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IED enthusiast
Nov 6, 2006

Love is Packed in Cylinders and Smells Like Ammonium Nitrate.
Buyin for 60USD to 1/2 and plan to play a single orbit to get the day on my player card after a show with my old lady.

Waiting for the blind I witness the guy two seats to my left call off like 60USD to a river straight that was made by the biggest chip stack by 47off in the HiJack and then grumble to himself about not raising preflop from early position and muck. There was one overcard on the board.

I wake up on my second hand in the SB (58USD) with JhJc, UTG (200USD) and the BTN (100USD) both limp and the pot is 7USD.

I raise 16USD and the BTN (an elderly lady) calls.

The pot is 38USD.

Flop comes 9s, 3d, Qh.

My action (42USD)

Whatdo?

IED enthusiast fucked around with this message at 18:59 on Feb 19, 2017

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JaySB
Nov 16, 2006



Bet $20

IED enthusiast
Nov 6, 2006

Love is Packed in Cylinders and Smells Like Ammonium Nitrate.

JaySB posted:

Bet $20

This happens.

BTN takes about 15 seconds and calls. (Note I can't really see the button, I am one seat left of the dealer, I jumped into the open seat because the blinds were nearly there).

Turn 5c.

My action (22USD)

IED enthusiast fucked around with this message at 20:04 on Feb 19, 2017

JaySB
Nov 16, 2006



I was kidding, you should be prepared to stop and go given that you have basically a pot sized bet on the flop.

As played you're still all in.

raton
Jul 28, 2003

by FactsAreUseless
Bad flop against that player IMO, hard to get worse to call, hard to get better to fold. I think of you push she folds everything JJ or worse almost all of the time.

Play is image dependent here. It's bad to assume that she has you beat as she rarely does. So you do want money in overall here. There are a ton of A and Ks in her range and giving a free card to ~ six outs isn't great. I think the best option is to push flop and just hope she doesn't have a Q and can't fold some nonset pair, be satisfied with taking down your little pot 80% of the time. If you had been very active and she didn't like you this could be a great spot to have a chance to get a call from worse but I doubt that was the case given your stack/wording.

Other option is hope for check-check and ship turns that aren't A or K to try to get more calls but honestly I don't give an old lady at those stakes credit for "he didn't bet flop so his range is wider so I think my eights are good here so I call" so really all you're doing is giving her a draw that she'll only pay on if she hits. Especially given how people like that play in torneys. Of course if you do this and she calls with a Q someone at the table is going to think "what else could she have called with what a bad bet" but you don't have a good bet, a fold is crazy right now, and checking is also bad.

As played ship turn and hope she doesn't aw-shucks you with JQ/QT/KQ.

raton fucked around with this message at 22:44 on Feb 19, 2017

Imaduck
Apr 16, 2007

the magnetorotational instability turns me on
I agree with the others; unless you really know the other player, it's hard to make an argument for doing anything other than shoving there. The vast majority of the time you're good, you can get called by worse hands, and your hand is vulnerable to a lot of turns.

IED enthusiast
Nov 6, 2006

Love is Packed in Cylinders and Smells Like Ammonium Nitrate.

Sheep-Goats posted:

As played ship turn and hope she doesn't aw-shucks you with JQ/QT/KQ.

Imaduck posted:

I agree with the others; unless you really know the other player, it's hard to make an argument for doing anything other than shoving there. The vast majority of the time you're good, you can get called by worse hands, and your hand is vulnerable to a lot of turns.

JaySB posted:

I was kidding, you should be prepared to stop and go given that you have basically a pot sized bet on the flop.

As played you're still all in.

So betting 20usd was a bit of knee jerk reaction, I had already tossed the chips in before I reconsidered my tiny tiny stack.

As played I do push on the turn. Our villain looks me up with QTo and the river does not save me (Kd).

I agree with stop and go line. Also I don't think there is any version of this hand where I get top pair to fold without a low unpaired kicker.

