Without Love, It Cannot Be Seen - Let's Play Umineko

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Video Games > Let's Play! > Without Love, It Cannot Be Seen - Let's Play Umineko

NGDBSS: Dec 30, 2009

I wonder how this typo slipped through? (They're referring to Tokyo Disneyland which was established in 1983, and which is apparently stupidly successful.)

# ¿ Sep 21, 2016 20:49

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# ¿ May 4, 2024 17:19

NGDBSS: Dec 30, 2009

Have we actually concluded that there only exists one murderer? That's the situation in a lot of mystery fiction, but (given Clue, for instance) isn't true for everything.

# ¿ Oct 13, 2016 18:25

NGDBSS: Dec 30, 2009

oath2order posted:

Are you positing that all of this witch nonsense is some form of hyper-advantaced aliens?

Rules will always exist. They may be obscured from view (which is exactly what Beato has been doing to Battler), or some variant on "consult these probability distributions" (ie, determinism is not guaranteed), but from an sufficiently broad and objective perspective they can still be found.

Edit: Because that is perhaps a bit pretentious and :goonsay:

, I'll just chime in to say that I've been enjoying things thus far. I'll probably just keep to lurking much of the time, since the unraveling of the mystery is still enjoyable even without my direct participation in it.

NGDBSS fucked around with this message at 07:41 on Nov 27, 2016

# ¿ Nov 27, 2016 07:39

NGDBSS: Dec 30, 2009

ProfessorProf posted:

To talk a bit about this, here's my understanding/interpretation:

Lambdadelta's power doesn't make things happen with probability 1, she makes things happen with probability 0.99999999999 or 0.0000000000001 - so close to 1 or 0 that it might as well be guaranteed.

This is why Bernkastel's power beats Lambdadelta's power - she can reroll things over and over until she gets the one-in-a-million outcome she's after.

A quibble on this - an event that occurs with probability 1 doesn't necessarily have to occur. The set of possible exceptions can be non-empty, but the probability of them occurring must be smaller than any fixed positive probability*. (There's a concept on this in probability theory on this called "almost surely/almost certainly".) For instance, if you were to flip a fair coin until it came up heads, you would almost certainly stop flipping at some point. In theory you could keep getting tails in an infinite sequence, but the probability of such happening is trivially 0 (well, the limit of 1/2ⁿ as n goes to infinity).

So in fact it would be perfectly fine for Lambdadelta to make things happen with probability 1 and still be beaten by Bernkastel, if such a non-empty/probability-0 set of exceptions exists.

*In number systems other than the reals, "infinitesimals" can satisfy this requirement without being equal to zero. (That's how they're defined.) But nearly everything you see with mathematics either uses the real numbers or a subset thereof, including probability theory, so the above is still sound.

# ¿ Jan 11, 2017 20:13

NGDBSS: Dec 30, 2009

Lycaeon posted:

Cause of death: Winchester rifles (May or may not have been wielded by rabbit girls, reminder to look into that later), most likely wielded by the servant conspirators. Genji may have been used as a sacrificial pawn to draw suspicion off the servants.

I can believe it, since historically rifles like the Winchester could actually blow someone's face off, or otherwise cause their head to pop like a grape. :commissar:

There's a scene from The Proposition [2005] where exactly that happens, and when I first saw it in a theater the audience audibly gasped.

# ¿ Feb 16, 2017 00:02

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