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Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Wrageowrapper posted:

So it apparently seems somewhat likely that Jacquie Lambie will not only retain her senate spot but may also pick up another seat under her party down here in Tassie. I don't want to be one of those people that begrudges the electorate for their decisions but I really begrudge the electorate for their decisions.

Given that the whole reason we are going to a DD is because the Coalition has spent the last three years complaining about the senate not rolling over and doing whatever the government says it's going to be hilarious if we end up with an even more diverse set of senators.

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Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Vladimir Poutine posted:

IIRC over 49.1% 2PP is the number the coalition have historically won elections with. It's been a while since I've seen the actual number so maybe the decimal point is slightly different but the actual point I'm making is that 50-50 or just under is definitely in the coalition's favour. But then again, I guess the trend against them could continue.

Barring some major event, I can't see Labor winning at this point. I actually expect them to win on the overall 2pp vote, but QLD is going to see the Coalition back in government.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


http://www.afr.com/real-estate/council-and-government-should-have-put-the-seawall-up-residents-20160607-gpdqmq

quote:

The owner of a Collaroy beachfront home devastated by the Sydney storm, Tony Cagorksi, blames the council and state government for not building a seawall to protect his home.

The flooring business owner, who saved for years to buy the six-bedroom house at 1130 Pittwater Road for $2.4 million last year, has been forced to abandon his home because its foundations are crumbling after being battered by the storm and a seven-metre king tide.
"The council should have put up the seawall and they didn't. They are bumbling bureaucrats," Mr Cagorksi said.

"I have just paid over $100,000 in stamp duty for the home I live in and my money is going to schools and everything."

Warringah Council said it was not its responsibility to put up the seawall and residents had opposed it in a 2014 planning exercise.

"The history of the seawall has been long. The community was opposed to it, and in the last LEP [local environmental plan] prohibited the seawall," Warringah Council general manager Mark Ferguson said at a press conference on Pittwater Road on Tuesday.

"Council has endorsed it since then but we need residential support, and it is about a financial support."

The decision not to build the seawall was due to its impact on the sand, council said.

"But it was the loud surfers and greenies who opposed and defeated the seawall plans," Mr Cagorksi said.

Since the storm, the council, which is providing temporary housing for the evacuated owners along Pittwater Road, has been in discussions with owners about resurrecting the seawall project. Most residents have declined to comment to the media.

While it would come at a cost to owners, the Northern Beaches council administrator Dick Persson said he had the support of about 25 affected residents to pay for a seawall with some even agreeing to a levy.

Council also said it was discussing with residents about demolishing the houses that are teetering on the edge but a final decision has not been made.

Mr Cagorksi said he was concerned his insurance would not cover his loss if his house is demolished, after his neighbour's claim to insurer Youi was rejected.

"We are going to fight it, through media, and goodwill, and try and get them to cover it," he said.

The State Emergency Services has been sandbagging Collaroy Beach, in anticipation of another king tide.

The worst affected area is Pittwater Road but further north, many backyards have been eroded.

I started bolding parts, but it just turned into one of those "bold the whole thing" exercises.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Those drat selfish greenies and surfers who didn't want an entire beach ruined so that developers could build on sand dunes.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


ewe2 posted:

The Oz is going Xenophon for slumlord offences


Haw. Only in writing. Then not writing at all. Notice the paranoia in the bolded bits, they're so transparent.

Theo was always a fun customer when I worked at the Adelaide Casino. He would wait until there was a table with thousands riding on each hand, then saunter up, open one box just to annoy them, and then saunter off after enraging them.

Great times.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006



It's interesting seeing how well that well vegetated patch up the top survived by comparison.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


cum_dumpster posted:

talk about your first world problems.

diddums

Almost like we live in a first world country.

Good internet infrastructure is incredibly important for the future of many of our industries, and for growing new industries in the future.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


cum_dumpster posted:

and anime david is whinging it'll be delivered by a few parties instead of one state owned company

so again, diddums

Problem with that is you end up with patchy networks that you can't rely on for full coverage. For lots of uses, the minimum service you can rely on someone to have sets the baseline for everyone.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


CrazyTolradi posted:

But seriously, apart from having a stupid edgy name, how does the Sex Party differ from the Greens policy wise?

At the last election, didn't the ASP preference One Nation ahead of the Greens?

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Family First with their plan to raise taxes for low income earners.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


bigis posted:

So does auspol think the greens primary vote will go up or down?

I'm assuming up, Up, UP!! :bitcoin:

In SA at least I think the Greens are going to be reduced to one senate seat. NXT is going to clean up.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Anidav posted:

If the Libs have a Primary Vote of 41 and the ALP 37. Who wins? Both primary votes are in the danger zone. Greens preferences bring the ALP to about 46-7%? Which means they need 4% from others to get past 50%.