How about this tournament hand from today.

I have 28000 chips in the big blind at 1200 with 100 antes. Four people limp, EP, HJ and Cutoff for 1200 each, SB folds and I check with 9d,6s.

There is 5200ish in the pot.

EP 32000

HJ 12000

CO 15000

BB 26800 (Hero)

Flop comes

9h, 6c, 7d.

My action.

IED enthusiast fucked around with this message at 17:22 on Feb 21, 2017

raton
Jul 28, 2003

by FactsAreUseless
SPR is awkward there. If there is anyone who bets behind me I'd probably go for a c/r -> ship all non 8 turns. Given proflop play, number in, and that you remove so many bettor combos I think it's a lower than usual chance you get any action behind. Betting small (to induce a raise) has the same problem and is probably too fancy for a tournament spot like this anyway. I guess nearpot flop (two callers would be baus) / nearpot non-8 turn / think about river if it gets there. I would not be thrilled about an A on the turn either.

I'm not very confident about this line. Doing what I said to do and getting raised is a little gross but M is like 14 or something so you can't really nitlord here. I guess you just kinda have to go "I won the lotto I think?" and roll with it.

Imaduck
Apr 16, 2007

the magnetorotational instability turns me on
I agree again. Seems like check raise is a pretty standard play. If it checks around, bet out on most, if not all, turns.

If the players behind you are super nitty and will never bet anything, then you should probably bet out here, but that's rare. On the other hand, if there are players behind you that will bet most of the time when checked to if they have overcards, then you absolutely have to check to induce.

raton
Jul 28, 2003

by FactsAreUseless

Imaduck posted:

I agree again. Seems like check raise is a pretty standard play. If it checks around, bet out on most, if not all, turns.

If the players behind you are super nitty and will never bet anything, then you should probably bet out here, but that's rare. On the other hand, if there are players behind you that will bet most of the time when checked to if they have overcards, then you absolutely have to check to induce.

For some reason I thought this was live, don't know why. If it's online c/r all day expecting a call / ship turn.

IED enthusiast
Nov 6, 2006

Love is Packed in Cylinders and Smells Like Ammonium Nitrate.

Sheep-Goats posted:

For some reason I thought this was live, don't know why. If it's online c/r all day expecting a call / ship turn.

In fact, this was a live event.

$42 + $18 Foxwhoops daily event (gotta love live rake). 100 entries, we are down to 7 tables, 8 handed, there are approximately a million chips on the floor.

Imaduck posted:

On the other hand, if there are players behind you that will bet most of the time when checked to if they have overcards, then you absolutely have to check to induce.

This is great advice, and something that is relatively easy to keep track of live. I feel like intuition is actually hard earned live, online you can just look at the stats, but intuiting VPIP and AF live requires a good amount of focus unless someone is betting every hand or folding their blind to every raise. I tend to get wrapped up in the most basic equity calculations whenever I am involved in a live hand. Had I been keeping this in mind more actively I would have been better in several spots yesterday, both when I was ahead and when I was behind.

No one folds or bets anything at this particular table so I open with 4200, EP calls, all other players fold and we are heads up.

EP 27800

BB 22600 (Hero)

Turn Qh.

Board

9h, 6c, 7d, Qh.

My action

IED enthusiast fucked around with this message at 17:47 on Feb 21, 2017

raton
Jul 28, 2003

by FactsAreUseless
Great card for us there's so much of his range that that gives false hope to. Getting a little wet for trying "oh I hate that I'm gonna check to you" and getting one more half pot bluff of value from him, especially given they're playing it exactly like a draw rn. I think we just push.

