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lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Puistokemisti posted:

Have you guys considered leaving EU and forming your own Scandic Union with Scotland?
f

We actually have various Nordic collaborations besides EU, and given the torrent of social media on the topic this weekend, I think the majority of Swedes at least would welcome Scotland into them.

For example, the Nordic Council of Ministers, which is kind of a tiny EU light.
http://www.norden.org/en/nordic-council-of-ministers

Scotland is basically Norway but dubbed into weird English, right? But Scandinavians in general are supreme suckers for flattery, and will go bananas if a random international celebrity mentions any of our countries. A whole country wanting to be part of our derpy cold club? People are already salivating over the thought.

lilljonas fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Jun 27, 2016

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lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

kalstrams posted:

Very timely resurrection of the thread with Swedish police spending an hour recently to figure out if person was Danish or drunk.

Turned out he was just drunk. Sweden draws a sigh of relief and clamps down with even stricter border inspections.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Rappaport posted:

My Swedish skills are pretty bad, if some goon would like to write even a small effortpost about what the Hell is going on with school in Sweden, it'd be appreciated :)

Anything specific? I'm working in higher education, so I'm not 100% versed in the history and technicalities of primary and secondary education, but the thing with the municipalities vs national government controlling primary schools took effect in 1991. It was generally unpopular among teachers, and looking back, a lot of people on both sides of the political spectrum (and teachers) agree that the municipalities have been bad at providing an equal primary education across the country.

Basically, the reasoning to give the reins of public primary and secondary education to the municipalities was that decentralization, compared to managing everything from the national government, would give more power local government to adjust education to the wishes of local parents and teachers. This would be done by defining the expected learning outcomes but manage the methods of reaching them less, and by giving the municipalties a blanket funding and then letting them solve the rest. However, one problem was that the learning outcomes were too vague and up to interpretation, and the municipalities got quite a lot of leeway in how to solve the budgeting. But overall, a lot of politicians on both sides agreed that it was a way to go forward, even though the left ended up voting it through.

One result was that municipalities who were responsible for more expensive schools started to cut down the costs, especially as Sweden entered a financial crisis in the early 90's. This had negative effects on schools that had high expenses because, well, their pupils migh need extra support. By losing the national overview and giving reins to local municipilaties to adminster the schools budgets, you opened up the temptation to cover other budget deficiencies through cutting school costs. I went through primary school in late 80's and the 90's, and school budget cut-downs were both noticable and a major talking point. It was not uncommon for us to have textbooks that were more or less falling apart from previous use, something that was unheard of a few years earlier.

Skolverket (the Swedish National Agency for Education) did an evaluation in 2012, and it agreed with the critics in that the municipalities would often think of the national goals (that were supposed to guarantee that education is equivalent across the country) as more of a "lofty, idealistic goal", and would not prioritize school budgets in a way that made sure to achieve them. In practical terms, making primary education a municipality matter meant that areas that put an emphasis on edcuation and used their good schools as a way to market their area (say, academic cities like Lund, or affluent municipalties surrounding the major cities) would secure more funding for their schools, compared to poorer municipalities with populations that were less interested in schooling. Basically, it works as a way to cement inequalities, as you're less likely to get a good education if your surrounding is poor and/or prioritize other things than education.

So now you have a messy situation where Swedish school results are going down (or not, depending on who you ask), something needs to be done (or not, depending on who you ask), and one of those things could be to give back the reins to the national government (or not, depending on who you ask). It's not even a clear ideological division, as parties on both sides are for and against a re-nationalization of the primary and secondary schools. However, it's a bit funny to see that the left, despite driving through the change, is more negative towards it now, and the right having both some of the most ardent supporters of a change (the Liberals) and the most dug-in detractors (the Moderates). It's also a divided subject among researchers and high ranking officials in government and in the unions, though one of the teachers' unions (LRF) are vocal proponents for a re-nationalization.

But yea, tl;dr - it's a mess.

E: no, the funniest thing about this whole issue is Jan Björklund suddenly marketing himself as the white knight of returning public schools to their proper place, under national management. Despite not lifting a finger about it before. Despite being Minister of Education for a remarkable seven years.


