USPOL Sep: Hillary has tuberculosis

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL Sep: Hillary has tuberculosis

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

max4me posted:

If the GOP wants to get in the white house they are gonna have to find a different wedge to peel off democratic voters, conversationally the democratic party is gonna have to find a way to keep its support when we dont have the evil orange man yelling about poo poo.

First, the GOP cannot peel off minority Democratic votes because any attempt to do so would require softening the ur-Fascism that binds together their coalition of racist whites. The last guy to attempt this was W, who tried to court the Hispanic vote with immigration reform only to be rebuffed by his hate driven party base. Second, Trump is an anomaly but the GOP were never going to win this election simply due to demographics, which get worse for team red every day. They've painted themselves into the alt right corner and they're sitting there screaming out whitesplanations at the top of their lungs wondering why these stupid blacks just don't get how good the GOP would be for them.

The only way the republicans get the white house again is by completely tearing down the Southern Strategy and starting over, but that's effectively destroying the party anyway. They're hosed.

Also, gently caress the idea that liberals are 'torn' on violence.

# ¿ Sep 1, 2016 12:50

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# ¿ May 22, 2024 16:32

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

Eifert Posting posted:

The biggest surprise for me is how small the sample size is for some of these polls. I thought a small poll was about 10k, not 100.

The statistics scale poorly when it comes to lowering your margin of error: a 1000 person sample might yield a +/- 3% error, while the same poll with a 10k sample gets you +/- 2%. The inherent uncertainties (is this person lying, will this person actually vote, are we polling a perfectly representative cross section of the electorate?) all vastly outweigh the benefit of more data points because they create a ground floor of error that cannot be breached. Better to poll more often with a 500 person sample than use the same resources on a 50k ultra poll.

# ¿ Sep 1, 2016 13:41

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

The Iron Rose posted:

Oh please, just look at USPOL on June 12.

Re-read his original post. His statement was that liberals can't decide who to support when one group they agree with shoots another they agree with, just like conservatives with groups they hate. There's no loving equivalency between a group that generally abhors and decries violence and a group that embraces it (though usually in a tacit, deniable fashion).

# ¿ Sep 1, 2016 15:14

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

Lastgirl posted:

Ivanka even implied that she's only carefully navigating around her father's dynasty so that she can inherit it, they probably have some internal power struggles and loathe each other.

There's pretty much zero chance she doesn't have a finished manuscript of a scathing tell-all sitting in a deposit box somewhere. Once he's dead or has damaged the brand enough to gently caress over her inheritance, she'll make her own way.

# ¿ Sep 8, 2016 14:50

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

canepazzo posted:

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/774213680191897600

This loving election.

Will Conway survive the next inevitable leadership purge? I know she's on message but having a spokesperson say "we're not Russian plants, just utterly incompetent" doesn't bode well. Obviously Bannon will stay on through the creation of the Trump-Breitbart News Network, but I can't see Conway making it past the first debate. Not that she won't give it her all, Trump just doesn't give her much to work with.

"Of course he meant to say 'runt,' Chris."

"All six times?"

# ¿ Sep 9, 2016 13:39

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

Zas posted:

obama does have a day job tho

You mean like signing the many bills Congress passes? I'd argue that so long as he says "Merrick Garland" at least once per campaign stop, he's accomplishing more than he could in DC.

# ¿ Sep 18, 2016 19:36

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

Night10194 posted:

Lol, Rasmussen.

How much did they usually have Romney up?

Generally speaking you can assume a +5 to +8 R tilt on any Rasmussen poll. They're the pollster that will give the Roves and Dean Chambers of the world the thinnest veneer of credibility when they say "Trump EV 294" on Nov 8 while everyone else just giggles.

efb: see lozzle's post above

# ¿ Sep 22, 2016 14:11

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

emdash posted:

Apparently the oculus (vr) cofounder has been bankrolling a pro-Trump 501c4 http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...ia=twitter_page

This is an extreme pro click but I'm phone posting so I can't easily extract quotes

"I've got some extra cash lying around, wanna shitpost?" doesn't have the engaging simplicity of "let them eat cake." Either way, the guillotine is too good for him.

# ¿ Sep 23, 2016 02:56

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

Night10194 posted:

They're completely allergic to just calling it what it is directly, but I'll take this over another 3 weeks of Clinton Foundation Emails.

I'm guessing that "Obviously Minorities Would Be Completely hosed under a Trump Administration" didn't fit the style guide despite clearly being more accurate.