I doubt there's much EV difference between pushing now (to kill draws and get max value from QX sometimes) vs softer lines in hopes of letting them hang on a Q or possibly getting there with hearts/JT etc due to the relative likelihoods of those holdings. It's bad policy to get as invested as we are now and then to start looking for exits all the time too and I don't think this is an extraordinary circumstance. Maybe it's worth considering your table image here to pick between them but I think lots of people could see a turn shove as a bad barrel in this hand and limp/bet/bet shouldn't be so scary that we never get paid especially given stuff like QT/JT is all over their range.

raton fucked around with this message at 18:41 on Feb 21, 2017

IED enthusiast
Nov 6, 2006

Love is Packed in Cylinders and Smells Like Ammonium Nitrate.

Sheep-Goats posted:

Great card for us there's so much of his range that that gives false hope to. Getting a little wet for trying "oh I hate that I'm gonna check to you" and getting one more half pot bluff of value from him, especially given they're playing it exactly like a draw rn. I think we just push.

I doubt there's much EV difference between pushing now (to kill draws and get max value from QX sometimes) vs softer lines in hopes of letting them hang on a Q or possibly getting there with hearts/JT etc due to the relative likelihoods of those holdings. It's bad policy to get as invested as we are now and then to start looking for exits all the time too and I don't think this is an extraordinary circumstance. Maybe it's worth considering your table image here to pick between them but I think lots of people could see a turn shove as a bad barrel in this hand and limp/bet/bet shouldn't be so scary that we never get paid especially given stuff like QT/JT is all over their range.

So indeed I ship it here, and I'm looked up with Qd, 8h and he smashes a third Queen on the river and I'm on the rail.

In other news I left here and sat down at 2/5 with 200USD and woke up with Queens and shipped it against a raise to 40 two calls and a reraise to 125 and got called down by JQd and KK and smashed the last Queen in the deck on a paired and flushed board for a nice 800USD pot.

Kings also lost the sidepot to JQ when JQ hit the diamond flush.

So the QQQ swing karma came back to me haha.

Also I will never play 500NL, those guys are crazy.

IED enthusiast fucked around with this message at 22:13 on Feb 24, 2017

JaySB
Nov 16, 2006



Don't buy into live cash games with 40bb

barnold
Dec 16, 2011


what do u do when yuo're born to play fps? guess there's nothing left to do but play fps. boom headshot
lost QQQJ to QQQK last night and it hurts my soul

IED enthusiast
Nov 6, 2006

Love is Packed in Cylinders and Smells Like Ammonium Nitrate.
I'm interested in learning Limit Hold'em more seriously. I have Elements, SS1&2, SSHE, HEPoker for Advanced Players, Weighing the Odds, Mathematics of Poker, Winning in Tough Hold'em Games, and Internet Texas Hold'em. I bought these for an old roomie who was interested in limit figuring I'd read them someday. Today is that day, I have gotten through Elements LHE chapter, SS1/2 LHE chapters, SSHE and HEPfAP, I'm just now cracking open Winning in Tough Hold'em Games. At the suggestion of some rando limit thread I ordered Cooke Real Poker I & II, and Hold'em on the Come. RPII and HOTC have arrived, I'm still waiting on RPI.

Does anyone have a suggestion on what order to read these, also could you point me at some good online limit resources (other than 2+2 forums obv)?

From what I can tell the ideal order seems to be:

Maybe start with Elements LHE chapter,

Hold'em Poker (I thought this wouldn't be necessary but you're calculating things in LHE like gutshots for two streets, especially against small stakes players that makes revisiting all drawing scenarios worth rereading, some of the basic stuff on hand hierarchy you can glaze over if you are not a poker beginner).

Super System 1&2 LHE chapters (the key thing I'm recalling from here now is that K72 and a few similar hands cannot make anything but a backdoor straight).

Small Stakes Hold'em (this is literally gold, buy this book, wear out the bindings and buy it again).

Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players

Then I'm unsure, maybe Winning in Tough Hold'em Games before the others as it appears to be the best book on the subject according to 2+2 threads.