But speaking of education, I think that the change in management of public primary and secondary schools won't be a major issue for a while as the debate seems to have died down a bit. Rather, I see a resurgence in the discussion about the shape and form of private schools, as both the subject of how to deal with the religious schools (no matter denomination) and the layer of private schools that are both profitable and underperforming. Those are much more emotional and ideological questions that seems to stir "the masses" in a way that is way, way more appealing to media, and politicians who are interested in raising their profiles through said media.

lilljonas fucked around with this message at 11:44 on Jun 28, 2016

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

punk rebel ecks posted:

I keep hearing that Scandinavia is going further and further right wing as it continues to privatize its publicly owned property and services and cuts down in benefits. Is this true?

It is true for Sweden the last two, two and a half decades, at least. Or rather, some common right wing positions are become more "standard", an other common left wing positions are also becoming more "standard", but more so of the former than the latter. The Social Democrats these days are defending positions regarding privatizations that would be considered radical borgeoise propaganda when I was small, and at the same time the right parties generally stopped singularly appealing to wealthy inner city elites.

Basically, the Social Democrats are middle-of-the-road centrists with a few flashes of red now and then. Meanwhile the right parties' general position has shifted to agree that the Swedish Model is good, and should not be torn down into a libertarian Thunderdome, but would be better managed by the right, with changes to benefit employed people.

This is most visible in issues such as public insurance (which got much worse for permanently disabled, and patients with long term illnesses), the changes promoting privatized health care and education, the tax rebates for household work (which was definitely a right-wing agenda that the Social Democrats have accepted), and general tax rebates for income-earners that were kept after the Social Democrats and Greens took over. All these were pushed by the right the last decades, and were initially resisted by the left, but are now still in place despite the change in government.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!
The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion: You Are Racist > Scandinavian Politics Nordic Food Court

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!
Glöm aldrig Stockholms svek mot öresundsregionen. Skåneland remembers.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Struensee posted:

Hvad med Halland og Blekinge? De er jo næsten udelukkende danskere allesammen. Vores gamle jord bliver købt tilbage, dødsbo for dødsbo.



Watch out or we'll take back Bornholm when we declare independence. :black101:

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

The Bananana posted:

I thought things were supposed to be peaceful in Scandinavia

How Swedes like to think of themselves:



*haven't been at war since 1814 (arguably, depending on how you consider our involvment in the war in Afghanistan from 2010 and forward)

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Wild Horses posted:

feels good to have just missed conscription and now it's going to come back when I'm too old.

You imagine how useful this will be for pissing on millenials for being weaker than other generations, right? "Oh, of course they are wusses, they didn't have to do military service" (actively disregards the fact that like 10-15% actually had to serve at the final years of conscription)

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Cardiac posted:

Also, I wonder what dirt Kent Ekeroth has on Åkesson.

Kent Ekeroth is such a disaster that he would have been sacked ten times in any normal party. It's amazing, but then, it's a party without deep pockets when it comes to finding replacements, as local level SD politicians have shown that they are either absent or trainwrecks. The party is extremely thinly spread when it comes to people with any real political experience, given that they got a ton of votes in places where they didn't have any candidates ready, so obviously unfit people have managed to get positions that they would have lost much quicker in more professional parties.

And yeah, I don't find it strange that soft-core fascists in SD like thinly veiled fascist Putin. He's basically their ideal image of a leader, with a severely battered free press that is more or less replaced by RT (which SD just LOVE, as they run tons of articles on how EU has been destroyed by immigrants), an opposition that is either rooted out, exciled or too small to be effective, a nationalistic "Russia Stronk" propaganda, and a disregard to pesky things like human rights and international law. That's like heaven for a large part of the SD supporters that are not just uninformed protest voters.

lilljonas fucked around with this message at 10:42 on Sep 29, 2016

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!
Make Sweden Great Again



Kom igen Tjabo, you know you want to!

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!
Italy has nothing on the lethal combination of engineering skills and cruelty against food that is Sweden. Pwhoaah!

