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Does anyone have some suggestions for QB stashes in a dynasty league turning superflex in 2017. All obvious qbs are rostered, and I'm sure all of the halfway promising rookie qbs will be off the draft board early. I'm thinking those qbs who were drafted to sit behind an aging starter, learning their trade, like Rodgers did. The 2 names I know of along those lines are Brett Hundley (GB), who is rostered, and Garret Grayson (NO), who I intend to pick up after the rookie draft. Anyone know of anyone else worth picking up, or just keeping an eye on?
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May 4, 2016 08:23
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| # ¿ Apr 28, 2024 09:42 |
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I think Garopollo is taken, so Garrett Grayson it is. Just made sense to me rather than drafting a qb like dak Prescott who will be sitting behind an older vet to see whether there was anyone from previous drafts was further along in a similar project. I get loads of good advice from you guys, and while I do well in my leagues don't generally feel I can give much back. But you might find this useful - I spent some time playing with the reception perception data for the Rookie WRs for my own benefit to rank them based on all round ability, as I personally would prioritise that over situation, for dynasty at least. I also like data approaches because being from the UK I know nothing about these players aside from other people's opinions and so looking at data helps me feel like I've had some input into my decisions rather than just following an expert's ranking. So, using the RP data I ranked each receiver against the variables which seemed most relevant to ability rather than usage, so ignored route type percentages for example, but included targets, catches, getting open against coverage, tackles broken, contested catches. I averaged the rank for each overall subsection and then ranking the receivers again based on that average. Them doing the same for their subsection ranks to get an overall rank. I'm not a data scientist by any means so my methods are probably flawed, but the overall rankings were: 1. Josh Doctson 2. Corey Coleman 3. Rashad Higgins 4. Laquon Treadwell 5. Malcolm Mitchell 6. Mike Thomas (Southern Miss/Rams) 7. Keyarris Garrett 8. Sterling Shephard 9. Braxton Miller 10. Leonte Carroo 11. Kenny Lawler 12. Demarcus Robinson 13. Mike Thomas (Ohio/NO) 14. Tajae Sharpe 15. Will Fuller 16. Charone Peake 17. Pharoh Cooper 18. Roger Lewis 19. Tyler Boyd 20. Aaron Burbidge 21. De'Runnya Wilson I also compared that with some expert pre draft rankings/mocks and at the time it seemed like Higgins, Mitchell, Mike Thomas (Rams), Garrett and Lawler were good value for where they were being drafted, whereas the other Mike Thomas (Ohio/NO), Fuller, Pharoh Cooper and Tyler Boyd were going too early. Hope someone either finds that interesting, or can tell me why it isn't!
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May 4, 2016 13:05
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There are a few good players available as free agents in my dynasty league as people cut down ready for the rookie draft. You can use draft picks on FAs but I'm having trouble working out when in the draft to target them. The best I've come up with is working out which rookie draft pick the player would be worth in a trade according to the dynastyfftools.com calculator. Anyone have any other tips? For reference the FAs I have my eye on are Jeff Janis and Devin Smith (both players Matt Harmon's reception perception analysis is optimistic about), and I have picks 9, 10, 20, 21, 22, 25, 33, 40, 44. The dynastyfftools.com method would have me using picks 20 and 33 respectively if I didn't want to overreach. The Aguamoose fucked around with this message at 09:12 on May 8, 2016 |
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May 8, 2016 09:08
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It doesn't... Not sure if it should though, as by using the trade calculator I'm equating the player value to the value of a particular pick, rather than counting the number of picks before the player should go, if that makes sense.
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May 11, 2016 20:57
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I'm in the midst of my first ever dynasty draft, and ended up with the 4th pick in a 12 team 0.5 ppr. 1qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1 TE, 2 flex So far I've drafted: 1. Beckham Jr. 2. Keenan Allen 3. Demaryius Thomas 4. Aaron Rodgers 5. John Brown (bit of a reach but have lots of faith in him) 6. Dion Lewis 7. Josh Doctson 8. Eric Ebron 9. Nelson Agholor 10. Charles Sims (assuming the 1 guy left to pick before me this round doesn't take him) I'm pretty happy with what I have so far in terms of building a team for the future. I aimed to go young WR heavy and early along the lines of some of the advice earlier on the page, but took Thomas and Rodgers purely due to value where they had fallen to. I picked up Ebron after a bit of a run on TEs. To help me make my picks I put a spreadsheet together which has the ADP data from dynastyfftools.com and also the expert ranking from fantasy pros. It also has Matt Harmon's WR tiers on there as I have a lot of faith in his reception perception analysis, so I can use all 3 sources of info to see whether anyone remaining is good value. I can definitely recommend doing something similar to anyone else doing a startup draft, it has been really helpful.