Note you can't rely on Labor picking up preferences from Greens voters. Case in point my partners mother who last night mentioned how despite being a Liberal voter, is planning to vote Greens as first preference pretty much just due to asylum seeker policy, where both the Coalition and Labor have dropped the ball.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


in these troubled times, have a feel good video from history:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmVy0_DLsPM

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Ambo's because they risk getting run over by one.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Pollies are well known for living hard dangerous lives.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


On Triple J this morning. One caller paraphrased: "I support gay marriage as I have lots of gay friends, support protecting the environment, think there should be more funding for education as my best friend is a teacher and have always voted Labor. But for the past 18 months I've worked for a property developer so I'm voting Liberal as it's in my financial interest".

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006



I guess we know what's on the Chaser this week.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006



I hate this witch hunt kind of crap. Obviously investigate and analyse to see if anything could have been done differently, but unless anyone was grossly negligent it's way too easy to rely on hindsight.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


After the election if the LNP wins is he obligated to try and get the ABCC stuff through? What happens if it fails again?

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Tokamak posted:

Refer to every other broken promise a politician makes.

I just wasn't sure if there was actually some legal obligation to try and force it through as a consequence of a DD having been called.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Anidav posted:

My bet is with swining voters backing ALP thinking Shorten won't win like Brexit voters. ALP minority incoming if 2-3 greens and 2 IND. All the ALP has to do is hit 70-71?

Well I guess this settles it that we're gonna get a Coalition majority.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Anidav posted:

Sending prisoners to a rural location to do missions that earn citizenship points is literally an anime plot.

Or literally the history of Australia.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


The longer you stay on the line the less calls they are able to make.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


That's actually the first time someone has bought an av for me.

Funny imagining someone spent money to do it.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


I'm saying 7-8 majority for the Coalition in the house of reps and a massive mess for them to deal with in the senate.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Anidav posted:

Newspoll 50 50 basically with a .5 movement to the ALP

Come on QLD, don't let us down.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Count adjusted to 50/45/2 LNP/ALP/GRN, I think ABC is trying to get our hopes up before the imminent doom.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


That LNP total is way too high considering we don't have WA in play yet, we're gonna get a Coalition majority.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


NoNotTheMindProbe posted:

No. There's only 30 seats left on the ABC counter. They need 18 of them to take a 76 seat majority and we know there's 2 or 3 unclaimed seats that will probably go Green or NXT.

15 of those are WA seats, and 11-12 of those will go Coalition.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Xenophon looked terrified there at the question of how he will deal with the possibility of a hung parliament.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Graic Gabtar posted:

Lack of posts tells me you're all fapping to the ABC telecast.

I'm regretting doing Dry July.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Zenithe posted:

Have you considered Rye July?

There's a good 3 years to deal with this, no rush.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Buck Turgidson posted:

Anyone else think the patterning on the voting ballots looked kinda like cocks?

Yup!

My partner and I had a nice laugh about it while voting.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Jonah Galtberg posted:

Here's the thing though

If the Libs get 74 seats they're really likely to be the ones to form minority government

Do we really think the X-Factor is going to significantly moderate that government? I say no

They are going to find it really hard to get anything like a plebiscite passed though.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Jonah Galtberg posted:

lol if you think the alternative will be a straight up vote on gay marriage rather than doing nothing and maintaining the status quo

I hope it gets passed soon and actually think there will end up being a conscience vote. If there isn't though it's the type of thing that will really hurt them come the next election.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Lid posted:

Liberals need 76 to govern, 77 because of a speaker

Theyre looking at 74

So they need cross benchers

They get Katter so they get 75

The other two are nick xenophon team and cathy mcgowan and they need them both so unlikely to get both.

Labor cant get more than 75 no matter what.

I got confused when he said that. Isn't it incorrect?

There are 150 seats, so if you have 76 people on your side you end up with 75 voting for you, 1 speaker, and 74 against. Why would you need 77?

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Solemn Sloth posted:

I don't think there's any way that Labor knife Shorten. Then again, Labor are loving idiots.

If the Coalition ends up in minority government all they have to do is follow Abbotts post 2010 example and they'll walk in next time.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


NTRabbit posted:

I have a facebook 'friend' who is both a 'journalist' (who once complained Murdoch's very own Adelaide Advertiser was pro-Labour and that's why they wouldn't hire her), and a hardcore Liberal, who was doing the HTV thing for her personal hero, and I'm pretty sure unrequited love interest Chris Pyne, and the Lib staffers/vols on her posts think they've actually lost Grey to NXT despite what the ABC is saying

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-20499-183.htm

Can't see how NXT could get the numbers based on what has been counted up to now.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


NTRabbit posted:

Apparently the preferences are favouring NXT far more heavily than Green predicted, which he noted himself earlier, these Lib people think NXT is currently holding a narrow 2PP lead because of them, rather than losing 52-48 as the ABC has.

Let's hope.

The sounds from this Shorten speech aren't of a party whose lost, Labor know they just have to wait for the Coalition to implode.

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Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-20499.htm

With a significant chunk of the votes counted Labor is still ahead on the 2pp. If that holds I wouldn't have expected it.

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