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resurgam40 posted:Wh... WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT!? Episode 1 was Maria writing what really happened. Episode 2 is Maria thinking "no, that's boring, it had way too few witches! I'm going to fix it, ihihihihihi! And Beatrice will have 7 friends and they'll be girls and magic stakes! And a pet goat with a psiblade!"
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Nov 5, 2016 21:28
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Toalpaz posted:I am tempted to say where Beatrice is trying to mislead the reader with this reassurance that this locked room definitely only unlockable with magic as the key was accounted for in Maria's envelope. And while the envelope swapping is definitely still a thing that could happen, I believe the misdirection is assuming that the door was locked at the time. I'm sorry I'm so suspicious of Genji again. But he promises he tried the door and that it was locked, but it could be simply unlocked the whole evening couldn't it? Beatrice doesn't assure the reader that the locked room was only unlockable with magic. Actually, she's quite explicit that the locked room is impossible to unlock with magic: "It is impossible to unlock the lock to the chapel without the chapel's key!!" and "When the door to the chapel is locked, it prevents any and all methods of entry or exit!!". Not "impossible to unlock without either the chapel's key or magic". Of course she then says it could be opened with magic... but she doesn't say that in red. It's misdirection. Same with the methods of entry or exit - "prevents any and all methods of entry or exit" includes magic. As for the misdirection about the door being locked at the time: that's a good point. Even without the easy answer that someone either took the key from Maria and then put it back or swapped envelopes, they could have unlocked the chapel before giving the key to Maria - we have in red text that the chapel can't be unlocked without the key, but perhaps it could be locked without the key. The red text definitely adds some interesting stuff to this. On the other hand, accepting the red text is kind of tautological - you can only believe the red text is actually true if you believe that the red text is true. But if we don't accept that then the mystery kind of breaks so we'll just do it.
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Nov 7, 2016 10:25
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KataraniSword posted:Because everybody who saw (except Beato, who has her own reasons for making poo poo up) it is, effectively, dead. It's a flourish, an overdramatization that can neither be proven nor disproven - like one of the cheap parlor tricks mentioned earlier in the thread. I don't like that as an answer for what happened. If we're just going to say "this scene didn't really happen because no one there survived", it causes a lot of problems. Unreliable narrator is bad for mystery. People lying is totally fine, but if the things we see aren't really happening (in story) then the whole thing becomes kind of pointless.
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Nov 7, 2016 20:59
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MonsterEnvy posted:Well we know the Red is true. And I think we can trust most things that don't involve blatant magic stuff. If we say "we can trust everything we see except for things that don't match our preconceived notions", then we're being as aggressively ignorant as Battler. Basically, if we're going to come up with an explanation for what's going on then it has to cover goat lightsabers. Now it could cover that by saying "that didnt really happen", but you need a better criteria for determine what did and did not happen than "the things I don't think happened didn't happen", which is not useful. Also, at least Beatrice seems to think that one of the rules of magic is that aggressive ignorance has an effect on it, given her interactions with Battler. Which is not unusual for magic but is really annoying. Qrr fucked around with this message at 22:21 on Nov 7, 2016 |
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Nov 7, 2016 22:16
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We should also remember that Kinzo is really not a reliable witness on anything concerning Beatrice, so Genji and Shannon don't have perfect alibis. Though they do alibi each other so unless we're suspecting the full set of servants as collaborators it's hard to point fingers. And Kanons key being used is a very simple answer. It may not have been used by Kanon, though.
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Nov 8, 2016 22:05
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So Jessica had the master key on her. Did Jessica have Jessica's key? If not, where is it? They should also check and make sure all of the servants have their keys.
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Nov 9, 2016 20:58
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Just because Battler refuses to suspect a servant doesn't need mean we need to be that dumb. Maybe one of them is a collaborator. Maybe one of them didn't have their key for a bit. It's by far the simplest answer.
