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Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



Yaya posted:

The Edmonton Oilers complete their top line with the humongous dickbag but unquestionably talented Alexander Radulov. I have full faith in Joe Thornton to beat the poo poo out of him if he acts up.

JVR - Thornton - Radulov

Karlsson - Vlasic
Gardiner - ?

The newly christened Teemu Pokemon is up.

i love this team. i wish it was my team

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Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



when the clock strikes 10, Vjeff will be up to pick and he has until 10:49 to do so

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



furnace face gets skipped, I'm basically flipping a coin between a wing and a center - the Florida Panthers select Martin Hanzal. he's missed a lot of time but when he plays he's a great 5v5 producer and his fancy stats are in line with a pretty dang good 2c. having another good center who can generate his own offense is also going to make it easier for me to build up 3 scoring lines because I believe I can still get valuable wingers over these next few rounds

mentholmoose is up

Hoffman-Duchene-Duclair
x-Backlund-x
x-Hanzal-x

Hedman-Lindholm

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



Boomer the Cannon is up to pick at 10, he will have until 10:46 AM to get 'er done

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



the talent deficit posted:

i'm gonna take victor rask. he's basically the same player as trochek who went 200 picks ago

strongly disagree. i think he probably develops well but he's got a long way to go before he's anywhere near troch, who in 15-16 had a very positive impact when he was on the ice in goals for/goals against/shots for/shots against, and rask was a negative on the ice for all of those things except goals for

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



eXXon posted:

Who can I send a modified list to that is not someone like Brodeuds Nanny who will steal my brilliant idea for a pick.


His 5v5 scoring rates are better than or on par with Fowler over the last few years but then Fowler also sucks sooo

i'll be around

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



his name is Zach

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



i think you are looking from a really narrow view if you believe the D pool is slim right now

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



Brodeurs Nanny posted:

Dude it's pretty f'n slim in terms of dudes who aren't old/declining and who aren't negative possession players. I still need to fill out my top four and out of the remaining guys left for that role, I'll bank on Werenski over most of them over the next three seasons at a fraction of the cost.

i'm not talking about werenski's value vs. other d right now, i think the pick is fine. there's a lot of defensemen who have value that i think you guys are ignoring just because their corsi is bad. there's a lot more to a player than what his raw shot differential says

e: there's probably somewhere around 110-120 dudes who are legitimate top four defensemen in the NHL and we've drafted 70 or so of them because jesus christ y'all drafting cam fowler and poo poo

Aye Doc fucked around with this message at 19:23 on Jul 18, 2016

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



Good Soldier Svejk posted:

Man, now we're getting to the heart of it I think. Picks are a lot more fun when they're contentious because they get you to re-evaluate your criteria and understanding of what makes a good player.

It's actually a very interesting question because there are plenty of players deployed as top defenseman that don't have appreciable effects on corsi, but they do on shot suppression. The problem with that is that even traditional shutdown defensemen like Sekera and Hjalmarsson do positively affect corsi whereas a guy like Emelin only prevents the other team from taking shots. (Sorry for mentioning Emelin if you were banking on him being forgotten but he's the best example I could think of who I would hope most folks don't give a poo poo about being mentioned because he is traditional viewed as a bad defenseman). However, by the nature of their being so few defensemen that actually do positively impact corsi do we have to accept that maybe Emelin is not a complete waste by the virtue of him potentially being better than someone who could replace him?

In that way I could see someone saying the criteria for what is "good" is skewed, but it could also be fair to say that there were roughly ~300 hockey d-men in the NHL last season so if distribution of professional talent follows a bell curve then there simply couldn't be 100 top-4 dmen.

I'm rambling though so I'd like someone else to run with this or refute it. I just think it's an interesting thought but I'm too tired/too far removed from statistics to follow it through.

there are a lot of things that affect what a player's shot differential is from the big to the small - linemates, zone starts, competition, whatever. a lot of the D left are on bad teams and are going to be getting ice time with bad linemates in their own zone against a line of better players on the whole. for example last year i was arguing about Jake Gardiner being a #1 d-man and a lot of people disagreed because he had a corsi under 50 - nothing about his on-ice performance from last season to this season really changed that much, but his corsi went from 49 to 53. he saw some more starts in the offensive zone and some less in the neutral zone; his teammate's corsi went up like 6% so he was playing with better players, and obviously there was a systems change. i don't personally think Gardiner's value changed much, but it definitely seems like the perception of it has a little because now I see the media and more fans praising him for his play when before he was being torn down as a #4 guy.

i think for a lot of the D left, they're being overlooked because people are just seeing a raw number or raw numbers they don't like, but there are a lot of ways you can look at what's making that number what it is - quality of teammate stats, zone starts, relative possession stats, expected goals, whatever your pleasure. but by those metrics, a lot of the dudes left are positive impact players even if they aren't by corsi

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



Paulocaust is skipped as of 6:51

ThinkTank is up, followed by The RECAPITATOR and Otis Reddit. let's go picking whoo yay

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



I take Damon severson

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



now that I'm on my computer and have a few minutes, I can say some words about Damon Severson. first, he's 21 so he has a ton of good years ahead of him. second, he's generating offense for his awful team when he is on the ice - they get just over 5 shots more per 60 with him on the ice than without, and he isn't causing them to give up more shots. he has 123 games in the NHL now and it looks like he's going to be producing at a top pairing level 5v5 by next year, and he is already a more than capable top four guy with some good powerplay utility and a good bit of room to grow.