I switch between the following at my favourite pizzeria:

Tomatsås, Ost, Gyroskött, Vitlök, Feferoni, Svartpeppar, Tzatzikisås

and

Tomatsås, Ost, Tomater (färska), Tacofärs, Majs, Tacosås

Delish.

lilljonas fucked around with this message at 21:00 on Nov 27, 2016

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Hollismason posted:

Yes, please give me the low down on Denmark.

I hope you like schnapps for breakfast.

E: oh it's the scandipol thread.

I hope you like schnapps and racism for breakfast.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Jerry Cotton posted:

Jag kan försöka ersätta Ligur. Sieg heil sieg heil bort med svartskallor. Ni förstår mig alldeles inte; jag är ju ordentlig gubbe :qq::qq::qq:

Kusligt! :O

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!
My impression of the Jävlabock is that it is a stroke of marketing genius. Once a year, Swedish media reports on it extensively and even international media mentions this small Swedish town. The amount of free recognition they get for each SEK they invest in a pile of hay is incredible. Their PR department should be bribing kids to burn it every year, and that would have more impact on the town's recognition than anything else they do.

I mean, what do I know about Gävle? That they have a loving bock, that's what I know.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

ThaumPenguin posted:

Seems like the Norwegian government coalition is still disintegrating, gonna be interesting to see what KrF chooses to do.

Burn it all down

Couldn't happen to a nicer group of populists people.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Hollismason posted:

What's like the property tax system in Scandinavian countries like? Just kind of curious. It's what I work in now.

Iirc Sweden got rid of property taxes in 2008 when the right wing government thought that the housing bubble wasn't inflated enough, and they needed to bribe the middle class a bit more. Instead of the old national tax it was supposed to be a local government tax, which turned into a local government fee. That fee is supposedly connected to the value of the property, but it is capped at a max value of some 1200 SEK/year.

So basically it's not a factor.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

cinci zoo sniper posted:

So I thought about the Swedish real estate, that everything nice as already take or balls-expensive.

Actually, no. Especially if you come from a country where you have a different perspective on distance.

For example, Stockholm inner city is hosed. Oh, oh so hosed. But if you look at distances that would be a normal commute in other places the picture changes, as Swedes value commutes differently.

Take Malmö for example. If you want a detached house with three rooms and a kitchen, you're looking at a minimum of 3-4 million SEK for anything that a Swede would consider "central". However, we don't have nearly the same kind of urban sprawl as US cities. As soon as you look at something 15-20 minutes away by car, you'll find houses for cheaper than that. If you are prepared to drive 30 minutes to Malmö instead of living smack dab in the middle of the city, you can find a house that is twice the size but still half the price, especially if you keep an Eye out for a while. And we're not talking junk houses, but nice countryside houses with big properties within 30 minutes by car from the third biggest city in Sweden.

So you should take the Swede's bitching about housing with a grain of salt, since some of it is coming from wanting to live in the perfect apartment in the middle of a city, while still being in a quiet area with no crime, pollution, traffic, with great public schools and parks but low taxes. As soon as you are just a tiny bit more flexible than that, you have a great advantage on the Swedish property market.

E: but yeah, there are limits, but I could found several 1 room apartments in Skåne for around 200 K. But you'd be living in places like Bjuv, Perstorp and Klippan, which would be hard to combine with a commute to Malmö. But I found one apartment in Kävlinge (10 minutes from Lund, 20-25 from Malmö) for around 300 K. And again, we're not talking crack house dens:

http://www.hemnet.se/bostad/bostadsratt-1rum-kavlinge-kavlinge-kommun-kullagatan-13d-10455875

lilljonas fucked around with this message at 13:23 on Dec 1, 2016

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!
I bike past the super scary dealers 2-4 times every week. They look far more bored than scary, which is hardly surprising since they stand outside in awful Nordic weather all evening and night, every night. Big deal. Malmö is far less scary if you live here: a lot of the "scary streets" are literally a strip of about a hundred metres in a suburb, and the killings are almost exclusively organized criminals killing each other. Sure it sucks for the people living on those specific streets, but it is hardly a post-apocalyptic wasteland. The scaremongers are almost always people who never even visited Malmö.

