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Argue posted:News is only coming in just now but there was an explosion in Davao, which as you guys will recall is where Duterte was Mayor before his ascension. Nothing is known yet about whether or not this is political but I thought it might be worth mentioning just in case this develops into something. Plus you just know the pro-Duterte crowd isn't gonna shut up about this. https://twitter.com/cnnphilippines/status/771720932293390338 Not to jump to conclusions but this is probably gonna be an ASG retaliation to his crackdown in the Sulu archipelago, yeah?
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Sep 2, 2016 17:28
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He's also already regretting the insult: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/duterte-expresses-regret-over-obama-comments-spokesman/3103660.html So we're basically following the same track as his insult to the Pope last year. Meeting is being rescheduled for a later date now. Who would've thought spouting bullshit off of the top of your head could have negative repercussions? Welcome to the big leagues, Rody, we're not in Davao anymore.
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Sep 6, 2016 05:57
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Argue posted:That's by his spokesman, so I'm just waiting for him to deny that just like he denied the rape joke apology when his team apologized for him. Christ, I forgot about when he wouldn't let them walk that one back. Well, fingers crossed he still wants to meet with Obama I guess?
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Sep 6, 2016 06:31
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He already did respond this morning. "China wouldn't provide a red carpet stairway from Air Force One and then Philippines President calls Obama "the son of a whore." Terrible!" So the focus was on the insults to America, but with Trump's twitter feed as context, was just an opportunity to point to someone getting one over on Obama.
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Sep 7, 2016 06:03
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gradenko_2000 posted:One of the big bullet points of the Duterte campaign was "results, right now, at any price". Like, Duterte's gone on record as saying that if he was elected, he would wage a "bloody" war on drugs. It seems obvious, but for a good picture of how he would like the presidency to operate, look at how he ran the show as mayor in Davao for 20-some-odd years. The city council was a rubber stamp body and anything he wanted to do (curfew, smoking ban, death squads) just happened because he willed it so. Now he wants to do the same thing but for the whole country, and when the Senate gets in his way/questions things like De Lima, you see his reaction. I would absolutely not bet against him declaring a revolutionary government and dissolving Congress.
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Sep 9, 2016 23:08
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The social media aspect of all of this is both really interesting and very confusing. The Duterte cheerleaders (cringingly dubbed 'Dutertards' by opponents) were rabid during the election, swamping all the polls in his favor, blasting media sources for bias, etc. They're still very active, faithfully defending all of his actions against any sliver of criticism, but the anti-duterte crowd has also swollen, really in the last two weeks, so there are major clashes on FB and on the comments sections of a lot of stories. I'm seeing much more negative sentiment against him than ever before. But there are also allegations from each side that the other is paying a decoted social media attack squad. I've heard experts on PH talk about the Duterte team paying commenters, akin to the Chinese 50 cent trolls. But Rappler had some interesting data during the election showing suspicious patterns of social media support (in polls especially) for Mar Roxas, the previous president's chosen heir, that traced back to clickfarms in India and Bangladesh. There's a weird war going on in the comments sections that really inteigues me.
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Sep 13, 2016 19:39
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ModernMajorGeneral posted:Who in the Philippines would support some kind of strategic pivot to China? Surely the maritime claims issues make the PRC poison to right wing nationalists. This is just lazy rhetoric to upset the US right? Not many. Pew surveys from last year put PH approval of China somewhere below 50%. Approval of the US was at around 90 -- higher than even US citizens' approval of the US. The drug war garners a lot of support but this is much less popular-- but that's of course why he didn't say these things on the campaign trail.
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Sep 14, 2016 00:30
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SynthOrange posted:A Filipino former militiaman testified before the country’s Senate on Thursday that President Rodrigo Duterte, when he was still a city mayor, ordered him and other members of a liquidation squad to kill criminals and opponents in gangland-style assaults that left about 1,000 dead. If I were Matobato I would be very concerned for my life right now. If his testimony bears out or leads to any concrete evidence the LP will push hard for impeachment on this to get Duterte out of office.
