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dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

mercenarynuker posted:

I love reading this analysis every week (to be fair, it helps that WMU is doing well so far). Between you and Korranus's hilarious moon poll that is way, WAY over-valuing WMU, I appreciate the crazy effort posts when all I tend to offer in return is the post equivalent of meat-fart diarrhea

Western Michigan's got nothing on #10 Troy.

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dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

I used my moon poll and a RNG to play out the season and come up with some bowl predictions of my own. Guaranteed to be 100% wrong and maybe listing a team twice. Darkest timeline or your money back -

pre:
Conference Winners - 

ACC - Clemson (13-0) over Virginia Tech (8-5)
Big 10 - Michigan (13-0) over Wisconsin (9-4)
Big 12 - Baylor (11-1)
Pac 12 - Colorado (10-3) over Washington (12-1)
SEC - Alabama (12-1) over Florida (9-4)

AAC - Navy (9-4) over Temple (8-5)
CUSA - Middle Tennessee (10-2) over Louisiana Tech (7-6)
MAC - Western Michigan (13-0) over Akron (7-6)
MWC - San Diego State (11-1) over Wyoming (9-4)
SunBelt - Appalachian State (10-2)

*************************************

Playoffs - 

#1 Michigan (13-0)
#2 Clemson (13-0)
#3 Alabama (12-1)
#4 Baylor (11-1)

First four out: Washington (12-1), Ohio State (10-2), Texas A&M (11-1), Western Michigan (13-0)

*************************************

NY6 Bowls - 

Orange		Virginia Tech		Wisconsin
Cotton		Western Michigan	Washington
Rose		Ohio State		Colorado
Sugar		West Virginia		Texas A&M

*************************************

Mere Mortal Bowls - 

Alamo		Oklahoma		Washington State
Arizona		Idaho			Wyoming
Armed Forces	Navy			*Ohio U
Bahamas		Eastern Mich		Middle Tennessee
Belk		Florida St		Auburn
Birmingham	Houston			Kentucky
Boca Raton	UCF			Colorado State
Cactus		*Utah State		*Memphis
Camellia	Akron			Georgia Southern
Citrus		Florida			North Carolina
Cure		Cincinnati		Troy
Foster Farms	Iowa			USC
Dollar General	App State		Toledo
Hawaii		Hawaii			*Tulane
Heart of Dallas	Maryland		North Texas
Holiday		Minnesota		Utah
Independence	Wake Forest		*Army
Las Vegas	California		*Air Force
Liberty		Texas Tech		Arkansas
Miami Beach	Tulsa			Western Kentucky
Military	Temple			Wake Forest
Music City	Penn State		Georgia
New Mexico	Old Dominion		New Mexico
New Orleans	Southern Miss		Troy
Outback		Nebraska		Tennessee
Pinstripe	Miami (FL)		Indiana
Poinsettia	San Diego State		BYU
Potato		Central Michigan	Boise State
QuickLane	Georgia Tech		Northwestern
Russell Ath	Louisville		Oklahoma State
St.Petersburg	South Florida		Louisiana Tech
Sun		Boston College		Stanford
TaxSlayer	Pittsburgh		South Carolina
Texas		TCU			LSU
		
Sitting at Home: SMU and UNC Charlotte.  Time for more bowls!

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

Duckaerobics posted:

Just for fun who beat bama in your moon poll? I'm assuming LSU, but I really want it to be Auburn.

Yep, it was LSU. 8.4% chance to win.

Similar to Auburn's 8.8% chance. Mississippi State is at 0.3%.


Undefeated chances -

Alabama - 83.3%
Western Michigan - 70.1%
Clemson - 69.2%
Washington - 63.2%
Michigan - 54.8%


dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

C. Everett Koop posted:

And no better way to bid Idaho bon voyage than with a trip to Hawai'i.


Idaho gets one last lap next year, of course who knows if they'll actually get 6 wins. Yeah, bon voyage

dirty shrimp money fucked around with this message at 06:11 on Nov 7, 2016

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

Another round of RNG moon poll madness, this time much chalkier -

pre:
Conference Winners - 

ACC - Clemson (13-0) over Virginia Tech (8-5) - No change.

Big 10 - Ohio State (13-0) over Wisconsin (10-3) - Ohio State beats Michigan in a virtual playoff game.  Wisconsin uses the relatively clear path to their advantage to win out.

Big 12 - West Virginia (11-1) - West Virginia wins out but the loss to 4-loss Oklahoma State leaves them just short in the chase for #4.

Pac 12 - Washington (13-0) over Colorado (10-3) - No upset for Colorado this time.

