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Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Cartoon posted:

Do we know what the makeup of the senate crossbench is? That would be actual useful information.

Nope, some results haven't been declared yet.

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Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Wheezle posted:

So did lion hat get in or not?

Unknown, but it is on the cards.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."
Nice avatar.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."
https://twitter.com/AusElectoralCom/status/760709953636200448
https://twitter.com/AusElectoralCom/status/760710475395006464

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9C4uTEEOJlM

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

:pusheen:

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."
There is no way there are still 4 ONP Senators by the end of this Senate term.

E: https://twitter.com/_AdamTodd/status/761041385021583360

The voting system worked pretty well I think.

Doctor Spaceman fucked around with this message at 05:44 on Aug 4, 2016

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Kat Delacour posted:

Is that the national % of the vote against the national proportional representation? It's an unfair calculation.

I keep editing this post cos I'm having trouble right now exactly articulating how I dislike it, but we've already come to terms with Seats of disproportional populations rather than raw percentages as the method of forming government.

National first preference by group (combining the various Coalition parties) compared with number of Senate seats, yeah.
.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."
Hanson is anti-union, yeah. Who the gently caress knows how she'll vote though.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."
McGowan's in favour of it (I think). Katter's voted against it before.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

MysticalMachineGun posted:

Is she pro-bloody-anything?

Flag capes.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

BBJoey posted:

Katter has threatened bloody murder if the coalition so much as brings the ABCC up at the joint sitting. He won't be voting for it.

I think he's voted against it before too, which is a good sign.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Gorbash posted:

Via @pollytics, I give you Senator Elect Malcolm Roberts:

https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/25780781/from-what-i-malcolm-ieuan-roberts-have-seen-galileo-movement

It's going to be a long three to six years

Jesus-loving: Christ.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Zenithe posted:

Can someone explain what is going on, or is it all just pages of just as crazy.

The summary is that he has crazy views on climate science, and his views on the legal system make those look sane and reasonable.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Solemn Sloth posted:

And you know who controls the banks

:thejoke:

Anti-semitism is why Andrew Bolt distanced himself from Malcolm-Ieuan: Roberts.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

quote:

To ultimately give the power of the preference back to the voter I suggested many changes during the electoral reform debate, including complete removal of above the line voting, introducing the Hare-Clarke system and/or introducing a Robson Rotation.
These are good suggestions that should be done (and are already done in Tasmania and the ACT).

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Mad Katter posted:

I don't see the huge problem with it. A Party's second and third candidates are always going to get lower primary votes and rely on the flow of preferences, right?

I don't consider that to be fundamentally undemocratic.

It's not a huge problem, no. Roberts got substantially less than the average second senator (who normally get a few thousand first preferences), but that's probably because he's in a party where the leader's name is also in the party name. The same happened with the second and third NXT Senators.

Might as well do this here:

Addendum to my How STV systems work post.

What is a Robson Rotation?
Currently, parties can select the order of candidates on the ballot paper. This allows them to put their best (ie most factionally important) candidates at the top, giving them a greater chance of being elected.

A Robson Rotation involves using additional ballot papers with the candidates in a different order. This means that every candidate gets to be in the top spot.

Wouldn't you have a huge number of ballots?
It's not necessary to cover every permutation. The simplest approach is to have every candidates at the top and just rotate the order (for four candidates it would be ABCD, BCDA, CDAB, DABC). The ACT experimented with this, but found people were still voting straight ticket, which meant the preference flows tended to go in only a few specific paths, aiding some candidates depending on what position they drew. The solution is to add in more options (most obviously a set like DCBA, CBAD, BADC, ADBC). The ACT has 60 different ballot papers for 5-member electorates, and 420 for the 7-member electorate.

Are there any other effects?
  • Major parties cannot easily privilege certain candidates. While it might be helpful for major parties to spread their quotas around more candidates (eg Singh's actions in Tasmania probably got Labor an extra Senator) there is no guarantee that would help a factional boss on the top of the ticket.
  • It would probably hurt smaller parties a little, since it's a zero sum game.
  • Senate How-to-Vote cards become unworkable, given how many different ballot papers exist.
  • Above-the-Line voting would probably have to be removed.

The Tasmanian Electoral Commission had a paper on it from 2008, comparing the implementation there to the one in the ACT.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

hooman posted:

If each senate paper is written on one atom how are we going to fold it up to put it in the white box?