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Sep 15, 2016 14:05
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gradenko_2000 posted:I'd consider impeachment to be a distant possibility even if Matobato turns out to be an absolute slam-dunk (which he won't be, the campaign to discredit him has already begun and he's only human, with a standard flawed human memory). Absolutely, I don't mean to say impeachment would be certain. But calling the PH congress "fickle" is an understatement, they'll change parties with a stiff breeze. If they had a hint that Duterte might be in trouble they'd jump ship so fast. So my point is that if Matobato provides anything more concrete than scary bedtime stories of the DDS, that can't be just handwaved away as ranting of a crazed/coached witness... Bato would want to shut him up quick. It may not play out that way but I wouldnt put it past any of these characters.
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Sep 15, 2016 23:38
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gradenko_2000 posted:I wrote-up an effort post of trying to verify some of Matobato's claims, as well as verify the counter-points that the various Senators tried to use to poke holes in his story. This is excellent. Thank you. A lot of it is stuff that I wasn't aware of because I've only been tracking the Philippines for about 3 years now but this is all really useful to me. As far as Matobato's testimony-- I'm certainly willing to listen and hear what he has to say. Cayetano's little "gotcha!" moment when he called the packing tape masking tape was such a laughably lovely moment, it's clear they're just trying to discredit the guy however they can. Same with Cayetano badgering him about the WPP and who was hiding him before the probe until Trillanes stepped in and they just started squabbling... I think Matobato has the administration nervous and that makes me very curious what he has to say. But it's going to have to be something substantive if the LP really wants to pin something on Duterte-- or else they need all of Duterte's other foibles to catch up to him, and for the war on crime not to wrap up in 6 months as he claimed it would, so that his 91% approval tanks and the House gets too nervous to prop him up any longer. I just see all of this as part of a long game. Trillanes said even before the election that if Duterte won, a coup would be necessary. And that's a guy who has made coups and mutinies a side career for himself so he knows them.
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Sep 16, 2016 05:10
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A Filipino friend posted about the EJKs and I responded in kind. Then some other Filipino guy he knows came in with "Oust Duterte! Install Yellow Oligarch and American puppets! " and 20 minutes later "It's obvious that Duterte is behind all the deaths and killings as De Lima said. The Philippines doesn't need a mass murderer. What the Philippines need is a president who is completely loyal to US and oligarchic interests." I made the mistake of arguing that just because Duterte is allowing this poo poo to go down doesn't mean people are calling for an ouster, and you can criticize him without calling for a coup. Now he's asking me why I am against human rights. I can't loving handle these people, how do you respond when someone doesn't have a grasp of logic or rhetoric?
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Sep 21, 2016 04:04
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gradenko_2000 posted:A more cynical person might say that the reason he does so many addresses to military formations is that he's currying favor with them for the eventual take-over. You'll notice a lot of the articles I post also open with "to the xth Infantry Division". I don't know how cynical you really have to be to think this. He has also promised to double AFP and PNP salaries, hasn't he? Maybe I'm a pessimist but it seems readily apparent that he at least wants them to be neutral if not strong supporters of his. Ugh Noynoy why couldn't you have dropped that boring tool Mar and supported Grace from the start
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Sep 21, 2016 14:39
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That sort of "next in line" entitlement is exactly why people couldnt stand Roxas though wasnt it? I mean in addition to being ineffective as DOTC chief. Grace was bogged down by the ridiculous citizenship questions but I was under the impression that a lot of the Rizalito David/Kit Tatad et al support for that was Roxas surrogates trying to drag her down (well, Tatad I guess, David I think just has a ridiculous grudge still from losing in 2013). I guess you have a point that Roxas' thorough entrenchment in the LP gives him a lot of leverage but it just feels like Aquino's loyalty to him hosed things up. It was clear people weren't excited by Roxas. Wasn't Poe leading the pack from when the SC cleared her until a few weeks before the election when her husband's US military experience became an issue? I mean say what you will about how it would have played out if she'd run for VP on the LP ticket, but I think it was fair for her to say she made a more inspiring candidate than Roxas. CronoGamer fucked around with this message at 16:28 on Sep 21, 2016 |
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Sep 21, 2016 16:26
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I'm also really loving sick of that "91% approval" line that every rear end keeps quoting. It is from a Pulse Asia survey that was conducted July 2-8... i.e., the first week of Duterte's presidency. It is a baseline that will show how people react to his policies and screw-ups after they take place, but everyone keeps goddamn pointing to it and saying "look, 91% approval, that means people are totally on board with extrajudicial killings," when it means nothing of the loving sort. Also it was 91% trust not 91% approval but the hell if anyone pays attention to these things. Really looking forward to SWS or Pulse's next round in October or November to see if there is actually any impact.