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Nov 11, 2016 00:38
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So... hasn't she contradicted herself in red now? "Any kind of locked room can be created or destroyed" vs "The door and the window do not permit any kind of entry or exit when they are locked." Still doesn't have an exception for magic. As for the locked room... hmm. I still think they should check all of the master keys to make sure they're present and are the real master keys - we've heard in red that there are no copies but there could be fakes that don't work. Also I'm kind of astounded that Kinzo doesn't have a master key himself. That's weird. I wonder if he's died yet.
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Nov 13, 2016 21:30
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Fabulousvillain posted:So #th Twilight means any loving time in any order, gently caress riddles. Gonna be funny when Battler solves this stupid mess with gingerbread men or something though. It wouldn't be that surprising if the epitaph riddle had absolutely nothing to do with the murders and Beatrice is just focusing on misdirection. I mean, the murders aren't really a riddle. Or rather, how they were done is kind of a riddle, but not one that really relates to the epitaph.
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Nov 22, 2016 23:05
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The switch to first person was unexpected. I wonder what it means. Also, wow, poo poo sure did go down. I'm confused by the profiles saying that the Idiot messed everything up again, because Battler certainly seemed to surrender there. On the other hand Beatrice is a huge jerk so who even knows. I also wonder what the next chapter is going to feature. I kind of thought meta-Battler vs Beato was going to be a thing for a while, but no, meta-Battler has already lost.
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Nov 23, 2016 22:55
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And hey, Rusolf has spent the whole game seeming like a decent guy, and this is Umineko so we can't have that. So he looked at how his older siblings had treated him and decided to pay it forward. Lovely. I wonder how Kyrie will be a terrible person. Maybe she's the one behind all the murders. Or she's actually Hitler in drag.
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Nov 25, 2016 01:35
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resurgam40 posted:*ahem* Well, no. But I've been wanting to something like that for a while, so I replied to your post (Seriously, the subtitle for that one is The Witch's Curse... how could I not?) You have truly created a thing of beauty.
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Nov 26, 2016 11:43
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Sindai posted:If it turns out Kinzo has a traumatic backstory it's going to have to be pretty darn convincing. I think we've already heard some of it. He was a no one who never really expected to have anything significant, and then suddenly his whole extended family died and he inherited all their stuff. Then things went terribly until a witch gave him a bajillion dollars and also presumably sex.
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Nov 30, 2016 00:01
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I like how Beatrice points at Ronove and says "see? This guy is a devil so he's proof that devils exist". While pointing at this total human looking dude. I'm sure that will be much more convincing than goats with lightsabers and golden butterflies and resurrection, Beato. Also, Beatrice is doing this thing over and over again, giving Battler a chance to beat her and the other people a chance to solve the riddle. I wonder - is she doing this because Battler doesn't believe, or is it because of the first lesson we ever learned about "magic" - to accomplish great things you have to take great risks. Every time she could lose but doesn't, she seems to gain power.
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Dec 2, 2016 00:48
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POOL IS CLOSED posted:Plus Kinzo has had the current main branch of the family isolated on this dumpy island for the past 30 years. That's a long time to beat this nasty poo poo into his staff, his immediate family, and at least one grandkid. I did appreciate when Hideyoshi brought up that being trapped on Rokkenjima for 30 years sure would have sucked for hypothetical Beatrice as mistress. Because seriously, at that point she wouldn't be Kinzo's mistress, she'd be his prisoner. And no matter how much he thought he loved her, well, we've seen how he treats everyone else in his life, and what he thinks of women, so he'd treat his mistress like crap even while he talked about how much he loved her. Also, wow Krauss really is just the worst person with money. The others have money issues for various reasons, but Krauss has just refused to acknowledge that he has money issues. "I made a great decision but it was just too far ahead of the curve". He's not willing to admit he was wrong, so he goes all in on sunk costs and throws good money after bad. I wonder how long it would take him to run out of the hypothetical 20 billion yen, because I bet he would. Oh, and once again Kyrie is being the smart one. She may not be reaching the right conclusions, but that's because of information she doesn't have.
