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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Democrats are going to win back the Senate, it's almost inevitable. They might lose it in 2018 but they will win it this year.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:01
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I don't know why you guys are still freaking out about Trump though. Kasich is clearly priming himself for a comeback.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:04
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I don't know, I can see a scenario where Dems get major legislative gains. Keep in mind this is all pure speculation on my part and not backed up with any facts. Hillary's polling improves once the Dem primary ends, and despite a few Bernie holdouts, the party unites. Her polling gets even better as we approach November, while Trump's polling dips lower as he does *insert various Trump antics here*. We head into the election with Clinton polling something like 55/45 over Trump. People love to vote for a winner, so Dem turnout is high, but R turnout suffers due to not bothering to vote since it's obvious Trump will lose anyway. Also if the Supreme Court seat is still open (and I figure it will be), that drives even more D turnout. Dems get many legislative wins, many of which will be undone in 2018 because they never loving turnout for midterms.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:04
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Inferior Third Season posted:Yeah, I think the Dems still have a decent shot at the Senate, but I really don't think they're going to make major gains in the House, and that's enough to prevent Hillary from doing almost anything. A lot of it is going to depend on how well the Tea Party feels chastened by this election, and if GOPe elements in Congress decide to push back against the Freedom Caucus. Also, I still think that the Tea Party loses a lot of steam after Obama leaves office, I don't think that a woman can spark the same feelings of fear and resentment in white men that a black man does, even if that woman is HRC.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:04
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I am looking forward to the continued antics of candidate Trump. I don't have many republican friends, but I'm enjoying Trump break their brains. gently caress me daddy. gently caress me daddy, indeed. The best part is the continuing meltdown of David Brooks. I've been hate reading him since forever and I'm really enjoying his crisis of confidence.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:06
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RZA Encryption posted:Is there a map where Hillary hits 270 before the west coast polls close? 
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Jun 1, 2016 16:07
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RZA Encryption posted:Is there a map where Hillary hits 270 before the west coast polls close? In other words, where Hillary wins with at least 354 EVs? It looks like that probably has about a 20% chance of happening per Wang, but I don't know what that map would look like. A little toying around with 270 to Win suggests she has to run the gamut with swing states and also flip one "non-swing" state like Missouri or Georgia or Arizona.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:07
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Bel_Canto posted:Yes, please focus on trying to win Minnesota, California, and New York. Please pour Republican money into winning those states because that's not at all a complete waste of cash, no sir. Not only those, but Michigan too. I'm sure lots of people are willing to vote Republican after children were literally poisoned because of poor infrastructure upkeep.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:19
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Riosan posted:Not only those, but Michigan too. I'm sure lots of people are willing to vote Republican after children were literally poisoned because of poor infrastructure upkeep. I imagine so. Any number of them will probably fall for attempts to pin the whole thing on Obama's EPA.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:22
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SedanChair posted:I imagine so. Any number of them will probably fall for attempts to pin the whole thing on Obama's EPA. Not nearly enough. Combine that with Republicans openly saying that they would have let Detroit die. And according to that map Trump isnt going to put resources into North Carolina lol. So he's abandoning Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire to focus on New York and California. Well he's got this one in the bag!
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Jun 1, 2016 16:25
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SedanChair posted:I imagine so. Any number of them will probably fall for attempts to pin the whole thing on Obama's EPA. Yo, straight up heard this from a Michiganer.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:26
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DaveWoo posted:Yes, but wait until you see Trump's brilliant electoral strategy: This looks like redherring to me. And not even 15 states. He's pullin' an old Sun Tzu here.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:26
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Not nearly enough. Combine that with Republicans openly saying that they would have let Detroit die. Trump voters read that? Read anything?
