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vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

Assuming those last few screens are everyone's locations at midnight, I have one question. Why is Nanjo alone against a black background? Even Shannon (who it looks like is about to get loving murdered) gets a properly drawn background, so why not him?

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vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

Not gonna lie, seeing Kinzo act like a decent human being and be nice to Natsuhi warms my heart.

I mean, he's still a dick, hiding up in the study and whatnot, but slightly less of one.

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

Assuming the key to the shutter is always in the servants' room, this makes the servants look pretty drat shady.

Also noteworthy is the smashing in of the faces. I was gonna propose that the culprit did this to disguise someone's corpse as someone else's, but I think everyone is accounted for right now, right?

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

Yeah, right now the most obvious set of culprits are Eva and some of the servants. The magic circle is just a device to convince the survivors that magic was used, and throw suspicion off a human culprit. So far, no contradictions, right?

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

Quick few thoughts off these last updates. The servants are trying way too hard to push the illusion of an actual witch on Battler. Kanon, Genji and Kumasawa are all really shady right now, which fits with what we know about the storehouse murders. Maria, on the other hand, just seems to be a creepy kid who likes the occult right now. Shame on the servants for indulging this kind of behaviour.

As for Kinzo's study, it looks like Eva's going to pin the disappearance on Natsuhi. I mean, it doesn't seem beyond reason that maybe someone else opened the door, noticed the receipt, and put it back, but that seems like a stretch. The next logical step is that there's another way out, but Genji denies it. If he's in on the murders though, maybe he's lying and another way in exists? Right now, that's all I've got. We know Natsuhi isn't lying, and she actually met Kinzo this morning, so he has to have left by means other than the door.

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

No hidden passage, huh? Then what about a passage that isn't hidden? Has the window been denied?

That aside, the only other option is that he's still in there, or he was never in there. I was going to suggest for a moment that maybe Natsuhi only had a phone conversation with Kinzo, who's in fact in another room entirely, but seeing as she hasn't used that defence herself, I guess that's impossible.

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

I don't know, I was thinking something along the lines of Natsuhi entering the study, then from there calling Kinzo to talk to him. I was toying with the idea that maybe he's in such poor health that he's in a hospital off the island, but doesn't want anyone to know, however we've seen Krauss arguing with him through a door, and I think some of the servants have spoken to him face to face.

The only thing that stands out, on a repeat reading, is that Kinzo is uncharacteristically nice to Natsuhi compared to the vitriol everyone else seems to attribute to him. Maybe they're in on something together as well? How many suspicious groups are there on this island, Jesus.

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

Looks like we were right, either he hid in the room or left via the window.

I imagine we're going to see more characters in future eps, but as for whether there's a 19th person right now, I'm not so sure. So far, there's no need for one, right? You can explain the events up until now with 18 people, and there hasn't been any hint of a 19th person outside of the 'witch', which can be explained away by the servants being irresponsible and indulging Maria. If we do get evidence of a 19th person though, it would make all of this a lot easier to solve.

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

The chain lock makes this difficult, but what really kills it is how quickly everyone arrives at the scene this time. If we assume Kumasawa is an accomplice, it's possible to have the culprit hide in the room, then sneak out as Kanon checks the bathroom while he's not looking. Issue there is, they run straight into Natsuhi in the hallway.

As if getting the culprit out isn't enough, we also have to figure out who painted the door in the 5 minute window while Kanon and Genji were gone. As they go to fetch Kumasawa and Nanjo respectively, and Genji also grabs Natsuhi straight afterwards, this gives all the servants alibis for that time frame. It's also proof that none of the servants were inside the room waiting, which shatters any theory with the servants at the heart of it.

Hell, keep reading, and everyone arrives in groups. No-one we know of could have hidden in the room. No-one left through the window. You can't get through the door while it's chain locked. I'm going to assume that the door can't be chain-locked from the outside, and the final nail in the coffin is that Kanon checks the chain lock not only when he first arrives at the room, but also just before he cuts it with the bolt clippers.

I've got nothing this time.

