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Dresh posted:I wonder how many people got into Monty Hall arguments themselves after watching this? I always found that the best way to explain it was to present an alternate 100 door scenario where you pick one and the host then opens 98 of the other doors leaving your pick and one other. Had this argument about 10 years ago with a bunch of other computer engineers one day when we got bored at work. Even with the photos from wikipedia dumping the proof at their feet they still tried to argue. The whole reason we had the argument was because someone followed some digg link about how people have an inherently lovely understanding of probability, so I guess that article was right. swickles posted:I always thought of it as getting it wrong. You have a 1 in 3 chance to get it right, which means 2 in 3 to get it wrong. The host reveals one which is a wrong choice, since you were more likely to get it wrong on the first guess, you do better by switching. Yeah that's pretty much how I try to simplify it. On your first selection, odds are you picked the wrong door. The host then takes the other wrong answer off the board
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Dec 5, 2016 06:59
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Dresh posted:I wonder how many people got into Monty Hall arguments themselves after watching this? I always found that the best way to explain it was to present an alternate 100 door scenario where you pick one and the host then opens 98 of the other doors leaving your pick and one other. I find a simple diagram like this makes it clearest. 
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Dec 5, 2016 08:17
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You're dealing with two items, basically, not three. You're discussing two sets rather than three individual choices. One set has a 33 percent change, the other a 66. Of that second set, one item in the set has a 0 percent chance of having a 66 percent chance, and the other has a 100 percent chance of a 66 percent chance. So you always switch to the second set.
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Dec 5, 2016 12:36
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Nah, depends on what the item is. If it's a car or something I don't give a poo poo, so if I lose whatever. If I stick and hit anyway I look like a boss.
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Dec 5, 2016 14:47
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FactsAreUseless posted:You're dealing with two items, basically, not three. You're discussing two sets rather than three individual choices. One set has a 33 percent change, the other a 66. Of that second set, one item in the set has a 0 percent chance of having a 66 percent chance, and the other has a 100 percent chance of a 66 percent chance. So you always switch to the second set. Exactly. You have to think of it as choosing an answer set.
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Dec 5, 2016 17:42
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You all need to go bone someone, like now.
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Dec 5, 2016 22:05
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fizzymercy posted:You all need to go bone someone, like now. Bone? BONE? BONE!?!?
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Dec 5, 2016 23:49
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The best laugh I had at Holt was his giggle over a marshed mellow.
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Dec 6, 2016 07:38
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Saving energy is trending!
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Dec 7, 2016 02:14
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Haha, STOP TALKING!!!!!!!!
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Dec 7, 2016 02:17
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This is amazing use of Ken Marino.
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Dec 7, 2016 02:20
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I know how to kiss, I read a book
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Dec 7, 2016 03:14
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Holy poo poo the cold open.
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Dec 7, 2016 03:56
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CAPTAIN CAPSLOCK posted:Holy poo poo the cold open. I loved it, but I was kind of hoping they stared at each other then cut to the theme.
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Dec 7, 2016 04:02
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Solid ep, that trailer for Fist Fight in the first break lasted about 2 minutes tho. Hope it doesn't get shown a bunch before February as it could be fun, and I don't want to be sick of it by then.
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Dec 7, 2016 06:39
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swickles posted:Haha, STOP TALKING!!!!!!!! That scene loving destroyed me. Very solid episode, I like it alot.
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Dec 7, 2016 13:28
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Test time, diaper up!
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Dec 7, 2016 17:59
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Of COURSE, Santiago has a blog about laminating.
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Dec 7, 2016 21:24
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"Not to brag, but I was name checked on my kindergarten teacher's suicide note." I love you Gina
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Dec 10, 2016 05:23
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This show is on and its really good. Love the Latvian "poo poo talk" while fighting.
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Dec 14, 2016 02:17
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Trust me it's gonna be fine. Really? Because you said that about Die Hard 5 Jake. 
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Dec 14, 2016 03:27
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I'm detective Papa and we're going to the farmers market. I hope they have aged gouda.
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Dec 14, 2016 16:56
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It's potty time!
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Dec 14, 2016 23:06
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Loved Captain Holt with the split second conducting So subtle and perfect 
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Dec 16, 2016 12:31
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I liked the new episode but why didn't they just have Scully be the main singer for the caroling competition?
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Dec 16, 2016 14:30
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TFRazorsaw posted:I liked the new episode but why didn't they just have
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Dec 16, 2016 14:44
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Scully is an actually capable singer. In fact he has a solo portion of the act, even!
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Dec 16, 2016 14:50
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TFRazorsaw posted:Scully is an actually capable singer. In fact he has a solo portion of the act, even! No one believes he is actually capable of anything. 
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Dec 18, 2016 14:56
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I mean, they've lost this contest for the last couple of years, at least some of which I'm assuming that was their game plan and it didn't work.
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Dec 18, 2016 22:40
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cant cook creole bream posted:No one believes he is actually capable of anything. The rest of the squad is too bad for Scully to carry.
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Dec 19, 2016 04:37
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Good news: Brooklyn Nine-Nine has a one-hour episode on New Year's Day Bad news: It'll be the last episode until April, probably
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Dec 19, 2016 06:11
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all-Rush mixtape posted:Good news: Brooklyn Nine-Nine has a one-hour episode on New Year's Day Sweet, just need to figure out how to watch it in another country! (If anyone is from Panama and watches the show what channel is it on if its on?)
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Dec 19, 2016 06:28
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I have a funny feeling that watching this anywhere outside the US (and maybe Canada) at any time reasonably soon after the original air date is going to involve 
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Dec 19, 2016 09:23
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My local TV listings are showing a two-part episode tonight at 8:30. It was unexpected to say the least. I wasn't expecting any new episodes for at least a week, so this is a nice surprise.
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Jan 1, 2017 17:32
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"Why won't it burn?" "Because it never fully dries."
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Jan 2, 2017 02:50
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Jake and Amy's Harry Potter exchange was really adorable.
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Jan 2, 2017 02:54
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DOG FRAUD! "I sold a guy a fake Pekinese. Turned out it was a cat."
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Jan 2, 2017 03:00
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drat, Craig ballooned up Gymnast Ana Beatriz! PotatoJudge fucked around with this message at 03:03 on Jan 2, 2017 |
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Jan 2, 2017 03:01
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Now you know my deepest shame.
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Jan 2, 2017 03:02
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"Terry hates hospitals, they reek of death. ... Oh no, not you ma'am! You reek of life!"
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Jan 2, 2017 03:02
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