However, the pushers moved on lately, and I haven't seen them the last couple of weeks.

lilljonas fucked around with this message at 23:07 on Dec 5, 2016

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Wild Horses posted:

alright fair enough. i don't know poo poo about poo poo apparently.
And kids and drugs are two things that should not mix, sorry but that point still stands

The tragedy is not that the kids are selling drugs in the wrong place, it's that they get caught up in that lifestyle at all, and there's nobody there to take care of them. They are so incredibly simple to identify, yet there's nothing to do. Personally I'd think it would be better to force them into some other environment, I dunno, make them finish school at some folkhögskola out in the forest where they get space to find a new path, but what do I know.

E: for people who obviously don't know the story:

Drugs are sold quite openly next to a park that is very popular among families, especially hipster parents. There's also a daycare on the street by the park, where the sellers hang out. The drugdealers mainly use young guys, often underage, to handle the drugs, since they are quickly released if the police catch them. The kids are often from that very area, they grow up next to drug criminals and are recruited at a very young age, ruining their future.

It's pretty awful and sad, but hardly scary unless you are looking for propaganda about Malmö being a failed sharia state.

lilljonas fucked around with this message at 23:49 on Dec 5, 2016

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!
You can either listen to Cardiac about how Malmö is a crime-ridden hellhole filled with dangerous non-Swedes, or you can look at actual surveys that showed that this very year, Malmö was number 7 on the European survey of how satisfied people are with the city they live in.

http://www.sydsvenskan.se/2016-02-10/darfor-ar-malmo-sverigebast-att-leva-i

Oh, it turns out that Malmö inhabitants are more satisfied with their city than people in Stockholm? I guess Stockholm is just even more of a immigrant-ridden hellscape then. Please, don't mind actual data.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!
Malmö is one of those cities that are not an amazing place to show tourists as there are few things that really stick out, but it's a pretty nice place to live.

It is far smaller and more compact than Stockholm, so you can get everywhere by bike even if you live in a suburb. It's not built on a bunch of small islands and there are properly proportioned motorways around the city, so traffic is never that congested. It has nice parks, good beaches in summer, an airport 15 minutes away by train, and Copenhagen 30 minutes away. It has a city centre with actual shops, unlike a lot of smaller towns where everything is evacuated to big boxy shopping centres outside town. You can still afford to live in the city centre on an average income, without selling the organs of your future children on the black market. It has a wide range of cultural activities, including an actually pretty nice opera and a top of the line consert house.

So yeah, it's a pretty decent place to live in, but Stockholm is by far a prettier city if you come by as a tourist.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Angepain posted:

the Real Malmö Experience

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Of course people are satisfied, you'd be too if you moved out of a war zone and into a country where the government showers you with gifts while not interfering when you take the locals as slaves.

SOS

I tried to get the train this morning, but got kidnapped by a roaming tribe of Tuareg camel nomads.

I'm currently being carted away to the White Slave Market in Landskrona.

Take heed of my plight, Cardiac was right all along!

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!
"Let's build on a set of small islands next to a steep cliff!" is a great idea for a medieval architect designing a small, fortified capital. It's a horrible, horrible idea for a modern city with more than a million inhabitants.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

MiddleOne posted:

Whoa that escalated fast


Hela poängen med ungdomsförbund är ju att de ska kunna vädra extrema åsikter för att se hur de går i opinionen utan att moderpartiet lider för missarna.

Poängen med ungdomsförbund borde vara att föra lista över medlemmarna, och sedan automatiskt diskvalificera dem från att arbeta med politik på riktigt innan de varit i karantän 10 år ute i verkliga livet.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!
You should notice that there are currently two winners in both media and public support after M started to openly flirt with SD: C and S. KD is playing a coy "will they-won't they" game where they kind of want to join the new brown-blue block and kind of don't want to, and they remain as unpopular as ever. C have clearly said no, L as well, and S is looking better in people's eyes compared to M, at least in short term. There's no way to ignore that AKB was desperate in the face of falling popularity, both internally and externally, and that it lead to this mess. And I think the shoddy way she has handled it will make it worse, at least in the short term.