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

little_firebird posted:

Kinzo and the witch are in cahoots; I'd stake my life on it!

... I'm an idiot.

Kinzo's the culprit for this one. He's the only person who wasn't part of a group beforehand. I imagine Eva would be more than happy to let him in to talk inheritance, then she and Hideyoshi gets killed. He's still hiding in the room, which explains the chain lock.

Still not too sure on the blood on the door, but I'm sure I'll work something out.

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

Sod it, I've been holding off for a while in the vain hope that I could come up with something better, but seeing as it looks like chapter 1 is drawing to a close, what with everyone dead, I'll toss out a new, revised theory.

The culprit is the 19th human, Beatrice, and Kumasawa is her accomplice. The six corpses in the shed are easily explained by Kumasawa providing Beatrice with the shed key, and aiding in moving the bodies. For Eva and Hideyoshi, they forgot to set the chain lock, and the culprit used Kumasawa's master key to enter. After killing them, she kept Kumasawa's master key, and hid in the room. After everyone finishes investigating, the culprit escapes Eva's room, jumps out a window, and enters the boiler room through the back door, knowing that the relatives will soon notice the smell of Kinzo's corpse.

On that note, let's backtrack to Kinzo, shall we? Whilst we know he's reluctant to open his door to family, if Beatrice herself knocked, he'd be likely to open it, right? The solution is easy if we assume this. Beatrice enters Kinzo's room just after Natsuhi, and notices Eva's receipt as it falls from the door when it opens. She then places it back after killing Kinzo, and takes his body to the boiler room.

Back to Kanon, there's no issues here if we accept the 19th person. Once everyone holes up in the study, Kumasawa places the letter in order to split the group up. Once the servants hole themselves up in the parlour, Beatrice enters using Kumasawa's master key, and the two of them kill Genji and Nanjo. Beatrice then turns on Kumasawa, and finishes her off. She leaves a letter summoning Natsuhi to duel her in front of the portrait, then shoots her before she has a chance to react. Afterwards, the cousins arrive, and being unarmed, they die off-screen.

Purgatorio is just that. Everyone is dead, and Battler's spirit is struggling to accept what happened to everyone.

If anyone can find a hole in this, feel free to point it out. I'm kinda mad that I can't explain it with only 18 people, but I find it just as hard to accept that one of the corpses was fake. I wanna say that a 19th person on the island is slightly more likely than someone having a convenient spare corpse lying around to fake their death with, but that's just me.

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

I actually have an idea for Natsuhi's door. If Beatrice's goal is to make people believe that the culprit is a witch, and she has access to Kumasawa's master key, then it makes sense. I imagine she was originally going to kill Natsuhi as one of the first six, opened the door to her room, then saw the charm and thought "Oh wait, this is totally a great chance to freak someone out."

As for the circle on Eva's door... I've still got nothing. Everyone is accounted for at that time, so short of Genji and Kanon just being loving blind and not noticing it the first time, I seriously can't work it out. Maybe the culprit has access to some sort of paint that is only visible after it dries, found in Kinzo's study?

Either Kumasawa or Genji work as the accomplice in this theory. I prefer Kumasawa because she can help corner Kanon in the boiler room, but Genji is better suited to carting the bodies around, I'll admit.

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

Resurgam's post got me thinking on a few things, specifically Eva's actions in the last game. Reading over how she behaved after the corpses in the shed were found is kind of interesting. She and Hideyoshi do a good job of controlling the scene, and given that at this point she's now the heir apparent to the headship...

I don't know, it makes me wonder if the first set of murders went off with her prior knowledge. Her family is the only one that's safe, and she and Hideyoshi willingly leave the parlour later on. If my theory is correct, and she didn't set the chain lock for her room, then why? Was she expecting the culprit, so that they could plan out the next murder together? Maybe this is why the blood circle isn't there initially. If Eva was in on the plan to begin with, but got in an argument with the culprit, then they wouldn't have had time to set the scene properly before Kanon and Genji arrived.

