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JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes
Finished work and am bored af so I'm going to try to figure out this year's all-stars. Keep in mind this year the fan vote is 50%, media is 25%, and current players is 25% so there might be some unknown fuckery that comes up:

I'll start with the West, since it's a bit more straightforward there:
Locks (barring injury):
1. Kevin Durant
2. Kawhi Leonard
3. Anthony Davis
4. Russell Westbrook
5. James Harden
6. Stephen Curry
7. Chris Paul

Likely:
8. Marc Gasol
9. Klay Thompson

Given how well Memphis has performed even with Conley out and the big jump in stats Gasol has had this year I'm pretty sure he's in, but I wouldn't call it a definite lock like the previous seven. You could quibble with Klay being likely but the Warriors are getting at least 3 All-Stars and Klay has been getting hype from the 60 point game, fitting in with the new system, and overall playing well. Coaches will vote him in. That leaves 3 spots for:

Borderline:
DeMarcus Cousins, Draymond Green, Damian Lillard, Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert, DeAndre Jordan, Karl-Anthony Towns

Cousins should be likely since the idea of a guy averaging 29 ppg and 10.4 reb missing the all-star game is absurd, but coaches do not like Cousins and if they have a good reason not to vote for him, they wouldn't. And the competition for these last 3 spots is going to be tough. Lillard is also putting up great stats but could be punished for the Blazers going up in flames. The Jazz deserve an all-star but it's not clear-cut who deserves it between Hayward and Gobert, so what I predict is going to happen is Cousins, Green, and Lillard[ all make it and the Jazz get snubbed because coaches spit their vote of the one Jazz All-Star between Hayward and Gobert.



The East is a bit more tricky, so we need an additional section....:
Locks:
1. Lebron James
2. Kyrie Irving
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo
4. Kevin Love
5. DeMar DeRozan
6. Kyle Lowry

If the Raptors crash over the next month, you could take one of those two off but as of now I think DeRozan and Lowry should both be comfortably in.

Banana Boat:
7. Carmelo Anthony
8. Dwyane Wade

Melo really should be borderline and Wade shouldn't even be in consideration but they are very popular and were voted All-Star starters last year. The fan vote is only 50% this year, but who knows if current players and media are going to vote any differently. If we pencil them in, then as we will see in the borderline section, some guys are going to get screwed.

Likely:
9. Jimmy Butler

Having a great year in a big market; if the Bulls keep imploding over the next month you could see him move over to the borderline section but I still think he'll get in. Note that he's a frontcourt player. That leaves...

Borderline:
Isaiah Thomas, Kemba Walker, John Wall, Paul George, Kristaps Porzingis, Paul Millsap, Al Horford, Andre Drummond, Hassan Whiteside

Note that you can only have 6 guards max on the all-star team, so if Wade gets in only two of the Thomas/Walker/Wall trio can make it. If I had to pick three of these guys, it would be Thomas, Walker, and George. John Wall is secretly having a really great year but Washington has been mediocre and depressing so I think the team success of Thomas and Walker's teams will get them in over him. However it's possible that the Wizards surge and/or the Hornets slide back into the East morass, which would strengthen Wall's case vs. Walker's. The Pacers have also been disappointing but I think George is just regarded as a better player than the rest of the frontcourt guys. You could talk me into Porzingis hype and New York cachet getting the Unicorn in though. If Wade doesn't make it, Wall probably takes his spot, and if Melo doesn't make it either Porzingis or Millsap makes it.

JesusSinfulHands fucked around with this message at 16:02 on Dec 30, 2016

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JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes

Tae posted:

Paul George is back to being a forward with CJ Miles in the starting line-up. Or maybe not, I remember him randomly playing PF last year. And while they did away with Centers, people still gravitate towards having an actual center for their votes and Gasol is basically having a career year while effectively leading the Grizzlies.

I could also see KAT chomping at his first all star, his boxscore year has been pretty good and people have been crowning him as a generational talent and tend to vote for their bias.

Thing is the league perception is that the Timberwolves are super disappointing, and Towns doesn't quite have the insane stats that Davis and Cousins have. For that reason I find it extremely difficult to see Towns getting in over Cousins, Green, Lillard, or a Utah guy. If the Timberwolves surge into the 8th seed conversation soon we could reconsider though.