# ¿ Sep 23, 2016 03:33

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

vyelkin posted:

[...]
re: Clinton governance chat from a couple pages ago, the thing I'm really worried about if Clinton doesn't retake the Senate is not just being unable to appoint Supreme Court justices, I'm not even sure the Republicans would let her appoint a cabinet. As someone said, the country has so far been able to overcome the complete dysfunction of its legislative branch by having a functioning executive and judiciary, and I worry that Clinton is so hated by Republicans that they will find some way to brand her an illegitimate president and refuse to even appoint her cabinet picks, which would lead to dysfunction in the executive branch, and definitely won't approve her Supreme Court picks, which over time will lead to dysfunction in the judicial branch as well. Their plan would essentially be to prevent her from governing until 2018, when they could use success in the midterms to declare that now they have a mandate and she doesn't, and therefore wait it out all the way to 2020.
[...]

Don't forget that the non deplorable R voters you mentioned are also deeply invested in their myth structure regarding the two parties. They have to believe that both parties are the same, except the GOP is good for business and cuts taxes. It's how they justify their casual disinterest in the reality of modern politics and write off their low info voting as actual engagement. When the GOP nakedly refused to discuss the nomination of Merrick Garland, they had the thinnest veneer of the election to justify it to the mythology types. When Hillary has been President for six months, has no cabinet and Mitch is still hemming and hawing over maybe, just maybe having hearings, it'll help reinforce the reality that the GOP cares nothing for governing.

In the scenario you describe, the dems will have a very compelling narrative that a vote for a Republican is a vote for no government. Sure, you're right that the deplorable base will see this as a positive, but they were voting R irrespective of any outside factor. It's all the wishy washy "of course I'm not racist" folks you mentioned who need to be shaken from their dream that the modern GOP would've had a loving thing to do with Lincoln or Eisenhower.

My Midwestern co-workers and Texan family all fall under this umbrella: people who pay no attention to politics but would like to feign being informed while safe in the knowledge that DEMS TAXES BAD is all they really need to know. They're actually capable of voting blue, they just need to update a political awareness that is both 30-40 years out of date and a total myth. That's a tall order, but complete government shutdown for no reason but "gently caress you Hillary" won't help them maintain their self imposed ignorance.

# ¿ Sep 23, 2016 14:51

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

iospace posted:

I'm pretty sure Mitch knows this.

Then again, Mitch is a loving moron.

I am giddy at the prospect of watching that human/hagfish hybrid squirm while the party crumbles around him.

# ¿ Sep 23, 2016 15:28

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

BI NOW GAY LATER posted:

She's real.

I can't think it's an accident that the Trump campaign's senior "proud Latina" is the whitest blonde Fox News type imaginable.

# ¿ Sep 23, 2016 16:33

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

twistedmentat posted:

but most people have realized that internet harassment actually has effects; I think a lot of people realized this with Leslie Jones targeting by shitheads.

Not just any shitheads...the literal same shithead. Luckey is getting his fat rear end conned by Milo of all people.

# ¿ Sep 24, 2016 01:15

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

Rebochan posted:

Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly

I really like how his model disregards all that frivolous poo poo like 'actual polling' or 'the very makeup of the electorate.'

# ¿ Sep 24, 2016 02:08

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

DemeaninDemon posted:

He missed a true false question: is one nominee an actual fascist?

Also of note: his nonsense claim that he predicted every election since 1984. For starters, from how far in advance? The day before? Any dumb motherfucker can look at the polls and get it right. Secondly, he's lying because he didn't get 2000 right unless his literally said on Nov. 1 that Gore would win but SCOTUS would hand Bush the WH. Otherwise either other prediction was at least half wrong.

# ¿ Sep 24, 2016 02:21

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

Donkwich posted:

The Republican Party / conservative movement has been a grift machine for decades now, and I don't think they know how to recognize grift when it's right in front of their face. I have absolutely no sympathy for them getting hosed by Trump, they brought this on themselves.

Exactly, the linear regression from Goldwater '64 to today's GOP is straight as an arrow. There was no other path for a party that actively denounced nuance and critical thinking, made sure its followers were self-selected for being incapable of catching on to a con and who reject any non-approved source of information out of hand.

