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So Zeke Elliott is the 1.01 pick in redraft leagues, right?
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May 2, 2016 00:42
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I'd honestly take ODB over anyone else but I do think Elliott's a candidate for RB1 in a weak year for RBs. He could make magic behind that line.
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May 2, 2016 02:07
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Personally, I am not touching a TE coming off ankle surgery. Bothersome ankle injuries can easily ruin a dude's season. Besides, Jordan Reed is going to be the only non-Gronk TE worth owning anyway.
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May 24, 2016 23:28
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RVProfootballer posted:Reed is going to be outscored by at least three non-Gronk TEs. Walker, Olsen, Eifert, random guy we've never heard of, Ertz, Kelce, Green, Jimmy Graham's ghost, etc etc. TE is a shitshow, don't reach for Reed after he's had one healthy, contract year season. Tiptoes fucked around with this message at 00:08 on May 25, 2016 |
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May 25, 2016 00:06
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I'm bullish on Bennett too. The Pats use two TE formations a lot more often than you'd think just by looking at the reception totals for guys like Chandler/Wright/Hoomanawui. He'll see a lot of red zone usage too as he'll be able to create excellent opportunities for one-on-one mismatches. Even Tim Wright had 6 TDs when he was with the Pats. Bennett should get 8+ so I really like him as bargain TE2 option.
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May 25, 2016 23:49
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RVProfootballer posted:I just don't get it. Wright had 250 yards to go along with those 6 touchdowns. Chandler had 250ish yards and 4 touchdowns. Chandler's numbers over the years look pretty similar to Bennett's, except for Bennett's breakout (/outlier) 2014, and was billed as a pass catching tight end that the Pats would use in two tight end sets to create mismatches.
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May 26, 2016 03:26
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I'm all about taking the guy YOU want in the first above all so I can't blame a dude if he decides that's David Johnson this year. LVB's injuries worry me at this point. I'm leaning Todd Gurley as my RB1. He's a legitimately special talent as a runner and this offseason he gets to work out instead of recover from ACL surgery. I think that'll make a difference for year two. And Fisher is such a conservative coach too so his workload should be pretty consistent.
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May 28, 2016 05:47
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MrSargent posted:I mean if he is in your league I would encourage him to take HIS GUY if his guy is a huge reach where he's drafting. Otherwise you can absolutely blame him and ridicule him for making an extremely risky first round selection.
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May 28, 2016 19:10
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Not buying the ASJ hype. I think Cameron Brate is going to give him real competition at TE and Kenny Bell will take over the slot so ASJ will be sharing the middle of the field with a talented player no matter what. Doubt ASJ will be a fixture of that passing game although I'm sure he'll have some highlight weeks that'll be hard to predict.
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May 30, 2016 09:19
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RVProfootballer posted:They cut Brate last year, then resigned him when ASJ went down. He's not legitimate competition imo. ASJ was on pace for 45-700-8, which is pretty great for a sophomore TE that lost half his rookie year to injury. We also don't actually know what kind of competition Bell is, but a 5th round red shirt rookie is far from a guaranteed talented player, at least in terms of taking a lot of looks from other receivers. quote:The Buccaneers won’t kick off their first training camp under new coach Dirk Koetter until late July but Koetter can already tell you who most of his starters on offense will be.
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May 30, 2016 23:17
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ASJ had a single top ten week after coming back at the end of last season. Three of those five games, he was TE20 or worse. His targets would have to increase substantially to make him a predictable or valuable player and I just don't see that coming for him.
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May 31, 2016 00:15
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RVProfootballer posted:He was coming back from an 11 week injury layoff, I don't think it's crazy to think his targets could increase next year. Even if they dont, the number he got the last five games would've been good for ~93 targets on the year, 10th most among TEs. VJax is a year older and closer to death, a whole bunch of garbage Tampa Bay receivers are going to lose their garbage targets, and ASJ has been with the team another year of growth. He's a great TE flier (what kind of backhanded compliment is that, lol). I'd rather Ebron or some others ahead of him, though. Just depends on who falls. I don't think anyone thinks he's a locked in TE1 or anything.
