dynasty leagues where the entire roster is kept from year to year. Typically dynasty leagues use much deeper benches and include a rookie draft. The Draft Every league starts with a draft, where team owner pick their players. There are two major types of draft; the snake draft and the auction draft. A snake draft is where every owner receives a draft position and then picks a player in order for a number of rounds equal to the roster size. It's called a snake draft because the order "snakes" back and forth each round. In other words the owner who picked last in the first round will pick first in the second. Auction drafts are where each team owner has a set budget and they bid for each player until everyone's roster has been filled. There are numerous drafting strategies out there, but ultimately the goal of any draft is to get the maximum amount of value for your players. Trades and the Waiver Wire While drafting is essential, the most successful teams typically win by taking advantage of the waiver wire and trades. Trading is precisely what it sounds like; players offer each other trades that are accepted or rejected. Many leagues incorporate an approval process to prevent collusion where two players will deliberately stack one team and then split the winnings; there is no universe where Adrian Peterson is worth Mark Sanchez. Depending on the league trading may either be nonexistent or commonplace. Many leagues will end trading several weeks before the playoffs begin. The NFL has hundreds of players and most of them will not be on a team roster. As players are injured or fall out of favor team owners will be forced to pick up free agents to replace them. To do this they use the waiver wire. Each week individual players are locked the moment their team starts their game. For the duration of this "waiver period" owners who wish to claim a free agent submit a "waiver claim." Owners who wish to make more than one waiver claim must indicate the priority of their claims. At the end of the waiver period (typically a day or two after the beginning of the new week) the league software checks the standings of the teams. Going in reverse order (worst standing to highest) the teams get their highest priority claim. If multiple teams have submitted waiver claims for the same player it will go the team with the lowest standing, and the other teams will get their lower priority claims. After the waiver period has ended every player is available to be claimed immediately. The waiver wire is extremely important. Alfred Morris, the 5th ranked running back of 2012, was a free agent in most leagues until the first week. Many owners use the waiver wire to "stream" defenses and other players based on that week's match. Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 00:01 on Aug 30, 2016 |
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Apr 30, 2016 23:47
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if I'm listening to the podcast I probably already know about it). 4 for 4 has been one of the most accurate sites for a few years now, so I'll give this one a go til the start of the season anyway.
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| # ¿ May 2, 2024 00:53 |
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timp posted:Slow draft time. Let's slow draft. Absolutely. Either reply here or PM me and let me know if you want in for a draft only MFL league starting as soon as I get 12 people. I'll need e-mail addresses to invite people.
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May 1, 2016 00:00
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coronaball posted:In again for a slow draft. Let's make this one free, but I have no doubt others would be down for some MFL10s.
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May 1, 2016 04:08
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Spoeank posted:I can't slow draft because I'll be in the Bahamas & Santa Barbara on my honeymoon for two weeks I am down for burning the whole list and starting over with Goon Approved sources.
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May 1, 2016 05:03
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Rahzmataz posted:Got 2 spaces? Me and the missus are looking for a league. She's not a goon, but I can vouch for her. This isn't a league, just a draft. You two are welcome to draft though! Also if you want a rather crazy league my charity one is always looking for more!
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May 1, 2016 11:02
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Rahzmataz posted:Well I feel like a dumbass. Also, tell me more about this charity league! It's called "Cheating For Charity" and we all play for our own charities, with the pot going to the top two teams in the championship game. It's an IDP league and a key mechanic is that players can donate to increase their FAAB and cheat by swapping out players after they've done well. In the three years I have done it we've raised over $7K. The competition is fierce.
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May 1, 2016 16:43
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Rahzmataz posted:That actually sounds really fun, and we're up for the idea of giving to charity. Can you PM me some details? Here's last year: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3728593 Spoeank posted:Oh God Cheating for Charity is going to be 20 teams next year isn't it Technical champ best champ.
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May 2, 2016 00:40
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VietCampo posted:Top 3 WR's are AB/Julio/Hopkins imo I would say OBJ has earned the right to be among those names. For me the unquestioned first rounders this year are Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham Jr, and Rob Gronkowski. Everyone else has a question mark. LeVeon Bell, Jamaal Charles, and Dez Bryant are coming off of injury. Adrian Peterson is getting older. Todd Gurley and David Johnson are sophomores. Allen Robinson and AJ Green have questionable QB situations.
