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  • Locked thread
RisqueBarber
Jul 10, 2005

Sataere posted:

I have decided to not sneak in a cheat and hope Risqué doesn't counter. Good game, sir.

Yeah I was thinking the same thing. I never calculated the bench to see who could out score who but I appreciate it.

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Aredna
Mar 17, 2007
Nap Ghost

spacejung posted:

We'll keep this in mind, guy who made far fewer moves than everyone else.

Hah, wasn't even thinking about that. Got super lucky at the draft this year between a combination of:
* everyone else valuing defense far lower than me (got like 6 of my top 8 and 8 of my top 12 ranked players for the year)
* very few injuries so far
* getting better option between two late tier2 players that had great upside

I'll defend myself and say I did try to spend $300FAAB and Beer outbid me with his dirty (awesome) money.

I would definitely be on the waiver a lot more if I had more bench spots to play around with.

Also I've been a horrible manager all around this year and need to get more focused.

spacejung posted:

Really I just hope we get the manager count back up again I agree w your general frame of argument regarding bench spots.

Definitely hope we do get it back up. I had a thought earlier about maybe extending the league to Reddit and grow it there a bit like NarFFL. Beer is super well known and myself or others could help manage it.

For bench and starters next year - if people are open to it I can do a bit of math and help figure out how we can move some spots to maximize cheating opportunities. The best part of this league though is that a manager making the right starting picks week to week is going to never need to spend cheating money :)

Ninja Bob
Nov 20, 2002




Bleak Gremlin
Part of what I like about this league is that I don't have to agonize as much about sit/start choices, because if I truly can't decide, I just go "gently caress it, I'll throw money at it if I get it wrong". Of course, in practice I've mostly been either winning or losing so definitively it doesn't matter.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



RisqueBarber posted:

Yeah I was thinking the same thing. I never calculated the bench to see who could out score who but I appreciate it.

Yeah, my personal finances just went to poo poo, so trying to stretch my money out. I feel good enough about my standing and ROS that I didn't feel like trying only to have you counter with you bench and then having spent $20 RL bucks to lose to you :v:

If you didn't have the bench scoring to counter though I would have administered the Derek Carr TKO!

89
Feb 24, 2006

#worldchamps
Sorry guys, I accidentally won one last week.

internet inc
Jun 13, 2005

brb
taking pictures
of ur house
:argh:

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



89 posted:

Sorry guys, I accidentally won one last week.

I almost responded to your post about all the handcuffs you grabbed with this very question. :D

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
I loving love this league.

Aredna
Mar 17, 2007
Nap Ghost
I was going to work out scenarios in later weeks to see what was possible, but that win piqued my interest and I started doing some basic stuff in Excel and then ended up building some crazy complicated thing to sim it out several ways.

I cut it back to these 2 for posting and then ran them for more simulations:



This is horrible from a statistical point of view given 4 and 8 data points so I'm open to suggestions. I just took everyone's scores for 4/8 week period, got the mean and the standard deviation, and then generated a random number to find a point on a normal curve and apply it to your numbers.

Another big thing this won't catch is the "best" cheating opportunity so many people reflect lower scores than they can achieve. If anyone knows of a way to easily get all of the detailed week to week data without going to every page I can do the algorithm to figure it all out.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Pain train is aptly named if he is referring to how he feels on a weekly basis. :v:

And don't worry about beer, guys. I'm confident he'll get bumped in the first round of the playoffs.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck Yooooooooooooooooooooou

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
$100!

Aredna
Mar 17, 2007
Nap Ghost
$100 prebid


Winston (21.5) for Newton (14.6) = 6.9
Santos (15) for Tucker (9) = 6
Snead (5.1) for Crabtree (3.8) = 1.3
David (10) for Miller (8.5) = 1.5

+15.7 ($157) total for last week

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Cheating:

Cameron Jordan to JPP $110
Lorenzo to Whitehead $70
Cooper to Montgomery $20

Total $200

internet inc
Jun 13, 2005

brb
taking pictures
of ur house

Aredna posted:

$100 prebid

Matched!

