- gobbagool
- Feb 5, 2016
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by R. Guyovich
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Doctor Rope
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Center for American Progress, Brookings and the American Enterprise Institute put out this report last year, looking at American election demographic data from the 1970s to projections into 2060, to get an idea of what the changing electorate will look like.
The major racial trends include:
White people are proportionally declining like polar bears... 80% of the total population in 1980, 63% in 2015 and projected to be <44% in 2060.
Latin Americans are blowing up. 6% in 1980, 17% in 2015 and into 2060 they are expected to reach almost 30% of the total pop.
Asians / others are steadily growing. From 2% in 1980, 8% in 2015 and 15% in 2060.
Maryland and Nevada are slated to be the next "Majority Minority" states and should flip in the next 5 years. The 2020s will see four more: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and New Jersey. Eventually 22 more states are expected to be majority minority by 2060, accounting for roughly 2/3 of the U.S. population and the vast majority of the electoral college votes (11/15 of the largest states).
The major trends with voter eligibility:
There has always been a gap between the population share of minorities and those of them that are eligible to vote. In 1980, 16% of eligible voters were minorities, 4% less than the total population of minorities in the country. The gap between minority population and voter eligibility has risen to 7% in 2015, but is expected to narrow over the next 45 years to 2%. This narrowing is partially due to natural citizenship being granted to the children of immigrants who themselves are currently not citizens.
The actual voting populace is also becoming more diverse.
Eligible voters and actual voters are different stats entirely, as minorities have historically been underrepresented among actual voters. For instance, in 1975 15% of eligible voters were minorities compared to 12% of actual voters. The 3% gap has remained constant up to 2012.
There is also a gap depending on what type of election you are talking about. Minorities tend to vote less in congressional elections as opposed to presidential years. The gap in 2006, 2010 and 2014 was around 5% as opposed to the average of 3%.
Baby Boomers are becoming less and less electorally relevant.
By 2015, the Greatest Generation was down to around 1%, the Silent Generation was at 9%, Baby Boomers were at 24%, and Gen Xers were at 21%. However, the Millennials—born from 1981 to 2000—had grown to 27%, and the Post-Millennials—born from 2001 to 2010—had grown to 18%.
The boomers will be dead in 2060, barring some transhuman breakthrough:
America is getting older because the newer generations are smaller than the boomers.
Back in 1980, 49% of the population was under age 30, but now its 40% and is projected to decline to 35% in 2060.
Most importantly, in my mind, is the trend showing the white working class declining over the historical data and even more into the future projections. Defined as white people with less than 4 years of college education, in 1974, 73% of all eligible voters were white working class. Over the next 40 years, that figure dropped 27 points to 46% in 2015.
This group has been declining at a steady rate of 3 points per presidential election, a trend that is expected to continue. This group also disproportionately breaks for Trump this cycle, by as much as +40%. On the other hand, these voters are disproportionately located in solid red states.
Young people are disproportionately independent and democratic according to Gallups 2014 numbers:
But they are also the most disconnected from politics. Almost half of millennials identify as independent.
Check out what Pew came up with in late 2015 when they polled party identification by race:
It stands to reason that after Trump's wall, the Trump U. Judge and the Muslim ban, the +30 for the dems in the Latino column will increase. Maybe for as long as a generation.
Of the groups that tilt to the dems only two are not growing rapidly, black americans and jewish americans... their numbers are expected to stay steady into 2060.
So, TL:DR = however you cut the electorate, demographically, the groups that traditionally have skewed to the right politically are shrinking and the groups that skew left are being further alienated by the current campaign.
The stats paint with a broad brush and cover over nuances that are important, but the overall trends are clearly bad for the GOP. The post-mortem post-Romney was pretty clear on these points and included specific proscriptions to change with the times.
However, Trump has pretty much done the opposite of all of them.
The governor of Cali in 1991 pulled the same move with his hardcore support for Proposition 187. In the face of a rising Latino electorate, republican governor Pete Wilson ran this ad, lovingly dubbed "they keep coming." The GOP doesn't win there anymore.
This was going to happen nationally---the K-street facility is on fire, but Trump has been the metaphorical equivalent of air-dropping gasoline in place of water. The real question is whether or not Paul Ryan, Rubio, Kasich and other remaining moderish voices in the RNC can build a new coalition that can compete nationally in the face of these changing demographics and right after the Trump train derails their national strategy Lac Megantic style.
Seems like we should say a few words... adios seems appropriate.  Enjoyed Will Ferrell's incredibly prescient impression of what will be the last republican president.
Well if we know one thing, all statistical trends extrapolate in a linear manor, forever, and nothing ever changes. Clearly a coalition of the ultra wealthy coastal liberals, upper middle class highly educated knowledge workers, and working class 2nd generation and beyond immigrants will always hold together because they have 100% common goals! I bet Donald Trump finishes with negative electoral votes!
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Jul 27, 2016 20:21
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May 17, 2024 22:20
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- gobbagool
- Feb 5, 2016
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by R. Guyovich
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Doctor Rope
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Can you prove he actually did do this? The only people I've seen support him are poor whites with little education, which isn't exactly a new or growing demographic.
you are contending that Trump's only support are poor whites with little education.
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Jul 27, 2016 20:54
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Jul 27, 2016 20:21