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Sep 25, 2016 06:07
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Fojar38 posted:Mm yes an Alliance with Russia, a country with no significant ability to project power from its borders, with one lovely carrier that needs a tugboat escort, whose closest military installation is a supply depot in Vietnam, is definitely a viable alternative to the US when it comes to a military alliance for the Philippines Not that I ever like to offer up a defense of Duterte, but he did expressly say he means trade and commerce alliances (like RCEP, I presume) and not military alliances. How this squares with his threats to buy arms from Moscow and Beijing, I don't know. At this point I would not be shocked to see him abrogate the EDCA or the VFA, to be honest.
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Sep 26, 2016 17:33
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GMA news has CCTV footage of what looks like a standard extrajudicial killing here . They crop out the actual gunshots, but you see his body lying in the street at the end, so forewarned is forearmed. The packing tape and dumping in the street make this look like a vigilante murder but I didn't see anything about a "PUSHER AKO" sign or anything so it's not entirely clear if this is related to the drug killings. Regardless, this sort of poo poo takes place a lot under the guise of the "war on drugs."quote:An unidentified man's killing was caught by a CCTV camera in Caloocan City, early Monday.
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Sep 27, 2016 22:59
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Just saw this in Philstar today-- US senators reconsider assistance to Philippines amid drug war There have been rumblings of invoking the Leahy Law for a few weeks now, so I'm not surprised to see this. But if we thought Duterte was pissy at the US over human rights concerns before, just imagine how he'll be when we cancel assistance packages like the $79 million we gave last year under the SEAsia Maritime Security Initiative...
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Sep 28, 2016 05:31
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Not entirely human rights focused, but in the continuing annals of amateur foreign policy, Duterte just announced he is ending US-PH military exercises after the PHIBLEX amphibious landing exercises next week. http://www.rappler.com/nation/147643-duterte-last-ph-us-military-exercises quote:HANOI, Vietnam – President Rodrigo Duterte said on Wednesday night, September 28, that the next joint military exercises between the Philippines and the United States will be the "last" under his term, as he does not want to antagonize China. The Balikatan exercises have been a pretty big deal for a number of years. This would be a blow to the AFP for sure. Very curious to see how DefSec Lorenzana takes this news...
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Sep 28, 2016 16:35
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Vyacheslav posted:Got it. Since I assume Duterte knows all that as well, is he making noise in order to scare up some bennies from the US, or do we really not have a grip on his logic? If he's trying to get things from the US he's going about it in just about the most rear end-backwards way possible. US military assistance to the Philippines has been fairly robust (nothing like Egypt or Israel or anything like that, but robust within a regional context)-- helping modernize the Armed Forces Philippines, numerous training exercises each year, ongoing surveillance and reconnaissance support in the fight against Abu Sayyaf, even gave them another patrol boat this year, which I think means more than half of the largest ships in the Philippine navy are from the US. And in 2014 they signed the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, which essentially is a deal where the US will build up a number of PH bases to top-of-the-line standards in return for the ability to pre-position assets there (and use them in the event of a conflict) Outside the military, assistance is big too-- a Partnership for Growth with USAID, Peace Corps, serious humanitarian/disaster relief after recent typhoons, etc. By going completely off the rails he has turned the Philippines from one of the most rock-solid, dependable US partners in Asia into a chaotic mess that will certainly give pause to any policymakers looking to boost cooperation or aid in SE Asia. I don't think Duterte's trying to get things from the US, I think he's trying to get them from China. But doing it in such a haphazard manner doesn't seem to make sense-- he isn't forcing Beijing to negotiate, he's just giving it away.