On another note, I'm really hoping that we get to see a bit more of Battler's parents this time around. Kyrie strikes me as the kind of character that could really throw a wrench in the culprit's plans if left around too long, and if she has a plan, Rudolf will doubtless get swept up in it too.

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

Taking this at face value, we have evidence to suggest a human Beatrice existed on the island prior to the murders, who was colluding with some of the servants.

More interesting is the shrine, and Beatrice referring to the servants as furniture. Furniture seems to mean a person who can't love, but Beatrice can promote them to human somehow? I'm curious as to why the culprit is loving with Shannon , and why she needs the shrine not only broken, but by someone else. They're making a point of hammering on about this hard, so I hope it turns out to be relevant.

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

Man, I'm trying not to acknowledge all the magic tomfoolery going on here, but it's getting to the stage that I can't ignore it anymore. A human doesn't become invisible to people who don't know love. Even her own twisted logic doesn't add up; if Beatrice is invisible to those without love, why can Kannon see her when he admits to being furniture and without it? Why am I even buying into this logic about a being that can't be seen unless you have the loving power of friendship.

Okay, rant aside, time for analysis. Assuming this is being shown to us for a reason other than driving me up the wall, what are we supposed to learn here? Beatrice is stuck on the island because of Kinzo for some reason, and is trying to regain her power so she can leave. Does this mean that Beatrice has to kill everyone before she can leave for some reason?

The first idea that comes to mind is that Beatrice is literally a prisoner on the island, who the servants secretly tend to. Maybe she befriends Shannon in order for her to set Beatrice free, which leads to the murders? I would say that maybe everyone needs to die so that she can bury her past or something, but this scene suggests that Kinzo doesn't know she's even there. How can you have a prisoner you don't even know about?

Final note, thank you Kannon for not indulging Beatrice's bullshit. Shannon is to Beatrice what the rest of the servants were to Maria last episode.

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

This update made me do a complete 180 on Kanon. I thought he was kind of okay, but the coat has ruined everything.

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

So, this pretty much confirms that this chapter is a different version of the island than last time. You can account for the different dialogue through different viewpoints, but the scene with the candy is new, and so is Beatrice appearing in front of Rosa this time.

On the topic of Beatrice, what's with this new wardrobe? The waistcoat-blazer-skirt combo is a bit reminiscent of Jessica's outfit. Did she muddy her dress or something?

Rewinding back to the reveal that Natsuhi and the servants are in on a conspiracy to keep the rest of the family away from Kinzo... I have to wonder if this was the case in the last game as well. Either way, we have a contradiction. If the conspiracy didn't exist last game, then what caused it this time around? So far, we haven't seen anything different in Kinzo's behaviour this time that merits keeping him hidden here, but not in the last game. If the conspiracy existed last game, then why did Krauss and Natsuhi both try to convince Kinzo to leave the study?

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

Just what I was hoping for. That segment at the end seems to suggest that Beatrice is showing Battler her 'moves' on the gameboard. In other words, she's providing an explanation for events that he's not present for. This means that we can cast doubt on what we've seen this far. As Battler said, there's no need for witches here. The 19th person had a candy in their pocket that they swapped the broken one for.

This all seems to confirm my theory from the last game, that Beatrice was a 19th human hiding on the island. Now that multiple people are aware of her presence this time round, it'll be interesting so see if that changes how things pan out.

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

I've had an odd realisation reading over the past few updates in quick succession. Ever since Kanon went into the VIP room, he's been more than a bit flighty. We've got descriptions of him popping out of nowhere and disappearing just as quick (see the scene where Shannon prepares to go to the VIP room), and then there's the artwork for everyone entering the chapel. I'm not sure if it's an oversight, but despite him having lines just prior to the door being opened, he's not depicted there.

As for the lock, if you go over the scene where Rosa retrieves the envelope, there's no mention of the wax seal still being present. The culprit may well have just mirrored Rosa's move, and snuck in while the cousins were sleeping, used the key to arrange the meeting, then locked the door and placed it back in the bag.