SEC - Alabama (13-0) over Florida (7-6) - The SEC East devolves into Operation 4-4 where a five-way tie for second develops at 4-4.  Florida at 5-3 stands out just enough to run into Lord Saban.



AAC - Temple (10-3) over Houston (9-4) - Navy falls apart and Houston recovers just in time to see Tom Herman take that Texas job.  

CUSA - Western Kentucky (10-3) over Louisiana Tech (9-4) - AKA, the usual outcome in Conference USA.

MAC - Western Michigan (13-0) over Ohio (8-5) - The Akron loss now puts Ohio in front of the boat.

MWC - San Diego State (10-3) over Wyoming (9-4) - No change.

SunBelt - Appalachian State (10-2) - No change.

*************************************

Playoffs - 

#1 Alabama (13-0)
#2 Clemson (13-0)
#3 Washington (13-0)
#4 Ohio State (12-1)

First four out: Michigan (11-1), West Virginia (11-1), Louisville (10-2), Penn State (11-1)

*************************************

NY6 Bowls - 

Orange		Virginia Tech		Penn State
Cotton		Western Michigan	Louisville
Rose		Michigan		Colorado
Sugar		West Virginia		Texas A&M

*************************************

Mere Mortal Bowls - 

Alamo		Oklahoma		USC
Arizona		Utah State		Idaho
Armed Forces	Navy			TCU
Bahamas		UCF			Central Michigan
Belk		Florida State		South Carolina
Birmingham	Houston			Kentucky
Boca Raton	Memphis			Louisiana Tech
Cactus		Kansas State		Arizona State
Camellia	Akron			Georgia Southern
Citrus		Wisconsin		Auburn
Cure		Colorado State*		Northwestern+
Foster Farms	Stanford		Army*
Dollar General	Miami (OH)		Troy
Hawaii		Western Kentucky	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Middle Tennessee	Air Force*
Holiday		Minnesota		Washington State
Independence	Pittsburgh		Georgia
Las Vegas	San Diego State		Oregon
Liberty		Baylor			Vanderbilt
Miami Beach	Tulsa			Toledo
Military	Temple			Old Dominion*
Music City	Iowa			Florida
New Mexico	UTSA			New Mexico
New Orleans	Southern Miss		Appalachian State
Outback		Nebraska		LSU
Pinstripe	Georgia Tech		Maryland
Poinsettia	Wyoming			BYU
Potato		Ohio U			Boise State
QuickLane	Eastern Michigan*	UTEP*
Russell Ath	North Carolina		Oklahoma State
St. Petersburg	South Florida		Indiana+
Sun		Wake Forest		Utah
TaxSlayer	Miami (FL)		Tennessee
Texas		Texas			Arkansas

* denotes non-slotted teams
+ Northwestern and Indiana are 5-7 and in via APR.  

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

Chaos Reigns as Trump Cancels Moon Powl Bowl Season

pre:
ACC - Clemson (11-2) over Virginia Tech (9-4) - No change, despite Clemson losing the Textile Bowl somehow.  

Big 10 - Wisconsin (11-2) over Penn State (9-4) - Ohio State beats Michigan.

Big 12 - Oklahoma State (10-2) - Bedlam becomes the Big 12 Championship game, Okie Lite emerges as the one true champion.

Pac 12 - Colorado (10-3) over Washington (11-2) - The RNG continues to forecast an upset as Washington is knocked out of the playoff.  Does a 3 loss Colorado really make it?

SEC - Alabama (13-0) over Florida (9-4) - No change.



AAC - Navy (11-2) over Temple (8-5) - Island hopping over the Central Time Zone pays benefits.

CUSA - Western Kentucky (10-3) over Louisiana Tech (9-4) - No change.

MAC - Western Michigan (13-0) over Ohio (8-5) - No change.

MWC - Boise State (12-1) over San Diego State (11-2) - Boise would get serious run as a potential NY6 at large in a normal year.  We aren't having a normal year.

Sun Belt - Troy (11-1) - Congrats to Troy, the first Sun Belt team in the top 25.

*************************************

Playoffs - 

#1 Alabama (13-0)
#2 Clemson (11-2)
#3 Ohio State (11-1)
#4 Wisconsin (11-2)

That's right, two Big Ten teams.  Wisconsin is in as the Big Ten champ, and Ohio State is in as the best one-loss team on the board in a sea of 2+ loss teams.  
Colorado doesn't make it with three losses, Oklahoma State doesn't make it because Big 12.
Shoulda run the table, Tom Herman.