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Sep 29, 2016 00:13
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Treaty's a treaty. The U.S. will absolutely 100% not abrogate it short of Duterte declaring war and attacking the US embassy, no chance. e: Well, unless it's President Duterte vs. President Trump... then who the gently caress knows. But I still doubt it.
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Sep 29, 2016 00:23
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gradenko_2000 posted:this is going to be a losing issue for him, not the least of which is because it exposes the Foreign Secretary and the Press Secretary as either being incompetent, or unaligned with the President, or both as they keep having to deflect Duterte's ramblings. Did you see Yasay after Duterte's speech in Hanoi? Some folks from Rappler stopped him to ask what "final joint exercises with US meant" and he just straight up denied Duterte had literally just said that. He just related it back to the "no joint patrols in the South China Sea" line instead of acknowledging the speech he'd just watched. I don't loving understand how that guy is still in his job, even knowing full well he's just keeping the seat warm for Cayetano.
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Sep 29, 2016 05:01
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keevo posted:Didn't he threaten to kick out the military? He said that U.S. advisers stationed in Mindanao (the southern island with the different insurgent groups) should leave... even though there are only about 200 of them at most and they don't really leave the base, just assist the Armed Forces Philippines with surveillance and reconnaissance. Forcing the US advisers to leave would be a stupid move that hampers the AFP's ability to gather information on groups they're fighting, but it wouldn't be the end of the world. If he cancels the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement or (even worse) the Visiting Forces Agreement, though, I think he will end up in trouble-- but not with the United States, with his own military. They're already baffled and unhappy with some of his latest pronouncements about canceling joint exercises and patrols to placate China, if he kicks the US out altogether they will be really upset.
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Oct 1, 2016 01:55
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Rigged Death Trap posted:
They haven't published any significant polls since the 91% one that came out in the first week of his presidency. New ones should be coming toward the end of the month though, which will be the first to reflect feelings toward how Duterte is actually doing.
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Oct 1, 2016 15:34
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Oh for gently caress's sake
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Oct 2, 2016 17:56
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Shooting Blanks posted:3,500 is the most recent number I've heard, but any figure is going to be questionable simply because there's no way to accurately attribute actual, sanctioned extra-judicial killings vs. one rear end in a top hat killing another and putting a sign on his chest saying "Drug Pusher" The PNP came out after that announcement and revised their numbers down by several hundred. But offered absolutely no explanation of why. that should give you a good sense of how reliably anyone is able to track this
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Oct 5, 2016 01:49
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chami posted:Pretty sure Imperial Japan would have invaded anyway given our strategic position back then. He's referring to the Battle of Manila, which was when the US liberated Manila from Japan in 1945. So, did he just... not want Japan kicked out? He also overstates the casualties by nearly double. His approval ratings (I think it was 76%?) are basically on par with every other new president since Marcos. I wouldn't read a whole ton into that number.
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Oct 7, 2016 17:04
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Xelkelvos posted:Is the Philippines in the TPP? Is it too late to cut them out of it? It's not in the TPP and would need to have some pretty significant constitutional overhaul to comply with the requirements on protectionist policies like foreign ownership of companies. Duterte has expressed interest in joining in the past but I wouldnt hold my breath on it.
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Oct 7, 2016 19:01
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Fojar38 posted:Meh, it'll happen with or without the Philippines. Duterte is acting like a psycho but pretty much ever major non-Chinese power in the region is still a close ally of the US.
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Oct 7, 2016 23:29
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Fojar38 posted:I readily believe that Duterte is popular domestic-policy wise (as vile as that policy is) but find it much harder to believe that his foreign policy conduct is at all popular. I thought that Filipinos were generally fond of the US and of the treaty. Certainly moreso than China. You're on the money here. But people dont take to the streets over foreign policy, so his overall support won't suffer as much as it would for unpopular domestic moves.
