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Some Numbers
Sep 28, 2006

"LET'S GET DOWN TO WORK!!"
How important is the fourth Moment's Peace? Would replacing Pyro/Hydro with REB/BEB seriously dent any matchups?

What does the Gut Shot come in against?

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Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.

Some Numbers posted:

How important is the fourth Moment's Peace? Would replacing Pyro/Hydro with REB/BEB seriously dent any matchups?

What does the Gut Shot come in against?

I cut the fourth Moment's Peace for a second Teachings, check my list from the latest challenge when it gets posted tomorrow (got ninth, 5 of my 7 opponents lost their last round, rip) for my latest list.

Play whatever 'Blasts you want. If you're running Weather the Storm then you'll want Pyro/Hydro, but that card sucks. REB/BEB technically are better at destroying blue/red permanents if someone has a Flagbearer in play, but that's not a realistic scenario since Standard Bearer does literally nothing against Tron.

Gut Shot comes in against Spellstutter Sprite/Delver, Stompy, Elves, Tribe, and Firebrand Archer if someone is still running that in Burn. It's cuttable but it dramatically effects the Tribe and Delver matchups.

Silhouette
Nov 16, 2002

SONIC BOOM!!!

Is Tribe even still a thing without Gush and Probe?

Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.

Silhouette posted:

Is Tribe even still a thing without Gush and Probe?

I've faced it a reasonable amount, but the deck is tremendously worse without Probe, like Infect in Modern.

Some Numbers
Sep 28, 2006

"LET'S GET DOWN TO WORK!!"
Looking at the Pauper Challenge from yesterday, Stompy looks like it did really really well.

But Tron should completely dumpster it, right?

Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.

Some Numbers posted:

Looking at the Pauper Challenge from yesterday, Stompy looks like it did really really well.

But Tron should completely dumpster it, right?

if it gets matched against it, yes

Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.
I top eighted the Pauper MCQ on MTGO today. I lost in the top 8. I'm not particularly happy with how I lost. My Jeskai opponent multiple times just tapped all their mana, such that if one of the 6 cards in my hand were a spell, or the card I drew for the turn were a spell, they would have immediately lost, but alas, I could not punish them, for I had drawn all the lands.



I drew another Power Plant the turn after this.

also beat Stompy 4 times, Jeskai 3 times, Burn once and lost to Atog combo to make the top 8, the format is fuckin' dying.

GoutPatrol
Oct 17, 2009

*Stupid Babby*

So you're telling me to unban Sinkhole?

Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.

GoutPatrol posted:

So you're telling me to unban Sinkhole?

yeah i guess that would get people to stop playing bouncelands

Some Numbers
Sep 28, 2006

"LET'S GET DOWN TO WORK!!"
I really hope that they don't ban a key card from your Tron deck, because I just bought the rest of the deck.

Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.

Some Numbers posted:

I really hope that they don't ban a key card from your Tron deck, because I just bought the rest of the deck.

i mean they need to ban astrolabe and tron eventually but it won't be on monday, you've got time

Some Numbers
Sep 28, 2006

"LET'S GET DOWN TO WORK!!"

Hellsau posted:

i mean they need to ban astrolabe and tron eventually but it won't be on monday, you've got time

Tournament's on the 31st, so that would be ideal.

Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.
Well if you want to watch me play way too much Tron, against way too much Stompy and Jeskai, then behold - my MCQ run. Given how much Stompy and Jeskai there was here, my deck choice was optimal and I do not think a deck exists that has better combined matchups against Stompy and Jeskai.

Now that the metagame has crystalized I'm gonna finally do a big write-up on the deck with a "sideboard guide" which is more just a rant about how sideboard guides suck and my advice of which cards are cuttable and which are good. Check back Monday or Tuesday.

Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.
Speaking of too much Tron, I top 8ed the Pauper Challenge after running back the same deck. This deck is very good if you can play fast. I probably should have a single Serene Heart in the board as a silver bullet against Hexproof, which won the MCQ, but I didn't feel like trading for one so whatever.

oh also thanks to the weekend challenges and changes to the league system, Tron has been way more profitable than Drake was for me in a much shorter amount of time:



already sold like 400 chests, waiting for them to climb over 2.4 tix each before offloading them

or maybe just crack them like the degenerate gambler i am

Hellsau fucked around with this message at 03:44 on Aug 26, 2019

Some Numbers
Sep 28, 2006

"LET'S GET DOWN TO WORK!!"
Wow, game 2 against the Bogles player was completely baffling.

suicidesteve
Jan 4, 2006

"Life is a maze. This is one of its dead ends.