Sheep-Goats posted:

I was a bartender before and I apologize to the dealers out there but tipping can be a real problem for staying +EV if you're playing 1/2 or 2/4. At those stakes I only generally tip when I win a a ~100 BB pot or greater and I tip one dollar. I will occasionally tip if I've won a bunch of smaller pots and feel bad about it. If the table goes short handed (either six or five or less, depends on the place) you can request a rake reduction from the dealer (who will ask the floor). I always tip a dollar on being granted the reduction.

Is it pointless to play 2/4 limit (live) to learn with 4USD rake structure? $1 Flop, $1 at $10, $1 at $20, and $1 at $40?

Limit appears to swing a lot from hand to hand, but it doesn't really have an affect on the bankroll as long as you play correctly from what I can tell.

Turdsdown Tom posted:

lost QQQJ to QQQK last night and it hurts my soul

JaySB posted:

Don't buy into live cash games with 40bb

I know, I thought it was 1/2, and I had another 300 in my pocket. Looked at the panel and saw the $200 number, didn't realize it was the minbuy haha. I was like, I always buyin for 200. The ridiculous chip castles should have been a big hint.

After that pot all the 2/5 regs were like, is this your first time at 2/5? you should stay a while now that you have a buyin or two.

bengy81 posted:

Poker books are expensive...

Pretty much every poker book printed before 2013 is about 3usd on half.com with 3-4USD media mail fee/book. This should soften the blow a bit.

The newer books are probably cheapest if bought as an e-book in most cases, check Amazon before B&N, (SSNLHE is like 10usd as an e-book and 35USD as a paperback).

If you happen to attend/have an affiliation to a top Uni through a friend or family member, they will often order/purchase any book for their library if you can come up with anything that sounds like an academic interest.

IED enthusiast fucked around with this message at 20:10 on Mar 4, 2017

IED enthusiast
Nov 6, 2006

Love is Packed in Cylinders and Smells Like Ammonium Nitrate.
Here is another live tournament hand I'm pretty much certain I misplayed.

I am BB with about 32,000 in chips. Blinds are 1,000 and 2,000 antes are 300.

UTG calls as do three seats near the button and the small blind. I check T8off and the flop comes.

3 suited Q J 9.

UTG bets the pot and everyone folds to me.

My action.


Also:

Anyone going to FW for their high hand promotion Monday?

IED enthusiast fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Mar 4, 2017

JaySB
Nov 16, 2006



All in.

bengy81
May 8, 2010

IED enthusiast posted:

Here is another live tournament hand I'm pretty much certain I misplayed.

I am BB with about 32,000 in chips. Blinds are 1,000 and 2,000 antes are 300.

UTG calls as do three seats near the button and the small blind. I check T8off and the flop comes.

3 suited Q J 9.

UTG bets the pot and everyone folds to me.

My action.


Also:

Anyone going to FW for their high hand promotion Monday?

What's UTG's stack size? Is limping standard at this point of the tournament? Do we have any history on villain?
Not trying to ask dick questions, I just don't get to play live very much, and I know live plays quite a bit different than online.

IED enthusiast
Nov 6, 2006

Love is Packed in Cylinders and Smells Like Ammonium Nitrate.

bengy81 posted:

What's UTG's stack size? Is limping standard at this point of the tournament? Do we have any history on villain?
Not trying to ask dick questions, I just don't get to play live very much, and I know live plays quite a bit different than online.

No that's my bad, UTG has me outstacked by three or four to one (he is one of the major tournament chip leaders at this point) and has been bullying the table since he landed there busting at least three players in about 10-20 orbits (I am clearly sitting in a very unfortunate seat). We are table 14 of maybe 20 remaining tables (tables break in descending order by number at this specific tournament, idk if all live tourneys do it this way but online ones seem not to do it this way). My stack is probably third largest at the table (second is not far off) but the blinds are raising somewhat aggressively at this point.