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May 31, 2016 02:09
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MrSargent posted:How can you call someone currently going in the 12th+ round a "trap player". If a late round selection like that puts up even mediocre numbers, it was a good selection. Just curious, what TE's do you like this year? As for my opinion on TEs this year, I'm willing to be aggressive about drafting the top guys, which I view are Gronk and Reed. Gronk is an easy mid-1st round pick this year and I am willing to move on Reed as early as the third round. I know that's aggressive on Reed and is subject to change as the RB rankings become more definitive and impact drafts more but I did that in the goon slow draft and didn't regret it. I think there'll be a huge drop off after those two and the competitive advantage will matter in matchups. I'm still throwing darts at TEs real late as insurance/potential trade bait but I'll be targeting those two everywhere this year. The Olsen/Barnidge/Kelce/Eifert/Walker tier from last year is subject to whoever drops the farthest in the drafts. These are the guys you don't want to take too early but I think they can return good value if you're grabbing one in the 6th or later. I'm scared off by Eifert's injury so he's off my board and I think Olsen/Walker will see a dip in their numbers so I'm shying away from them but still worth taking if you're getting a bargain in the draft. I do believe Barnidge can keep up his performance from last year and that sort of reliability probably makes him my target in the middle rounds if I miss on Gronk/Reed. Kelce's ceiling is hurt badly by Alex Smith and seems the most likely to disappoint even if healthy all year. Coby Fleener and Ladarius Green are probably worth including in that tier as well. I like their new roles and could easily see one of them winding up in the Top 5. They'll probably both be rotoworld faves like Eifert was last year though. Doubt I'd pull the trigger before the 8th but they'd be on my mind. I'm not a believer in Julius Thomas or Zach Ertz; think they'll disappoint even if taken in double digit rounds. I'd wait for them to get picked, then target one or more of Dwayne Allen/Martellus Bennett/Zach Miller/Charles Clay. Love them as TE fliers with TE1 upside. I'm probably avoiding other guys like Eric Ebron/ASJ/Jason Witten/Will Tye. I can see the arguments for Ebron/Tye but I'm disinclined to believe in their upside. Antonio Gates is old reliable and worth taking if he drops too far but age is catching up to him and I like to look at younger players. I also believe Jordan Cameron is still worth keeping in mind as a sleeper depending on what we hear out of OTAs and camp. I like Adam Gase as a coach and think he can work his TE into his weekly game plans again. This is way too much about tight ends in May but I'm really bored and it's my day off.
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May 31, 2016 04:09
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RVProfootballer posted:You're legit crazy to have Clay and especially Bennett over that whole tier that you're avoiding. I guess maybe Witten if you're convinced he's going to turn to dust this season, but I have no idea how you can look at Clay and the Pats' TE2 and like them as higher upside fliers than the others. Re: Clay I just think he's an underrated player. He's a well-rounded TE. Dealt with injuries last year but he's still a good passcatcher. And entering 2016, the Bills still don't have many targets in the passing game. Watkins is recovering from foot surgery and Robert Woods isn't one of the better #2s in the league. Rex and his staff wanted Clay on this team so I think they could view him as an underutilized asset going into this second year and he could become a bigger factor in the passing game. Not one of my favorite late round targets, but I do think he could surprise this year. Re: Bennett As a Pats fan looking at their offense, I could easily see Bennett carving out a sizeable role. Gronk is the obvious top dog but Edelman/Amendola are both recovering from surgeries this offseason. Their WR corps is basically just them plus Chris Hogan rotating around while a rookie, Malcolm Mitchell, breaks in as the X receiver. Basically I think Dion Lewis and Bennett will be the next options where Brady gets creative in terms of creating one-on-one mismatches anywhere he wants. And Bennett is the healthiest of the group outside of Gronk right now. Back in 2011 when the Pats had Gronk and Hernandez, they ended the year as TE1 and TE3 (in 14 games) and ran two TE sets I think it was 55% of the time. The Pats are still going to run two TE sets probably something like 45% of the time this year so I think there's plenty of room for Bennett to get his numbers. Doesn't have to be TE3 but TE6-8 wouldn't surprise me. And then if Edelman gets hurt, his role in the middle of the field ought to increase. If Gronk gets hurt, his value skyrockets to every week top three play.
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May 31, 2016 06:07
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Tye put up 34-400-3 in 8 games as starter (that is, not a whole lot worse than Clay in 13 games). Your rankings of a few guys just confuse me so much, haha. Allen and Miller I'm fine with, good dart throws imo.