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May 2, 2016 05:08
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RVProfootballer posted:2QB, dynasty, full PPR, 4 PT passing TD, which side do you like for two teams looking to compete: I would not make that trade if I was the team with Cam Newton. Having Newton and Big Ben is a ridiculously solid core, and in 2015 dropping from Newton to Smith/Teddy would have resulted in a loss of around 7 (for Smith) to 11 (for Bridgewater) points per game. Last year Allen Hurns was the WR14, and the difference between Julio and Allen last year was only 4 PPG. Now is it possible that Newton regresses and Bridgewater improves? Sure. But Cam Newton's worst season since 2011 averaged him 17.8 PPG. In a 2QB league Newton's value is incredible and it would take a king's ransom to let him go.
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May 2, 2016 14:55
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This Reddit link is cool and good.RVProfootballer posted:You don't think Hurns likely regresses significantly? 10 TDs seems very unlikely again, no? And are you sure that's his full PPR ranking? Looks like he was WR19 in total points and WR23 in ppg in this league, for what it's worth. Hurns averaged 15 ppg, and Julio 23 ppg. I based the numbers off of FantasyPros, and I thought I had selected PPR. In the end it all depends on our individual perspectives. I think Hurns will regress, sure, but I also think Davante Parker will improve and could easily be a WR1 or WR2 this year. More specifically I think that the PPG disparity between Newton and his replacement will be significantly greater than the disparity between Julio and Hurns or Parker. So in my eyes I wouldn't want that trade.
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May 2, 2016 17:47
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Zypher posted:Good god do I want to be in another slow draft? Veritek83 posted:Definitely down for a goon MFL draft only Cervixalot posted:I'm in again this year. coronaball posted:In again for a slow draft. Rahzmataz posted:Got 2 spaces? Me and the missus are looking for a league. She's not a goon, but I can vouch for her. VietCampo posted:I'd like in on this slow draft if there's still space. Spoeank posted:If the slow draft starts a week from Sunday or later I am down, like always. But I know there will be another one otherwise. http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3774787
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May 5, 2016 00:49
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 Two spaces left in the Slow Draft!
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May 6, 2016 13:45
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What podcasts do people like? My preference is for the Fantasy Footballers and CBS.
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May 19, 2016 13:07
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Preliminary BeerSheet...
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May 21, 2016 02:18
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Leperflesh posted:Oh my god, Tom Brady. I guess this takes into account the 4-game suspension. SK is skewness. I'm goofing around with using nonparametric skew since it's easier for me to comprehend and the Wikipedia article includes a quantitative definition of a significant amount of skew. It represents the extent to which the data is unevenly distributed, suggesting the possibility that a player's calculated value could change significantly if the highest or lowest values were truncated. A positive sign indicates that someone might be dragging down a player's value, negative sign means the opposite. I use it as a way to differentiate players within a tier. If someone with a background in statistics could help me understand if this is a terrible idea I'd appreciate it.
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May 22, 2016 04:28
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RVProfootballer posted:Yeah, I know, it's tough to frame it accurately. Anything like "I would have so and so ranked higher" implies Beer ranked them lower, at least that's the default for me. Insert an implied "[than Beersheets have them]" rather than "[than Beer ranked them]" and I think it's good. It's okay. I don't take it personally and since I'm the one aggregating all these projections it's fair to call my methods out. For example Tom Brady definitely doesn't deserve to be that low.
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May 22, 2016 19:42
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Sataere posted:Is it really a methodology issue? You are just stating what the current consensus is? Yup. I don't put any personal input into the system if that's what you mean. What I do is have each estimate calculate player value relative to a baseline and then run statistics on the collection of values. The method inherently depreciates anyone who misses games due to injury or suspension. For example if I took Brady's projections and divided them by 11 games instead of 15 it would result in a much higher value and he would likely be viable at his ADP. You could probably stream a QB to make up for the lost games, but the sheets don't take into account the possibility of streaming two players for a season. It's one of the reasons I added the result of the previous season; I wanted a rubric for showing how consistent a player could be. For example last year Eric Decker was at least a WR3 in all fourteen games he played, but he was only a WR1 for one of them. That's a pretty good floor; even Antonio Brown missed out on being a WR3 in five of his games. Obviously previous performance is not always an indicator of future potential, but it's better than nothing. Some folks use my sheets like a ranking list and grab whoever has the highest value. That method can work, but I'm doing my best to make a tool that's even more powerful than that.
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May 22, 2016 20:55
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Silly Burrito posted:Early question for the upcoming year. Who to keep out of Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls and CJ Anderson? No penalties or rounds to worry about, just keep 2. Keep two this year, one next is interesting. What are the actual rules? That you can keep two players for their first year or one player for their second? I would keep Charles and Lacy. I don't like that Seattle picked up all that competition for Rawls.
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May 22, 2016 23:24
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Silly Burrito posted:It's on a three year cycle. You keep any two players this year (my only other keepers I'd consider would be Mike Evans/Tom Brady). Next year, you only get one keeper (does not have to be the same as previous year). The third year, there are no keepers and everyone is in the draft pool. That's kind of cool, and honestly depending on the rules Mike Evans might not be a bad pick.