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Jun 1, 2016 16:27
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SedanChair posted:Trump voters read that? Read anything? If it wasn't on
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Jun 1, 2016 16:31
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petit choux posted:This looks like redherring to me. And not even 15 states. He's pullin' an old Sun Tzu here. Literally everything coming out of the Trump camp from people who've bailed and who are still leaking poo poo say that Trump indeed believs in his own bullshit. Also that Trump still has no concept of a ground game or the logistical resources to actually run a general election. He's not playing 3 dimensional chess, he really has no idea what he's doing.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:32
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Literally everything coming out of the Trump camp from people who've bailed and who are still leaking poo poo say that Trump is indeed believing in his own bullshit. Also that Trump still has no concept of a ground game or the resources to actually run a general election. He's not playing 3 dimensional chess, he really has no idea what he's doing. On top of that he doesn't really believe in data or polling and has literally no fundraising operation in place (those take months to build in a good campaign) and the GOP is privately saying they're worried that he's going to suck up resources for down ballot races.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:33
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:He's not playing 3 dimensional chess, he really has no idea what he's doing. I feel like this needs to be included at the end of every single post in this thread.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:34
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Another Sikh shot dead, this time the owner of a gas station in Newark. No robbery, no signs of struggle, just the owner shot behind the counter.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:34
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:On top of that he doesn't really believe in data or polling and has literally no fundraising operation in place (those take months to build in a good campaign) and the GOP is privately saying they're worried that he's going to suck up resources for down ballot races. Also he continues to refuse to allow his own campaign team to vet him.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:34
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Also he continues to refuse to allow his own campaign team to vet him. They're too busy vetting veterans groups to make sure it's okay to give them money anyway.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:35
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:He's not playing 3 dimensional chess, he really has no idea what he's doing. Trump is playing a different game. He's here to win "Trump Points." I'm not going to try and define those, but I think we all have an intuitive idea of what's involved. At this time, winning the Presidency would be worth a lot of Trump Points, but his strategy is to win as many Trump Points as possible on the way there. zoux posted:They're too busy vetting veterans groups to make sure it's okay to give them money anyway. To be fair, this isn't actually a terrible policy. There are some ultra sketchy veterans groups.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:46
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Former Trump University Workers Call the School a ‘Lie’ and a ‘Scheme’ in Testimonyquote:In blunt testimony revealed on Tuesday, former managers of Trump University, the for-profit school started by Donald J. Trump, portray it as an unscrupulous business that relied on high-pressure sales tactics, employed unqualified instructors, made deceptive claims and exploited vulnerable students willing to pay tens of thousands for Mr. Trump’s insights. Well, color me shocked.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:53
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Are those workers Mexican? I don't know their heritage, I'm just asking questions.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:54
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WampaLord posted:I don't know, I can see a scenario where Dems get major legislative gains. Keep in mind this is all pure speculation on my part and not backed up with any facts. The Democrats are not going to take the House so these legislative "wins" won't change much. Moderate house republicans will continue to have no incentive to co-operate with house democrats and a lot to lose if they're perceived as a RINO. The tea party faction will remain ideologically opposed to passing anything. Only absolutely necessary legislation gets passed. We'll probably see another debt limit crisis in 2017, something to look forward to. This is the Madisonian system working as designed. This is actually what it's supposed to look like, endless gridlock between the houses and Presidency so as to limit federal excesses or something. The idiot founders thought it would be a great system and Americans are stuck with it forever. zoux posted:A lot of it is going to depend on how well the Tea Party feels chastened by this election, and if GOPe elements in Congress decide to push back against the Freedom Caucus. It will be interesting to see how the tea party evolves over the next few years. I believe their popularity is driven in large part by the grievances of aging white non-college educated males, and it doesn't look like life is going to get any better for them anytime soon ie globalization isn't going anywhere. Despite their best efforts this group is not dying fast enough for Hillary to have a chance to do anything, and we'll likely see the impact of the tea party / alt-right / Trumpentariat persist on the national level for a while longer before becoming demographically irrelevant.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:55
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Phone posted:Are those workers Mexican? I don't know their heritage, I'm just asking questions. If they are, it's great.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:55
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Luigi Thirty posted:Another Sikh shot dead, this time the owner of a gas station in Newark. No robbery, no signs of struggle, just the owner shot behind the counter. Countdown to Alex Jones saying it's a false flag by muslims to convince Sikhs to join their jihaddfj,yrhfgx,mhgf Real talk: I own the second season of  . In it, a muslim who's as white as anybody else in the show helping/working for the CTU has the evidence that will stop The Bad poo poo on a USB stick.There's a scene where, because Islamophobia is at it's height; a gang of yahoos kills him/beats him badly (I honestly don't remember, because that's when I quit the show forever, because everything that ever happens when Sutherland isn't on screen just felt contrived to Hell)- and the evidence is lost and The Bad poo poo succeeds. I quit watching , because I never thought Americans would ever do this for literally ZERO loving REASON other than a person's looks fitting their prejudiced image of an existential threat to them and their country.And it's loving happening for real. 
