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Derpies
Mar 11, 2014

by sebmojo
I'm thinking of trading Letang/Parise for Marchand/Orlov. I don't think Letang will match last years numbers and while Parise could rock under BB Marchand has just looked like a top 10 guy. Thoughts?

Edit: I've got Subban as well on D, basically drafted two top D in the first three rounds to barter for a top Forward

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Derpies
Mar 11, 2014

by sebmojo

Jamwad Hilder posted:

I would trade Letang/Parise for Marchand/Orlov without thinking twice.

I think Orlov is going to have a good year too. He was scratched or played third pairing last year, but the team seems to realize how stupid that is and he's getting good minutes so far. He gets 1st unit PP time and his regular pairing is with John Carlson.

Yeah it's a pretty good trade. Just hope my dumb league doesn't veto. The guy trading and I are both huge Caps fans and pretty experienced at Fantasy and I'm surprised he was willing to trade Marchand at all.

Derpies
Mar 11, 2014

by sebmojo

Jordan7hm posted:

If that's not a cap league, is a points league, and you have an IR I think you lose that trade badly.

If any of those things aren't true it's a lot closer. Letang is >> Orlov and Marchand is at best a small upgrade on Parise, at worst a small downgrade.

e: I made a trade yesterday. This is a multi category cap league with 17 guys so goalies are at a premium. Traded Brian Elliott for Kadri and a first round pick which will probably be a mid round pick. Dropped Ribeiro and picked up Kuemper. Basically I have zero respect for Elliott, love Kadri in multi cat leagues, and think Kuemper being traded is a real possibility given goalie injuries around the league and Minny having Stalock as a potential backup. My other goalies are Anderson and Philly's pair. Not world beaters but enough that I don't need to worry about GP.

It's a league that tracks a ridiculous amount of stats, and does have an IR. I'm fairly high on Orlov getting 35-40 points and more PP time this season, and he can actually hit OV in his wheelhouse unlike Carlson. I am banking high on Marchand, but I'm fairly sure he's going to have a career year like Letang did last year. I just don't trust Letang to stay healthy for more than 50-60 games even with an IR slot, or to repeat his career year.

Derpies
Mar 11, 2014

by sebmojo

Jordan7hm posted:

If Letang is healthy he's a top 5 D in the league in both multi cat (he's a sneaky hitter / blocker and gets 50+ PIMs) and point leagues and Orlov isn't close to that. Betting against that isn't a bad thing but you're wrong the other guy wins a lot.

Marchand is a high % shooter but counting on a guy to shoot 15% to get the kind of numbers you need him to get is always going to be dicey. He's nowhere near as good at multi cat stats as youd expect for his reputation. If he falters Parise is just as good as him.

He fills in the categories I do need much better than Parise will, and yeah Letang is hard to sell but I've got Subban and Goligoski as PPP guys and then guys to pick up blocks hits and plus minus, so I'm not hurting too bad losing Letang on multi cat.

Derpies
Mar 11, 2014

by sebmojo

Jordan7hm posted:

You do you obviously but based on last year you're giving up 100 shots, 60 blocks, 36 PPP and 30 pts, and only coming ahead on PIMs by 10 (in nearly 20 less games, which you can mitigate with IR...). You're banking hard on Letang being injured.

Well he's hurt now so I'm on point!

Derpies
Mar 11, 2014

by sebmojo
Start or sit Elliot? Try far up in the other goalie categories by Fleurys shut out got me scared. Up 10-3 head to head but on razor margins and a SO could swing it to me.

Derpies
Mar 11, 2014

by sebmojo

genki posted:

As a general note, the slim chance of a SO is almost never worth trying to win versus other categories. It's way more likely you'll just lose SV% and/or GAA. In a league with four or five goalie categories, I'm usually happy to keep things tied (2-2-1) if I have a good GAA/SV%. Depends how likely you are to take over other categories (Wins or SVs) and whether the opponent has anyone playing... SO is the riskiest category and I would never play for the SO category if there's a chance I could lose other categories.

Also I'm saying this after knowing Elliott didn't get a SO. Haha.

I know but I had to Hail Mary. Thankfully Doughty is a pussy and didn't get a hit after the 1st period and I won 7-6 without having to go to tie breakers. I was WAY up in save percentage and the other goalie cats too so wasn't worried.

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Derpies
Mar 11, 2014

by sebmojo
Also hey whoever a billion pages ago told me trading Parise and Letang for Marchand was bad LOL

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