Ninja Bob
Nov 20, 2002




Bleak Gremlin
I'll do a $100 pre-bid this week.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Aredna posted:

$100 prebid


Winston (21.5) for Newton (14.6) = 6.9
Santos (15) for Tucker (9) = 6
Snead (5.1) for Crabtree (3.8) = 1.3
David (10) for Miller (8.5) = 1.5

+15.7 ($157) total for last week

Congrats on securing the victory.

Aredna
Mar 17, 2007
Nap Ghost

Sataere posted:

Congrats on securing the victory.

Thanks!

Yeah, I forgot time changed in the US and was panicking to get it in before you made a last minute post!

spacejung
Feb 8, 2004
I'm not going to pre-cheat this week - BFBG if you're updating monies I think my FAAB nets out to $249 as of today.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

spacejung posted:

I'm not going to pre-cheat this week - BFBG if you're updating monies I think my FAAB nets out to $249 as of today.

Plan on doing it tomorrow.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Aredna posted:

Thanks!

Yeah, I forgot time changed in the US and was panicking to get it in before you made a last minute post!

You were right to panic. I was ready to drop my cheat at two minutes before kickoff

RisqueBarber
Jul 10, 2005

Hey Beer,

Do you ever create a beersheet at the end of year or mid year just to see how the rankings have changed?

Aredna
Mar 17, 2007
Nap Ghost
$100 for 10 points for this week.


Gates (14.3) for Barnage (1.3) for $130 and +13pts
Santos (13) for Tucker (9) for $4 and +4pts

Total last week +27 pts including the 10pt prebid

Ninja Bob
Nov 20, 2002




Bleak Gremlin
Put me down for $100 pre-cheat this week, can't hurt I guess.

I don't think I can mathematically cheat myself to success for last week.

internet inc
Jun 13, 2005

brb
taking pictures
of ur house

Aredna posted:

$100 for 10 points for this week.


Gates (14.3) for Barnage (1.3) for $130 and +13pts
Santos (13) for Tucker (9) for $4 and +4pts

Total last week +27 pts including the 10pt prebid

I'll do Melvin Ingram (18) for Jake Ryan (0) for +18 for a total of +28 if you include the prebid.

No prebid for me this week, though.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
$100 prebid.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



I am regretting not attempting to cheat two weeks ago. I couldn't even cheat to win this last week. But at least I scored the second most points :v:

internet inc
Jun 13, 2005

brb
taking pictures
of ur house
I just donated $30 because apparently I like to overspend on lovely bench players.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

internet inc posted:

I just donated $30 because apparently I like to overspend on lovely bench players.

Added.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Cheating!

$100 pre bid!

Cooper for Green - $152
JPP for Jordan - $205
Burfict for Robinson - $140
Prescott for Luck - $69
Fat Rob for Crowell - $269

Total: $845

Aredna
Mar 17, 2007
Nap Ghost
Landry (11.3) for Snead (5.3)
Joyner (14) for Posluszny (10.5)

+9.5 for the week

$100 prebid next week

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Damnit. Overslept

spacejung
Feb 8, 2004

Sataere posted:

Damnit. Overslept

Wow we woke up at the same time! I freaked out to see your post at least.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



I didn't play you last week. I just gave Spoaenk the win. :(

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
The most shameful thing to do in tyool 2016

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Spoeank posted:

The most shameful thing to do in tyool 2016

I assumed I wouldn't sleep for 12 hours. I probably should have taken into account driving through the night on Tuesday and being awake for 40 straight hours.

RisqueBarber
Jul 10, 2005

Justin Houston 29.5 points and its not even half yet. Best $5 I ever spent.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



RisqueBarber posted:

Justin Houston 29.5 points and its not even half yet. Best $5 I ever spent.

Sitting on my bench in the IDP league, along with my chances of making the playoffs.

RisqueBarber
Jul 10, 2005

Sataere posted:

Sitting on my bench in the IDP league, along with my chances of making the playoffs.

He ended with 49 and won me my week.

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spacejung
Feb 8, 2004
A cheat for last week:

Spencer Ware (10.6) to Tyrell Williams (17) = 6.4

Total: 6.4, $64

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