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Dec 3, 2016 21:16
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Robindaybird posted:I try, but I cannot follow the Raven's Paradox at all. It's a very complicated way of describing the contrapositive. Let's start with the statement "all squares are rectangles". This statement is true. So we can say "if something is a square, it is a rectangle". The contrapositive of that is "if something is not a rectangle, it is not a square". Because if it were a square, then it would be a rectangle because of the first statement. So the contrapositive is also true. Beatrice is really bad at using the contrapositive, so she says things like "if something is not a square, it is not a rectangle". That statement is obviously not true. Similarly, "if something is a rectangle, it is a square" is another false statement that Beatrice might try to use. For the contrapositive, you need to "not" both sides and also flip their direction. If A implies B, then not B implies not A.
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Dec 4, 2016 21:48
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tiistai posted:You'll notice that the way Umineko uses terms like Devil's proof and Hempel's raven maaaay not correspond exactly with their real definitions. The best you can do is not worry about it too much. I also don't think that they're nearly as useful for proofs as Beatrice thinks. Because you are, after all, still proving the same thing. One of her examples is "humans that are not me are not wise". That's clearly hard to prove because you'd need to look at all humans (or have induction or some other generalization technique). But the contrapositive is "humans that are wise are me". And at first glance that might seem easier to prove, but how are you getting the full list of humans that are wise? How are you proving that it's the full list? You're back to the same stuff you had to prove in the first place. Contrapositives are more useful when applied to a statement that you already know is true and then using it to prove other things. It's not a useless technique but it's not a magical solution to all your problems like Beatrice thinks. But I guess if you're a witch you're obligated to pretend that everything you do is magical. If you get your coffee from a coffee machine, you're not a witch - that's what "demonic" smirking snarking butlers are for.
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Dec 4, 2016 22:12
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I'm just happy that Rudolf wanted to pet the wolves. He really is the best of Kinzos kids (though he was a jerk to rosa too).
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Dec 7, 2016 19:44
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So this time around when it went over the people it skipped Maria, Kumasawa, and Nanjo. The first time it skipped Maria and Natsuhi and the second it skipped Shannon, Kumasawa, and Nanjo. I don't really see a pattern in this - I wonder if it means anything. Oh, and Beatrice saying there are only 18 humans on Rokkenjima, with the clarification that it applies to all Rokkenjimas, is inconvenient for the second one where Beatrice shows up and a lot of people meet her. On the other hand the second one is a pain from a lot of perspectives. Also, does she not think witches are human? She certainly seems to have started as human from the bit of her past that we maybe saw. I tend to think of witch as a profession rather than a species. Alternatively she could think she isn't on Rokkenjima.
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Dec 9, 2016 20:01
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halfhazardKnight posted:Walking in the footsteps of a man declared objectively incompetent is not a very competent decision. I don't think Beatrice has said anything about the golden land in red, and given her behavior I really wouldn't trust that her end goal is everyone being happy and alive. Frankly given Beatrice I'm pretty happy with Battler continuing to disbelieve just to spite her. Though she also seems to enjoy having someone to convince so who even knows.
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Dec 15, 2016 00:18
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This view of science is, uh, an interesting one. Basically Battler is totally dismissing his past observations as a source of evidence and relying entirely on his current observations. Hes decide to give up on Object Permanence. Also, alternate argument against Braun tube gremlins: someone else would have seen them and reported it. If it's as easy to verify as opening a tube, then it would be well known. The alternative is to posit an enormous conspiracy (good luck with that) or gremlins that are invisible and pretend to work via electrons and luminescence.
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Dec 15, 2016 20:06
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I think the idea that one of them killed the rest and then committed suicide has a lot of merit. For the cause of death if Nanjo can't tell the difference between a bullet wound and a stake wound then frankly I don't trust him knowing cause of death at all, so it could have been a non lethal stab and then poison for the suicide. Also, it doesn't seem like they said that the chapel or the furnace fit Beatrice's closed room conditions. They said it explicitly for the other 4 rooms. Though they haven't said any of that in red anyway. Oh, and idonotlikepeas has a really good post about iteration 2. Rosa as murderer with servant accomplice does resolve things pretty well.