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May 23, 2016 01:07
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Super fun kicker chat. I'm starting to think that drafting Gostkowski a few rounds before the end of the draft isn't the dumbest idea in the world.
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May 23, 2016 02:24
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VietCampo posted:So you're telling me to draft him with my next pick in the slow draft? Probably.
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May 23, 2016 03:27
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Drunk Nerds posted:How many more points did he average per game than the 12th highest-scoring kicker? In 2014 it was a slim 2.2 2.2 PPG is the difference between the WR24 and the WR12. It's not slim.
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May 23, 2016 13:02
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Spoeank posted:MFL10 ADP since May 10: It's scary how good his prospects are. The best line in the league with a team showing signs of emphasizing the power running game. It's pretty tempting.
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May 24, 2016 05:03
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Drafting near the end and getting a stud WR and AJ Green on the turn seems like a good way to go about things.
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May 24, 2016 12:36
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drat, solid analysis.
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May 27, 2016 18:39
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 I'm experimenting with a way to prognosticate the selection of players based on ADP. I'm not sure how useful the method here is going to be, but it provides a pretty graph in the lower right and gives me a chance to talk about it. The basic idea is that I take Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP data and use the mean and standard deviation of each player to establish a probability curve. I then use those curves to determine the probability that a player of each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) will be taken. I do this by determining the probability that each player of a given position won't be taken, multiplying all of them together to get the probability that none of them will be taken, and then subtract that from one to get the probability that at least one will be taken. It's not a perfect system (ideally it would always add up to 100% for each draft spot, in reality it's closer to 90%) but it does provide some interesting results and trends.
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May 28, 2016 19:53
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MrSargent posted:Being a top-10 pick based on your ADP does not make you worth that pick. Do we need to remember what happened to CJA last year when he was a top-10 pick? If anyone can explain to me why DJ is actually WORTH a top-10 pick, and not just say that's where his ADP is, I would love to hear it. It's a valid question. I think his high ADP is a reflection of the uncertainty of the RB position. He is one of the few players to have a high chance of being an actual bellcow in a high tempo offense, and when he was finally given the starting role last year he performed at an extremely high level. He averaged 4.6 YPC over 125 carries and in spite of getting single digit carries for the first 12 Weeks he ended up as the RB7 in standard scoring. A significant portion of that performance was through the air; nearly half of his yards and a third of his touchdowns were receptions. All offseason signs are that he'll have an ever greater role to play in Arizona's offense, and with little in the way of competition there isn't much to hurt his floor of a RB1. Other RBs are just as unproven. Bell was severely injured (again), Gurley had a solid season but who knows about the sophomore slump and the situation in LA, Freeman has Coleman as competition, Peterson is old, Elliott is a rookie, Charles is coming off of injury, and Miller is on a new team. So his first round grade is a combination of high performance, great opportunity, and a lack of elite prospects.
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May 28, 2016 21:33
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Ingram scares me. His injury history is extremely high and if history is any indicator he'll miss around 4 games. I would gladly take Martin over him, and with respect to ADP it's pretty easy to do.
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May 29, 2016 04:02
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FYI anyone up for spending money on Fantasy, Rotopass is cool and good. They have a code (EARLY) for 10% off.
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May 31, 2016 20:04
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Benne posted:Today in "hey remember that guy?" news, former The Next Aaron Hernandez Except Without the Murder Tim Wright tore his ACL And so It Begins.
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Jun 1, 2016 14:40
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Azhais posted:So, Beer, have you ever considered trying out something like UNU to generate your beersheets? What the hell is that? EDIT: Huh. Kind of cool. So it's a wisdom of the crowds kind of thing. It's actually very similar to how BeerSheets work. Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Jun 2, 2016 |
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Jun 2, 2016 00:15
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Spoeank posted:Anywho, I'm about to write an article that's basically FF for newbies (the site I write for is primarily a lifestyle site). I'm thinking: Check this out: https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/4h6n0i/draft_strategies_tips_2016_edition/
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Jun 2, 2016 20:19
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Draft Gostkowski in the 8th.