Redgrendel2001 posted:

If you're going to consider Drummond and Whiteside, then Embiid seriously has to be in the running.

I don't see any scenario where Embiid makes it ...he's only played 21 games with limited minutes for the worst team in the NBA. We'll probably see him in the rookie game and Big Man skills challenge instead. Drummond and Whiteside are also fringe candidates as it is unless some coaches really want to vote for centers.

If it makes you feel better I just voted for The Process though :heysexy:

JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes
I think Brown is getting a pretty bad rap. His lineups are largely the same as Kerr's regular season lineups, especially the Livingston or Clark/Thompson/Iguodala/Green/West start of 2nd lineup that everyone has been criticizing. It worked for them in the first 8 games of the playoffs, then was predictably ineffectual in this Game 1 but I don't consider it to be some unforgivable sin to roll with a lineup until it stops working. After this game is the time to switch it up so that either Durant or Curry is in at all times. Also, let's not act like Steve "Strength in Numbers" "I play Anderson Varejao in Game 7 of the NBA Finals" Kerr wouldn't have done the same thing.

The Warriors' lack of pick and rolls in the first half of this game is also largely a continuation of the regular season. Warriors fans were complaining all year that they needed to run more pick and rolls and that the motion offense would struggle against great defenses who could effectively switch, manhandle off the ball and not get lost on backcuts. I've got no doubt in my mind Kerr would have rolled with the same crap gameplan that the Warriors rolled out for this Game 1.

It's pretty clear that every second Gasol is in the game Curry needs to attack him in pick and roll though. Gasol might be unplayable and Aldridge has to suck it up and play center, him in with Kawhi, Simmons, Ginobili, and Green is a great defensive lineup that can somewhat effectively slow the Warriors.

I still think the main problem for the Spurs is going to be offense though. Role players like Green and Mills are going to struggle against the Warriors length and athleticism, Aldridge is not going to dominate his 1v1 matchup with Green enough that the Warriors will bother to send help, and Kawhi can't do it all himself, especially with a sprained ankle.

JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes

Rick posted:

I've written so many defenses of Mike Brown that I won't do it again, but basically the only actual bad job he did was Cleveland 2.0 and every other time he was pretty much the victim of some other circumstance.

The really interesting thing is that the Spurs actually were fine playing Gasol when the Warriors tried some PnR action early, like they had clearly watched so much tape of the Warriors and picked out so many of their tendencies that they were just squashing these plays. But once Kawhi went out they just stopped successfully predicting the plays and then Pau becomes a pretty big liability in the PnR.

I get the sense people already have their mind made up that Brown is a bad and incompetent coach and won't attribute anything the Warriors do well to him, while attributing bad things to him being in charge. Maybe that perception will change if the Warriors win it all while he's acting head coach.

I don't quite agree with your characterization of what happened. The first four plays of this clip at the start of the 3rd was basically "go after Pau" while Kawhi was in the game:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buo3wN-ncoQ&t=112s

JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes

NickRoweFillea posted:

This but Memphis. It's simple geography folks

It should be Minnesota tbh, they get way screwed by geography and are more natural rivals with the other teams in the Midwest. At least Memphis is close to the other southwest teams

JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes
Trading a cost-controlled 12th overall pick for a "win-now veteran" is the exact kind of terrible move that a short-term oriented coach/president would make. Giving your coach control over basketball operations should never happen, even if the coach has a stellar reputation like SVG or Thibs prior to their hires.

JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes

E2M2 posted:

I mean they kinda are light-years ahead of the league. They're breaking so much that goons want to burn down the league so that another super team didn't happen

:smug:

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JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes

Rasta_Al posted:

I honestly think that Klay is worth more than Curry down the line for his defensive ability, and hope he'll get respect if he chooses to walk.

Not correct, check the on/off numbers for the past 5 seasons and every year the Warriors are outscored/the offense completely falls apart (even this year) when Curry is on the bench, while Klay has never been close to Curry in terms of net rating over their entire careers in GS.

Warriors won it all! I'm going to enjoy this championship and all the success we've had while we have it, since being at the top is fleeting and it'll come to an end eventually. But for now...light years ahead baby. Here's to 3 or 4 more ships :getin:

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