They didn't Skred the wall because they only had 3 snow permanents.

Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.

suicidesteve posted:

They didn't Skred the wall because they only had 3 snow permanents.

Yeah someone commented that already, lol that deck is fuckin' atrocious when it blanks on Astrolabe.

Flea Bargain
Dec 9, 2008

'Twas brillig


Just wanted to say I watch all your videos Hellsau, I learn a lot about sequencing and lines. Looks like the second mystical teachings being back in the deck enables a lot, will have to make that change. I'm 3-1 in that league, lost to UB Zuberas lol.

Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.

Flea Bargain posted:

Just wanted to say I watch all your videos Hellsau, I learn a lot about sequencing and lines. Looks like the second mystical teachings being back in the deck enables a lot, will have to make that change. I'm 3-1 in that league, lost to UB Zuberas lol.

The second Teachings does help, but it also noticably effects the aggro matchups not having the sixth plain anti-combat card, since sometimes you don't hit Tron + double colored mana to Teachings and cast a Peace on turn four where just playing a Stonehorn would allow you to win. I'm thinking there may be a different build of the deck that goes down to 20 lands, 4 Maps, but that's going to require some finesse to get it functional.

But first let's see if I can finish this sideboard guide.

Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.
People playing my Tron list in Rags to Riches today, good luck! The deck is busted, try not to draw any matches. I haven't finished my matchups guide, but I have the sideboarding for all the decks that matter (if you play against Storm or Freed or TortEx then figure it out yourself, there's too many possible builds for me to go into such a niche deck) so even if I haven't actually fleshed out the matchup guide, at least you'll have a general idea of what to take out and put in.

this is a lot of words holy poo poo and i'm like half done, fuuuuuck i haven't even done the intro/outro yet and the formatting is effed up whether i post it here or on pastebin, whatever good luck

https://pastebin.com/ZxmghQQp

Some Numbers
Sep 28, 2006

"LET'S GET DOWN TO WORK!!"
I sadly got sick yesterday so I’m sitting this one out.

Also in my super abbreviated play testing, I had a lot of trouble assembling what I needed to actually win the game.

born on a buy you
Aug 14, 2005

Odd Fullback
Bird Gang
Sack Them All
2-0 so far. Beat burn and bogles.

Framboise
Sep 21, 2014

To make yourself feel better, you make it so you'll never give in to your forevers and live for always.


Lipstick Apathy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifS0NtAD-sc

Looks like the Professor covered Stonehorn Tron.

Kabuki Shipoopi
Jun 22, 2007

If I fall, you don't get the head, right? If you lose the head, you're fucked!

That's my flgs! :dance:

He beefed up the name though, it's Livonia (Liv-own-yah)
I'm the guy prepping the new space for the tournament. Hopefully the drywall guys can get in soon so we can get this place in shape.

It's gonna be a blast, and a ton of people are showing just to meet him. If any of you guys are interested, here is the FB page for the event:

https://www.facebook.com/events/2395411484006177/?ti=as

The local pauper scene is pretty chill, and there will be free tacos for those participating in the event!

Flea Bargain
Dec 9, 2008

'Twas brillig


@Hellsau, grats on winning the Challenge. Tron is so busted, esp the new configuration with less Stonehorns and Moments Peace when you play against nothing but Jeskai.

Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.

Flea Bargain posted:

@Hellsau, grats on winning the Challenge. Tron is so busted, esp the new configuration with less Stonehorns and Moments Peace when you play against nothing but Jeskai.

Against some builds of Jeskai, the ones with 4 Seeker 4 Hawk 4 Skyfisher, the anti-combat cards are still good. And yeah, Tron is super busto if you can play fast - another Tron player went 5-2 and missed on breakers, and one of the matches they lost went to a round time of 57:38, so they were a couple seconds away from a win and a top 8 record.

anyway here's my challenge run and also ban tron/astrolabe/ephemerate/flicker/delver/foil

Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.
Tron is a problem:



Not as obviously insane as Drake but that's some messed up results.