First four out: Louisville (11-1), Oklahoma State (10-2), Colorado (10-3), Western Michigan (13-0)

*************************************

NY6 Bowls - 

Orange		Louisville		Michigan
Cotton		Western Michigan	Washington
Rose		Colorado		Penn State
Sugar		Oklahoma State		Florida

*************************************

Mere Mortal Bowls - 

Alamo		Oklahoma		Washington State
Arizona		Idaho			UTEP+
Armed Forces	Navy			Northwestern+
Bahamas		UCF			Eastern Michigan
Belk		North Carolina		Auburn
Birmingham	Tulsa			Ole Miss
Boca Raton	Memphis			Old Dominion
Cactus		Baylor			Arizona State
Camellia	Central Michigan	Appalachian State
Citrus		Georgia			Virginia Tech
Cure		SMU			Arkansas State
Foster Farms	Maryland		Stanford
Dollar General	Toledo			Troy
Hawaii		Western Kentucky	Air Force
Heart of Dallas	Louisiana Tech		Tulane+
Holiday		Minnesota		USC
Independence	South Carolina		Army+
Las Vegas	Boise State		California
Liberty		Kansas State		UCLA+
Miami Beach	South Florida		Ohio U
Military	Temple			Syracuse+
Music City	Iowa			Tennessee
New Mexico	Middle Tennessee	New Mexico
New Orleans	Southern Miss		Louisiana-Lafayette
Outback		Nebraska		Arkansas
Pinstripe	Pittsburgh		Indiana
Poinsettia	BYU			San Diego State
Potato		Wyoming			Hawaii+
QuickLane	Wake Forest		UNC Charlotte*
Russell Ath	Florida State		West Virginia
St. Petersburg	Houston			Boston College
Sun		Miami 			Utah
TaxSlayer	Georgia Tech		LSU
Texas		Texas			Texas A&M

* denotes non-slotted teams
+ denotes 5-7 teams in via APR.  

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

This is probably my second-to-last run of the bowl predictor since this is the last full week of football (not already :( ) :

pre:
ACC - Clemson (12-1) over Virginia Tech (9-4) - No change.  

Big 10 - Wisconsin (11-2) over Penn State (9-4) - No change.

Big 12 - Oklahoma State (10-2) - No change.

Pac 12 - Washington (12-1) over USC (9-4) - USC wins via Utah beating Colorado.

SEC - Alabama (13-0) over Florida (9-4) - No change.



AAC - Navy (11-2) over Temple (8-5) - No change.

CUSA - Western Kentucky (10-3) over Louisiana Tech (9-4) - No change.

MAC - Western Michigan (13-0) over Ohio (8-5) - No change.

MWC - Wyoming (10-3) over San Diego State (10-3) - Wyoming is a slight underdog in the MWC championship game.

Sun Belt - Arkansas State (8-4) - Arkansas State hasn't lost a Sun Belt conference game in two calendar years.  #themoreyouknow

*************************************

Playoffs - 

#1 Alabama (13-0)
#2 Clemson (12-1)
#3 Wisconsin (11-2)
#4 Washington (12-1)

First four out: Ohio State (12-1), Michigan (10-2), Penn State (10-3), Louisville (10-2)

*************************************

NY6 Bowls -

Orange		Louisville		Michigan
Cotton		Western Michigan	Ohio State
Rose		Penn State		USC
Sugar		Oklahoma State		Florida

*************************************

Mere Mortal Bowls - 

Alamo		Oklahoma		Washington State
Arizona		Colorado State		Idaho
Armed Forces	Navy			Texas
Bahamas		UCF			Eastern Michigan
Belk		North Carolina		LSU
Birmingham	Memphis			Kentucky
Boca Raton	Tulsa			Old Dominion
Cactus		Baylor			California
Camellia	Central Michigan	Appalachian State
Citrus		Louisville		Texas A&M
Cure		South Alabama^		North Texas*
Foster Farms	Indiana			Utah
Dollar General	Toledo			Troy
Hawaii		Western Kentucky	Boise State
Heart of Dallas	Middle Tennessee	Hawaii^
Holiday		Minnesota		Colorado
Independence	Georgia Tech		Ole Miss
Las Vegas	Wyoming			Arizona State
Liberty		Kansas State		Georgia
Miami Beach	Houston			Ohio U
Military	Temple			Wake Forest
Music City	Iowa			Tennessee
New Mexico	UTSA			New Mexico
New Orleans	Louisiana Tech		Arkansas State
Outback		Nebraska		Auburn
Pinstripe	Miami (FL)		Northwestern
Poinsettia	BYU			San Diego State
Potato		Miami (OH)		Air Force
QuickLane	Maryland		Army^
Russell Ath	Virginia Tech		West Virginia
St. Petersburg	South Florida		Boston College
Sun		Pittsburgh		Stanford
TaxSlayer	Florida State		South Carolina
Texas		TCU			Arkansas

* denotes non-slotted bowl-eligible teams
^ denotes teams in via a 6-6 record with two FCS victories, or with a 6-7 record (guess who).  These guys get slotted after the *s.