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May 14, 2016 09:01
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First round was actually very WR heavy, it went: 1. Brown 2. Julio 3.Hopkins 4. OBJ 5.ARob 6. Bell 7. Newton 8. D Johnson 9. Amari Cooper 10. Gurley 11. Evans 12. Gronk Was definitely surprised at OBJ falling to 4, but not complaining!
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May 14, 2016 13:32
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Thanks for your thoughts. The league doesn't have kickers or defenses, though if it did I would have done as you suggest, that has always worked well for me in redraft. Doctson and Agholor I drafted in part because their reception perception results were excellent, with Harmon being bullish on both. While Doctson might take a year or two to become a starter behind Garcon and Jackson I sort of view him as my potential Thomas replacement in a couple of years. Also there is a common assumption that agholor will see less coverage and more targets with Matthews moving outside, which I guess I am gambling on a bit. I did have less to back up the Ebron pick, admittedly, it was mainly an assumption /hope that a portion of Megatron's orphaned targets would go his way, and the improvement in Stafford since Jim Bob Cooter took over the offense. I won't be taking another TE (and my qb backup) until around the last round though. The run on TEs that prompted the pick means that Walford has actually already gone (before Ebron)! I'll definitely be targeting a lot of the RBs you suggested that are remaining, with my 11th pick a little while ago I actually already took Mckinnon, and am sounding out the Peterson owner just in case he'll overpay for him. Thanks for the list as there are a couple I hadn't considered. I am also interested in Keith Marshall, as I don't rate Matt Jones much, and because it's 0.5 PPR DeAndre Washington from oakland, Daniel Lasco from NO and Josh Robinson from Indy as I think all have the opportunity to take over passing downs for their respective teams.
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May 14, 2016 14:40
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I need to explore tff more, I had missed that thread completely but it's the kind of thing I lap up. I love your explanations of the process as I enjoy analytics but don't have a background in it so am trying to learn. Thanks for linking it, I'll read through it all soon. I made a mistake in getting Josh Robinson mixed up with Josh Ferguson, Evan Silva wrote about him which is what put him on my radar - http://sports.yahoo.com/news/silva-dynasty-rookie-rankings-040500527--nfl.html This article on player profiler got me interested in Lasco, it was written before he was drafted by NO and to me it seems like he might possibly be what they were hoping for when they signed Spiller: http://www.playerprofiler.com/article/tyler-ervin-rookie-running-backs/ You're probably already aware of the site but they compare players using similar methods to in your thread, though put more emphasis on combine metric data rather than output. e: Murray and Abdullah were both gone before the Doctson pick unfortunately, the RBs had been flying off the board. The Aguamoose fucked around with this message at 16:06 on May 14, 2016 |
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May 14, 2016 15:57
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With the severity of his injury and spotty usage before it, how far does Jimmy Graham have to fall in a dynasty draft before he is worth a punt? Or should he not be touched with a bargepole?
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May 16, 2016 17:35
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Er... message received!
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May 16, 2016 19:30
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I already have a TE, Ebron (who I did probably take too early), the question was prompted because I'm at round 16 and Graham's still on the board and I couldn't decide whether to be surprised or not.
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May 16, 2016 19:46
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How do people feel about Brandin Cooks, now that the Saints have drafted Michael Thomas and picked up Fleener to compete for catches? He's on the trading block in my 0.5ppr dynasty league and I'm on the fence about whether it'd be a good move to try to trade DT plus a pick or two for him, as both seem to be valued very similarly at present. My team is very young and built to win in a couple of years rather than now, and Cooks fits that better than DT seeing as he's about 7 years younger.
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Jun 23, 2016 18:42
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Thanks Beer, looks like you already made my request as well. My main league has grown to 18 people from 14, for some silly reason. Going to need the sheet now more than ever!
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Jul 31, 2016 19:39
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Part of me agrees, part of me thinks it's going to be kinda interesting. It's only a free casual league so I'm not going to kick up a fuss about the commish inviting some more friends in. The commissioner hasn't put a limit on how many QBs can be rostered which could get interesting. Historically as a 14 team league everyone tends to draft at least 2 qbs making streaming QB impossible. With 18 teams going late round qb could backfire. Anyone got any experience with or tips for larger leagues? I know I am going to be drafting 13th.
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Aug 1, 2016 08:39
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I remember reading some frightening stuff about Williams' concussions last season. Perhaps they freaked him out enough that his heart isn't in the game anymore.
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Aug 20, 2016 21:09
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My main redraft league with friends grew to a ridiculous 18 teams this year. Having drafted 0RB I put feelers out to the RB strong teams and one just offered me Ameer Abdullah for Justin Tucker! I put the odds of my league going mental and vetoing it at 50/50.
