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Manhattan is not likely to get really badly ruined by climate change in the next 10 years -- another Sandy is somewhat likely, but not likely to be regular before 2040 from projections I've seen, and even then it's mostly a problem for Lower Manhattan. The dominant force in Manhattan is going to continue to be ultra-gentrification, as everywhere south of 110th gets priced out of anyone making less than $250k/yr, and they proceed to squeeze Black and Latinx people out of Upper Manhattan, squeezing up from the south and down from Inwood/Washington Heights in the North. Economic base is going to continue to be what it is, with maybe a bit more tech as compared to financial sector. We're probably going to get over the hump of the retail collapse by then, as commercial landlords are going to have to take haircuts on their prime retail rents to service the associated notes and taxes. The old retail is not going to come back, but I think we'll see a resurgence in mid-market street-level retail, as the current vacancy levels are totally unsustainable. Queens is in the catbird seat for the next decade -- if 2000 to now was the era of Brooklyn, driven by unprecedented gentrification of formerly-marginal neighborhoods (Williamsburg, Greenpoint, now Bed-Stuy), I think we're at the start of the era of Queens. We're probably going to lose a lot of diversity, sadly, but I think we'll hang on to more than has remained in Manhattan and Brooklyn, mostly due to some of the ethnic enclaves in Queens being not only entrenched but internally gentrified. I suspect we'll also see a lot of industrial->residential turnover (like my neighborhood, see below) where industrial remains, and a huge upswing in high-end commercial, especially tech-adjacent like specialized manufacturing and back-office financial and corporate. My money for next boom area of Queens is Jackson Heights. Long Island City (my neighborhood of 70,000 people). We're at a crossroads. Either we're going to embrace our economic diversity (Queensbridge Houses barely a mile from new luxury rentals and condos) while alleviating the problems of the depressed subneighborhoods (the food desert around the Queensbridge houses other than Costco), or we're going to squeeze out everything that makes LIC great and wind up with a slightly-larger, less arty Williamsburg. The destruction of 5Pointz does not make me hopeful. The only thing I'm sure about is that (a) the Taxi/Limo industry is going to have to relocate further into Queens or up into the Bronx and (b) all of the vacant industrial is going to get redeveloped, to either high-end residential or commercial. I expect continued expansion of Film/TV. The ferry plan is likely to go through and will probably help, I doubt the weird tram-thing will even get built.
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Sep 7, 2016 22:18
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| # ¿ May 17, 2024 19:00 |
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