IED enthusiast fucked around with this message at 21:41 on Mar 4, 2017

bengy81
May 8, 2010
With your stack size I think you shove, unless you have some reason to believe he has a straight that can beat yours take the opportunity to double up.

JaySB
Nov 16, 2006



We loving have 16bb this is such a stupid question to pontificate about.

raton
Jul 28, 2003

by FactsAreUseless
Pretty sure calling looks even stronger than pushing there no matter how bad the players are and there are more cards that kill your action if you're playing the world's most timid table than get you paid anyway. You'd push with two pair here probably right? So push with the straight.

IED enthusiast
Nov 6, 2006

Love is Packed in Cylinders and Smells Like Ammonium Nitrate.

JaySB posted:

We loving have 16bb this is such a stupid question to pontificate about.

I do in fact push and run into KTo. I don't catch up.

My thinking was I have most of his range beat and he has been calling off other people with his bully stack with as little as an overpair. When he snap called I was hoping to run into two pair, or a set, or I guess literally any hand other than KT.

raton
Jul 28, 2003

by FactsAreUseless
It's not PLO KT is a small small part of what he donks. No worries.

Imaduck
Apr 16, 2007

the magnetorotational instability turns me on
Yeah, don't lose any sleep over it. You played it fine, and it's incredibly rare that you'd be beat.

JaySB
Nov 16, 2006



You played it fine. It was 3 of a suit on the flop right? He could be betting that with any pair and semi nutted flush combos, any combo draws, any 2 pair, any flush. You have 16bb and a straight, if you're ever folding it's pretty marginal. And it's never good to let them peel for cheap.

IED enthusiast
Nov 6, 2006

Love is Packed in Cylinders and Smells Like Ammonium Nitrate.

JaySB posted:

You played it fine. It was 3 of a suit on the flop right? He could be betting that with any pair and semi nutted flush combos, any combo draws, any 2 pair, any flush. You have 16bb and a straight, if you're ever folding it's pretty marginal. And it's never good to let them peel for cheap.

My wording was bad there, it was actually three off suit cards (3 suits would have been better, three suited kinda sounds like the flush was on the table).

Anyway it was a rainbow, but it is good to know that with a flush on the table this is still the correct play. I probably would have questioned whether I would ever get better to fold, and I guess yeah a low flush might fold here, and a four card flush draw is losing money by calling to jam as well, and I have any non flush draw and non set badly dominated.

bengy81 posted:

What's UTG's stack size? Is limping standard at this point of the tournament? Do we have any history on villain?
Not trying to ask dick questions, I just don't get to play live very much, and I know live plays quite a bit different than online.

This guys VPIP was probably over 40 if I had to guess.

Also from what I could tell the bubble was still like 2-3 hours away, (12ish levels).

In the spirit of speculation, should I play this the same if the bet were like 1/3-1/2 pot and the limpers call?

IED enthusiast fucked around with this message at 16:49 on Mar 5, 2017

raton
Jul 28, 2003

by FactsAreUseless
I thought you meant rainbow. I would probably fold a straight with that many people in to whoever bets. Maybe that's a little to kinda bad though.

I play a lot of PLO so I get muddled about things like that in HE. I folded JT on a JJ2 flop maybe a month ago because there was 4 way interest including from someone else with ~300BB behind on the flop -- turned out he had JT also of all things but I was very worried about being outkicked / 22 given the slightly odd multiway preflop action. Felt weak but PLO makes you believe that the nuts are out there often times.

JaySB
Nov 16, 2006



We are never folding the 2nd nuts for 16bb. Especially when looking at a pot of 2/3rds our stack.

I thought about it this morning and there may even be a case for shoving pre in some spots with our hand.

raton
Jul 28, 2003

by FactsAreUseless

JaySB posted:

We are never folding the 2nd nuts for 16bb. Especially when looking at a pot of 2/3rds our stack.

I thought about it this morning and there may even be a case for shoving pre in some spots with our hand.