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Dec 16, 2016 22:35
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whitehelm posted:These particular rooms can't be locked from the inside, because this time we've got the red statement, No device exists which can lock them without a key, such as an auto-lock. Since the auto-lock is given as an example, I'm pretty sure privacy locks would count as a "device". But Genji, for example, could have used his master key to lock it from the inside. That just prevents Kinzo from being the suicider, it doesn't otherwise damage the theory. Of course Battler will never guess this because it must have been a 19th person or something. He's really constraining himself quite badly.
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Dec 16, 2016 23:21
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ProfessorProf posted:The profile page has been updated. Also, since you're having so much fun with this one, here's a tidbit to tide you over until I finish preparing more updates: That's inconvenient, but doesn't make things impossible. It does make it require someone else. If there were an additional party, they could have stabbed (nonlerhally) and poisoned a servant, then chased them in such a way that the servant locked themselves in a room then died of poison. Or skip the poison and just have a wound that's lethal eventually but not instantly. It's suddenly way more complicated and prone to failure, but oh well. Since it does require an outside person... Nanjos alibi wasn't great, was it?
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Dec 17, 2016 01:28
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resurgam40 posted:Well... In that case, it would have to be Nanjo who set up the bodies, and did the final killing bit; like idonotlikepeas said, he's the only one without a solid alibi for last night. But, that would mean he'd have had to have some way of locking the last door without a key, because all of them are accounted for within the rooms and had to have been set up because of the envelopes, so Qrr's idea of a poisoned weapon doesn't really take that into account- I can see the injured parties locking themselves in the room, but why not with the master key, and why set up the envelope? The fact that there was also a letter left with Kinzo meant that he had to have been immolated before being shoved down the "air vent", or how did the letter survive? Did Nanjo just chuck it down the air duct after burning the corpse? That's too much of a risk that the letter would be damaged. If they locked themselves in the room using the master key, that would be consistent with them having the master key on their person. As for the envelope, it would have been put there earlier by the killer - the only question there is if the dying servant would have messed with it and how the killer would have set it up so they died near it. But that wouldn't be impossible to do. In general, all 6 envelopes could have been placed after only a single murder (or even no murders if Nanjo could steal a master key). I kind of assume that all 6 rooms are closed rooms because if they aren't then the problem is trivial. It is true that Virgilia did not say so, and that could be the answer, but I assume they just didn't want to repeat the same thing 6 times. It'd be something for Battler to bring up, at least.
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Dec 17, 2016 04:50
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resurgam40 posted:But in that instance, how would they be killed? The killer wouldn't be able to use the master keys to lock the door once he got out for at least one or two instances, and no one committed suicide, so how would they end up dead? If they were shot from outside the room, that woulds leave some evidence behind and it wouldn't be a closed room, so in your scenario, how exactly would they die, and in what order? Five of them (including Kinzo) are killed by stabbing or shooting or whatever it is. Then they're placed in their rooms with the letters, and the doors are locked with a master key (and the last one is locked with the key found in the room where the sixth will die). Then the killer puts the envelope in the sixth room. Then they get the last servant and stab/shoot them in such a way that they don't instantly die. They chase them until they enter the sixth room and lock themselves in, after which they die from blood loss or poison or witches with magic stakes. Or maybe not that last one. Basically with a time delay on the death, one of the closed rooms can be explained, and if one is explained then they're all explained. Really Beatrice is acting like this loop of closed rooms is more impressive than a single closed room, and while it is more complicated it's also weaker because if any of the rooms isn't really closed then none of them are closed.