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Why do people believe that the Jaguars passing offense won't regress this year? I have trouble buying that Hurns, or even Robinson, will repeat last year's numbers. The Jaguars were 9th as a team in red zone opportunities per game, but 19th overall in terms of yards/drive and red zone scoring efficiency. Looks prime for regression, especially touchdowns, to me. Also, Dion Lewis is a total loving boss and, if healthy, will repeat his performance from last year. Belichick and Brady loved what he could do for that offense and he was making dudes whiff in space constantly.
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Jun 7, 2016 11:33
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RVProfootballer posted:Sweet, good info. And yeah, I want to have some piece of a Chip Kelly team, but beyond Hyde (probably), I have no idea what piece. I felt like Kaep probably would win out if he gets healthy, and Torrey Smith might be kinda boom/bust but get a good number of targets. If Torrey Smith can't fit Chip's ideal WR1 mold, I'm buying on Bruce Ellington and TE Vance McDonald since they're so cheap in drafts. Elllington could be an interesting slot WR in Chip's offense and McDonald could be a nice flier in another weak year for TEs. He was a useful streamer at the end of last year and should pick up where he left off with Gabbert. I think Gabbert wins that job as making the quick and routine reads will matter more to Chip Kelly and Kaep was literally the worst at that in 2015.
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Jun 12, 2016 13:46
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I'd take ODB over AB without a second thought. ODB is a HOF-level talent constantly making sick plays and his best football is still to come. I absolutely believe his ceiling is higher than AB's. And he's insanely entertaining to watch and root for. Plus, I get to invoke Ol Dirty Bastard references constantly when he's on my teams. He's my #1 player going into this season.
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Jun 15, 2016 18:09
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MrSargent posted:ODB is a great player, and I don't outright disagree that his ceiling could be higher, but I don't think you are giving enough credit to AB84. Brown is just as much of a HoF talent as ODB, even moreso I would say because he has maintained an extremely high level of play for longer. Brown has more yards/catches in each of the last 3 years and it isn't even close. Their TD production is pretty even, with Beckham leading by 2 over the last 2 years. Tiptoes fucked around with this message at 19:16 on Jun 15, 2016 |
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Jun 15, 2016 19:13
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gtkor posted:PPR probably matters there a bit. If it is a non PPR league, I think the whole OBJ is ahead of AB84 is a lot more understandable (even if i'd still go with AB). I am having a hard time seeing why anyone is "without a second thought" ahead of a guy who is probably going to catch 100 passes a year, while putting up yards and TDs at a high level. Plus Return to the 36 Chambers is literally one of my favorite albums of all time.
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Jun 15, 2016 19:35
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ODB is going to be one of the best of all time and y'all fuckers better respect. AB is having his 15 minutes of fame at the moment but this is ODB's game from now on.
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Jun 15, 2016 19:42
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MrSargent posted:I think its really dumb comparing these two players as rookies. Some players take more time to develop and settle in than others. Brown had Mike Wallace, Hines Ward, and Heath Miller ahead of him when he came in as a rookie. ODB had 0 competition. I'm not going to go into more because the situations are completely different and comparing them is dumb because it has little to no bearing on where they are at now in their careers. You are right that I didn't account for ODB playing less games than Brown when comparing Touchdowns. The difference still wasn't enough to make up for the catches/yards that Brown gets. Essentially what you are doing is banking that the next year will be a huge step forward for ODB because that is the only way he can match Brown's current production, which I don't think has seen its peak yet. Antonio Brown is already a fantasy god (20 points/game average last year) and has been for the last 2 seasons. I don't have any specific hate for Antonio Brown. But it's REALLY hard to three-peat as WR1. Kings can't reign forever. Fantasy football is just a little too chaotic like that. The biggest difference maker is usually injuries though and it wouldn't surprise if the Steelers got bit by that bug again. There's a legitimate risk at the QB position with Big Ben getting beat up all the time. And Brown's own workload gets him hit plenty by defenders. After a few years of that, poo poo can start to takes its toll. Calvin was a big boy but the game still took it out on him. Brown is a lot smaller than most WR1 archetypes and while it hasn't slowed him down yet, it's still a concern to me. Especially if the Bengals keep head-hunting. But that's awful tempting, since all you have to do is take Brown out of the picture and the Steelers offense changes dramatically.
