vyelkin posted:

Probably more. An earlier Guardian bit said 12% of UK GDP is the London financial sector and if they're really leaving the EU and getting kicked out of the common market then most of that will up and leave to Germany or Ireland. And that's before you get to any kind of trade in actual physical goods, tourism, etc.

Forgall posted:

The Larch posted:

There is a meaningful difference between dying now and dying fifty-odd years in the future.

Rigged Death Trap posted:

Isn't Article 50 something that has to specifically invoked by the country?

The X-man cometh posted:

Turtles are aquatic. Maybe if it was a tortoise?

Theoretically, Leave benefits large corporations because Tory-controlled Britain (especially if Scotland secedes) would be more business-friendly than the EU. In practice, EU regulations tend to be more lax because nobody knows who their MEP is, and they can be easily swayed.

Blurred posted:

Because the EU will be pursuing its own self-interest, which (at least until 3 days ago) lay with the UK remaining a member of the EU. If the UK and the EU can negotiate terms that preserve basically all of the framework that was in place prior to the exit (meaning, like I said, that the UK would be part of the EU in all but name), I fail to see why the EU would object. What they absolutely will not allow is for the UK to pick and choose which provisions it will and will not follow, but if the UK were to come to the EU and say, "we apologise for our compatriots, but we (the people now charged with negotiating this thing) are interested in preserving the status quo as far as possible", then why would the EU turn them down? It seems the bigger political obstacle would be objections from the UK electorate, but that's precisely why the fight for pro-EU politicians has to begin now. Collapsing in despair and ceding power to the anti-EU circus is the surest way for all of the pessimistic scenarios envisaged in this thread to come to fruition.

Now it should of course be acknowledged that the EU will not cede anything that would lend succour to anti-EU movements on the continent, but I fail to see how a status quo arrangement would provide these forces with any degree of political impetus - in fact, as the cold political and economic realities settle in, it might even have a dampening effect. If anti-EU parties see that the UK left the EU only to be left with basically the same arrangement which obtained before (sans voting rights), how are they going to market it to their electorate as an example to be followed? If a state the size of the UK were to leave the union and then be seen to submit quiescently to its demands anyway, what hope does that give to independence movements in smaller nations like Holland, Denmark or the Czech Republic?

Puistokemisti posted:

Stock markets around the world have lost about 2 trillion dollars following the Brexit results. There's probably going to be bunch of people who don't find UK suddenly going "jk everyone, we are staying " all that funny. And EU probably doesn't like it UK keeps causing markets to poo poo themselves blind because they refuse to say if they are getting out or not.

OwlFancier posted:

A referendum is advisory, not binding. Elections are even under the silly system we use.

WorldsStrongestNerd posted:

Uncertainty is the worst thing for an economy, even worse then bad news. Britains whole "will we, won't we, let's have another vote on it" is incredibly damaging. This divorce needs to proceed as quickly as possible.

bencreateddisco posted:

I keep hearing arguments that the EU needs British consumption.

This makes no sense to me.

Laradus posted:

It is all a right royal fuckup.

Ditocoaf posted:

Excellent read in that quote. It's fascinating to see someone from that era try to justify poo poo. He seems to be aware that an injustice is being done, but appealing to inevitably, via... the European tradition of conquering. "If only the native Americans had a comparable system of power and property, they would have been assimilated like everyone the Romans conquered were", basically. Anyway it wasn't even us who staked the claim on their land, we're just following through on Britain's claim which we won from them in the war. A+ mental gymnastics.

CottonWolf posted:

Mainly because by that point the Daily Mail would have incited an insurrection and all judges will be dead.

I'm only partially joking. I genuinely believe if this goes anywhere near the European courts, people are going to die.

Strawman posted:

Yeah, I meant the queen's parents were sympathisers.