0-16 Watch: 2016 Edition

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Will There Be a Perfect Team This Season?
	Yes, Both 19-0 and 0-16
	Yes, but only 19-0
	Yes, but only 0-16
	lol no

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Some good analysis on the current undefeated teams from The Ringer.

The Ringer posted:

The NFL Standings Are Lying To You

Although Bill Parcells once said �You are what your record says you are,� that doesn�t quite hold in the early part of the season. At this time last year, the Falcons were undefeated under new head coach Dan Quinn and looked ready to rejoin the NFC�s elite. The Bills (2�1) had beaten two preseason darlings, the Colts and the Dolphins, and appeared poised to challenge the Patriots in the AFC East. And with two early-season division victories, the Cowboys (2�1) already had strong footing atop the NFC East. On the other side of the spectrum, the Seahawks, Chiefs, Texans, and Redskins all stumbled out of the gate, each losing two of their first three games.

Of course, Seattle, Kansas City, Houston, and Washington all made the playoffs while the Falcons lost eight of their final 11, the Cowboys won just two more games all season, and the Bills did what they always do: fade late to finish out of playoff contention.

This season, the undefeated Eagles, Ravens, and Vikings have started fast, while the Cardinals, Bengals, and Panthers are all in various stages of failed launch. But with only three games of information, the standings don�t give us enough context. So let�s take a closer look at the key stats, matchups, and schematic variables that tell us whether these teams are as good � or as bad � as their records say they are.

Are These Teams Good?

Philadelphia Eagles: 3�0, First in the NFC East

The Eagles traded their starting quarterback, Sam Bradford, a week before the regular season and decided to roll with the untested Carson Wentz, and so far the gamble is paying off. Philadelphia has won its first three games against the Browns, Bears, and Steelers by a combined score of 92�27, and Wentz has been the revelation of the young season. While Jared Goff sits on the bench in L.A., the second-overall pick has completed 64.7 percent of his passes at 7.5 yards per attempt, with five touchdowns and no picks for a 103.8 passer rating. The eye test backs up the numbers, too: He�s been calm in the pocket and has thrown with confidence, accuracy, and touch.

On the other side, the defense has been stout. Through three games they�ve given up just 27 points (fewest in the league), have six takeaways (tied for seventh), and racked up 10 sacks (tied for third). Along with Seattle, they�re one of two teams that has not given up a passing touchdown, and their opponents� 213 rushing rushing yards is the second fewest in the league. Fletcher Cox (3.0 sacks) and Brandon Graham (3.0 sacks) fit perfectly into new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz�s 4�3 scheme: Cox can shoot forward with reckless abandon in this one-gap scheme, instead of playing back and manning two gaps, and Graham�s explosive athleticism makes him a great wide nine�technique rusher. In the secondary, free-agent pickup Rodney McLeod already has two picks.

What We Don�t Know: We didn�t see much of Wentz in the preseason, so there wasn�t much of a scouting report out there on him. Opposing defenses will adjust to his strengths and weaknesses and account for his tendencies, so it�s reasonable to expect an increase in mistakes going forward. Maybe he flourishes on quick slants over the middle, maybe he struggles diagnosing zone blitzes, or maybe he�s most comfortable moving to his right to escape pressure � whatever the case may be, opposing coordinators will work to take away plays or passes that he leans on and that get him into a rhythm. Philly�s offensive brain trust � which includes former pro quarterbacks in head coach Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Frank Reich � will have him well prepared to stay ahead of the opposition, but it�s impossible to know how well the young passer will adapt to game plans specifically designed to take away his favorite throws.

What We Can Expect: Schwartz is an excellent defensive coordinator � he�s had a top-5 defense per Football Outsiders� DVOA the last three years he�s coordinated � and has a ton of talent to work with, so there�s no reason to believe the early dominance by the Eagles defense is a fluke. Philly�s first two opponents (Cleveland and Chicago) are terrible, but the Eagles also just held the high-flying Steelers to their worst offensive showing since the first week of the 2013 season.

Add to that a special teams group that finished top-10 by DVOA the past two seasons, and Philly looks like a club that could have balance in all three phases. If Wentz can continue to run the Eagles offense with efficiency and adapt as defenses identify his vulnerabilities, expect the Eagles to be a legit contender in the NFC.