Would you still shove in a four way if the flop were monotone? How deep do you need to be vs UTG before it's comfortable to say that a shove is idiotic given the same number behind &c.

JaySB
Nov 16, 2006



Sheep-Goats posted:

Would you still shove in a four way if the flop were monotone? How deep do you need to be vs UTG before it's comfortable to say that a shove is idiotic given the same number behind &c.

Based on original action, we check jammed right after UTG donked and it was folded to us right? Well we're never check/calling on any board with 16bb where we're almost always getting called for a pot that almost tripling our stack if we win. As I said, I'm fairly confident any pair and combo draws as well as sets play the same way so I'm basically never not getting it in.

On a rainbow board with the same action? I dunno, probably not jamming 30-40bb vs UTG limper. But I don't think I'm ever folding.

IED enthusiast
Nov 6, 2006

Love is Packed in Cylinders and Smells Like Ammonium Nitrate.
Other than say 2+2 forums, are there any good resources out there on ICM with regard to fixed limit tournaments? I'm guessing strategy has to be somewhat different than just FL HE or Omaha cash games, but not quite as aggressive as the Nash solutions for NLHE tourneys.

I played the HH promotion at FW yesterday, if you plan to attend one I suggest getting there a few hours early, 07:00 should do it, and lock up a seat well before the line starts, someone was waiting from 09:45am until 12:30 to get a seat at 2/4HE FL, and there were over 200 people waiting on 1/2 by noon. Every table was running downstairs by 15:00. I don't recommend playing 2/4 tho, they rake 3 dollars from the first 10 during the promotion instead of their usual structure. 1/2 has a similarly bewildering rake. I managed to net a decent return in spite of this, but I feel like EV can't be better than zero with rake that high at 2/4 or 1/2 when the pot doesn't break 10bb for limit or 30bb for NL.

It was really cool to see that many people playing though, I have renewed hope for the US poker economy.

IED enthusiast fucked around with this message at 23:44 on Mar 14, 2017

IED enthusiast
Nov 6, 2006

Love is Packed in Cylinders and Smells Like Ammonium Nitrate.
Prepping for some more tiny tourneys next week and I ran into another big blind special.

Blinds are 1000 and 2000 with 200 antes and I have just been moved to a new table, I look down at Jc, Qs with 65,000 chips in the BB and I am facing a minraise from MP (100,000 chips) a call from the button 190,000 chips and a fold from the small blind (every other seat is 40k chips or less and we are about 30 seats away from the bubble). I call for 2000 more and the flop comes...

Jh, 6s, 4d

My action.

Imaduck
Apr 16, 2007

the magnetorotational instability turns me on
Check with the intention of check-calling most action unless something really weird happens.

This the standard play, and you shouldn't deviate from it unless you know your opponents are playing in an incredibly strange manner and can justify a more profitable line. But again, it'd have to be a really abnormal situation for leading here to make sense.

Pryor on Fire
May 14, 2013

they don't know all alien abduction experiences can be explained by people thinking saving private ryan was a documentary

Naw, your hand is only getting worse. Lead out if you expect >50% of that leading to heads up on the turn, then it depends more on the opponent than your deteriorating hand . It's ok to fold sometimes if you get raised.

twodot
Aug 7, 2005

You are objectively correct that this person is dumb and has said dumb things
I don't understand check calling here. We've got like 13 M, a good hand that is unlikely to improve with more cards, the only thing I'm thinking about is whether I should muck this hand and wait for the bubble or over-bet.

Imaduck
Apr 16, 2007

the magnetorotational instability turns me on
A decent amount of the time, the PFR is going to continuation bet here with a worse hand. We want to get value from that hand, instead of giving away the strength of our hand and giving them an easy out with worse.

We're really not that afraid of turns and rivers here. There aren't many draws, and the only overcards that are bad for us are kings and aces, which show up relatively rarely, and hit our opponents' hands even more rarely.