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Sep 6, 2016 15:59
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Thanks in large part to Keenan Allen going down after I took him everywhere I could, the only league I won in this week was the dynasty orphan I took over which I expected to punt this season. Welcome back fantasy!
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Sep 13, 2016 09:28
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In my 18 team league (yes I know, it's dumb) I need to drop someone for a defense. These are the candidates: Tyler Ervin Jay Ajayi Tyrell Williams Jamison Crowder Chris Thompson Jerick Mckinnon Though we get a point per 25 return yards and he appears to be return guy/backup I I'm leaning Ervin at the moment, everyone else has either a more solid floor for an 18 teamer or more concrete potential, but do people think that that is that the right call? I've dismally failed to make a 2 for 1 trade to make space.
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Sep 16, 2016 14:51
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In Dynasty, when does team status trump player value when trading? I've been offered Emmanuel Sanders for Charles Sims in my 0.5ppr league, where Sims is a starter after I went 0rb and had an injury armageddon. There's 0 chance of competing this year due to the injuries, so Sanders will not benefit me in the short term and he'll be my oldest player save Rodgers, but all calculators have him as substantially more valuable. He's been on the block for ages so I'm not confident I can re-trade him. I'm thinking I should shop Sims to the 2-0 teams to see if I can get something more useful to me, but just wanted to see what others thought?
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Sep 23, 2016 08:26
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A taco in my league offered me abdullah for tucker. I accepted but when he got cold feet and asked the commish to cancel it I was secretly glad.
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Sep 23, 2016 16:49
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In an 18 team league where the waiver wire cupboard is bare, and you are stronger at WR than RB (not hard when you only have Sproles, Mckinnon, Howard and Thompson otherwise), would you rather have: Jay Ajayi DeAndre Washington Wendell Smallwood Mike Gillislee Kenjon Barner Orleans Darkwa Coates and Humphries are also on the wire, the only non RBs I'm tempted by. I've tried trading for an RB of course but my league has never been much into trading and this season in particular they are jealously guarded due to scarcity.
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Sep 27, 2016 21:48
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Trade query: 18 team (yes it's dumb) standard scoring league. I am a dismal 0-4, partly bad luck like losing Keenan Allen and having the highest points against by far, partly a couple of bad decisions like drafting Tate, in a league too big to give much room for error. I have an offer on the table I am unsure about: Give: DeSean Jackson, Darren Sproles, Justin Tucker Get: Todd Gurley, Nick Folk My team is: QB: Stafford, Fitzpatrick, Hoyer RB: Howard, Mckinnon, Sproles, Chris Thompson WR: AJ Green, DeSean Jackson, Quincy Enunwa, Tyrell Williams, Sammie Coates TE: Reed K: Tucker DST: streaming I'm getting the best player in the deal by a mile but he is in a terrible situation. And while kickers usually don't matter with a league this size I think they might - I'm giving up the most consistent player in Tucker and the best kicker on the wire not on a bye is Blair Walsh. Should I still mash just for the set and forget starter in Gurley? Before anyone asks why I have 3 qbs it's because I drafted the first 2 and picked up Hoyer just for this week due to matchup. Because of the size of the league QBs are so scarce that there are literally no other starting Qbs on the wire and even a couple of backups are rostered. There are already teams who have had to play games without starting a qb due to injury and steadfast refusal to trade. I have come top of the regular season standings every year before but the big increase in size has clearly put an end to that!
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Oct 6, 2016 21:26
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Drunk Nerds posted:Mash Yeah, I was over thinking. Done.
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Oct 6, 2016 22:15
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I've been offered Chris Ivory for my fitzpatrick in my standard 18 team league. RB is a wasteland at the moment so is this an instant accept in case the bye allowed him to properly recover from whatever was holding him back pre bye? Barring a massive turnaround I would not be starting Fitz save for when Stafford is playing Minnesota, as Fitz has Miami then.
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Oct 12, 2016 11:20
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| # ¿ Apr 28, 2024 09:42 |
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I've had an interesting offer in dynasty I need help with: My Rodgers, DT and Smallwood For his Carr, Arob and Lockett It's a 1qb 0.5 ppr league, where we start 3 WR and have 2 flex spots, and my team is: Rodgers, tyrod, garoppolo Lewis, Sims, Mckinnon, montgomery, Gillislee, Cmike, Smallwood OBJ, Keenan Allen, DT, doctson, J Brown, Lafell, eli Rogers, Agholor Ebron, Hooper Is the step down from Rodgers to Carr worth the upgrade at WR? I think DT is going to put up dependable but unspectacular points for a few more seasons regardless of QB, I think it's likely that Smallwood is nothing particularly special, and that it's a good time to buy low on Arob and Lockett as they are both still young and talented but I just don't know how I feel about Carr which is the only reason I haven't jumped on the offer.
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Jan 15, 2017 13:45
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