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Dec 17, 2016 07:20
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Alas, poor delayed death theory. You could have been the answer. ProfessorProf posted:As an exercise for those who are still in the mood to pick fights with witches: If you were in Battler's position, and Beatrice had successfully said "None of the six died in an accident" in red, what would you next move have been? Hmm, that would have been tough and yeah, we'd need to see a definition of accident. We know in red that none of them committed suicide. And we infer that not all of them died by homicide because Beatrice wasn't willing to say that in red, though as always there's the possibility that she's playing a deeper game - just because she doesn't say something in red doesn't mean it's false, and just because she acts flustered when Battler pushes doesn't mean he's actually getting anywhere. But it's the only thing we really have to go on. So if someone died and it wasn't suicide and it wasn't homicide... then that would mean it wasn't intentionally caused by a human. If it also wasn't an accident, then it wasn't unintentionally caused by a human. What if the boiler was off and Kinzo was in it (alive) for some reason and then it turned on? Would that count as an accident? Can the boiler even turn off? Kinzo is definitely the odd one out here, though that would raise the question of how he planned to leave the room since it was locked and he didn't have a key.
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Dec 18, 2016 19:37
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Dr Pepper posted:Well Battler. Eva Beatrice is a meta level person like Beato and meta Battler. None of those ever existed in the first place, so just because one of them became a witch doesn't change that they don't exist. Witches aren't real, but cold hard cash is.
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Dec 22, 2016 23:26
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resurgam40 posted:And then there's the weird bit about Eva and her "wishing" for things to come true which happened... That was the bit where she wished really hard, and worked really hard, and studied really hard, and in a shocking magical twist she did well in school? I think that someone who works hard doing well at something is definitely evidence that witches exist. Yup.
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Dec 24, 2016 02:40
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resurgam40 posted:Oh, come on, Qrr, that isn't what I'm saying at all. Yes, Eva's successes are absolutely because of her own personal drive, I'm not saying otherwise. I'm just recalling the really elaborate theories some guys put forth about how Rosa believed the legend of the Golden Witch and this, combined with her abuse, created another, murderous personality, one which was (potentially) behind the murders of the second episode, and hypothesizing, that maybe the other sister is more likely to care about the witch stuff than Rosa. I mean, let's face it: with the revelations we've learned in this chapter, we've confirmed that Rosa isn't as much into the Golden Legend as much as Eva was, what with witches constantly remind her of that time she saw a girl die on the island and never told anyone... but Eva absolutely is, and for reasons that kinda dwarf whatever drive Rosa had, who doesn't really care about the family stuff anymore and just wants money. She wants the headship, wants it so badly I do think she'd kill somebody... and just last episode she voiced her fears to Hideyoshi that she fears her ambitions are consuming her, or is acquiring a life of its own, which would neatly serve as a metaphor for that great grand ceremony. You don't have to believe in magic to believe that ambition can consume a person, and plant delusion. Yeah, you're right. I just thought it was funny that she credits her success to hard work, studying, and mystical magical powers beyond human ken.
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Dec 24, 2016 06:55
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An easy reason why they didn't take the gun is that they don't need it. Obviously they could kill someone who had a gun, so why would they want a gun of their own? It is true that this is a pretty easy murder to explain, either via Nanjo or some collaboration. And if the murder list that Eva Beatrice gave proves accurate, Eva will be a strong candidate to blame, possibly with Nanjo collaboration to make the first murders possible.
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Dec 27, 2016 04:36
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I actually think there's decent odds Eva Beatrice picks Eva as one of the sacrifices this go around, because she's really chafing around her restrictions and wants to leave behind her humanity. Or rather, that's the explanation we'll see, and the reality will be the actual murderer going after Eva for other reasons. Because witches aren't real, -uu-. Oh, and when Kyrie senses the ambush and Rudolf calls it women's intuition. Ahaha, what adorable sexism. I do wonder what Kyrie's deal is - maybe we'll find out on some other iteration.