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Jun 15, 2016 22:06
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Metapod posted:The Tennessee wr order should not be taken seriously until preseason because no one loving knows Mike Mularkey posted:"I am hoping they are taking it personal, and they are going to come back in here in better shape, and better prepared and healthy and ready to go out of the gate,’’ Mularkey said when asked about Green-Beckman and Hunter. “(We want to see that) from the first practice on.” Let's see what happens when the pads come on first. The rookie is running against air in non-contact practices at the moment and we know DGB's athleticism can play at the NFL level so I'm still inclined to buy him as a breakout candidate. If DGB's stock is trending downward though, it'll probably be Rishard Matthews who trends up.
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Jun 17, 2016 02:40
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Are you not a believer in Mularkey's "exotic smashmouth" offense?  I get the feeling he's only around cause they didn't really like the crop of available coaching candidates and are still going to replace him eventually with a coach they fully endorse. Hopefully it doesn't hurt Mariota but I think he just needs to stay healthy and get his reps on the field and he ought to be fine.
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Jun 17, 2016 05:00
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Leperflesh posted:The odds of someone repeating three times are long, if you are predicting the future. But if you already have two #1s and they're in the past, the odds of them being #1 in the future are unaffected by the past: they're the same as if you had no past data. E.g., you're invoking the gambler's fallacy. My big problem with expecting Brown to repeat his numbers is that his target numbers are ridiculous. 193 targets last year, 181 in 2014. Target numbers are increasing for WRs since this is a new era for passing offenses, but still consistently seeing 180 targets is really loving hard since a number of things have to break right for such a workload to last all season. Prior to 2012, you just didn't see players with these kind of target numbers. And in 2012 where three guys exceeded 190 targets (Calvin, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Marshall), none came close to that mark in 2013. Last year saw three guys exceed 190 targets (Julio had 203 and Hopkins had 192) and I again expect those numbers to go down this year. Drop his targets down to a more reasonable 166 like in 2013 and Brown is still a top 3 receiver, but not the sure thing #1 pick.
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Jun 18, 2016 17:16
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Veritek83 posted:If anything, I think AB getting closer to 180-190 is more plausible than not this year, due to the Bryant suspension, Heath Miller retiring and the prospect that Roethlisberger stays healthy or healthier than last year. What if Le'Veon Bell stays healthy and sees another 104 targets like he did in 2014? DWill ain't a slouch in the passing game either so RB targets could be in the 120+ range combined. They only had 73 targets last year so that's one change we can expect if Bell stays upright. What if Big Ben doesn't stay healthy? Dude is in his 30s but still plays a very physical style of football. He's definitely one of the higher injury risks at QB. What if Brown doesn't stay healthy? He's not injury prone, I know, but all it takes is one bad hit. What if the constant double teams leads to a defender falling on his ankle? Or he takes a bad hit to the dome and we have to start worrying about concussions? Or maybe Marvin Lewis takes Vontaze Burfict aside and tells him to sweep the leg? There are plenty of reasons to think Brown's target share of 33% last year is going to go down and I think viewing his situation critically rather than just penciling him as the number one player in June is a worthy intellectual exercise.
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Jun 18, 2016 18:40
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RVProfootballer posted:Sure, but I'm much more worried about Beckham and Hopkins seeing a decline in targets due to improved supporting cast than Brown and Julio. If anything, this concern with respect to the top receivers makes Brown an easier first pick for me. quote:He played 16 games in 2013 and 2014, has averaged 14.3 games played each season for his career, and has never missed more than 4 in a season. I don't think you're at all right that he's a high injury risk amongst QBs, but if you want to do the same sort of thing for other QBs in the league, I'm happy to be proven wrong. quote:How is this at all a specific concern for Brown that you don't also have for the other superstar WRs? Are you saying Brown is more likely to be targeted than Beckham or Julio or Hopkins? Why?
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Jun 18, 2016 19:43
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Metapod posted:Shepherd is really drat good and is going to command more targets than Reuben what route am I supposed to run Randle
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Jun 18, 2016 20:23
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Spoeank posted:The only issue with Harmon's methodology is that the Seahawks are probably going to be passing way, way, way, way, way, way way way waywaywayway less than the "oh poo poo down 30" Jags. If you look at the pace Russell Wilson was on in the second half of last year, things get REAL interesting. He was as hot as Cam down the stretch, averaging 3 passing TDs a game.  Lockett's improvement in the second half was notable as well.  His TD scoring potential is legit given Wilson's great deep ball. A bump in targets in his second year could produce some real interesting results. FFC has him as a borderline 7th/8th rounder right now and MFL10 data has him as a mid-6th round pick. That's not really a bargain for Seattle's WR2 but I don't expect his ADP to rise as high as Allen Robinson's last year. I don't think the narrative will be there to push Lockett into the 5th rounds in normal leagues unless he seriously impresses in the preseason. But I could see him settling around the same draft tier as John Brown occupied going into last year's drafts. I think I'm buying at that price, depending on who else is on the board. And I'd probably take him before most rookie WRs. I'm definitely buying in dynasty as I do believe he'll pass Doug Baldwin as WR1 eventually but probably not this year.