Baltimore Ravens: 3�0, First in the AFC North

Unsurprisingly, for the Ravens it�s all about the defense. Through three games, they�ve given up 44 points (14.7 per game, fourth in the NFL), have picked off five passes (tied for second), and gotten home for nine sacks (tied for seventh). Plus, they�re allowing just 4.5 yards per play, which is third behind only the Vikings and the Seahawks.

The offense is another story. They rank 24th in points (19.0 per game), 25th in total yards (324.3 per game), and 28th in yards per play (4.9). They�ve leaned way too much on Joe Flacco�s arm, too: They�re 26th in rushing yards (82.3 per game), 30th in rush yards per attempt (3.3), and have just one score on the ground.

Baltimore�s three wins have come by a combined 13 points, the third-lowest point differential for an undefeated team through three weeks in the past 15 years. In order to stay undefeated, the Ravens have had to rally from a 20�2 deficit against the Browns, who were playing with a backup quarterback, and they barely snuck by the Jaguars this week with the help of a blocked field goal late in the game.

What We Don�t Know: There have been a few, infrequent signs of life from the Ravens offense � Flacco has hooked up with Mike Wallace for three touchdowns, and he did hit 21 straight passes in Baltimore�s 19�17 win over the Jags � but the Ravens signal-caller has struggled with turnovers. He�s tossed four picks, taken six sacks, and lost a fumble. He�s only about 10 months out from an ACL tear, though, so it�s likely he has yet to regain full mobility and strength in his legs. As the year goes on and he starts to gain more confidence in his knee, we could see his accuracy and velocity downfield improve.

What We Can Expect: While clearly better than last season�s group that finished 20th in DVOA, the Ravens defense hasn�t exactly faced a murderers� row in Buffalo, Cleveland, and Jacksonville. This group doesn�t look like it�s at the elite level that can carry an inept offense, so unless head coach John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Marc Trestman can jump-start their run game, the Ravens� lack of bite on offense is going to come back to hurt them going forward. Expect the Ravens to put up a fight in the AFC North, but they won�t stay ahead of Cincinnati and Pittsburgh for too long.

Minnesota Vikings: 3�0, First in the NFC North

The Vikings� nightmare cluster of early-season injuries to Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson, and Matt Kalil hasn�t really mattered a whole lot thus far. A solid defensive group from 2015 appears to have taken a big jump forward this season and emerged as one of the league�s elite units. Everson Griffen is breaking out as a superstar pass rusher, Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks provide speed and versatility in the middle, and a deep secondary is anchored by a standout safety in Harrison Smith. The Minnesota defense has given up just 40 points (13.3 per game, third in the NFL) and 4.4 yards per play (first) while racking up 15 sacks (first), five interceptions (tied for second), and nine takeaways (second). A little more than one out of every four of their defensive series has produced a turnover. You can beat anybody with that kind of defense.

Given that they lost their top three offensive players, the offense hasn�t been as terrible as you�d expect. In two starts, Sam Bradford has looked passable as a point guard, completing 67.8 percent of his passes for 457 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions, and his 7.7 yards per attempt shows that he�s pushing the ball down the field, primarily to Stefon Diggs (20 catches, 325 yards, one TD).

What We Don�t Know: The Vikings have given up pressure on 45 percent of Bradford�s passing snaps, and in two games, he�s been hit 15 times (including six sacks) despite a game plan that gets the ball out of his hand quickly. That�s not the way to get your notoriously brittle quarterback through a full season.

What We Can Expect: Ultimately, whether it�s Bradford under center or it�s Shaun Hill taking his place, the Vikings offense will be limited. Their margin for error is bigger with Bradford running the show on offense � they�re more dynamic and defenses have to respect his ability to throw downfield � but this Vikings defense is the real deal, and unlike the Ravens, this group can carry Minnesota to the playoffs.

https://theringer.com/the-nfl-standings-are-lying-to-you-d7672fdcc903#.ma2k5p4lu

# ? Sep 28, 2016 20:20

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# ? May 16, 2024 03:17

NotWearingPants: Jan 3, 2006; by Nyc_Tattoo; Nap Ghost

axeil posted:

Some good analysis on the current undefeated teams from The Ringer.

https://theringer.com/the-nfl-standings-are-lying-to-you-d7672fdcc903#.ma2k5p4lu

tl;dr:
Eagles are for real
Vikings... maybe?
Ravens not so much

# ? Sep 28, 2016 22:02

Edmund Sparkler: Jul 4, 2003; For twelve years, you have been asking: Who is John Galt? This is John Galt speaking. I am the man who loves his life. I am the man who does not sacrifice his love or his values. I am the man who has deprived you of victims and thus has destroyed your world, and if you wish to know why you are peris

For real, can't wait until Week 11 when the Hawks take on the Eagles at Centurylink. :hawksin:

# ? Sep 28, 2016 23:41

YOLOsubmarine: Oct 19, 2004; When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Meredith Baxter-Burnout posted:

For real, can't wait until Week 11 when the Hawks take on the Eagles at Centurylink.

Yea, I like watching the Hawks lose too, especially at home.

# ? Sep 29, 2016 03:06

Ghost Dog: Aug 17, 2016

hey the ravens are undefeated lol

# ? Sep 30, 2016 16:47

adaz: Mar 7, 2009

Good news...

We're down to the Eagles/Broncos/Vikings in the wins - I really don't see any of those tems racking up 16. I mean, Sam Bradford, Carson Wentz, and Siemien/Lynch? Undefeated?

ON THE OTHER HAND! The browns are 0-4 and baby we got a shot. They're going to get killed by the Patriots next week and then we get the Titans, which they have a good old 30% chance of winning per ESPN's simulator doohickey. Actually for fun, here is their remaining schedule with their chances to win.

pre:

Patriots        - 21.8% (noteable this is done against the current team, without tom brady) 
@Titans         - 29.2%
@Bengals        - 18.8%
Jets            - 38.6%
Cowboys         - 39.6%
@Ravens         - 24.5%
Steelers        - 33.1%
Giants          - 40.7%
Bengals         - 40.1%
@Bills          - 21.9%
Chargers        - 40.4%
@Steelers       - 20.1%

Ouch. Best chance to win is oddly at home against the giants.

# ? Oct 3, 2016 07:22

a neat cape: Feb 22, 2007; Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

I feel extremely comfortable in saying that the Browns will beat the Chargers.

# ? Oct 3, 2016 07:34

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

8 wins each from Lynch and Siemian is totally doable :colbert:

# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:10

Chris James 2: Aug 9, 2012

If the Browns can't beat the Titans I say they're going the distance. Chargers is the only other one that looks like it'll be close, but I have enough confidence in the all time kings of blowing games to outdo the current champs and keep the losing streak going

# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:24

Chichevache: Feb 17, 2010; One of the funniest posters in GIP.

Just not intentionally.

RG3 will come back, win 4 of 7, ruin their draft, and break again.

# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:27

Magicpants: Sep 15, 2011; Certified Poster

Browns are going to the break the record for number of footballs symbolically buried in a season

# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:30

adaz: Mar 7, 2009

The weird thing is the browns actually have a decent run game. I mean, unlike that horrid Lions team they aren't 32nd in the league in nearly every category - they actually have hte #1 rushing offense in the NFL. I think it's likely they pull 2-3 wins and avoid going 0-16 but it's the Browns. They could certainly poo poo themselves every single game

# ? Oct 3, 2016 08:34

Flikken: Oct 23, 2009; 10,363 snaps and not a playoff win to show for it

adaz posted:

The weird thing is the browns actually have a decent run game. I mean, unlike that horrid Lions team they aren't 32nd in the league in nearly every category - they actually have hte #1 rushing offense in the NFL. I think it's likely they pull 2-3 wins and avoid going 0-16 but it's the Browns. They could certainly poo poo themselves every single game

A run game is nice when they don't put the ball on the ground and fail to cover it up on 2 subsequent drives. Which causes bad field position and a rookie QB throwing from his own goal line trying to force a pass late in the game to save it.