Flea Bargain
Dec 9, 2008

'Twas brillig


44-9 is no joke, jesus.

If people haven't watched Caleb Gannon's Fishelbrand deck yet, this is a pro click

Framboise
Sep 21, 2014

To make yourself feel better, you make it so you'll never give in to your forevers and live for always.


Lipstick Apathy
In some fairness, how much of that is Tron being busted, and how much of it is Hellsau just being really good at Magic?

Flea Bargain
Dec 9, 2008

'Twas brillig


Framboise posted:

In some fairness, how much of that is Tron being busted, and how much of it is Hellsau just being really good at Magic?

The best pros have lifetime winrates around 65%, Hellsau is close to 80% winrate. You can't really extrapolate that into anything beyond that even if Hellsau is very, very good and that sample is representative (probably not) then Tron is totally busted (it still definitely is)

Flea Bargain fucked around with this message at 14:40 on Sep 11, 2019

Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.

Framboise posted:

In some fairness, how much of that is Tron being busted, and how much of it is Hellsau just being really good at Magic?

And how much of it is that I just had the good side of variance there? I wouldn't have posted a screengrab if I'd gone like 30-20 or whatever, but in that image I went 0-2 drop from a league, and aside from that I went 4-1 six times then 5-0 twice plus winning a Challenge undefeated, which is obscene. I also went 4-1 in the next league after that, losing a squeaker to Stompy.

The real hosed up thing is that I think Tron's worst matchup is like 45%, and also doesn't exist because it's the Jeskai Astrolabe deck with 4 Seeker 4 Glint Hawk 4 Skyfisher which apparently isn't good in the mirror, and the mirror is everywhere. I figured when they banned Gush/Probe/Daze(lol) that Tron would take over, and then Tron would metagame against itself until it didn't win, but I didn't predict that WotC would print several cards that made Tron way better and also created another archetype that was much easier for people to play, way more busted than anything other than Tron, and also would then metagame against itself while all the Tron players either got fed up with the format and left or just kept Tronning people while treating the mirror as the coinflip it is.

Framboise
Sep 21, 2014

To make yourself feel better, you make it so you'll never give in to your forevers and live for always.


Lipstick Apathy
Wow. That's really loving good then.

little munchkin
Aug 15, 2010
i did one league with tron since horizons and the bannings, played against jeskai ephemerate three times, and decided I was done with the format until something changes

Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.

little munchkin posted:

i did one league with tron since horizons and the bannings, played against jeskai ephemerate three times, and decided I was done with the format until something changes

there are so many people who think Astrolabe is no different than Ash Barrens and that it's not that powerful, it's just a mana fixer, i'm getting real anxious because the next B&R restriction is October 7th, so either they make the correct choice and ban several cards in a month, or they wait way too drat long to ban anything like they did for Drake and Gush, or they ban an incomplete set of cards and one deck becomes the clear tier 0, or they pass on the next announcement and ban stuff shortly before the Format Championships and it fucks everything up

little munchkin
Aug 15, 2010

Hellsau posted:

there are so many people who think Astrolabe is no different than Ash Barrens and that it's not that powerful, it's just a mana fixer, i'm getting real anxious because the next B&R restriction is October 7th, so either they make the correct choice and ban several cards in a month, or they wait way too drat long to ban anything like they did for Drake and Gush, or they ban an incomplete set of cards and one deck becomes the clear tier 0, or they pass on the next announcement and ban stuff shortly before the Format Championships and it fucks everything up

in a healthy format astrolabe would be fine but we live in a world where flickering/bouncing your own permanents was already the best thing to do and now those decks get to be one mana faster than they used to be

suicidesteve
Jan 4, 2006

"Life is a maze. This is one of its dead ends.


Hellsau posted:

there are so many people who think Astrolabe is no different than Ash Barrens and that it's not that powerful, it's just a mana fixer, i'm getting real anxious because the next B&R restriction is October 7th, so either they make the correct choice and ban several cards in a month, or they wait way too drat long to ban anything like they did for Drake and Gush, or they ban an incomplete set of cards and one deck becomes the clear tier 0, or they pass on the next announcement and ban stuff shortly before the Format Championships and it fucks everything up

You know which one of these is going to happen, right?