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Jun 22, 2016 00:22
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I'd rather have #6 than #3 for strategic purposes. There's better value in the top half of the second round than the bottom half/top of the third, I feel. Although if I can get ODB at #3, I do that every time, but that's just me.
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Jun 24, 2016 01:59
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I'm bored. Someone convince me that DeAndre Washington isn't one of the best sleeper RBs available late in drafts this year. I think I'm already sold on the idea that he'll be a steal.
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Jun 25, 2016 02:44
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I'm trying not to give him a MJD comp cause Jack Del Rio is his coach but it's REALLY hard not to when looking at the metrics.pre:DeAndre Washington Maurice Jones-Drew Height 5'8" 5'7" Weight (Combine) 204 lbs 207 lbs 40-yard Dash 4.49s 4.39s Vertical Jump 34.5" 36" Broad Jump 118" 116" 3-Cone Drill 7.03s 7.08s 20-yard Shuttle 4.20s 4.41s Bench Press 24 reps 18 reps Tiptoes fucked around with this message at 03:36 on Jun 25, 2016 |
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Jun 25, 2016 03:33
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RVProfootballer posted:I'm good with that. Other possibilities: Devontae Booker, AlfMo or DMC if he gets healthy, Paul Perkins, Charles Sims (!; is he a sleeper?), Alex Collins, not in that order
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Jun 25, 2016 09:48
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Spoeank posted:Part Two: NFC East breakdown However... I cannot stop laughing at how Randle is the accompanying picture for the article but a forgotten man when the Eagles are brought up. It's very fitting. gently caress Rueben Randle.
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Jun 29, 2016 03:05
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I can't even trust Jordan Matthews at his current mid-round ADP anymore than their other guys. He's their "#1" but all of his production comes out of the slot and I would guess they're going to use 3 WR formations a lot less than Chip Kelly did.
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Jun 29, 2016 04:48
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Papes posted:I'm pretty sure a guy who clowned the SEC from the X will be better suited to play on the outside than nelson agholor and josh huff. ""Philadelphia Inquirer" posted:THIS WAS DOUG Pederson in March when asked about using wide receiver Jordan Matthews less in the slot and more on the outside: "I think he can play outside. I'm going to look at him outside as we go through this spring. With his skill set, I think he can play both (inside and outside)."
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Jul 2, 2016 19:18
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Spoeank posted:Please note I don't think DGB is trash just that he may have Christine Michael Disease aka Just Doesn't Get It Syndrome
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Jul 13, 2016 23:20
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If coaches are putting a rookie out there for 50 snaps a game, then he isn't a C-Mike shithead who couldn't even get on the field until his reunion with the Seahawks. He may be a flawed player but he GETS football. He just needs to get better at it, like pretty much every rookie player. drat you are harsh on a dude who was definitely not the worst rookie ever.
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Jul 14, 2016 01:51
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But what if DGB
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Jul 14, 2016 03:14
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Oh I'd take several guys before DGB at his 9th round ADP. Jamison Crowder and Mike Thomas are two youngsters I like more. Kamar Aiken too, although I expect his ADP to move above the 9th before drafts but if it does, change it to V-Jax then who can also be had after DGB. Could even take Rishard Matthews in the last round and probably outproduce DGB. But I'm always going to target dudes like DGB somewhere in drafts who have the physical profile of WR1s and just need to make that jump to the next level.
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Jul 14, 2016 06:33
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Benne posted:I'm having a hard time ranking Jeremy Hill right now. He was great in 2014 and kinda garbage last year, but still had 11 touchdowns. The running game lost Hue Jackson, but at the same time Gio has decisively proven that he's a COP flex back at best. Frank Gore is probably a safer pick in the same range while carrying a similar upside but I'd likely take him over the Latavius Murray/Matt Jones/Jay Ajayi/Jeremy Langford tier.
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Jul 15, 2016 03:46
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