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."
SHY has joined Xenophon's protest.

Also
https://twitter.com/Colvinius/status/762514728908304384

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Endman posted:

It takes a very special type of person to hear allegations made by children of sexual assault and immediately say "well they lie all the time you know"

A Murdoch op-ed columnist?

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

They're even bringing up the fact that heavy handed paternalistic policing of indigenous children is leading to separating an entire generation from their parents! That makes people create uncomfortable associations to other Australian atrocities!

I bet you can't even name 10 people affected by the Stolen Generation.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

No more than windfarms should pay for coalminers who lose their jobs.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

open24hours posted:

If you want to argue that they shouldn't be compensated at all then ok but if they are going to be shouldn't those who are benefiting from the change be the ones paying for it?

Why should Uber be penalised for coming up with a better* business model than the taxi companies?

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

open24hours posted:

Because their business model is basically just showing up and acting like the rules don't apply to them?

That's a (important, valid) legal issue, not a reason to tax them.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

What if the cake shop was getting more profit than the bakery because they didn't bother to get any food handling certificates and were letting their cake makers work as contractors with the understanding they'd get that poo poo sorted themselves?

Then they should be fined, which isn't the same as taxing them.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."
Looks like Labor and the Coalition are going to screw over the Greens and the crossbench on the 6 year senate terms.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

open24hours posted:

Seems like it's probably the fairest way. Guess they could have had a lottery.
No.

There are two ways of doing it: one is to take the first 6 elected from the DD, one is to do a recount with a normal quota and give the 6 years terms to the people that would have been elected. The recount is nominally the standard method (and the AEC has to do it anyway), but the Senate is under no obligation to follow it. Taking the first 6 is very advantageous to the major parties.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

EvilElmo posted:

You mean by doing the same thing that's happened every other time?
Being consistently unfair isn't a virtue.

It's also ignoring that Labor proposed the recount system, and are now choosing to ignore it for their own benefit.

So what's your assessment of how the Senate Reforms went?

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

EvilElmo posted:

I'm not sure how it's unfair. Both systems have their benefits, both systems will have "losers". In this result, it will get rid of 3 racists, a bigot and two nuts. The Greens should rejoice. You'll get rid of Rhiannon early and pick up another Senator.
Antony Green's got an article on it.

quote:

Senate Reforms are the reason we got 2/4 racists in the Senate. I said they were poo poo, they are poo poo. I'm not sure how many times I need to keep posting this. One day you might all admit the Senate reforms were rushed, poo poo policy and not well thought through.
I know you said they were poo poo before the election, but given we've actually got the results it's an opportunity to look at the specific effects. For example, Singh's election in Tasmania probably wouldn't have happened without BtL voting being made significantly easier. Did too many votes exhaust? Was there an unacceptable increase in informal votes? If you want to complain about the system you've got actual information.

I think there are more racists in the Senate than that too.

quote:

But I guess you all still defend voting down the ETS..
I don't.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

EvilElmo posted:

Like, no it really is.

We got 2 from the DD because of the smaller quota. Then another 2 from the Senate reforms.
ONP got 600k first preferences in the Senate nation-wide, for about 5% of the vote. The system is accurately representing that a lot of Australians are massive loving racists.

quote:

It would appear you want all 4 of the One Nation Senators to run out the full 6 years though.
The second ONP senator in Queensland got the 11th spot, the second one in NSW got the 12th spot, and the first in WA got 11th. They're not going to get 6 year terms under either order-of-election or a recount.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

EvilElmo posted:

Interesting article, will read on a not-Friday night. But there will be winners and losers, would I be on board if it wasn't going to result with 3 One Nation Senators staying full term? Maybe.
(In case you missed my previous post, given the parallel responses) Aside from Hanson the ONP Senators got 11th (WA), 11th (NSW) and 12th (Queensland), so I think it's unlikely they'd get full terms unless you literally pull them out of the hat.

E: If you want more reading, The Conversation had a piece on how many votes exhausted and a breakdown of some examples.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."
Bonham has a good piece about the short and long Senate terms.

The practical effects:

quote:

The Electoral Act requires the AEC to conduct a "Section 282 recount" to simulate which Senators would have filled the first six places at a half-Senate election based on the same votes, as an alternative to using the order-of-election method. However there is no requirement that the Senate use the recount to decide the order. While the Senate affirmed in both 1998 and 2010 that the recount should be used, those decisions were not binding on the current Senate, and were [not binding] under the old system anyway.

