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Forums Terrorist posted:i guess it's to tarnish the socialists but why. none of those people matter. RT doesn't know what to do with itself when the only two candidates who can win are both acceptable to the Kremlin, I guess? Unless the French rediscover their love of Third Wayism or go Full Mélenchon (who as far as I can tell is kinda climbing in polls but not at a rate that would put him in the running for the runoff), France is either going to go Le Pen or Le Pen lite.
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Jan 26, 2017 03:46
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Badger of Basra posted:so is the actual communist not sufficiently anti-establishment enough The communist party has spent the past decade or so burning all it's anti-establishment cred in the hopes of becoming a more viable coalition partner for parties like PS, who in turn spent the past few years burning their "left leaning but not too left" cred to become a standard "Socialist in name only" party.
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Mar 11, 2017 17:00
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get that OUT of my face posted:sorry to hear that, does it look like they're gonna fall to le pen There are stronger signs France goes LePen than there were Netherlands was going to go Wilders, and without some kind of major upset she's likely going to be in a second round against a neoliberal. Otoh the numbers still say she doesn't win the second round, and the first round should be a good litmus test to see if the polls are under/overrepresenting her support so we'll get a bit of warning if things are gonna go real bad, but even if she loses it's gonna be bad.
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Mar 17, 2017 21:49
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Thatim posted:I think we need to put this in perspective. When you say bad, do you mean 'bad', or US bad? LePen has been playing the economic populist game the strongest of the far right populists so if she goes the route of "bringing back European welfare state but more racist" then I think she has a good chance of turning FN into a major political force in France for years to come. And if she loses, the likely winner is going to be either the scandal ridden Republican who is basically "FN only less pro-Vichy France" or the neoliberal Marcon, neither of which I'm convinced can combat the material conditions/forces that created the void FN is filling without just pandering to FN voters. So, she might not gently caress the French people as hard as Trump's loving Americans, but I can see her doing a lot to legitimize the far right nationalists as a solution to the economic anxieties of Europeans and even if she loses I fear the next election will be the same as this one only with LePen up ~5% more.
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Mar 18, 2017 00:42
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R. Mute posted:You have to? I think they're talking about the fact if the EU were more democratic, that would mean nations like Slovenia would become irrelevant due to tiny size/population while nations like Germany become even more important than ever now that democratic legitimization is what the EU works on. I don't think that's the only model and you can increase democratic representation without making raw population numbers the only thing that determines how much of a voice your nation gets, but I'd agree democratization doesn't automatically increase sovereignty.
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Apr 13, 2017 17:08
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Kurtofan posted:Mélenchonmentum is real Has anyone done any demographic breakdowns of the new Melenchon voters? Basically I remember people worrying that LePen had a bunch of young voters (like 1 in 5 millennials) and now I'm wondering if the Mélenchonmentum has any kind of similar young energy, or if this is some weird backwards world where the youths are trying to make a fascism and the olds are trying to make a communism.
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Apr 14, 2017 01:47
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Fullhouse posted:this seems correct given John Oliver did a French election bit and barely even mentioned Melenchon or Hamon while cheerleading Macron Hamon I can kinda understand since he peaked a bit in February but otherwise hasn't really had any momentum and hasn't even managed to come close to Fillon, but Melenchon is a really weird omission given that some polls have beating Fillon and with Macron and Le Pen's downward trends lately, I could pretty easily see an outcome of too many unenthused EM/FN voters (or some sort of last minute deal with Hamon or Poutou to get their supporters to vote FI) leading to a EM/FI or FN/FI round 2. Either way though, EM/Macron is the worst possible last bastion against fascism. Top City Homo posted:
Even if France were somehow as indoctrinated by capitalism as America is, who in the hell watched the last 5 years of French politics and walked away saying "Hollande should have acted more like an investment banker. That would have gotten him a second term."?
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Apr 18, 2017 03:00
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Fallen Hamprince posted:Fillon Good point. I keep forgetting about the "I promise to drop out if I'm criminally investigated... wait I am? w/e still not dropping." guy
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Apr 18, 2017 03:07
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I'd imagine Macron is most like Clinton in that has campaign relies entirely on the average voter being totally happy with the status quo and their only problem is the tax rate they pay on their investments, and an aesthetic dislike for out and proud bigotry and these two things alone will get them to make the effort to come out and vote. Like I know the polls don't exactly show this but my gut tells me there's no way for the first round to go other than LePen at ~26%, and then Macron and Melenchon being within a percentage of each other, with Macron heavily underperforming due to apathy.
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Apr 22, 2017 19:14
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Upside of the French election is my prediction yesterday didn't come true; I thought LePen would get 26% at least and Macron would underperform but it looks like that didn't happen at all. Polls basically predicted the result, no upset/last minute swell of support for LePen. I still think there's no way Macron wins round 2 but I'm slightly less confident in that given that it looks like LePen if anything loses support in the days running up the the vote.
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Apr 23, 2017 23:46
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Agag posted:We knew Macron sucks, but its impossible to duplicate how much Hillary sucked, so the polling was accurate this time. True. He may be as bad politically as Hillary but he at least seems to be charismatic and is running for office in a country where running up the popular vote in big states/communes/departments/etc does actually increase your chances of winning. I think Brexit and Trump happening so close together has me/folks convinced polling is dead and the far right will just win on voter excitement/turnout but every other vote post-Trump has either been as the polls predicted or had the far right under-performing (see: Netherlands).
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Apr 24, 2017 07:44
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Namarrgon posted:Dangerous talk. Dutch outcome is far from ideal. Neoliberal won, fascist second and Christian conservative that explicitly wanted to go more right wing ended third. The hopeful for actual positive development is expected to get a pity-ministry in the new order. Oh absolutely, Wilders didn't underperform in the sense that the fascists did badly in the Dutch elections, just that their victory wasn't as large as had been predicted. The neolibs won while still bleeding seats, the Christian conservative party might find itself in a ruling coalition somehow, and while GroenLinks did kinda do really well relative to their past performance, the biggest parties in Netherlands are still dominated by either the lovely status quo that's clearly losing ground fast, and different flavors of more right wing alternatives. I only would say Wilders "underperformed" in the sense that "the polls said he'd gain X seats and become the biggest party. He gained far fewer than X and is not the largest party". It still means something but not some big win against fascism in Europe. Related to that, this Washington Post Hot Take is exactly the wrong Take on France/Netherlands: https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...60e8_story.html Macron’s strong finish in the French election shows populist wave may be ebbing posted:After years in which the E.U. was the favorite foil for ascendant politicians on the continent, the 28-nation club may be making a comeback despite Brexit and President Trump’s euroskepticism. The Netherlands’ staunchly pro-European Green Left party quadrupled its support in elections last month. Former European Parliament president Martin Schulz is surging in polls ahead of September elections in Germany.
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Apr 26, 2017 03:03
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