On the topic of Rosa, why is she surprised by any of this? She was there with the rest of the siblings when Beatrice proved herself to be a witch (presumably by revealing the 3 bars of gold). This not only sets her up as an accomplice, but reveals that Beatrice has already found Kinzo's gold. This throws up yet another question, however. If she knows where the gold is herself, why is she so eager for the rest of the family to solve the epitaph? Does it lead to something other than the gold?

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

That still doesn't answer why. If Beatrice didn't know where the gold was, it makes sense; the family find the gold for her, then she kills everyone and is mad rich. If she already knows where to find the gold, then that means... what? What does she gain from having someone solve it? Why does that stop her from killing everyone? If she's human, it should have no effect, unless the epitaph leads to something other than the gold.

If she's a witch, then an argument can be made that SHE'S NOT A WITCH SHE'S NOT A WITCH SHE'S NOT A WITCH

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

On the one hand, nothing magical going on here. Beatrice probably has the VIP room key, so there's no contradiction with her locking the door, then hiding in an adjacent room until Gohda leaves. I wonder what she would have done had he hung about, though.

On the other hand what the gently caress is wrong with her face?

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

SystemLogoff posted:

Obviously since there was no witnesses, purgatory witch is making up crap to mess with Battler.

This. As batshit as what went down is, it doesn't prove anything, as we've got no witnesses. Now, if Beatrice does that later in front of Battler I'll change my tune. Until then, I'm just gonna tune out all the crazy magic poo poo that's going on.

Well, most of it. One line in particular stood out to me this time. The witch's furniture said she was going to kill Kanon "again". I guess this means that the furniture is the personification of the stake that killed him in the first game? If that's the case, it raises a curious point, that some characters on the gameboard can remember other ones. I wonder if this is going to be addressed in a purgatory scene later. Something else of interest, although not a line, is that Beatrice had a wardrobe change again. When she confronts Kanon in the hallway, she's business casual, and in Jessica's room, she's hyper-formal. Makes me wonder if Beatrice might actually be two people working together this time round.

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

The red is going to be the crux of all the mysteries from here on out, isn't it? It's nice to have something absolute to rely on, but it kind of kills the fun of looking for clues in the narrative if we're just going to be spoon-fed the truths we need.

Anyway, presenting the red here is an interesting choice. By giving us this to rely on, Beatrice almost seems to be implying that we can't trust what we see on the gameboard. What does this mean for the first game, then, where the red wasn't present? Were some of the scenes from that game just as unreliable as the magic battle we saw in Jessica's room?

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

So, I sat on my question from my last post for a while, and I've looked back over some of the mysteries from the first game. Namely, Eva's door and Kanon's death, as they're the biggest impossibilities in the narration.

I know that the door is possible using a stencil and a can of spray paint, but I feel that's a bit of a cop-out. Likewise, we can theorise about the chemicals in Kinzo's study, but until we find something that I can interpret as a hint at either of these, neither of them feel right to me. So, where does that leave us? There's no other hints as to how the seal came to be on the door. I'll come back to this in a moment.

Kanon's death is the other big stinker. This scene is where we're supposed to infer that he's ambushed by Beatrice, who's lain in wait in the boiler room after pushing Kinzo into the boiler. We don't see what exactly happens, until Kumasawa arrives and bears witness to the aftermath of the attack. Moving on briefly to Kanon's death here in the second game, we know that, at least under certain circumstances, scenes involving him are narrated unreliably; there's no way a human can conjure a lightsaber, furniture or not, and there's no way that a corpse can vanish into thin air. So, I propose that Kanon's death in the boiler room is the same, an unreliable scene. I'll use the flash we get of the portrait down there as evidence pointing towards it, and the golden butterflies that appear beforehand.

So, what can we draw from this? In both his death scenes, the truth behind Kanon's death is obfuscated. Furthermore, Kanon is the witness to an impossible act, that of the paint appearing on the door in the first game, and his myriad interactions with Beatrice prior to October 4th. Finally, in 'magic' scenes, Kanon himself can wield magic on the same level as the witch's furniture. Where this puts Shannon I'm not too sure, as she too has interacted with the 'witch' Beatrice, but I digress.