BGrifter
Mar 16, 2007

Winner of Something Awful PS5 thread's Posting Excellence Award June 2022

Congratulations!
It's bizarre how quickly the format becomes unplayably toxic in MTGO, yet manages to be diverse and thriving in paper. I guess when you can play hundreds of games a week of something it's less interesting than when you play ten games a week at your LGS.

I don't know how Wizards could possibly keep the MTGO community happy at the pace they chew through and "solve" metas resulting in stagnation, while still keeping the format interesting and accessible to the paper community. Significant quarterly bans in MTGO would probably do it, but Timmy won't even have time for his order from TCGPlayer to arrive before discovering core pieces of his deck are banned.

Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.

BGrifter posted:

It's bizarre how quickly the format becomes unplayably toxic in MTGO, yet manages to be diverse and thriving in paper. I guess when you can play hundreds of games a week of something it's less interesting than when you play ten games a week at your LGS.

I don't know how Wizards could possibly keep the MTGO community happy at the pace they chew through and "solve" metas resulting in stagnation, while still keeping the format interesting and accessible to the paper community. Significant quarterly bans in MTGO would probably do it, but Timmy won't even have time for his order from TCGPlayer to arrive before discovering core pieces of his deck are banned.

I mean there's no major Pauper tournaments to incentivize pros to crack the format, and most people who want to play Pauper just wanna play whatever cool deck they fancy, so an LGS metagame can just be a bunch of people playing a pile of decks. WotC has done a good job hiding metagame information. It's only really a problem when something rises clear above all the other decks. Maybe they should stop downshifting or printing obviously broken poo poo without preemptively banning it in Pauper. Peregrine Drake was an excellent addition to Eternal Masters drafts, and they should have seen Cloud of Faeries was banned and just immediately banned Drake instead of waiting for five months. Foil added nothing to its draft format and should never have been downshifted, and I am convinced it was only downshifted because one guy with bad opinions wanted it in Pauper (and this is the reason Daze was banned out of nowhere instead of Foil, they didn't want to own their mistake). Most of the problems with Pauper stem from WotC's slow/puzzling handling of the format.

Astrolabe is an obvious mistake for Pauper. Astrolabe was great for Modern Horizons draft, and apparently is fine in Modern somehow, but holy poo poo it was bad for Pauper. Prophetic Prism was the best card in Tron, and the best card in the Glint Hawk/Kor Skyfisher decks. Astrolabe is Prophetic Prism that requires minor edits to the manabase (and honestly incentivizing the Boros decks to stop playing garbage situational lands like Bojuka Bog or Radiant Fountain probably helped more than it hurt) and makes every bounce tremendously more efficient. If you were playing pre-Astrolabe, Boros Monarch's best open was turn 1 Inspector, turn 2 Prism, turn 3 Hawk + Prism, turn 4 Skyfisher+Prism or Palace Sentinels. Now its best open is turn 1 Astrolabe, turn 2 Hawk+Astrolabe, turn 3 Hawk+Astrolabe+Hawk or Skyfisher+Astrolabe, which is way more mana efficient and puts way more power in play way faster.

Ephermerate wasn't an obvious mistake, though I've played against (bad) Cloudshift blink decks and Ephemerate is insane compared to that card. The interaction between Mulldrifter + Ephemerate is absurd, it costs so little that it leads to unbeatable loops far too easily, and it makes graveyard hate hilariously bad. One of Mulldrifter or Ephemerate have to go, and they probably should ban the 1 mana card.

Tron should have been banned years ago because it is stupid. Delver should have been banned years ago due to metagame share when there aren't other huge mistakes ruining the format. There are no downsides to banning Flicker and Foil.

Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.
Here's an interview with Chris Van Meter where he claims that Daze is broken, Probe is fine, and Burn is the best deck in the format.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoYyHDNodXQ

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Hellsau
Jan 14, 2010

NEVER FUCKING TAKE A NIGHT OFF CLAN WARS.
speaking of interviews, i did an interview

https://audioboom.com/posts/7369311-tron-makes-fools-of-us-all-ft-hellsau

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