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A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Sorgrid posted:

- Marion Maréchal-Le Pen is the niece of Marine and is basically a mix of Rick Santorum and Ted Cruz. A bit more conservative than her aunt regarding reproductive rights.
Isn't she also in favor of redefining the party as an explicitly economically liberal one, where her aunt keeps it more populist?

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Scrub-Niggurath
Nov 27, 2007

so le pens winning right?

Fiction
Apr 28, 2011

Scrub-Niggurath posted:

so le pens winning right?

actually fillon was looking to be the weakest candidate against her since she's basically Third Position on social services whereas he wanted to cut them all

macron is the most likely to overtake him and has a good shot of beating her. the left is still split among two candidates but Hamon has a good chance as well.

twoday
May 4, 2005



C-SPAM Times best-selling author
Polls show a marked decrease in support for the PVV (Dutch nationalist party) since Trump took power. (Keep in mind that Dutch polls are useless garbage.)

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

lol if France allows disgusting sexual affairs between their politicians, but minor corruption will put the nazi in power

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

Jeremy Corbyn doesn't think they're 'born this way'.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
le penis ftw

The Puppet Master
Apr 9, 2005

Would you fuck me? I'd fuck me. I'd fuck me hard.




so who is going to form a govt? Will it be an anti wilders govt between D66, VVD, PvDA, and CDA?

SixFigureSandwich
Oct 30, 2004
Exciting Lemon

The Puppet Master posted:

so who is going to form a govt? Will it be an anti wilders govt between D66, VVD, PvDA, and CDA?

Either that or we do a Belgium and just not have a government for a year and then do new elections

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007



:smugdon:

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon

That's the first round, we already know she's going to win it (with about 25% of the vote I believe, Macron is like 23%). The second round is what matters, whoever against her is going to get the votes from the left, center and right handily.

I guess this would be bad if we had a retarded electoral system lol

also more proof france outside of paris and brittany is poo poo (and pays de la loire i guess??)

extremely triggered/pleased that they forgot Corsica, CORSICA NAZIONE

Kurtofan has issued a correction as of 23:20 on Feb 16, 2017

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Kurtofan posted:

That's the first round, we already know she's going to win it (with about 25% of the vote I believe, Macron is like 23%). The second round is what matters, whoever against her is going to get the votes from the left, center and right handily.

I guess this would be bad if we had a retarded electoral system lol

also more proof france outside of paris and brittany is poo poo (and pays de la loire i guess??)

extremely triggered/pleased that they forgot Corsica, CORSICA NAZIONE
The right is going to decide that 5 years of the extreme left running the country is enough, and that voting for a right wing candidate rather than a centrist like Fillon is needed to balance things out.

Fallen Hamprince
Nov 12, 2016

A Buttery Pastry posted:

centrist like Fillon

lmao

isnt fillon to the right of sarko?

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Fallen Hamprince posted:

lmao

isnt fillon to the right of sarko?
Center-left Sarko.

get that OUT of my face
Feb 10, 2007

isn't fillon a catholic reactionary who loves maggie thatcher? that doesn't sound "center-left" at all

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

get that OUT of my face posted:

isn't fillon a catholic reactionary who loves maggie thatcher? that doesn't sound "center-left" at all
I could've been clearer. "Center-left Sarko" is gonna be Sarkozy's new nickname, now that the Overton window has moved.

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon
love death

poty
Jun 21, 2008

虹はどこで終わるのですか? あなたの魂の中で、または地平線で?

Kurtofan posted:

That's the first round, we already know she's going to win it (with about 25% of the vote I believe, Macron is like 23%). The second round is what matters, whoever against her is going to get the votes from the left, center and right handily.

Here is a fun Sunday read

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-17/hamon-and-melenchon-weigh-united-left-bid-for-french-presidency

the worst possible scenario, so guaranteed to happen posted:

That would leave voters a choice between Le Pen and either Hamon or Melenchon, neither of whom is seen as market-friendly. It might also broaden support for the anti-euro, anti-immigration Le Pen.

A runoff against either Hamon or Melenchon “is the most favorable situation for Marine Le Pen to win,” Bruno Jeanbart, an OpinionWay pollster, said in an interview.

“For a candidate from the left to win he needs, at minimum, to win as many votes from the right in the second round as Marine Le Pen. If it’s Emmanuel Macron a transfer of votes from the right is easy to imagine. If it’s a candidate much further to the left anchored in a radical program, that’s a different story.”