So if anything, I'd say that signs are clearer than ever that a L-C-S middle block starts to make sense. I don't personally like it, but I'd rather have a center-right L-C-S block than a full on SD-M-KD block in charge.

lilljonas fucked around with this message at 12:40 on Jan 26, 2017

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!
Garbage middle road nonsense sounds like a great way forward for large parts of both C, L and S. Just saying.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!
Basically current percentages in the Riksdag is irrelevant and this is the election season starting. All parties have their eyes on getting the best positions for the election in 2018, there's no way AKB can force a snap election with her current blustering and she knows it.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!
People who has no idea about unions, posting about unions on the Internet? That's shocking! :O

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

cinci zoo sniper posted:

You could say that I am getting, uhh, flashbacks. :dadjoke:

No but seriously I'm a union board member at work, and a ton of the stuff we do are basically:

a) try to get the management to realize when the balance between tasks/assignments and resources are completely out of whack

b) act as mediators, by trying to tell the management what people on the floor are complaining about so that it doesn't come as a complete shock when people get pissed about their decisions

c) discuss wage discrepancies and check that no employees are discriminated against

Rubbing our hands about making money over blood diamond investments while figuring out how to overturn the country for a secret Leninist cabal is not really a part of the daily routine. You would probably get a shock about this extremely top secret fact:

the majority of union members in my workplace are not even leftists

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

evil_bunnY posted:

Exactly what a someone rubbing their hands about making money over blood diamond investments while figuring out how to overturn the country for a secret Leninist cabal would say

gently caress


Cardiac posted:

On the other hand considering LOs and S very tight connections the difference between party politics and actual workers rights is sometimes debatable.
Especially nowadays with the lowering ratio of union members and as well as S voters within LO.

Yeah it's a great surprise that the unions are kind of supporting the parties that are not out to, you know, get rid of unions or at least make sure that their tools for supporting workers' rights are as restricted as possible. Clearly it's a conspiracy at play.

The entire Alliansen, and SD as well, are so far up Svenskt Näringsliv's rear end that there is no alternative.

lilljonas fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Feb 4, 2017

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!
Aaaaand the people have spoken. First poll after AKB try to lead the Moderates to the promised land with the Swedish Democrats:

http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/moderaterna-stortdyker/

Down 6%, which is more than I could hope for. In a way it really brings back a little bit of my belief in my fellow countrymen. If this continues, the daggers are coming out in a way we haven't seen since Juholt.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!
Watch Annie loving Lööf, of "legalizing polygamy is a high priority for us" fame, bleed out Reinfeldts gains. I would not have suspected this four years ago.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Cardiac posted:

You guys do a whole lot of extrapolation due to just one poll that just happens to fit your worldview.

While the loss for M is noticeable, the question whether it will have a long-term effect remains to be seen.
L and C are still living in la-la land when it comes to change of ruling coalition, where the terms still haven't changed.
1.5 years before election is still a very long time.

Expressen's editorial is already calling for a desperate party leader shift while there's time before the next election. And M has been slipping in the polls for a long time, which led to the sudden invitation to SD. But yes, she's totally going to turn this around. Being branded "the worst party leader since Juholt" (by right wing media!) is actually good for her public image.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

MiddleOne posted:

Batra has been a Sahlin scale disaster for M.

To put it in numbers:

Voter's views of who see as the leader for Alliansen:

2016
Batra 49%
Lööf 11%

2017
Batra 26%
Lööf 36%

You have to go back to Thorbjörn Fälldin (79-81) to find a time where M was not the leaders of the right wing in Sweden. AKB's downward slide is amazing not just because it's so fast, but because it's an unexpected yet huge power shift in the right wing. Not just in number of voters, but in voter's confidence in which party is expected to lead their collective cause.


Cardiac posted:

So better than Lövven and Juholt then?


Well, it gives them clicks so that is a good idea for Expressen.
Changing party leader doesn't change squat, neither the left or the right will have a majority come next election (given current polls), so unless something happens with regards to party block disruptions, the current situation will remain.
Annie Lööf is the FOTM party leader and like MP before her, media cherry-pick parts of what she says and disregards the rest. Her Ayn Rand-wankery is hardly that popular outside certain circles.