I think it's part of the thinking of a right wing authoritarian that prevents them from giving a gently caress that far in advance. In the same way that modern Republicans pretty much realize climate change is real and terrifying but still don't care because 'that's a problem for ~~my children~~ future generations anyway, besides what about my Exxon stock valuation?' If you could go back to 1964 and sit them down and explain how the party is being set on a course for total destruction, they'd still do the same thing because that's for future Republicans to deal with, besides what about my side business selling seed kits?

# ¿ Sep 24, 2016 15:10

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

vyelkin posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLza30QnBoQ

https://realitieswatch.com/leaked-video-shows-cop-plot-to-kill-unarmed-man-then-murder-him/

St. Louis police officer charged with first-degree murder for killing a black man in 2011. Leaked video appears to show him telling his partner during a police chase that he's going to kill the man, which he then does when the chase ends. Some people think he also planted a gun in the victim's car because they "found" one there but it only had the officer's DNA on it, not the victim's. Also noteworthy is that he was going on patrol with a personally owned AK47-ish assault rifle complete with 100-round drum magazine.

Look, if Smith had just complied a little more during the 20 odd seconds that Stockley's partner had calmly subdued him, he wouldn't have been shot 4 times in cold blood for no discernible reason. And really, aren't drop weapons just the mark of a dutiful officer helpfully trying to make sure we all know just how not an angel Smith was?

WampaLord posted:

Yea he basically said he has business partners and that's it. That's why he's all about his kids, they're basically forced to love him.

If you want to know how Trump views the concept of friendship, ask Roy Cohn

quote:

Trump, though, found out about Cohn�s AIDS, because people knew, and people talked, and he started pulling legal business from Cohn and transferring it to other attorneys�something he did in the USFL matter in March 1985. Cohn couldn�t believe it. After all he had done for Trump? �Donald pisses ice water,� he said, according to Barrett�s book.

ZobarStyl fucked around with this message at 17:11 on Sep 24, 2016

# ¿ Sep 24, 2016 17:04

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

I know it was the tiniest part of the night, but I really loved the self own Trump pulled on his tax returns. He sounded like a child who has broken a lamp and has seamlessly transitioned from blaming his little brother who wasn't home to saying a ghost did it when called out.

"Why won't you release them?"
"I will but audits"
"They say audits don't matter"
"I get audited for fifteen years, that's a lot"
"So that has nothing to do with it but you say you will?"
"I would, but she would first need to undelete her spam folder from 2006. Can't help you otherwise"

ZobarStyl fucked around with this message at 04:10 on Sep 27, 2016

# ¿ Sep 27, 2016 04:08

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

Pakled posted:

I love how all of Hillary's ads are just a collection of awful things Trump has said. It's brilliant.

It really draws an amazing contrast between how they've built to this moment. She's spent three decades getting dragged through the mud and come out all but sparkling. In the same span he's generated hundreds of hours of footage that would've disqualified any other candidate. I'm also guessing that she's barely gotten started with the real nasty poo poo.

# ¿ Sep 28, 2016 03:09

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

Bad Moon posted:

This is not Trumps week

BBC Article Reports Forbes saying Trump has lost around $800 million since 2015 and estimates he's at around 3.7b net worth.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37501557

Between this and that piece on his hotel bookings taking a nosedive, I can't wait to bathe in the schadenfruede of him going under in the next decade. His brand is now completely toxic and the deplorables don't buy Trump ties or stay in SoHo. There's also no more investors to fleece so he can Ponzi off his Russian debt.

Trump is a waste.

# ¿ Sep 29, 2016 05:17

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

A Fancy 400 lbs posted:

There's a local hardware store in my town that has a bunch of Trump/Pence/MAGA clothes and hats right next to a table full of bootleg sunglasses and watches that they call "name brand" complete with scare quotes on the sign. It's been the best analogy I've seen for the Trump campaign so far.

Beautiful. Do be sure to drop in and check that stand in November for the sales. What greater metaphor could there be for downfall of Trump than to see layers upon layers of increasingly lower priced clearance stickers screaming out in futility? I want to see MAGA hats right next to the camouflage iPhone 3 cases in the back of Cabela's - unwanted, forgotten trash incapable of being sold at any discount.

# ¿ Sep 29, 2016 05:43

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# ¿ May 22, 2024 16:32

ZobarStyl: Oct 24, 2005; This isn't a war, it's a moider.

There's no chance Trump performs any better in the second debate. You don't spend seven decades being an incorrigible know nothing and then get to 80's montage your way into going toe to toe with the best in two short weeks.

# ¿ Sep 29, 2016 13:32

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL Sep: Hillary has tuberculosis