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Dec 27, 2016 22:35
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Tender Child Loins posted:If it's possible to safely exit the guesthouse through the second floor window, then Nanjo, Eva, and Hideyoshi are definitely at the top of the potential culprit list. (That, or all the kids are covering up for each other.) If more than one person is involved, the killer could leave through the window and their accomplice could lock it behind them/open it for them, allowing for a "closed room" situation. However, this latest update kind of screws with that theory, in that no one has appeared wet so far. If there's heavy wind and rain from the typhoon, the culprit would have to cover up their damp clothes. It's not like anyone has changed outfits or anything like that. And would it really be possible to hold an umbrella and a gun while climbing down the side of a building? Frankly this episode has been low on "figure out the culprit" because it could be almost anyone. The first closed room was pretty weak, and the later deaths haven't been closed rooms at all. Eva is definitely a strong candidate because of finding the money, Eva Beatrice as a metaphor, and the "headache". A lot of people had alibis for the first set of murders, but a collaborator ruins those. For that matter, what if one of the first set of deaths was pretending to be dead and then when their closed room was opened they were killed? Then it could have been pretty much anyone, once again. Really, this time around it seems like it's all about character development for Beato. Seeing someone else doing pretty much the same things she's been doing gives her some perspective on it. The real world story is much more sidelined than it's been previously. As for the Chesters, I assume Eva (real Eva, not the "witch") is about to shoot Krauss and Natsuhi. Unless George leaving screws it up somehow.
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Jan 1, 2017 01:06
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KataraniSword posted:Basically, the typhoon only exists to block exit from the island and to cut off communication to the mainland. In other words, the storm makes all of Rokkenjima a locked room of its own. But does Rokkenjima follow Beatrices's Closed room definition? Say it in red! Otherwise I think we need to assume that all of the murders have been performed by a sniper who is not technically on the island. And we have strong reason to suspect that the sniper is several chimps standing on each other's shoulders.
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Jan 3, 2017 09:37
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"The witch's banquet steals lives in a terrible way, but it does not do so more than once. It does not toy with life and death."" I'm confused by this statement. We've seen the golden land, and among other things it featured killing someone enough times that you could fill a cup with their "last" drop of blood. Also Battler getting to "play" with the stakes, over and over again. But I guess we're getting to enjoy Beatrice's retcon and repentance episode. I wonder how much of this will carry over to the next episode - will Eva witch (who I guess isn't Eva Beatrice anymore) continue to be his opponent? For how long?
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Jan 4, 2017 20:06
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As Battler, I would go for repetition requested: right before Nanjos death, Eva, Battler, Jessica, and Nanjo were the only living humans on Rokkenjima. If she won't say that then the "Shannon died but Sayo didn't" theory could be a contender. If that did get repeated in red, then I might have to resign. That was a lot of red in that update.
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Jan 6, 2017 20:05
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oath2order posted:To spoil as little as possible--Magic Exists. I continue to believe that red text applies to magic too, because if it doesn't then it's not true. Also, witches are totes human, Beatrice and Evatrice aren't fooling anyone. Luckily that doesn't cause a conflict with any of the red text because magic isn't real. MonsterEnvy posted:Well Shannon has no real obvious motive for wanting a lot of people who are dead here dead. Could be more than one killer working separately - Eva didn't find the gold until after the first deaths, after all. Or of course there's the "devil's proof" that we don't need to figure out a motive, only say that one could potentially exist. Man, that's a terrible argument.
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Jan 7, 2017 05:27
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I'm very disappointed in Beato. I mean, you'd think that a figment of Battlers imagination would be able to hold it together for the last 30 seconds after she worked so hard on the lead in.
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Jan 8, 2017 21:16
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Man, Beatrice is really into shoe licking. I don't think it would be very fun to have someone lick my shoes, but I suppose I've never tried it (and never will). Also, Beatrice shows her usual logic skillz with her assumption that believing witches exist implies that you will lick their shoes. What if I believe witches exist and also hate them because they're huge jerks? That's a counterfactual, though, because witches definitely don't exist.
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Jan 15, 2017 01:47
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DLord posted:Well then I'll point out a logic flaw to the human side. Except each iteration has had a different set of people die. So part of disproving witches might be figuring out who actually died.
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Jan 18, 2017 20:57
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