Mister Facetious fucked around with this message at 17:00 on Jun 1, 2016 |
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Jun 1, 2016 16:56
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Dr. Arbitrary posted:Trump is playing a different game. He's here to win "Trump Points." I'm not going to try and define those, but I think we all have an intuitive idea of what's involved. At this time, winning the Presidency would be worth a lot of Trump Points, but his strategy is to win as many Trump Points as possible on the way there. Veterans Affairs is like a honeypot to grifters who also happen to be veterans, or who pretend to be. That's a pretty big problem for them, always has been. Like every other US Federal agency, there's developed an ecosystem around it, many of them parasites and saprophytes.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:56
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Nocturtle posted:The Democrats are not going to take the House so these legislative "wins" won't change much. Moderate house republicans will continue to have no incentive to co-operate with house democrats and a lot to lose if they're perceived as a RINO. The tea party faction will remain ideologically opposed to passing anything. Only absolutely necessary legislation gets passed. We'll probably see another debt limit crisis in 2017, something to look forward to. Trump losing is basically going to signal the end of Paul Ryan's career because they're going to RINO the hell out of him.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:57
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petit choux posted:Veterans Affairs is like a honeypot to grifters who also happen to be veterans, or who pretend to be. That's a pretty big problem for them, always has been. Like every other US Federal agency, there's developed an ecosystem around it, many of them parasites and saprophytes. The joke is that Trump cut basically half the checks he said he cut to vets on the day that the WaPo found out he hadn't, and he claimed it was because he was vetting groups.
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Jun 1, 2016 16:58
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Nocturtle posted:The Democrats are not going to take the House so these legislative "wins" won't change much. Moderate house republicans will continue to have no incentive to co-operate with house democrats and a lot to lose if they're perceived as a RINO. The tea party faction will remain ideologically opposed to passing anything. Only absolutely necessary legislation gets passed. We'll probably see another debt limit crisis in 2017, something to look forward to. Well, it's doing exactly what Madison wanted. If you're an aristocrat this country is still doing pretty great. Keep in mind Madison bought up a bunch of land on the Potomac so that he'd get rich(er) when DC got built. We're getting the plutocracy we planned for. That said, hey, when you 200 years old are, look as good you will not, etc.
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Jun 1, 2016 17:13
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Well, it's doing exactly what Madison wanted. If you're an aristocrat this country is still doing pretty great. Keep in mind Madison bought up a bunch of land on the Potomac so that he'd get rich(er) when DC got built. We're getting the plutocracy we planned for. i long for the day where we dispel with this fiction that the founding fathers gave a poo poo about people who weren't rich, white and men
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Jun 1, 2016 17:14
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Seriously. They all sounded like a bunch of real fuckers.
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Jun 1, 2016 17:16
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:i long for the day where we dispel with this fiction that the founding fathers gave a poo poo about people who weren't rich, white and men To be fair, I think some did. They just, you know. Got overruled by all the super-rich Virginians who really liked owning other humans.
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Jun 1, 2016 17:19
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Majorian posted:To be fair, I think some did. They just, you know. Got overruled by all the super-rich Virginians who really liked owning other humans. I mean in context of 1770's caring about them, I guess? But they absolutely weren't thinking about equality in the way we think about it and would have gotten the vapors from the idea of letting people of color and women vote, let alone hold major office.
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Jun 1, 2016 17:20
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No, that's absolutely true. Their level of caring for the overall welfare of people who weren't land-owning white males was pretty low, approaching zero. Just, you know, credit where credit is due.
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Jun 1, 2016 17:22
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Most of the founding fathers cared, in that they genuinely believed they were creating a better system. Trying to sum them up as merely "evil racist oligarchs" does get at an aspect of their lives and motivations but is dumbfoundingly reductionist.
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Jun 1, 2016 17:23
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Radish posted:Seriously. They all sounded like a bunch of real fuckers. Well, Lin Manuel Miranda had a quote in this month's Rolling Stone where he says that the founders deserve some real credit for "sticking the landing" and successfully transitioning to a Democratic government after the Revolution. That's pretty amazing and an extremely rare accomplishment in world history (compare the French Revolution). Past that of course yeah they were all deeply flawed in different ways.
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Jun 1, 2016 17:24
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El Disco posted:Oh god there's a tiny blip on the "Trump wins" side. Trump winning is the single most likely possible outcome. Think about that.
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Jun 1, 2016 17:27
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Quorum posted:Most of the founding fathers cared, in that they genuinely believed they were creating a better system. Trying to sum them up as merely "evil racist oligarchs" does get at an aspect of their lives and motivations but is dumbfoundingly reductionist. I didn't say they were evil or racist per-say -- I said that they weren't particularly interested in inclusion of the lower class . I mean a lot of them didn't event conceptualize the notion that non-whites were even actually humans. It isn't of course to castigate them entirely for what they were trying to do, but instead putting into perspective that calls to their authority on issues of equality and equanimity -- and more broadly how they thought government should work -- are not good.
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Jun 1, 2016 17:28
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zoux posted:The joke is that Trump cut basically half the checks he said he cut to vets on the day that the WaPo found out he hadn't, and he claimed it was because he was vetting groups. Sorry, I was just going off on a tangent. I'm Audi.
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Jun 1, 2016 17:28
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