It happens that both major parties benefit from the agreement. Senators Lee Rhiannon (Greens NSW) and Derryn Hinch (Vic) are both given three year terms while Scott Ryan (Liberal, Victoria) and Deborah O'Neill (Labor, NSW) will not have to look for work again until at least 2022 (unless there is another double dissolution). This difference had previously been found by Grahame Bowland and the AEC has advised the Clerk of the Senate that Rhiannon and Hinch would get six-year terms if the Section 282 recount was the deciding factor.

Some examples

quote:

I'll use Rhiannon's case as an example. Her primary vote was 0.947 quotas (including 1 Greens ticket votes). Because she was short of a quota on primary votes, she had to wait until the cascading surpluses at the start of the count elected eight major party candidates. But had she polled a quota in her own right (just another 0.41% of the primary vote) she would have been elected third and won a six-year term.

On the other side of that coin, Jacqui Lambie polled a primary vote of 1.068 quotas in her own right (including ticket votes). This meant Lambie was elected fourth by the order-of-election method, and therefore gets a six-year term. Yet the massive surpluses of the Tasmanian major party ticket leaders Abetz and Urquhart actually meant that seven Senators who won either on primaries or on cascading surpluses had more "support" than Lambie did. Thus, as a sign of her support relative to these major party candidates, one might say that her having polled a DD quota on primaries was far from conclusive.
...
The order of election system is also absurdly granular. In Tasmania the two major parties have about the same vote (Labor 33.6 Liberal 32.5) and get two six-year terms apiece. But this would also happen if the figures were Labor 46 Liberal 20, or the other way around.

:siren: Paging EvilElmo :siren:

quote:

There are issues, however, and a lot of them are created by the unexpected interface between the new Senate system and Section 282, which was written under a different system. Because the government left the implementation of Senate reform very late in its previous term (whether to avoid provoking the non-Green crossbench, in the hope of bipartisan support or simply because it was distracted by leadership fighting) a number of finer details were glossed over for the first run of the new system. The matter of the fairest term-allocation system, which had long been on the back-burner anyway, was one that was so obscure that it wasn't even on most psephologists' shopping lists for things to fix for the new system.

quote:

That's not to say S 282 is less fair than the order-of-election system. I think it's still fairer - just that it's hardly brilliant and it is worth a serious think about whether there could be a better approach than either for the new voting system.

There are also many ambiguities in applying S 282 to the new system. Some of these existed in the old system as well (The AEC recommended fixing them in 2011 but it never happened).

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

starkebn posted:

It's there an article someone can point me too that discusses why each state has 12 senators and what the pro and con arguments are? It's not an intuitive way for the system to be set up.

Clark, Griffith and Kingston were all from smaller states :v:

E: The constitutional requirement is for the original states to have an equal number of Senators. It was originally 6 per state but was increased to 12 in 1984. If, say, NT became a state there is no actual obligation to give then 12 Senators.

Doctor Spaceman fucked around with this message at 02:18 on Aug 13, 2016

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

eXXon posted:

Was Q&A better in the past because every time I watch it there is at least one token loud idiot?

It can be pretty good if there are no (Australian) politicians / op-ed columnists, or if the subject isn't something that devolves into petty partisan bickering. The one last week on Trump wasn't bad, and the overseas ones are generally worth a watch. It's when you get a panel that looks like Coalition MP / Labor MP / Crossbencher / Murdoch columnist / left-wing think tanker that it's complete garbage.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."
https://twitter.com/TheKouk/status/765012654502977536

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Anidav posted:

Prime Minister Hunt would be a coal miners wet dream.

I think he'd just be a less charismatic and arrogant Turnbull.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."
https://twitter.com/workmanalice/status/765449240982073345

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Solemn Sloth posted:

paul keatings a fuckboi with lovely policies on just about everything who is idolised by idiots because he pulls out sick burns on people they don't like

I don't even think his burns were that sick.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

EvilElmo posted:

8 posts.

New record for these threads.

Institutional torture is kinda in the news a lot these days.

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Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."
Trey Parker and Matt Stone did a show called "That's My Bush!" in the weird pre-9/11 era of his administration, but it was more about poking fun at sitcom tropes.

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