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Oct 8, 2016 19:02
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GlassEye-Boy posted:Yes, one accident. Since then there has been no major incident. Can't say the same for European or US train operators where accidents seem to happen every month. Can't speak for EU but most of the US ones are decades old and have had insufficient maintenance for a long time. New-built trains from China shouldn't be compared to the old ones...
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Oct 9, 2016 18:19
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Fojar38 posted:I can't imagine the Philippine military or foreign policy establishment are pleased about all this Honestly, at this point I would not be surprised to see members of the government, especially Defense Secretary Lorenzana, resign. I think Yasay is too much of an old buddy of Duterte's (and is also only on board until end of June when Cayetano can take over) to quit but there has got to be some incredible frustration in Manila.
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Oct 21, 2016 04:33
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Some incisive Taiwanese commentary on Duterte https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0_DLnyM3s0
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Oct 22, 2016 15:16
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The Saddest Rhino posted:how on earth is this video not flooded with pro-duterte comments I'd actually love to see anti-duterte folks spreading it on social media and saying it was PRC chinese media laughing behind the Philippines' backs
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Oct 22, 2016 17:10
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Voldemort killed three million muggles... there are three million drug addicts, I'd be happy to slaughter them.
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Nov 1, 2016 22:50
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gradenko_2000 posted:As much as I think it was the right call to halt the sale of M-4's to our police force, it's just going to give Duterte more ammunition (pun intended) to claim that the US is a "fair weather friend" and that American assistance comes with strings attached. This is absolutely true, but the alternative wasn't really a choice either for the US, domestically or internationally-- if they kept quiet the human rights folks would be up in arms over US complicity in extrajudicial killings, and it's not like playing nice would make Duterte any less inclined toward cozying up to China. His embrace of China was assured as soon as he started collecting all of GMA's old cronies. Speaking of which, how much talk has there been in-country of the rumor that Arroyo is elbowing Sen. Cayetano aside as the foreign Secretary who will replace Yasay? Also, satellite imagery is showing China is still keeping fishermen out of Scarborough shoal. The Chinese "relaxed" theur blockade, but only from the restrictions they put in place after the arbitration tribunal; so PH fishermen are still blocked from entering the shoal just as hey have been since the standoff in 2012 but somehow Malacanang is claiming a big victory in negotiations. Beijing is completely having its way with the Philippines and Duterte's team is letting it happen.
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Nov 2, 2016 15:02
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gradenko_2000 posted:
Just to provide a little more context for people (I'm not sure if it was contained in any of your links there, sorry if it was), one of the things Duterte said about his "knowledge" of De Lima and her allegedly sordid past is that a "friendly foreign power" tapped her phone and gave him recordings. Police Chief Dela Rosa said the Philippine National Police didn't have the capability of tapping a mobile phone like that, but Senator Lacson-- a former PNP chief himself-- said that Dela Rosa was probably wrong. In any event-- whether it came from PNP capabilities or from China or "some other" power-- if the writ forced that revelation it would be a big deal (if it came from another country I'm almost positive they would refuse to reveal it for national security reasons, but it would be interesting to see if Duterte was telling the truth about that).
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Nov 8, 2016 06:22
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Gays bribed the State Department into making same-sex marriage legal?
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Nov 24, 2016 04:39
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Throatwarbler posted:It's only been a year and three thousand or so extra juducial killings, give him a chance. *less than 5 months *five thousand plus
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Nov 28, 2016 16:17
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I also liked in that particular speech how he admitted to abusing painkillers against his doctor's orders
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Dec 15, 2016 06:11
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KingEup posted:What are you expecting people to do about their murderous leader? I get what you're saying here, but Filipinos have turned popular revolt into a pastime. A murderous leader didn't stop them in the 80s, though it did take a while.
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Dec 31, 2016 05:23
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