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InTrade apparently doesn't exist anymore but it used to allow you to place money on events occurring and buy and sell already placed bets before the event took place. The price of these bets, though, was reflected by what people were willing to pay for the right to bet on X event rather than the actual odds of that event occurring. Because the market price for the presidential election was reported in news cycles as having some predictive value, Mitt Romney surrogates routinely bought out bets for Obama to win the election, inflating the price of his bets and making it seem like his probability of winning was higher than what vegas odds were predicting. If you placed large bets when these buy-outs were occurring, you could get your bets matched 1:1 (or even better) late enough in the election cycle when it was obvious that Romney had no pathway to victory and vegas odds gave 80+% probability to Obama. You could buy an option for Obama to win, set your automatic purchasing program to purchase it when someone was offering odds better than even money, and by the next day someone will have bought you out. There were a number of other high-profile events where the betting was impacted by people more interested in manipulating the perceived odds than winning the bet but this was the most egregious example.
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Aug 14, 2016 07:14
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Kuato posted:Winning is fun, which is why I gamble. I also make OK money so can absorb losses. My boss brings in 10k to the Casino every other week to play with; its basically walking around money for him. Lucky bastard. Please get him to play poker
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Aug 14, 2016 08:36
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Serrath posted:InTrade apparently doesn't exist anymore but it used to allow you to place money on events occurring and buy and sell already placed bets before the event took place. The price of these bets, though, was reflected by what people were willing to pay for the right to bet on X event rather than the actual odds of that event occurring. Because the market price for the presidential election was reported in news cycles as having some predictive value, Mitt Romney surrogates routinely bought out bets for Obama to win the election, inflating the price of his bets and making it seem like his probability of winning was higher than what vegas odds were predicting. Welcum to my hedge fund
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Aug 14, 2016 08:38
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