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Jun 3, 2016 02:06
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Updated BeerSheets and did one for 0 PPR. Also shows off the draft predictor. https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/4mb3dy/beersheets_early_june_0ppr_edition/
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Jun 3, 2016 05:32
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MrSargent posted:Okay we need some action in this thread so here are a few "sleepers" or guys who will be under-drafted that I have been considering far too early. Comments are based on a 10 team, 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLX league with 0.5 PPR. Allen Hurns: Not much has changed between this year and last when Hurns put up 8 games as a WR3 and 4 as a WR1. Last year's WR14, I'm not entirely sure why his ADP is the middle of the 6th and his value projection has him as a borderline WR3. At least based on my projections I won't be drafting him. Jordan Matthews is a full two tiers ahead of him and goes around the same time, and his tier is filled with other late round gems like Devante Parker, Marvin Jones, and Torrey Smith. That said there's nothing preventing his upside from going high and the Jaguars look to be heading in the right direction so anyone who feels the need to "reach" for him isn't really looking terrible. Mark Ingram: I won't be drafting Ingram. While he pulled RB2 or better games in 10 of the 12 games he played last year, he hasn't had a full healthy season since 2012. Of course there's nothing preventing you from drafting Tim Hightower late (he's currently undrafted) as a handcuff, but given the depth at RB this year I'd rather use that third round pick on a Brandon Marshall (assuming Fitzmagic is back) or Demaryius Thomas. Devante Parker: Projections have him in the same tier as Hurns but going a full round later. He pulled WR3 numbers in 3 of the 8 games he played, but again the opportunity cost is a question. Should I draft a player like Parker on upside, or go for a player like Decker (again assuming Fitzmagic is back) who scored WR3 numbers in every game he played? I like Parker and have high hopes for the Miami offense in general, but it's hard to grab him when there are so many value plays I could pick up instead. Marvin Jones: Once again we're in the same tier as Parker and Hurns, only now with an ADP of 11 there's a solid chance he'll be available. I think Detroit is going to do well with their new offensive coordinator and think everyone in this offense is underrated. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins: He's basically free at this point. Projections remain super low (he's barely above Jimmy Graham and four of the seven players in his tier go undrafted), but if you believe the injury label is off and Tampa's offense will improve then he's worth taking a flyer on. That said there are other players ranked up in a higher tier that are drafted behind him and might be worth taking instead, like Julius Thomas or... Eric Ebron: Ebron is projected as the TE11 in an offense that I expect to do well. If you're not interested in going with an elite prospect (incidentally Reed is currently projected to be in the same tier as Gronk) then drafting him late is a solid idea. Alfred Morris: I love Alf and was sad to see him leave Washington. That said I'm not convinced he's worth drafting. I think it's more likely that if Elliott isn't the bellcow people expect (and I am not a fan of drafting rookies as starters), but there's nothing about Morris that stands out relative to McFadden. I mean he's a reliable and awesome guy, and behind that line it's hard not to love him, but I consider him to be solidly a flyer in a season where there are plenty of other RBs to snag late. Dion Lewis: His ADP is 5.3, his ADP is 5.3, but his projections lump him in with the likes of Duke Johnson and Jay Ajayi (albeit with a skew that suggests a high level of upside). The reason? Two projections (FantasySharks and Rotowire) have him basically unstartable and that's dragging his value down. My guess is that they aren't as wiling to trust a NE RB as others.
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Jun 7, 2016 03:12
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https://twitter.com/RotoPass/status/739536822913671168 I've been pretty drat happy with RotoPass myself.
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Jun 7, 2016 03:15
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Spoeank posted:I'm putting together a piece called "ADPs That Make No Sense" and Dion Lewis is the reason why. Total steal. Is it? He's recovering from an ACL tear, and while we've seen significant improvements in recovery there's no guarantee that he comes back in the same form he was last year. While New England did nothing to address the RB position in the draft, LeGarrette Blount is only 29 and has plenty left in the tank. Lewis's ADP of 5.3 is not a place I would be drafting a player with that level of risk. There are plenty of other RBs going around him that would be worth considering like DeMarco Murray, Carlos Hyde, and Latavius Murray. WRs going around that point include Golden Tate, Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb, or Doug Baldwin. You could even luck out and get Jordan Reed who has an ADP in the middle of the fourth but could easily slide. The earlier the pick the lower my tolerance for risk, and I don't think the upside Lewis offers is sufficient to warrant drafting him at his ADP.
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Jun 7, 2016 03:24
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Forever_Peace posted:Why is Cobb going so late? Didn't he play nearly all of last year with a shoulder injury? I assume it's a combination of poor performance, the return of Nelson, and a run on RBs in the round ahead of him.
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Jun 7, 2016 12:21
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Spoeank posted:draft_helium.png LOL Rookies
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Jun 8, 2016 04:29
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| # ¿ May 2, 2024 00:53 |
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In the end Fantasy Football is just dumb entertainment. How people choose to enjoy that entertainment is up to them. For some that entertainment is better experienced by avoiding certain players. For others it's purely a competitive numbers game.
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Jun 11, 2016 16:29
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