No 5-7 teams this time.

dirty shrimp money fucked around with this message at 14:39 on Nov 22, 2016

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

DJExile posted:

I would laugh forever at the tears of OSU fans if they not only missed the playoffs but had to play a drat MAC team in the cotton.

I think their only route to the playoffs involves Colorado upsetting Washington and the committee deciding whichever Oklahoma wins Bedlam (and thereby the Big 12) isn't worthy for Big 12 reasons. Otherwise, if Michigan wins you basically swap them into the playoffs and Wisconsin into the Rose Bowl, and Penn State gets the Cotton...unless they go with the loser of Bedlam. Or a brand name SEC team.

The even funnier outcome is swapping the Orange and Cotton Bowls and Western Michigan plays Michigan Michigan.

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

Final run of moon poll prediction:

pre:
Conference Winners - 

ACC - Clemson (12-1) over Virginia Tech (9-4) - No change.
Big 10 - Wisconsin (11-2) over Penn State (10-3) - No change.
Big 12 - Oklahoma (10-2) - No change.
Pac 12 - Washington (12-1) over Colorado (10-3) - Since Colorado obvs beat Utah.
SEC - Alabama (13-0) over Florida (8-5) - No change.

AAC - Navy (11-2) over Temple (9-4) - No change.
CUSA - Western Kentucky (10-3) over Louisiana Tech (8-5) - No change.
MAC - Western Michigan (13-0) over Ohio (8-5) - No change.
MWC - San Diego State (10-3) over Wyoming (8-5) - SDSU jumped to favorites with the Wyoming loss.
SunBelt - Troy (10-2) - This implies a three-way tie for first, I'm just putting Troy here.  It's irrelevant to bowl placement anyway.

*************************************

Playoffs - 

#1 Alabama (13-0)
#2 Clemson (12-1)
#3 Wisconsin (11-2)
#4 Washington (12-1)


First four out: Ohio State (12-1), Michigan (10-2), Penn State (10-3), Oklahoma (10-2)

*************************************

NY6 Bowls - 

Orange		Louisville		Ohio State
Cotton		Western Michigan	Michigan
Rose		Colorado		Penn State
Sugar		Oklahoma		Florida


*************************************

Mere Mortal Bowls - 

Alamo		Oklahoma State		USC
Arizona		Colorado State		Idaho
Armed Forces	Navy			Middle Tennessee*
Bahamas		Eastern Michigan	North Texas+
Belk		Georgia Tech		Tennessee
Birmingham	Tulsa			Vanderbilt
Boca Raton	Memphis			Old Dominion
Cactus		Baylor			California
Camellia	Central Michigan	Appalachian State
Citrus		Virginia Tech		Auburn
Cure		UCF			South Alabama^
Foster Farms	Northwestern		Stanford
Dollar General	Toledo			Troy
Hawaii		Western Kentucky	Boise State
Heart of Dallas	Louisiana Tech		Army+
Holiday		Minnesota		Washington State
Independence	Boston College		South Carolina
Las Vegas	San Diego State		Arizona State
Liberty		Kansas State		Arkansas
Miami Beach	Houston			Ohio U
Military	Temple			Wake Forest
Music City	Iowa			Kentucky
New Mexico	UTSA			New Mexico
New Orleans	Southern Miss		Arkansas State
Outback		Nebraska		LSU
Pinstripe	Pittsburgh		Maryland
Poinsettia	BYU			Wyoming
Potato		Miami (OH)		Air Force
QuickLane	Indiana			Hawaii+
Russell Ath.	North Carolina		West Virginia
St. Petersburg	South Florida		NC State
Sun		Florida State		Utah
TaxSlayer	Miami (FL)		Georgia
Texas		TCU			Texas A&M

* denotes non-slotted bowl-eligible teams
^ denotes teams in via a 6-6 record with two FCS victories.  These guys get slotted after the *s.
+ denotes 5-7 teams eligible via APR

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

:unsmith:
https://twitter.com/EMUAthletics/status/803572257159348224

dirty shrimp money fucked around with this message at 15:46 on Nov 29, 2016

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

North Texas is locked in to the Heart of Dallas Bowl, so congrats to them for scoring a close by homeish game.

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dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001


How is that even possible?

e: Wait, it's obvious. The casinos hold all the cards in Vegas, and the Fertitta family has casinos. ESPN gets a solid G5 bowl, and the casinos get their man.

gently caress it, free comps for all Coogs at the Golden Nugget!

dirty shrimp money fucked around with this message at 16:48 on Dec 4, 2016

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