Speaking of C, I wonder how many of their current supporters have gone the route MP->M->C, cause in a way that is a pretty dramatic change in political views.

You can't even compare AKB and Löfvén, as the latter is actually gaining a little in the latest voter's confidence polls. But yeah, she's dangerously close to the Juholt area, where she's damned if she does, and damned if she don't. Pretty much she's under attack internally, externally, and from both the left and right of her party. It's not a nice seat.

Actually, in this case a party leader shift could help M, as they could use AKB as a sacrificial lamb, and blame a small subset of the party (the most rightwing ones), and try to win back the more moderate voters by shutting the door to SD after they kick AKB through it. After all, there's still a large group within M who are remaining yet still very unhappy with the collaboration with SD.

Lööf is in a great position as she can just say "look at us we're not M", and keep gaining votes. She won't rock the boat with any of C's more absurd positions, as she doesn't need to and she learned early on that they don't have wide popular support.

lilljonas fucked around with this message at 14:36 on Feb 9, 2017

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Cardiac posted:

There have also been a pretty dramatic decrease in voter's confidence in politicians in general as well.
Lövvens figures are pretty depressing as well if I recall correctly.

No, really Cardiac, stop guessing numbers. Here are the latest confidence polls, where Löfvén's are pointing up, and are higher than AKB's numbers:

http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/gladjesiffror-for-stefan-lofven/

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Pump it up! Do it! posted:

M hasn't done very well since she became the leader since she has been outmaneuvered by Löfven at every turn starting with DÖ and now her party has gotten sick of her as well. She should just realize that she's the right wing version of Mona Sahlin and resign so M will have a better chance for the next election.

Only one third of M voters want AKB to be statsminister and one third would rather see Annie Lööf take over. AKB's in deep poo poo, but M have no competent leaders left so it would not surprise me if they ride it out, get a slight increase, scrape together 17-18% in the next election and tries to declare it a victory while pretending that they did not lose 10% of the electorate.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

MiddleOne posted:

Either way I'm wild that we're living in a reality where Hanif Bali and loving Carl Bildt are seen as potential leaders of M. Oh 2017 :v:

On the other hand, that would save Hanif Bali from having to get an actual real job, as the current low support for M would mean that he's kicked out of the Riksdag and can't be a salaried twitter troll.

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lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Dirk Pitt posted:

Is it surprising that AKB stepped down?

No, she was in a really really bad situation no matter what she decided to do today. She was also very exposed without any defenders that the average voter would know and respect. A wavering support from roughly half of the local party organisations is not a position of strength. Also the internal opposition was turning into a rapid avalanche this week, things were only going to get worse and she knew it. There was no point to try to stay for another year, just to be remembered as the party leader who was responsible for the return from an outlyer period with 30% support back to a more normal 15%, which is how things are looking right now.

Also keep in mind that AKB was an untested leader who was forcibly put at the top of the party by their previous leader when he left. She was not carried there by massive support, and she didn't have to really campaign to get her spot. She never had a broad appeal in the party, which is to a certain degree a party of older men who felt wronged that they were robbed a chance at the top. She never had to weather a real crisis until this year, when she bumbled the SD issue, bumbled the IT scandal, and seemed to scrape together the worst result possible from situations that would be simple to deal with as an opposition party. She didn't have the reserves of allies or even old laurels to claim that she had what it took to improve the outlook for the party, or even herself.

Keep in mind as well that AKB never was much of a tactician, and was more known as an ideology politician before she became party leader. Just as she couldn't navigate practical issues such as the non-confidence vote, I doubt she had the skills to navigate the internal mistrust of her.

However, I hardly see how this will make matters better for M, as the basic problem has not been AKB. She hasn't helped (she's reeeeally bad on screen), but it's basically a problem of policy, where the party has been both a weathervane shifting positions a lot, and also not having a unique selling point. Other parties have more clearly defined positions on everything that M claims to be their politics, so I bet voters aren't chomping at the bit to flood back.

E: as to how likely it was that she'd drop, my more politically interested friends were at the point where they were betting on which day she'd announce, not whether she'd announce or not.

lilljonas fucked around with this message at 09:42 on Aug 25, 2017

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