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon
Hamon Overdrive

YF-23
Feb 17, 2011

My god, it's full of cat!


I feel Le Pen would have an easier time against Fillon given the scandals that have been popping up with him.

cargo cult
Aug 28, 2008

by Reene
so is france going nazi or rather more nazi than it already is ?

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon

YF-23 posted:

I feel Le Pen would have an easier time against Fillon given the scandals that have been popping up with him.

nah, the left electorate is way more likely to vote for the corrupt right ("vote for the crook" back in 2002).

the right is less likely to vote for a left wing candidate

Kurtofan has issued a correction as of 14:44 on Feb 19, 2017

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon
here's a cool poll



it's a poll that shows how people who voted in 2012 are voting this year

on the left are the 2012 candidates, on the right are the 2017 candidates

(ignore Joly/Jadot and Dupont Aignan they're the useless candidates for the greens and a minor right wing party, they do like 2 percent each)

just a reminder

Mélenchon far left

Hollande president "Socialist" (centrist

Hamon socialist (left) candidate

Bayrou centre right

Macron centrist

Sarkozy right wing

Fillon rightwing

Le Pen TRUMP

Kurtofan has issued a correction as of 14:57 on Feb 19, 2017

Donkwich
Feb 28, 2011


Grimey Drawer
melenchon would have won

The Brown Menace
Dec 24, 2010

Now comes in all colors.


Kurtofan posted:

nah, the left electorate is way more likely to vote for the corrupt right ("vote for the crook" back in 2002).

the right is less likely to vote for a left wing candidate

so same as it always was

Forums Terrorist
Dec 8, 2011

Donkwich posted:

melenchon would have won

yeah that sounds a lot like the argument for hillary and, well,

Forums Terrorist
Dec 8, 2011

also, ireland will be having an election soon maybe. no one cares because it's just going to be fianna fail and fine gail swapping places again

same as it ever was

kibaces
Jul 11, 2016

Forums Terrorist posted:

also, ireland will be having an election soon maybe. no one cares because it's just going to be fianna fail and fine gail swapping places again

same as it ever was

What happened? Did the FF FG coalition collapse?

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

I just saw a poll in which Macron beats Le Pen in a hypothetical runoff 58-42, but the margin is half of what previous polling margins indicated

Worst timeline continues?

Fallen Hamprince
Nov 12, 2016

Yossarian-22 posted:

I just saw a poll in which Macron beats Le Pen in a hypothetical runoff 58-42, but the margin is half of what previous polling margins indicated

Worst timeline continues?

i'm gonna guess a 2-round electoral system isn't great for polling noise so i'm not making GBS threads my pants just yet

get that OUT of my face
Feb 10, 2007

that 58-42 margin is rapidly dwindling and le pen is the only candidate whose numbers are improving, because french voters want security

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon
That Algeria war comment probably hasnt helped (he called it a crime against humanity, not exactly the kind of thing that gets votes on the right, or the left for that matter)

Kurtofan has issued a correction as of 07:08 on Feb 21, 2017

get that OUT of my face
Feb 10, 2007

Kurtofan posted:

That Algeria war comment probably hasnt helped (he called it a crime against humanity, not exactly the kind of thing that gets votes on the right, or the left for that matter)
i got polling information from this article which says as much

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

get that OUT of my face posted:

that 58-42 margin is rapidly dwindling and le pen is the only candidate whose numbers are improving, because french voters want security

ffs

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon
i can't wait to be as secure as the united states

The Brown Menace
Dec 24, 2010

Now comes in all colors.


What is Michel houelembecxq's take on the situation

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon

The Brown Menace posted:

What is Michel houelembecxq's take on the situation

isalm bad

Sassy Sasquatch
Feb 28, 2013

Kurtofan posted:

That Algeria war comment probably hasnt helped (he called it a crime against humanity, not exactly the kind of thing that gets votes on the right, or the left for that matter)

Heh, the one time the dude actually speaks the truth he gets called out on it. That spineless grub even apologized for it. :laffo:

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Sassy Sasquatch posted:

Heh, the one time the dude actually speaks the truth he gets called out on it. That spineless grub even apologized for it. :laffo:
He should just have clarified that he meant that it was a crime against humanity that the Algerians started that war.

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Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon
i know a lepen voter who converted to islam after his wife left him

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