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



T-Bone posted:

This is a good pick. He's going to play a lot of minutes this year, and should get some solid PP time.


Eh you could do worse. He makes some big mistakes but he makes a lot of plays that no one else on the Devils can, particularly on the outlet.

i'd add on, most 21 year olds are going to be making bad mistakes and looking rough in the defensive zone because of how great the difference in skill from the WHL to the NHL is. his shot differentials relative to his team are those of a top pairing guy, and he's doing it while playing with absolutely garbage teammates against difficult competition (his linemates, all bad bad players, have a 45.46% corsi and his competition have a 50% corsi)

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



i think eric staal is a Good Pick despite his shameful new york tenure

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



Technetium posted:

Only against my will

you're of legal age, he isn't interested

JoelJoel has until 4:08, followed up by Yaya and Dandy Kaiser

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



that was a very satisfying sequence

e: my enjoyment of it means that both of the guys i would want to make it back to me will immediately go and the schadenfreude will be upon me instead

Aye Doc fucked around with this message at 21:19 on Jul 19, 2016

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



Brodeurs Nanny posted:

Who can I send a list to who won't steal my pick?

you can send it to me, I doubt either of the dudes I want are ones you've got on your list

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



teuvo rules. he's still 21 and has a more than decent chance to become a top liner, or at least a baller rear end second liner

the Panthers are happy to take the dude they've wanted to come back to us, Michael Frolik. I think there are a couple good second line wingers right now but none are as good at driving offense and scoring goals as Frolik. he's also on a good deal where he'll be making less money than his cap hit for most of these years

mentholmoose is up

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



Hoffman-Duchene-Duclair
x-Hanzal-Frolik
x-Backlund-x

Hedman-Severson
Lindholm-x

i'm pretty comfortable with this, I think I've got some good rear end D-men coming to me that are going to slip through the cracks and there's a billion middle six wingers still on the board

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



Yaya posted:

JVR-Thornton-Radulov
Vesey-Bonino-?

Karlsson-Vlasic
?-Gardiner

Allen

Could be better, could be worse. I really love my defense so far.

this defense is really sick and thornton would make that top line work no matter how hard radulov and JVR would try to saboage it. it's a shame about your second line but i love the rest so much

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



mentholmoose picked at 2:57, Svejk's time expires at 4:57 so we got some time still

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



Otis Reddit has until 7:05 to pick. he is followed by The RECAPITATOR and ThinkTank

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



Otis is skipped, The RECAPITATOR has until 9:05

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



ThinkTank is up followed by Paulocaust and stab. let's go late night picking crew

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



i'm around if you want to send any picks to me

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



it's like 30 picks before it gets back to me. we are 9 rounds deep how do you still not have any clue about the draft order

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



yeah we've been skipping the second pick if someone is still not back from their original skip

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



stab is up followed by Paulocaust and ThinkTank

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



The RECAPITATOR was skipped at 9:06, Otis Reddit has until 11:06 AM tomorrow to pick

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



Boomer the Cannon can pick, to be followed by Flyinglemur & Good Soldier Svejk

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



Boomer is skipped, FlyingLemur can pick

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



Good Soldier Svejk posted:

I'm so ready to pick this fantasy hockey guy

i've had my dude ready to pick for a solid 2 days now but all these Slow rear end Pickers (SAPs) are blueballing me

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



at 3:52, mentholmoose will be skipped and I'll make my badass pick, to be followed by Furnaceface

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



The Florida Panthers are delighted to be adding one of their own to the team - we select James Reimer . Goalies are voodoo as everyone knows but there are some smart people working to untangle that voodoo and all of the metrics they come up with and use say Reimer is a great goaltender. Nobody really knows when the heck a goalies prime years are but the best evidence right now says it's from 27 through 29 so I have some more of Reimer's top play left to see. For as good as he is, his 3.4 million dollar cap hit over the next 5 years seems to me like a hell of a bargain.

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



Joel Joel is skipped and Yaya can pick

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



i am the bird has until noon, followed by a double dose of VJeff and more i am the bird.

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



VJeff posted:

On mobile, pick coming in just a few minutes

lies and slander

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



as of 2:28 VJeff is double skipped, i am the bird can pick again

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Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



Teemu Pokemon posted:

I'll take Derrick Pouliot I sure hope he plays more!

it isn't your turn yet

Infidel Castro can pick, to be followed by the eagerest beaver

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