I theorise that Kanon is working with the witch. Based on the 'magic' scenes between him and the witch, we know he has a strong desire to protect Shannon and Jessica. If the culprit holds their lives over his head, I think he could be swayed to aiding the culprit.

Based off this, I propose the following solution for the two mysteries: The scene where Kanon and Genji investigate the door to Eva's room is another unreliable scene. Kanon lied about the door, and convinced Genji to play along in order to protect Jessica. The culprit said something to the following effect to him: "Go to Eva's room with Genji, then break open the door. Convince everyone that the seal was not there when you first arrived. After this is done, meet me in the boiler room. If you do this, Jessica will not befall the same fate as Shannon." Once Kanon did all this, he met with the culprit, and was killed. Beatrice lies during both these scenes to prevent Battler from having an easy target to pin the blame on; he seems unwilling to doubt any of the other 18 this far, and whilst she seems keen to encourage him to blame one of them, handing him the identity of the accomplice is too easy. Another possible reason is to protect the illusion of magic. A witch doesn't need accomplices, after all.

With this, the first game can easily be solved. Kanon provides the culprit with the shed key, and assists with the movement of the bodies to the shed. Kanon provides the culprit with his master key to commit Eva and Hideyoshi's murders. The culprit hides in the room, having left the key somewhere for Kanon. They then wait until the door is locked and everyone leaves, then jump out the window and run to the external boiler room door. Kanon and Kumasawa hear the door being shut, and Kanon takes his cue to hastily meet up with the culprit. After killing him, the culprit takes his master key again, waits for Maria to place the letter in the study, and shadows Maria's group to the parlour. The culprit uses Kanon's key to open the door, and kills the servants.

Second game so far is the inverse. The culprit can carry out the first twilight alone as we've already theorised, then informs Kanon that unless he allows Jessica to die, Shannon will be killed too. I'm going to put money on Shannon surviving this game now that Jessica is dead.

Of course, if Beatrice is kind enough to go back to the first game at some point and provide us with red, all this is just pointless guesswork. Until then, however, I believe this covers everything in the first game, and provides us with a hint for the second. Whatever's coming up, it's safe to say Kanon probably had an unwilling hand in preparing it.

vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

I'm pretty confused, I won't lie. The red states he's dead, but there he is, living and breathing, more or less. Wordplay seems to be the key here, as people have mentioned before, and the locking of Kanon's key in the room necessitates either a servant as a culprit, or one of them having given their key to the culprit. Maybe a trick along the lines of swapping out a servant's master key for a fake while they slept would work without making them an accomplice? Gohda stated that everyone has their keys, but unless everyone demonstrates that they function as master keys, this can be doubted.

I'm being picky about this, and I'm not sure if I'm seeing stuff that isn't there, but Jessica's room doesn't make sense given the red we have. The only blood anyone notices is the pool under Jessica. Yet, when Kanon appears in the kitchen, he's drenched in blood. Regardless of how he got out of Jessica's room, there should have been at least some blood. In the first game, Kumasawa picked up on the small traces in the dining hall, and Rosa searches the room this time, right? She also comes to the conclusion that Kanon is probably the culprit, meaning that nothing in the room points to his death. Did the culprit really clean up only Kanon's blood before leaving?

That doesn't make sense. If the goal was to frame Kanon, why leave the magic circles that point to this being a crime committed by the witch? The second twilight necessitates two sacrifices, but Beatrice has only taken one. On the level of the gameboard, why only wound him when there's a doctor on the island? We know he's going to die because of the red, but why run that risk?

This move makes no sense. Beatrice is taking waaaay more risks than is at all necessary compared to the first game, and is contradicting her own message to the survivors by letting Kanon escape. I just don't get it.

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vector_to
Mar 7, 2013

Okay, I don't like this. Kanon burst into butterflies, meaning I'm pretty sure that he's done a vanishing act again. So, was he dying, got carried into the servant's room, then the culprit finished him off, killed Nanjo and Kumasawa, then legged it with Kanon's body?

What the gently caress, Beatrice.

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