Our hand has showdown value, so we're not really going to want to turn it into a bluff on later streets most of the time. We have a medium strength hand: we don't want to do anything that could make us risk an excessive amount of chips, and we want to get value from bluffs and missed draws.

The upsides to leading out:
+ Might fold out / charge aces and kings that would have stuck around if the PFR doesn't cbet
+ You can lead the turn instead of letting draws get a free card

The downsides to leading out:
- You're removing your ability for your opponent to bluff cbet
- You're opening yourself up to getting raised by worse hands and being forced to fold (or you bet-call, which means you're dumping money when your opponent has a better J, 2 pair, or a set)
- You're giving away your hand strength, because you're probably never balancing this with enough bluffs and draws to make it make sense
- If you're called, you're out of position. Many turns and rivers will be hard to play against an aggressive opponent, and you can end up in a big pot with a middling hand with no idea what to do.

The upsides seem too rare to outweigh the downsides here. Yes, sometimes people are going to outdraw you, but that's loving poker. In this instance, the cards and hands we're worried about are too rare to really be that concerned about it. Don't play scared poker.

raton
Jul 28, 2003

by FactsAreUseless

twodot posted:

I don't understand check calling here. We've got like 13 M, a good hand that is unlikely to improve with more cards, the only thing I'm thinking about is whether I should muck this hand and wait for the bubble or over-bet.

Why do we want our hand to improve?

Anything that beats us beats us so badly that we'll ~never catch up and there exists not much in that category (softly played AA-QQ from MP, sets but not really JJ, extremely gross two pairs). The board is not coordinated. The only cards we fear are A or K but a lot of those are being held by our two villains.

I see this as time for value mode. There are appx 4 or 5 bad cards in the deck and only two draws at them and we would love to get paid two bets here in every case that one of those ~4.5 don't come out.

MP is likely to barrel. Check to him, let him bet. In fantasy land he leads and button calls and we can push for infinite EV that looks like a squeeze. In reality it goes check/MP bet/button fold/call, check through, lead river and get reluctant call from TT-99 most of the time. We need to shape him wide here and it sucks rear end being oop and trying to get value here because our risks are bad compared to what we'd get ip, but you can't try to play hot on this board, if you play JQ like that you're going to have to be -EV on it -- gently caress me or leave isn't a great way to play middling hits.

If this is a low limit table full of nits and we were on the bubble then you can consider something else but this is our chance to keep M healthy for a while longer. I just think it's not great to play this protectively instead of hopefully.

raton fucked around with this message at 20:05 on Mar 15, 2017

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twodot
Aug 7, 2005

You are objectively correct that this person is dumb and has said dumb things
Both of these posts seem predicated on MP being likely to bluff here, but I don't see what you think MP's plan is here. They weren't planning on taking it down pre-flop with a min-raise. There's a bunch (7 if they are playing with 10) of <10 M stacks on the table, I don't think their plan could have been "inflate the value of the pot, so that when I likely miss the flop, my likely out of position bluff continuation bet will be even more expensive than it would be otherwise, and it will be even more obvious that I'm making a continuation bet rather than a mediocre hand that happened to connect". I think it's likely they were either trying to induce a squeeze from the little stacks, or hoping a small stack would call and MP can push them out on the flop. That they wound up in a hand with the two biggest stacks was just an accident, and they either made something or are looking to get out. There's no reason to make the incredibly obvious continuation bet here against the two players that can actually afford to call unless you think you are actually good here. Which isn't to say it's impossible for MP to bet with a worse hand here, it's easy to see any Jx betting here AJ, KJ seem unlikely, 77-TT can bet here.

Also we don't know anything about the button, they could be on any sort of nonsense two pair draw, in position and with by far the biggest stack

I don't know the venue, maybe it's reasonable to expect people to make the most ham-fisted bluffs possible here.

twodot fucked around with this message at 21:04 on Mar 15, 2017

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