# ? Oct 3, 2016 10:49

hump day bitches!: Apr 3, 2011

adaz posted:

The weird thing is the browns actually have a decent run game. I mean, unlike that horrid Lions team they aren't 32nd in the league in nearly every category - they actually have hte #1 rushing offense in the NFL. I think it's likely they pull 2-3 wins and avoid going 0-16 but it's the Browns. They could certainly poo poo themselves every single game

Hue Jackson is a poo poo talker magician of the run game.He made McFadden look good in Oakland for two seasons.It's a shame he's going to get destroyed by the Browns.

# ? Oct 3, 2016 10:49

Quiet Feet: Dec 14, 2009; THE HELL IS WITH THIS ASS!?

Chichevache posted:

RG3 will come back, win 4 of 7, ruin their draft, and break again.

People say this as if the Browns wouldn't waste the first or second pick in the draft any more than they would waste the 8th or 16th or 21st pick.

# ? Oct 3, 2016 12:48

Blowjob Overtime: Apr 6, 2008; Steeeeriiiiiiiiike twooooooo!

Vikings play the Eagles week 7, so at least one of them isn't making it past that point undefeated (if either of them make it there to begin with).

# ? Oct 3, 2016 16:21

a new study bible!: Feb 2, 2009; BIG DICK NICK
A Philadelphia Legend
Fly Eagles Fly

Vikes going to lose tonight, sadly.

# ? Oct 3, 2016 16:44

Badfinger: Dec 16, 2004; Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.

a new study bible! posted:

Vikes going to lose tonight, sadly.

I highly doubt it

# ? Oct 3, 2016 19:09

corn on the cop: Oct 12, 2012; Break what must be broken, once for all, that's all, and take the suffering on oneself.

â Corey Dostoyevsky

Badfinger posted:

I highly doubt it

the giants are starting a practice squad safety that lost them the game last week and may be short 2 of their top 3 corners. the vikings should win this game but the giants specialize in stupid wins

# ? Oct 3, 2016 19:15

Chichevache: Feb 17, 2010; One of the funniest posters in GIP.

Just not intentionally.

a new study bible! posted:

Vikes going to lose tonight, sadly.

The Giants offense will outscore the Vikings offense. The Vikings will still have more points at the end of the game.

Eli Manning will have 1 interception, two fumbles.

# ? Oct 3, 2016 19:15

Febreeze: Oct 24, 2011; I want to care, butt I dont

Chichevache posted:

The Giants offense will outscore the Vikings offense. The Vikings will still have more points at the end of the game.

Eli Manning will have 1 interception, two fumbles.

Weak

3 picks, one for 6, and only 1 fumble. However Darkwa and a WR will also fumble.

# ? Oct 3, 2016 19:18

Impossibly Perfect Sphere: Nov 6, 2002; They wasted Luanne on Lucky!

She could of have been so much more but the writers just didn't care!

O/U pieces of equipment OBJ will fight and lose to?

# ? Oct 3, 2016 19:39

WHOOPS: Nov 6, 2009

I think the Vikings will win but would not be surprised in the least if they lost because that'd be just like them.

# ? Oct 3, 2016 19:44

NotWearingPants: Jan 3, 2006; by Nyc_Tattoo; Nap Ghost

Can the Vikings handle the Giant's vaunted $150 million defensive line that leads the NFL in sacks?

edit: oops, had the sack list upside down. They are last.

# ? Oct 3, 2016 19:57

Chichevache: Feb 17, 2010; One of the funniest posters in GIP.

Just not intentionally.

Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:

O/U pieces of equipment OBJ will fight and lose to?

He's going to get 60 yards receiving and one touchdown. He's also going to get 100 Yards in

from bullshit DPI calls against Trae Waynes.

Febreeze posted:

Weak

3 picks, one for 6, and only 1 fumble. However Darkwa and a WR will also fumble.

I think Eli is actually going to play pretty well, considering he won't have a run game and his receivers are going to get owned all day long. His one interception is going to be either a tip, or a bad route from a WR. He will throw one near-pick that gets dropped by Harrison Smith. Otherwise he's going to be getting hit all night, but he will grit his way through.

# ? Oct 3, 2016 19:59

FUCKFACE MORON: Apr 23, 2010; by sebmojo

The real question is if OBJ will melt down like a baby again

# ? Oct 3, 2016 20:02

Blowjob Overtime: Apr 6, 2008; Steeeeriiiiiiiiike twooooooo!

Chichevache posted:

He's going to get 60 yards receiving and one touchdown. He's also going to get 100 Yards in from bullshit DPI calls against Trae Waynes.

No, it'll probably be Xavier Rhodes covering him and getting called for DPI.

# ? Oct 3, 2016 20:14

adaz: Mar 7, 2009

NotWearingPants posted:

Can the Vikings handle the Giant's vaunted $150 million defensive line that leads the NFL in sacks?

edit: oops, had the sack list upside down. They are last.

They might be down in sacks but I saw football outsiders was saying they were top 3 in terms of pressures. It's doing something for them

# ? Oct 3, 2016 20:26

CyberPingu: Sep 15, 2013; If you're not striving to improve, you'll end up going backwards.

Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:

O/U pieces of equipment OBJ will fight and lose to?

Does Bradfords gurney count?

# ? Oct 3, 2016 20:32

Benne: Sep 2, 2011; STOP DOING HEROIN

Only one winless team after Week 4. Does that feel earlier than usual to anyone else? Normally it seems like we have to wait until Week 7 or 8 for the last teams to get their first wins.

And I don't see the Browns going the distance -- if Josh McCown was healthy they'd probably be 2-2 right now. Hue Jackson knows what he's doing, and eventually that should yield results, if only by accident.

# ? Oct 3, 2016 20:57

hifi: Jul 25, 2012

Benne posted:

Only one winless team after Week 4. Does that feel earlier than usual to anyone else? Normally it seems like we have to wait until Week 7 or 8 for the last teams to get their first wins.

And I don't see the Browns going the distance -- if Josh McCown was healthy they'd probably be 2-2 right now. Hue Jackson knows what he's doing, and eventually that should yield results, if only by accident.

last year:
giants lost 2 in a row
baltimore lost 3 in a row
new orleans lost 3 in a row
bears lost 3 in a row
detroit lost 5 in a row

# ? Oct 3, 2016 21:17

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:

O/U pieces of equipment OBJ will fight and lose to?

I don't think this is necessary because he's had a whole week to prepare for the rematch

# ? Oct 4, 2016 00:26

Chichevache: Feb 17, 2010; One of the funniest posters in GIP.

Just not intentionally.

There are two undefeated teams left, but the Vikings are more undefeated than the Eagles.

# ? Oct 4, 2016 02:47

NotWearingPants: Jan 3, 2006; by Nyc_Tattoo; Nap Ghost

Chichevache posted:

There are two undefeated teams left, but the Vikings are more undefeated than the Eagles.

But the Vikings have to play the Texans before they meet the Eagles. The Eagles only have to beat the Lions and Redskins.

# ? Oct 4, 2016 03:09

shyduck: Oct 3, 2003

Eagles are probably gonna lose that one to the Redskins just because

# ? Oct 4, 2016 03:10

Chichevache: Feb 17, 2010; One of the funniest posters in GIP.

Just not intentionally.

NotWearingPants posted:

But the Vikings have to play the Texans before they meet the Eagles. The Eagles only have to beat the Lions and Redskins.

I forgot the Broncos exist too!

# ? Oct 4, 2016 04:17

Dubious: Mar 7, 2006; The Heroes the Vikings Deserve; Lipstick Apathy

4-0

feels good

# ? Oct 4, 2016 04:26

Febreeze: Oct 24, 2011; I want to care, butt I dont

NotWearingPants posted:

But the Vikings have to play the Texans before they meet the Eagles. The Eagles only have to beat the Lions and Redskins.

It's cute you say this like the Texans aren't at least as bad as the Redskins

# ? Oct 4, 2016 04:37

NattyBo: Sep 20, 2004; Football Team.

The Washington Redskins will beat the Philadelphia Eagles

# ? Oct 4, 2016 04:56

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# ? May 16, 2024 03:17

Badfinger: Dec 16, 2004; Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.

Badfinger posted:

I highly doubt it

It's nice to not have misplaced confidence for once.

24-10 is the appropriate score. The game was never close, the Giants didn't look good, but the Vikings didn't ever really put the hammer down.

# ? Oct 4, 2016 14:33

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